Adaptive thermal comfort learning for optimized HVAC control

Abstract

A facility providing systems and methods for managing and optimizing thermal comfort is provided. The facility is a software algorithm that intelligently detects the thermal comfort preferences of residential smart thermostat users, where a user's “comfort preference” is defined to refer to an estimate of a measurement of the user's comfort across varying values of some set of exogenous factors, including but not limited to indoor temperature, the time of day, the day of the week, and weather conditions. This facility encompasses the use of this “comfort preference” for the creation of an optimal schedule of setpoints for a residential thermostat which is configured to optimize some objective, including potentially user comfort, energy efficiency, load shift, or cost.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

The present technology generally relates to systems and methods for managing and optimizing thermal comfort.

BACKGROUND

As energy resources become scarcer, and as people become more environmentally conscious, their desire to optimize energy consumption and reduce costs has increased. Although there have been many attempts to improve energy conservation and reduce energy costs, these attempts do not typically satisfy the demands or goals of customers and/or utilizes or coordinates between the goals of those customers and utilities. For example, demand management systems (direct load control systems) enable utilities to essentially turn off end-user devices (e.g., air conditioning units) when demand peaks to, for example, avoid blackouts or rolling brownouts. However, end-users may not receive notice of the shutoff and may find themselves uncomfortable at inopportune times. As another example, a user can use a thermostat to create a temperature schedule for a building, so that the user remains comfortable while occupying the building. However, the schedules may not take into account the cost of energy, thereby ignoring any potential for cost savings to the user, the utility, or both in a market that can have volatile pricing. Furthermore, while the “Internet of Things” has created a wealth of sensors and other devices within various energy systems to measure both the energy consumption of the system and the environment within which the system operates, these sensors do not often communicate effectively.

Residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are typically controlled very simply with closed-loop control algorithms that dutifully follow simple rules set by, for example, a homeowner, building manager, etc. Typically being the largest energy consumer in a building, the efficient operation of the HVAC system is critical to reducing energy cost and consumption. Programmable thermostats have long been thought of as a solution to this problem. However, building owners and managers have little knowledge about how best to program their HVAC systems. Particularly, owners may not be able to accurately estimate the boundaries of their comfortable temperature range when programming their thermostats.

Some solutions are already available on the market for self-programmable thermostats which seek to promote energy efficiency and comfort, primarily from Nest Labs Inc. For example, Nest Labs' patent “Energy Efficiency Promoting Schedule Learning Algorithms For Intelligent Thermostat” (U.S. Pat. No. 9,298,196 B2) seeks to promote energy efficiency by resetting a user's temperature to a more energy efficient temperature after the duration of a manual intervention with the thermostat. Other conventional systems make incremental adjustments from an originally programmed schedule towards a more energy efficient schedule, including responses to user feedback either positive or negative to the adjustments. However, these systems do not attempt to learn the boundaries of the user comfort preferences to inform how this energy efficient temperature is set.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an environment in which the facility may operate.

FIG. 2 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a comfort component.

FIG. 3 is a table diagram illustrating historical data.

FIG. 4 is a table diagram illustrating comfort surface data.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a generate training data component.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of an update comfort surface component.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a generate plan component.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The present technology provides systems and methods that overcome drawbacks experienced in the prior art and that provide other benefits. For example, the present technology provides one or more control solutions that does not rely on single temperatures for comfort levels but rather a range of temperatures for comfort levels. This would greatly improve the ability of a thermostat to provide efficient thermostat control while maintaining user comfort and optimizing other objectives (e.g., total cost, energy efficiency, etc.). A comfort-based energy control facility (the “comfort facility” or “facility”) providing systems and methods for controlling an HVAC system in accordance with an individual's (or group of individuals') demonstrated comfort preferences is disclosed. In some embodiments, the facility constructs a comfort surface, which provides a measure of a user's comfort under corresponding conditions, and uses the comfort surface to create a plan for controlling an HVAC system, such as a set of inputs or control instructions for a thermostat. The plan may, for example, define one or more temperature setpoints within the range of comfortable temperatures for controlling temperature within one or more zones (e.g., rooms or areas within a building) over the course of a day, week, month, etc.

In constructing the plan, the facility is configured to estimate the level of comfort and/or discomfort that one or more individuals (e.g., users) will experience during execution of the plan. In this manner, the facility can account for comfort preferences in addition to other aspects of energy management, such as energy costs, demand, etc. Accurately estimating user comfort bounds (i.e., range of comfortable temperatures or “comfort range”) based on user estimated preferences and user interactions as a function of comfort and/or discomfort levels substantively improves the operations of an HVAC system as it (a) provides an estimate of user comfort across a range of internal temperatures, and under various conditions, which can be used as an input to any optimization to programming an HVAC system, and (b) potentially discovers a wider or different range of comfortable temperatures or HVAC configurations, including temperatures that could improve the optimized solution, which the user did not originally program into or otherwise identify as being within their comfortable range. Thus, the disclosed facility provides improvement to HVAC control technology in terms of efficiency, user comfort, and potential cost savings.

When the facility is first installed or enabled in a building (which includes a house, room, suite, or other inhabitable structure), initial information about the estimated comfort preference of the building is generated based on input provided by the user and/or generic information on the comfort preferences of a typical user. After installation, manual interactions of the user with the thermostat are observed, where interactions may refer to any type of manual or user generated change made to the thermostat's settings. The characteristics of that interaction, including but not limited to the extent to which that interaction changes the state of the HVAC system, are used to determine if the interaction is indicative of a user's discomfort and the nature of that discomfort (e.g., too hot or too cold). This data is used to categorize regular time intervals (e.g., hourly) into “comfortable” and “uncomfortable,” whereby a time period is considered comfortable if no such discomfort interaction occurred within the time period and uncomfortable if such an interaction did occur. In addition to collecting information on these interactions passively, the facility may also attempt to actively prompt user interactions with the thermostat through temperature changes, where these temperature changes may be tailored towards achieving a particular objective (e.g., cost savings, energy efficiency, load shift, etc.).

