The invention relates to oil and gas exploration, and in particular to a system and method for automatically optimizing a Field Development Plan with respect to a selected Figure of Merit (FoM) such as net present value (NPV) or total production output over a period of time.
The development of a subsurface oil or gas field generally includes the placement of drilling platforms (or the use of existing platforms), as well as the placement of borehole trajectories and well completions. Determining the correct placement of wells during field development is a crucial step in exploration and production workflow. There are many elements to complicate this process. For example, the geology and geomechanics of the subsurface influence where wells can be placed efficiently and safely. The wells themselves have drilling and construction constraints, such as new wells must avoid existing wells. Constraints also exist at the surface: there may be bathymetric or topographic constraints, legal constraints, and constraints related to existing facilities such as platforms and pipelines. Also, the effects of financial uncertainty over time may impact the viability of different solution options.
A Shared Earth Model (SEM) is a geometrical and material property model of the subsurface for an oil and gas field. The model is shared in the sense that it integrates the work of several experts (geologists, geophysicists, well log analysts, reservoir engineers, etc.). Users can typically interact with the model through various application programs, such as the PETREL® software package offered by the assignee of the present application, Schlumberger Technology Corporation of Sugar Land, Tex. SEM information is often displayed as a three-dimensional, finite element map of the geological subsurface. Ideally, SEM contains all available information about a reservoir, and thus forms the basis to make forecasts and plan future actions. However, to a greater or lesser extent, uncertainty exists in SEM parameter values. While acquiring more measurements can reduce uncertainty, it is important to weigh the cost of data acquisition against the benefits of reducing uncertainty. Examples of physical variables in a Shared Earth Model (SEM) that are normally considered during the process of developing a Field Development Plan are listed below:
i. Reservoir geology
ii. Reservoir petrophysics
iii. Reservoir Fluid Properties
Of course, parameter variables can also relate to other aspects of the scenario, such as engineering (existing facilities and the need to avoid collision of new borehole trajectories with existing boreholes), operational (binding contracts, e.g., a contract to drill 20 wells per year), or financial (oil price, facility cost, well drilling, construction and production cost) aspects of the project.
Field Development Plans are normally designed in order to meet various objectives, for example, maximum net present value (NPV) from the oil or gas field, or maximum total production in a given period, or to achieve other goals. A typical Field Development Plan includes platform locations, well or borehole trajectories and capacity, completion type, location and flow rate, and reservoir simulator parameters, for example, oil or gas rate. As mentioned, the field development process requires the consideration of a wide variety of parameter variables which cannot be controlled and may be uncertain in nature, as well as a wide variety of constraints, such as physical, engineering, operational, and financial constraints which have to be accounted for in the final Field Development Plan. For example, there may be legal or physical reasons preventing a drilling platform from being constructed in a specific x-y location. Optimizing the field development decision making process is important because initial field production management strategies may impact the viability of the entire field over both the short and long term horizons.
The complexities in designing a Field Development Plan (FDP) lend themselves to mathematical optimization techniques. In this regard, automated or semi-automated Field Development Planning provides the promise of not only facilitating faster decision making, but also rendering the decision making more reliable inasmuch as candidate choices can be quantitatively evaluated and then selected or rejected. Thus, it is not surprising that there has been a long history of research associated with automated and semi-automated Field Development Planning.
Optimization of the Field Development Plan is a highly combinatorial and non-linear exercise. Early work was based on the mixed-integer programming approaches (Rosenwald et al. 1974; Beckner and Song, 1995; Santellani et al. 1998; Leraperititou et al. 1990). This work principally focuses on vertical wells and simplistic static models. Recently, much work has been published on a technique termed “the hybrid genetic algorithm” (HGA) to develop a Field Development Plan that supports non-conventional (non-vertical) wells and side tracks (e.g., Güyaguler et al. 2000; Yeten et al. 2002; Badra et al. 2003; Güyaguler and Horne 2004). While this technique is relatively efficient, the underlying well model is simplistic: a single well with one vertical segment down to a kickoff depth (heal), then an optional deviated segment extending to the toe. Yet, the sophistication of optimized Field Development Plans based on the hybrid genetic algorithm has grown in the past few years. For example, the time component has been included to support injectors, and uncertainty in the reservoir model is being considered (e.g., Cullick et al. 2003; Cullick et al. 2005).
One of the difficulties in developing a practical automated Field Development System has been the overwhelming computational resources required to accurately and completely model production from candidate Field Development Plans for a given oil or gas field. To date, therefore, systems to optimize the Field Development Planning process have been limited in their use.
The present invention determines optimal subsurface locations and orientations for well completions as well as the other components of a complete Field Development Plan (FDP) by maximizing an objective function for a Figure of Merit (FoM) of candidate Field Development Plans. The invention allows users to rapidly generate multiple scenarios based on different objectives, geology and financial constraints while taking into account, if desired, the presence of uncertainties and risk aversion.