Besides recording the timing and nature of these user interactions, the facility can also observe temperatures and other exogenous factors, such as outdoor temperature, time of day, day of week, user-designated sleep periods, user-designated home periods, occupancy, seasonal information, actual or forecasted weather conditions, etc., during these time periods. Estimates of a user's comfort preferences at unique combinations of temperature and exogenous factors can then be estimated based on the observation of estimated comfort levels during the periods when that combination of features is present, generating the user's comfort surface. These estimates may also be augmented by observations when similar combinations of features are present, in a degree related to this similarity, where “similarity” refers to some function capturing the degree of difference between two sets of features. This produces estimates of a user's comfort preferences under all previously observed conditions as well as under similar or related conditions, including potentially more energy efficient temperatures that the user may not have originally programmed or otherwise identified as being comfortable. It is noted that the facility can produce a comfort surface, which depends on, among other exogenous factors, the time of day. A comfortable range of temperatures for a user for one time period (e.g., between 5 p.m. to 10 p.m.) may be different than the comfortable range of temperatures for the user during a different time period (e.g., 11 p.m. to 5 a.m.). Therefore, once the comfort surface is defined, that surface can be used to select a daily schedule of setpoints in accordance with these time-varying comfort preferences. The facility can then generate a plan and initiate the appropriate temperature adjustments to the user's setpoint schedule. Under the new setpoint schedule, the facility can again monitor user interactions, and in some embodiments, update the user's comfort surface to generate the next setpoint schedule if necessary. The facility may iterate these steps multiple times to identify a user's true and/or wider comfort range in conjunction with meeting particular objectives.

In some embodiments, the facility may begin by constructing or initializing a surface and comfort range for each of one or more individual users. A comfort surface represents, for each of a number of combinations of conditions (e.g., indoor temperature, outside temperature, time of day, day of week, etc.) and for each of a number of HVAC control settings (e.g., thermostat setpoint settings, fan settings, etc.), a data structure or functional form (e.g., a probability distribution) that provides a link between the conditions and a measurement of comfort. The measurement of comfort can comprise rankings, numeric ratings, direct user feedback, probability distributions, or point estimate probabilities. In some embodiments, the measurement of comfort can also be a functional form. In some embodiments, points on the comfort surface can be represented by parameters of a probability distribution, such as a beta distribution.

In other embodiments, the comfort surface can be defined over a continuous set of points, jointly distributed according to a multivariate probability distribution, such as a multivariate Gaussian distribution. In other embodiments, the measurement of comfort can be a point estimate of probabilities that a particular user is or would be comfortable across discretized points on the comfort surface. It is noted that a point estimate of probabilities can be derived from the parameters of the probability distribution (e.g., beta distribution or Gaussian distribution). For example, the facility may calculate the median or mean of the probability distribution under certain conditions (e.g., indoor temperature, time of day, etc.). As a first example, a comfort surface for one user, where the measurement of comfort is defined as a point estimate probability, may indicate that when the outside temperature is 45 degrees Fahrenheit (° F.) and it is 5 p.m. on a Wednesday, that there is a 20% chance that the user would be comfortable (i.e., an 80% chance that the user would not be comfortable or would experience discomfort) if the thermostat were set to 64° F., a 30% chance if the thermostat were set to 65° F., a 40% chance if the thermostat were set to 66° F., a 50% chance if the thermostat were set to 67° F., an 84% chance if the thermostat were set to 68° F., an 80% chance if the thermostat were set to 69° F., a 75% chance if the thermostat were set to 70° F., a 50% chance if the thermostat were set to 72° F., a 30% chance if the thermostat were set to 73° F., and a 0% chance if the thermostat were set below 64° F. or above 73° F.

As a second example, the comfort surface for the same user may indicate that when the outside temperature is 77° F., the humidity is 80%, and it is 2 p.m. on a weekend, that there is a 95% chance that the user would be comfortable if the thermostat were set to 67° F., an 80% chance if the thermostat were set to anywhere between 63° F. and 65° F. or 68° F. and 72° F., and a 0% chance if the thermostat were set anywhere else. In some embodiments, a user's comfort range may be selected based on this comfort surface to include temperatures in which the corresponding probability for comfort is greater than a certain percentage (e.g., default 80%).

In the first example, the user's comfort range would be defined as 68° F.-69° F. when the outside temperature is 45° F. and it is 5 p.m. on a Wednesday. In the second example, the user's comfort range would be defined as 63° F.-65° F., 67° F., and 68° F.-72° F. when the outside temperature is 77° F., the humidity is 80%, and it is 2 p.m. on a weekend. In some embodiments, the facility may initialize a comfort surface by setting each probability in the comfort surface to a predetermined value (e.g., 0%, 50%, 75%, etc.) or by setting the probabilities to values provided by a user, administrator, or another system. In some cases, the facility may use average values collected from comfort surfaces associated with other users as a way to initialize a comfort surface.

In some embodiments, the facility may derive an initial comfort surface from a user's selected comfort range or based on their programed setpoint schedule. For example, the facility may prompt a user to select a range of temperatures that the user will be comfortable under select conditions such as time of day and day of the week. The user may provide a schedule and HVAC setting preferences (e.g., a comfort range) for various segments of that schedule. The facility may then assign a comfort surface based on this range. As disclosed in embodiments of the present technology, the facility may assign a probability distribution(s), individual probabilities, numeric ratings, etc. as the comfort surface. For example, if a user inputs a comfort range of 66° F.-70° F. during evenings (e.g., 5 p.m. to 9 p.m.), the facility may assign an 80% chance that the user will be comfortable at 66° F., a 100% chance at 68° F., and an 80% chance at 70° F. during the hours of 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. In another example, if the user inputs a comfort range of 64° F. to 66° F. during a sleep block (e.g., 9 p.m. to 6 a.m.), the facility may assign an 80% chance that the user will be comfortable at 64° F., a 100% chance at 65° F., and an 80% chance at 66° F. during the hours of 9 p.m. to 6 a.m.

In some embodiments, the system can also be configured to test the boundaries of a user's comfort range to determine a user's true and/or wider comfort range. For example, the facility may select setpoint temperatures for a given schedule from a range of temperatures that is outside of the user's currently estimated comfort range (i.e., a “test range”), thereby pushing the user's boundaries to identify a range that the user may not have previously selected but at which the user may still be comfortable. The test range can be determined by any number of algorithms not limited to a risk tolerance factor or the methods disclosed herein. The test range balances the value of obtaining new information (e.g., setting a more extreme temperature setpoint) with the value of exploiting current information (i.e., respecting the current estimates of comfort). In some embodiments, the facility may sample from the probability distribution(s) of the comfort surface to estimate the user's comfort range and generate the test range. In some other embodiments, the facility may initiate a wider test range and adjust the test range based on monitoring user feedback and calculating point estimate probabilities. In some other embodiments, the facility may determine the test range based on a risk tolerance factor. For example, with a risk tolerance factor of 40%, the facility may select a range of temperatures in which the user is estimated to be comfortable with a 48% or greater chance, given that the user's comfort range includes temperatures corresponding to an 80% or greater chance that the user will be comfortable (60% of 80%). In some embodiments, the risk tolerance may be set to a default value (e.g., 75%) and may be adjustable by a user or administrator, a utility, the facility itself, and so on.

In some embodiments, once a comfort surface, a comfort range, and a test range are discovered, the facility may select setpoints from within this range of temperatures to optimize some objective function. For example, to optimize energy efficiency, such selection may be performed by a simple heuristic such as selecting the top of the range of temperatures during periods when the user is likely to be cooling their home, or the bottom during periods when the user is likely to be heating their home. This selection may also be performed by more advanced algorithms, such as programmatic optimization as described in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 15/476,857, entitled ORCHESTRATED ENERGY, filed on Mar. 31, 2017 (which is incorporated herein by reference thereto), where the range of temperatures is provided as constraints to the algorithm. In some embodiments, the comfort surface itself may be provided as an input to the optimization without first deriving a range of temperatures from the surface. For example, the optimization can seek to maximize comfort as the objective function given the comfort surface. This would allow the optimization to be performed with respect to more complicated objectives, such as total cost, load shift, etc.

In some embodiments, the facility is configured to monitor changes (or lack thereof) to the HVAC system (e.g., changes to thermostat settings, fan settings, etc.) to assess a user's comfort level at various times. In embodiments of the present technology, a user-initiated change, which initiates a change in the state of the HVAC system, is considered an indication that the user is not comfortable, and no change indicates that the user is comfortable (or “comfortable enough”). In the current embodiment, the system can record a level of discomfort as “too hot” or “too cold” based on the change in the state of the HVAC system, but independent of the extent of the change. For example, if a user increases a thermostat setpoint from 65° F. to 75° F. when the recorded internal temperature was 70° F., then the system can prompt the HVAC system to stop cooling and record that the user was experiencing a level of discomfort as “too cold” at the recorded internal temperature of 70° F. In another example, if a user increases a thermostat setpoint from 65° F. to 67° F. when the recorded internal temperature was 66° F., then the system can similarly prompt the HVAC system to stop cooling and record that the user was experiencing a level of discomfort as “too cold” at the recorded internal temperature of 66° F. In this embodiment, the recorded level of discomfort of “too cold” is the same in both examples when the changes prompted in the state of the HVAC system are the same (e.g., stopped cooling). In some other embodiments, the facility can be configured to record the degree or extent of the change (e.g., −5° F., +7° F., −10%, +22%, etc.). For example, if the user adjusts the setpoint from 65° F. to 67° F., then the facility can record that the user was experiencing some level of discomfort, although not necessarily to the same extent as when the user adjusts the setpoint from 65° F. to 75° F. In some other embodiments, the facility may also periodically estimate and/or record the user's (or group of users') probability of comfort under the same or other conditions. For example, a user who has a 75% probability of being comfortable within a home at 67° F. will likely be comfortable in the same home at 66° F. and 68° F. but may not be at 57° F. or 77° F. In some embodiments, from monitoring user-initiated changes and recording exogenous factors, the facility may store this as historical data. From the historical data, the user's comfort surface may be updated, a new comfort range may be identified, and the facility may generate a plan or update a plan.

The facility can thus encompass a two-phase process of (1) discovering the comfort surface of a user, including a full range or set of ranges of comfortable temperatures and conditions, up to and including the boundary between comfort and discomfort for a user, given certain exogenous factors, and (2) selecting a setpoint schedule for this user based on the comfort surface or from within the full range or set of ranges according to any desired optimization algorithm. These two phases can repeat indefinitely or repeat in accordance with a set schedule, input from a user (e.g., an individual user, administrator, etc.), or other parameters.

In embodiments of the present technology, the facility can include (a) an initial identification about a user's comfort preferences, which is also sufficient to make decisions related to comfort before actual use data for a user becomes available, (b) differentiation between comfortable and uncomfortable conditions based on a user's interactions with their thermostat during periods when those conditions existed, which may be passively recorded or actively prompted via setpoint changes designed to test comfort limits, (c) sharing observations of comfort or discomfort across similar conditions to inform estimates of comfort or discomfort at previously unrecorded or rarely recorded conditions, and (d) the identification of the boundaries of a user's comfort creating a range of comfortable temperatures to be selected from in an optimization process. The facility improves upon HVAC control systems by deriving a range of actual comfortable temperatures during defined or selected periods, rather than a single temperature, which allows for an optimization of the setpoint schedule according to any desired optimization algorithm and under any desired objective function, while still constraining temperature to remain within users' comfort bounds and/or incorporating the level of comfort and/or discomfort directly in the objective function. The facility is usable to improve energy efficiency in addition to any number of other objectives, such as cost effectiveness, load shift, etc.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an environment in which the facility may operate in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosed technology. In this example, environment 100 include utilities 110, service providers 120, buildings 130, and network 150. Utilities 110 represent entities, such as public utilities, that provide infrastructure and access to various resources, such as electricity, gas, sewage, water, etc. Buildings 130 represent buildings that each include one or more comfort zones that is or can be controlled by a comfort facility 140 that analyzes historical data, comfort surface data, and exogenous data and provides control instructions for controlling a thermostat in accordance with comfort preferences and/or historical actions. In this example, each of the buildings 130 includes a comfort facility 140, an HVAC system, and a thermostat although one of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that the facility need not execute or exist at or within the building itself. For example, the service provider 120 may provide access to a comfort facility 140 via a network 150 to a building that provides data (e.g., historical data, comfort surface data, and exogenous data) from the building. As another example, a comfort facility 140 at or within one building may provide comfort-based energy control instructions to a thermostat within another building that does not include or maintain its own facility.

In this example, comfort facility 140 includes a comfort component 141, a generate-training-data component 142, an update-comfort-surface component 143, a generate-plan component 144, a historical-data store 147, a comfort-surface-data store 148, and an exogenous-data store 149. The comfort component 141 is invoked by the facility to generate a set of control instructions for a thermostat to control settings (e.g., HVAC settings) within a zone and provide those instructions to one or more thermostats or thermostat controllers. The generate-training-data component 142 is invoked by the comfort facility 140 to analyze and consolidate data related to user interactions with an HVAC system and exogenous conditions for use by the facility. The update-comfort-surface component 143 is invoked by the comfort component 141 to adjust or update a comfort surface based on the training data. The generate-plan component 144 is invoked by comfort component 141 to generate a set of thermostat control instructions based on an analysis of the comfort surface. Historical-data store 147 stores information related to user interactions with the HVAC system, such as adjustments to a thermostat, adjustments to fan settings, adjustments to air conditioning settings, and so on. In some environments, interactions with the HVAC system may be associated with a user or they may be anonymous. The comfort-surface-data store 148 stores comfort surface information for one or more users.

Each comfort surface represents, for each of a plurality of conditions, an estimate of a level of comfort that a user (or group of users) experiences under those conditions. The estimate of the level of comfort may be represented by a probability, functional form, numeric rating, etc. In some embodiments, the comfort surface provides an indication of how likely it is that a set of conditions will result in a manual adjustment to one or more HVAC settings. Exogenous data store 149 stores exogenous data related to an HVAC system, such as weather information, indoor atmosphere conditions, information about a building, etc. In some embodiments, the systems and various components of environment 100 communicate via network 150 or directly via wired or wireless communication connections (e.g., radio frequency, WIFI, and BLUETOOTH).

The computing devices on which the disclosed systems are implemented may include a central processing unit, memory, input devices (e.g., keyboard and pointing devices), output devices (e.g., display devices), and storage devices (e.g., disk drives). The memory and storage devices are computer-readable media that may be encoded with computer-executable instructions that implement the technology, e.g., a computer-readable medium that contains the instructions. In addition, the instructions, data structures, and message structures may be stored or transmitted via a data transmission medium, such as a signal on a communications link and may be encrypted. Non-transitory computer-readable media include tangible media such as storage media, hard drives, CD-ROMs, DVD-ROMS, and memories such as ROM, RAM, and Flash memories that can store instructions. Signals on a carrier wave such as an optical or electrical carrier wave are examples of transitory computer-readable media. Furthermore, “computer-readable devices” includes input, output, storage, and other devices but does not include transitory, propagating signals. Various communications links may be used, such as the Internet, a local area network, a wide area network, a point-to-point dial-up connection, a cell phone network, and so on.

The disclosed systems may be described in the general context of computer-executable instructions, such as program modules, executed by one or more computers or other devices. Generally, program modules include routines, programs, objects, components, data structures, and so on, that perform particular tasks or implement particular abstract data types. Typically, the functionality of the program modules may be combined or distributed as desired in various embodiments.

Many embodiments of the technology described herein may take the form of computer-executable instructions, including routines executed by a programmable computer. Those skilled in the relevant art will appreciate that aspects of the technology can be practiced on computer systems other than those shown and described herein. Embodiments of the technology may be implemented in and used with various operating environments that include personal computers, server computers, handheld or laptop devices, multiprocessor systems, microprocessor-based systems, programmable consumer electronics, network PCs, minicomputers, mainframe computers, computing environments that include any of the above systems or devices, and so on. Moreover, the technology can be embodied in a special-purpose computer or data processor that is specifically programmed, configured or constructed to perform one or more of the computer-executable instructions described herein. Accordingly, the terms “computer” or “system” as generally used herein refer to any data processor and can include Internet appliances and handheld devices (including palmtop computers, wearable computers, cellular or mobile phones, multi-processor systems, processor-based or programmable consumer electronics, network computers, mini computers and the like). Information handled by these computers can be presented at any suitable display medium, including a cathode ray tube display, liquid crystal display, light emitting diode display, plasma display, and so on.

The technology can also be practiced in distributed environments, where tasks or modules are performed by remote processing devices that are linked through a communications network. In a distributed computing environment, program modules or subroutines may be located in local and remote memory storage devices. Aspects of the technology described herein may be stored or distributed on computer-readable media, including magnetic or optically readable or removable computer disks, as well as distributed electronically over networks. Data structures and transmissions of data particular to aspects of the technology are also encompassed within the scope of the technology. For example, various systems may transmit data structures and other information using various protocols, such as the hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP), the transmission control protocol (TCP), the OpenTherm protocol, the ZigBee protocols, and so on.

FIG. 2 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a comfort component in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosed technology. The comfort component is invoked by the facility to analyze comfort surface data and generate a set of thermostat control instructions for controlling a thermostat over a period of time in accordance with the corresponding comfort surface. In some examples, the facility may invoke the comfort component periodically (e.g., once a day, once a week, once a month, etc.) to generate a plan for one or more future periods (e.g., the following 24 hours, the following five days, the following four weekends, the following month, etc.). In some examples, the facility may be prompted by a user to invoke the comfort component to generate a plan. In some examples, the comfort component may be invoked in response to a predetermined number of user adjustments. For example, if the facility determines that a user is frequently (e.g., more than once a day, more than three times a week, etc.) adjusting the temperature in a zone, the facility may invoke the comfort component to generate a new plan in accordance with an updated comfort surface. In block 210, the component retrieves a corresponding comfort surface from a comfort surface data store. For example, if the component has been invoked for a particular user, then the facility may retrieve comfort surface data corresponding to that user and the zone. As another example, the facility may retrieve a general comfort surface for the zone if a user is not identifiable or if no user-specific comfort surfaces exists. Alternatively, if no corresponding comfort surface exists, the component may create a new comfort surface and initialize the new comfort surface by, for example, setting the parameters of the comfort surface to predefined values across the surface according to a predefined function or by combining (e.g., calculating the mean, median, or mode) values from other comfort surfaces (e.g., comfort surfaces for other zones, or other users, or other buildings, etc.). In blocks 220 to 270, the component loops through each period for which a plan is to be generated and generates a plan for the corresponding period. In block 230, the component invokes a generate training data component to generate training data used to generate a plan for the corresponding period. In block 240, the component invokes an update comfort surface component to update the retrieved comfort surface with any new data. In block 250, the component invokes a generate plan component to generate a set of control instructions for the corresponding period. In block 260, the component implements the generated plan by, for example, sending the plan and its corresponding control instructs to a thermostat to control the thermostat in accordance with the generated plan. In block 270, the component loops back to block 220 to generate a plan for the next period.

One of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that individual comfort surfaces may be generated for individual users in any number of zones and that HVAC settings can be controlled in accordance with any comfort surface. Similarly, one of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that a single comfort surface may be generated for a group of users (whether they be identifiable or anonymous) based on interactions by those users and that HVAC settings can be controlled in accordance with any comfort surface. The facility can be used to efficiently control settings for a single user in a single-person household, for multiple users in a single-family household, for multiple users in a publicly available zone, and so on.

FIG. 3 is a table diagram illustrating historical data in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosed technology. In this example, table 300 consists of rows 300-399, each row including data for several represented columns, including: a user column, a day(s) column, a time column, a thermostat setting column, an inside temperature column, an outside temperature column, a humidity column, a comfortable column, and a not comfortable column. In this example, the historical data of table 300 represents information that has been recorded for a single zone and for a plurality of users. Each of rows 301-310 includes information that the facility can use to determine the probability that a user will be comfortable (or uncomfortable) under conditions represented in the row and/or the data represented in rows of related or similar conditions.

The user column includes user identification information, such as a unique identifier. In this example, table 300 includes information for multiple users, include user 0001 and user 0002. In the illustrated embodiment, row 310 does not include any user identification information, indicating that this information can be used for a generic user (or group of users) or when a user is not identifiable. In this manner, the historical data can be used for specific users (e.g., users 0001 and 0002) or for general users. The day(s) column identifies the days of the week for which the historical information in the row is relevant. For example, the historical information in row 301 is relevant to weekends (i.e., Saturday and Sunday), and the historical information in row 306 is relevant to weekdays (i.e., Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday), while the historical information in row 310 is relevant to every day of the week. The time column identifies a relevant time window, which may be of any level of granularity (e.g., 5 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, and so on). In this example, each time window is 30 minutes. Thus, the historical information in row 305 is relevant to weekdays between 6 a.m. and 6:30 a.m. while the comfort information in row 308 is relevant to Tuesday and Thursday between 2:30 p.m. and 3:00 p.m.

The thermostat setting column indicates the thermostat setting (in degrees Fahrenheit) associated with the corresponding historical information. The inside temperature column indicates the indoor temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) associated with the corresponding historical information. The outside temperature column indicates the outdoor temperature (in degrees Fahrenheit) associated with the corresponding historical information. The humidity column indicates the relative humidity of the outdoor air associated with the corresponding historical information. The comfortable column indicates the number of times that (or the extent to which), under the conditions defined within the corresponding row (or similar conditions), the relevant user (or group of users) was determined to be comfortable. The “not comfortable” column indicates the number of times that (or the extent to which), under the conditions defined within the corresponding row (or similar conditions), the relevant user (or group of users) was determined to be uncomfortable. For example, if a user adjusts the thermostat by 4° F., this 4° F. change can be recorded as an indication that the user was not comfortable with a weighted score of 4 under the “not comfortable” column, and if there is no user interaction, this lack of change can be recorded with a weighted score of 5 under the comfortable column.

In some embodiments, the facility may record user interactions without a weighted score and record only the number of times a user had an interaction (or lack thereof) with the thermostat in a given period. For example, the facility can record in binary of the user as being “too hot” or “too cold” independent of the degree that the user adjusts the thermostat. One skilled in the art will appreciate that the “comfortable” and “not comfortable” times may be tabulated in any number of ways with any number of different weighting scales. Thus, on weekends between 3:00 p.m. and 3:30 p.m., when the thermostat is set to 70° F., the indoor temperature is 70° F., the outside temperature is 75° F., and the relative humidity is 20%, user 0001 was found to be comfortable 42 times and uncomfortable 37 times (see row 304). Accordingly, in a simple embodiment, the facility can use the information in row 304 to determine that user 0001 has a 0.5316

$\left(\frac{42}{42+37}\right)$ probability (53.16%) of being comfortable under those conditions. As another example, the same user has a 0.0

$\left(\frac{0}{0+51}\right)$ probability (0%) of being comfortable on weekends between 1:00 p.m. and 1:30 p.m. when the outside temperature is 75° F., the relative humidity is 20%, and the thermostat is set to 73° F. In other embodiments, the comfortable or uncomfortable counts may be used to update a probability distribution, such as a beta distribution, or numerical comfort ratings may be used to update a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Accordingly, each row in table 300 can be used to determine the level of comfort and/or discomfort, or some scale such as, the probability for a user or group of users. These probabilities can then be stored as comfort surface data such as in FIG. 4.

One skilled in the art will appreciate that, while FIG. 3 provides an illustration that is easily comprehensible by a human reader, the actual information may be stored using different data structures and data organizations. The comfort surface may or may not be discretized as illustrated in FIG. 3. The comfort surface may also be a functional form that links conditions to a comfort measurement without the use of a lookup table. Moreover, one of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that a historical data store may store information for any number of users and/or zones and that any number of attributes may be recorded in association with the historical data store. For example, the historical data store may include additional information, such as building or zone identification information, location information, and so on. Similarly, the historical data store of FIG. 3 may be amended to remove one or more columns. In some examples, the facility may maintain separate historical data stores for individual users, individual buildings, individual zones, or any combination thereof.

FIG. 4 is a table diagram illustrating simple comfort surface data in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosed technology. In this example, table 400 represents a simple comfort surface, where the measurement of comfort is chosen to be defined by point estimates of probabilities. Table 400 provides, for any day of the week and for each of a plurality of thermostat settings ranging from 50° F. to 79° F. (rows 410a-p) and a plurality of one-hour time windows (columns 420), a probability that the represented users (or group of users) would be comfortable when the outside temperature is 55° F. The earliest time window, represented by “0”, corresponds to the first hour of the day (i.e., midnight to 12:59:59 a.m.) and the latest time window, represented by “23”, corresponds to the last hour of the day (i.e., 11:00 p.m. to 11:59:59 p.m.). In some embodiments, a kernel function can be used to share information across similar conditions, such that even if the user has never indicated discomfort under certain conditions, there may still be some probability that the user will be uncomfortable under these conditions. In some other embodiments, the facility can assign a 100% chance that the user would be comfortable under these conditions. If the user were to adjust the temperature under these conditions, however, the facility could update the comfort surface to reflect this indication of discomfort.

Further, table 400 shows that as the thermostat setting gets further and further away from 68° F. while the outdoor temperature is 55° F., the probability that the user is likely to be comfortable drops and is 0% at thermostat settings of 50° F. and 78° F. In some embodiments, initial comfort surface data may be generated based on input provided by the user and/or generic information of a typical user. As the facility collects more historical data on the user, the comfort surface data can be updated with new estimates of how comfortable the user would be under associated conditions. For example, if the comfort surface comprises parameters of a beta distribution, the facility can update the parameters of the beta distribution based on new counts of comfortable or uncomfortable time periods that have been recorded and their associated conditions using a kernel function to share information across similar conditions to those actual counts and/or conditions recorded. To derive a point estimate, the facility can select a median probability or randomly sample from the beta distribution to generate a point estimate probability. In some embodiments, the range of temperatures that define a user's comfort range may then be set by cutoff probabilities which exclude or include these point estimates. For example, the facility may set this cutoff at 80%, wherein the temperatures that are included in the test range are those in which a user is estimated to be comfortable with an 80% or greater chance. In this example, based on the comfort surface data in FIG. 4, a user's comfort range would be defined as 66° F.-70° F. at 8 a.m.

One skilled in the art will appreciate that while FIG. 4 provides an illustration that is easily comprehensible by a human reader, the actual information may be stored using different data structures and data organizations. One of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that a comfort surface data may be generated for any number of conditions or groups thereof. For example, the facility may generate additional comfort surface data for outside temperatures of 56° F., 60° F., 75° F., and so on and for additional dimensions, such as occupancy levels, indoor humidity, days of the week, and so on. Furthermore, any number of these dimensions may be “bucketized” to represent groups or ranges of values, such as outdoor temperatures ranging from 50° F.-55° F., 56° F.-60° F., etc. Thus, one of ordinary skill in the art will understand that a comfort surface could be used to represent user comfort levels across any number of dimensions and along any level of granularity.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a generate training data component in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosed technology. The generate training data component is invoked by the facility to combine information from various sources that the facility can use to generate one or more comfort surfaces. In block 510, the component retrieves the historical data representative of user interactions (or lack thereof) with one or more HVAC systems, such as changes to a thermostat, and the extent of those interactions. The historical data may be generated and recorded by the HVAC system itself or may be collected and recorded by the facility. Each time a user interacts with the HVAC system, the HVAC system or facility can log the interaction and the extent of the interaction. For example, if a user adjusts the thermostat by 5° F., this 5° F. change can be recorded as an indication that the user was not comfortable. Similarly, if there are no interactions during a particular period, this lack of an interaction can be recorded as indication that the user was comfortable.

The facility may retrieve the historical data periodically (e.g., once an hour, once every other hour, twice a day, once a week, and so on). In block 520, the facility retrieves exogenous data, such as weather information, atmospheric conditions, etc. This information may be retrieved from sensors or other sources, such as a service that provides weather information. In block 530, the facility quantifies historical comfort levels by determining, for each change to an HVAC setting represented in the historical data, the magnitude and direction of that change and the extent to which that change induces a change in the state of the HVAC. In block 540, the facility consolidates the historical data, including the quantified comfort levels, and exogenous data by, for example, merging the data so that contemporaneous historical and exogenous data are joined together by, for example, performing a SQL JOIN operation on tables storing the data.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of an update comfort surface component in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosed technology. The update comfort surface component is invoked by comfort component to adjust or update a comfort surface based on the training data. In block 610 to 670, the component loops through each point in the historical data to update the retrieved comfort surface. For example, each time a user interacts with the HVAC system and the interaction is recorded in the historical data, or each time a lack of interaction is recorded, the comfort surface is updated.

In block 630 to 660, the component loops through each point in comfort surface for which the comfort surface is to be updated. In block 620, for each point, p, in the historical data, the corresponding point in the comfort surface is identified. Point p represents the exogenous factors (e.g., time of day, day of week, outside temperature, and humidity) recorded in the historical data. For example, if a user manually adjusted the thermostat to change the temperature, the time of day, day of week, outside temperature, and humidity during the adjustment is recorded as point p. In block 640, for each corresponding point, q, in the comfort surface, the proximity of p to q is calculated. Point q represents the exogenous factors as recorded in the comfort surface. The proximity of p to q represents the degree of similarity between the combination of features for a given recording of a user's interaction (or lack thereof) for a given time period as determined by an appropriate kernel function. For example, if the user makes a temperature adjustment at 7 p.m. on a Wednesday when the outside temperature is 66° F. and humidity is 20%, the facility identifies a similarity between this combination of features and all other features contained within the defined space of the comfort surface. In this example, 7 p.m. on a Wednesday when the outside temperature is 67° F. and humidity is 21% may be identified as a similar set of conditions, while 7 p.m. on a Wednesday when the outside temperature is 98° F. and humidity is 45% may be identified as a much less similar set of conditions. In some embodiments, a kernel function can be used to quantify the similarity, such as the distance of a point on the surface with another point. The degree to which these sets of features are different may be used to augment the new estimates of a user's comfort surface.

In some embodiments, a new estimated comfort measurement in the comfort surface is augmented to a degree proportional to the proximity of p to q. In block 650, the comfort surface is updated with, for example, a new probability. In block 660, the component loops back to block 630 for the next point in comfort surface. In block 670, the component loops back to block 610 for the next point in the historical data. For example, if the user manually adjusts the thermostat by +5° F. when indoor temperature is 60° F., outside temperature is 50° F., on a weekend afternoon, this 5° F. change can be recorded as an indication that the user was uncomfortable under these set of conditions. In this example, under a similar indoor temperature, outside temperature, time of day, and day of week, the initial comfort surface can be updated with a new probability that the user is comfortable (or uncomfortable) or comfort measurement.

In some embodiments, the update comfort surface component loops through each time the facility records a user's interaction (or lack thereof) with one or more HVAC systems, such as user-initiated changes to a thermostat. In some embodiments, the update comfort surface component may be initiated when the facility records a user interaction. In some embodiments, the component may be initiated by the user, administrator, and/or facility. One of ordinary skill in the art will understand that the update comfort surface component could be initiated by any number of inputs and any type of input. In some embodiments, the comfort surface may not be updated in full at each iteration in higher dimensions, but may be calculated on an as-needed basis only for the relevant conditions under consideration at the time. For example, the comfort surface may be updated under only specific exogenous conditions, such as an outdoor temperature of 70° F. and humidity of 15% while updating the surface in its entirety across all possible values in two dimensions, such as time of day and indoor temperature. In another example, the comfort surface may be updated with more dimensions, such as time of day, indoor temperature, outdoor temperature, humidity, etc. In some embodiments, the comfort surface may be updated at each iteration in any number of dimensions.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a generate-plan component in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosed technology. The generate-plan component is invoked by the comfort component to generate a set of thermostat control instructions based on an analysis of the comfort surface. In block 710, the generate-plan component identifies objective(s), such as but not limited to cost effectiveness, load shift, level of comfort, and so on. In block 720, the component defines a comfort risk tolerance (e.g., 60%, 75%, etc.) or other constraints. In some embodiments, the risk tolerance factor may be chosen by default, a user or administrator, a utility, the facility, and so on. In some other embodiments, the comfort surface may not use a risk tolerance factor, and the comfort surface may be used as the input to the optimization to inform constraints or as an input to the objective function. In block 730, the component defines comfort constraints. In some embodiments, comfort constraints include a user's comfort range along with exogenous factors (e.g., time of day, day of week, outside temperature, and humidity). In block 740, the component identifies constraints. These constraints include the temperature range that is tested and from which setpoint temperatures are selected. For example, if a risk tolerance factor is set at 60%, and comfort constraints (i.e., a user's comfort range) are defined as 66° F.-70° F. for a given set of exogenous conditions, the component may identify the constraints (i.e., the test range) to be 64° F.-72° F. In block 750, the component solves constraints to meet particular objectives by identifying setpoint temperatures for a give schedule and exogenous conditions. The facility may solve constraints to meet particular objectives using advanced algorithms, such as programmatic optimization as described in ORCHESTRATED ENERGY. In some embodiments, the component may, for example, generate or modify a plan (e.g., a set of control instructions) based on total cost, level of comfort, risk tolerance, and user preferences. In block 780, the component stores the plan.

Once the plan is generated, the facility can implement the plan to control the thermostat and/or the HVAC system of the building structure so as to keep the environment in the building within the defined temperature ranges to ensure that the user(s) is comfortable within an acceptable level, while achieving the user's identified objectives. Thus, the facility can control the HVAC system directly or via a thermostat to turn on and off the HVAC's heaters and/or chillers at the appropriate times to maintain the suitably comfortable environment in the building structure with much better efficiencies throughout the day based on the determined comfort ranges for the user as calculated via the comfort surface.

From the foregoing, it will be appreciated that specific embodiments of the disclosure have been described herein for purposes of illustration, but that various modifications may be made without deviating from the disclosure. Furthermore, aspects of the disclosure described in the context of particular embodiments may be combined or eliminated in other embodiments. Further, while features and characteristics associated with certain embodiments of the disclosure have been described in the context of those embodiments, other embodiments may also exhibit such features and characteristics, and not all embodiments need necessarily exhibit such features and characteristics to fall within the scope of the disclosure. Accordingly, the disclosure is not limited, except as by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for controlling a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, the method comprising: for each of a plurality of time periods, combining historical data and exogenous data, andfor each of one or more historical data points in the combined data, mapping the historical data point in the combined data to a corresponding comfort surface point in a first comfort surface data structure, wherein the first comfort surface data structure is defined by a plurality of comfort surface points, andfor each of one or more comfort surface points in the first comfort surface data structure, calculating a proximity between the mapped historical data point and the one or more comfort surface points, andupdating at least one value for the one or more comfort surface points based on the calculated proximity to provide a second comfort surface data structure;generating a plan for controlling one or more components of the HVAC system based on the second comfort surface data structure; andcontrolling the one or more components for operation of the HVAC system in accordance with the generated plan.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising generating the first comfort surface data structure.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising retrieving the first comfort surface data structure.

4. The method of claim 1 wherein the one or more components is two or more components comprising a thermostat operably coupled to other components in the two or more components.

5. The method of claim 4 wherein generating the plan for controlling the two or more components includes defining a comfort risk tolerance based on the updated comfort surface, wherein the comfort risk tolerance determines a likelihood one or more users will be comfortable in a temperature range.

6. The method of claim 5 wherein generating the plan for controlling the two or more components further includes: defining one or more comfort constraints based on the comfort risk tolerance, wherein the comfort constraints include the temperature range and one or more exogenous constraints; andgenerating a schedule at least partially based on the defined one or more comfort constraints.

7. The method of claim 4 wherein generating the plan for controlling the two or more components includes: identifying one or more objectives, wherein the one or more objectives are related to one or more of user comfort, cost savings, energy efficiency, and load shift; andgenerating a schedule at least partially based on the one or more objectives.

8. The method of claim 4 wherein generating the plan for controlling the two or more components includes: identifying a first comfort preference range based on the updated comfort surface, wherein the first comfort preference range is associated with a temperature range;identifying a second comfort preference range to test comfort limits outside of the temperature range; andgenerating a schedule at least partially based on the identified second comfort preference range.

9. The method of claim 1 wherein each of the plurality of comfort surface points is associated with at least one entry comprising one or more time attributes, one or more thermostat settings, one or more environmental attributes, and one or more comfort attributes.

10. The method of claim 1, further comprising actively prompting user interactions with one of the one or more components to receive one or more new indications of user comfort after operation of the HVAC system in accordance with the generated plan.

11. The method of claim 1, further comprising receiving user inputs related to goals for cost savings, goals for energy efficiency, load shifting, and/or other defined objectives.

12. An energy control system, comprising: a heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) system;one or more processors; andone or more memories storing instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, control the energy control system to: for each of a plurality of time periods, retrieve historical data and exogenous data,quantify historical comfort levels,combine the historical data and the exogenous data, andfor each of one or more historical data points in the combined data, map the historical data point in the combined data to a corresponding comfort surface point in an initial comfort surface data structure, wherein the initial comfort surface data structure, is defined by a plurality of comfort surface points, andfor each of one or more comfort surface points in the initial comfort surface data structure, calculate a proximity between the mapped historical data point and the one or more comfort surface points, and update at least one value for the one or more comfort surface points based on the calculated proximity to generate an updated comfort surface data structure;generate a schedule for controlling one or more components in the HVAC system based on the updated comfort surface data structure; andcontrol the one or more components of the HVAC system in accordance with the generated schedule.

13. The energy control system of claim 12 wherein the instructions further control the energy control system to create the initial comfort surface data structure.

14. The energy control system of claim 12 wherein the one or more components of the HVAC system include a thermostat, and wherein the instructions further control the energy control system to actively prompt user interactions with the thermostat through control of the HVAC system to cause temperature changes as a function of cost savings, energy efficiency, load shift, or other user-defined objectives.

15. The energy control system of claim 12 wherein the updated comfort surface data structure is configured to determine a user's comfort at a plurality of combinations of internal temperature data and exogenous data.

16. The energy control system of claim 12 wherein, to generate the schedule for controlling the one or more components in the HVAC system, the instructions further control the energy control system to: identify one or more objectives;define one or more comfort constraints based on the updated comfort surface data structure, wherein the comfort constraints comprise a determined comfort preference range related to one or more temperatures; andgenerate the schedule for controlling the one or more components in the HVAC system based at least partially on the one or more comfort constraints and the one or more objectives.

17. The energy control system of claim 16 wherein the comfort preference range is a first comfort preference range and the one or more temperatures define a first temperature range, and wherein the instructions further control the energy control system to: define a second comfort preference range with a second temperature range outside the first temperature range; andtest comfort constraints based on the second comfort preference range.

18. A method, performed by a computing system, for controlling a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system, the method comprising: for each of a plurality of time periods, combining historical data and exogenous data, andfor each of one or more historical data points in the combined data, mapping the historical data point in the combined data to a corresponding comfort surface point in a first comfort surface data structure, wherein the first comfort surface data structure is defined by a plurality of comfort surface points, andfor each of one or more comfort surface points in the first comfort surface data structure, calculating a proximity between the mapped historical data point and the one or more comfort surface points, andupdating at least one value for the one or more comfort surface points based on the calculated proximity to generate a second comfort surface data structure;generating a schedule for controlling one or more components of the HVAC system based on the second comfort surface data structure; andcontrolling the one or more components for operation of the HVAC system in accordance with the generated schedule.

19. The method of claim 18, further comprising, for each of a plurality of time periods, quantifying historical comfort levels before combining the historical data and the exogenous data, wherein the combined data includes an indication of the quantified historical comfort levels.

20. The method of claim 18, further comprising creating the first comfort surface data structure.