A key element of the invention is the use a high speed analytical reservoir simulator to forecast oil or gas production in an automated Field Development Planning system. The use of a high speed analytical reservoir simulator provides dynamic modeling of oil or gas production from the reservoir over time in an accurate and rapid manner, thereby enabling physically valid Field Development Plans to be rapidly computed. The preferred high speed analytical reservoir simulator is disclosed in Busswell et al. 2006, “Generalized Analytical Solution For Reservoir Problems With Multiple Wells And Boundary Conditions”, SPE 99288; and Gilchrist et al. 2007, “Semi-Analytical Solution For Multiple Layer Reservoir Problems With Multiple Vertical, Horizontal, Deviated And Fractured Wells”, IPTC 11718. The computational burden of a high speed analytical reservoir simulator such as a GREAT reservoir simulator is considerably less than reservoir simulators relying on finite element analysis. The computational efficiency gains using a high speed analytical reservoir simulator enable the practical realization of candidate Field Development Plans such that an optimizer can be used to evaluate an objective function for a Figure of Merit (FoM) of the candidate Field Development Plans, or run stochastic sampling loops in order to determine the effects of parameter uncertainty on the calculated Figure of Merit (FoM) for the candidate Field Development Plans.
One aspect of the invention is directed to a method of selecting an optimized Field Development Plan. The Field Development Plan has at least one platform location, as well as borehole trajectories and well completions for an oil or gas field. The method begins with a Shared Earth Model (SEM) including a static three-dimensional finite element map for the geological subsurface for the oil or gas field. Such a Shared Earth Model can be implemented in the PETREL® software package offered by Schlumberger Technology Corporation of Sugar Land, Tex. Next, a connected flow volume generator, for example as also provided in the PETREL® software package, determines a set of connected flow volumes from the three-dimensional, finite element map of the geological subsurface for the oil or gas field. Each connected flow volume corresponds to a distinct subsurface flow unit. In accordance with the invention, the set of connected flow volumes is then upscaled into a set of cuboid, analytical model elements suitable for use in a fast analytical reservoir simulator, such as the GREAT reservoir simulator. This high speed analytical reservoir simulator is referred to in the art as the GREAT reservoir simulator. The fast analytical reservoir simulator dynamically models flow within the respective cuboid elements in an accurate, rapid manner. Each cuboid element is defined by its dimensions, position and orientation within the geological subsurface, as well as physical parameter values, e.g., porosity, saturation and permeability, etc. In addition, each cuboid element is preferably selected to have zero flow boundary conditions. The process of selecting the dimensions, positions and orientation of the respective cuboid analytical model elements preferably employs an optimizer that ensures that the smallest cuboid available and closes all of the cells of the connected flow volume.
Once the upscaled set of cuboid elements is determined, the fast analytical simulator is able to forecast production from the set of cuboid elements based on candidate well completions. An objective function for a selected Figure of Merit (FoM) for candidate Field Development Plans relies on the production forecast from the fast analytical reservoir simulator. The selected Figure of Merit (FoM) may be net present value, total oil production for a given amount of time, or other desired Figure of Merit, but in accordance with the invention in all cases, the objective function defining the Figure of Merit relies on the output from the fast analytical reservoir simulator. In accordance with this aspect of the invention, the optimized Field Development Plan is selected by an optimizer that finds a maximum value of the objective function for the Figure of Merit. While a wide array of optimization algorithms may be used in accordance with the invention, a Nelder-Mead optimization algorithm is suitable. Use of a fast analytical reservoir simulator, such as the GREAT reservoir simulator, because of its computationally efficient and accurate output, enables the use of an optimization algorithm, while at the same time providing a complete comprehensive model of the entire Field Development Plan (FDP).
During the optimization process, it is preferred to penalize trajectories that are within collision tolerance. Also, if engineering properties and constraints support the concatenation of completions or the development of multilaterals, then the optimizer tends to combine neighboring completions to increase the Figure of Merit for the candidate Field Development Plan.
This and other aspects of the invention are preferably implemented in computer software stored on a computer readable medium. More specifically, in its preferred embodiment, the software takes the form of a software plug-in for the PETREL® software available from Schlumberger Technology Corporation.
In accordance with another aspect of the invention, the statistical deviation of the objective function for the Figure of Merit of the optimized Field Development Plan is tested with respect to uncertainty in physical variables in the Shared Earth Model (SEM). In this aspect, the software implements a stochastic sampling loop for a set of one or more uncertain physical variables in the Shared Earth Model. There are various stochastic sampling techniques known in the art that are suitable, e.g., a Monte Carlo analysis. Each stochastic sampling loop results in a modified realization for the Shared Earth Model (SEM). For each modified SEM realization, the steps of defining connected flow volumes and upscaling the connected flow volumes into cuboid, analytical model elements for the fast analytical reservoir simulator are implemented. Then, for each stochastic sampling loop, a Figure of Merit (FoM) value for the optimized Field Development Plan (FDP) for the modified Shared Earth Model (SEM) is calculated. Statistical analysis of these Figure of Merit (FoM) values such as mean, μ, and standard deviation σ, are generated based on the Figure of Merit realization set for the stochastic sampling. For example, the optimized Field Development Plan may have used a 30% porosity value for a given connected flow volume, but the uncertainty in that data may have been +/−5%. This aspect of the invention evaluates the likely effect of such uncertainties on the computation of the Figure of Merit (FoM) for a given Field Development Plan (FDP). Again, use of a fast analytical reservoir simulator such as the GREAT reservoir simulator, reduces the computational requirements of the system, thereby enabling the practical use of the stochastic sampling loop.
In another aspect of the invention, the Field Development Plan (FDP) is optimized in the presence of uncertainty of physical variables in the Shared Earth Model (SEM) as well as accounting for risk aversion. A risk aversion factor (λ) such as 0 (representing no risk aversion), 0.5. 1, 1.5, 2 (representing high aversion to risk) are considered by the system. In accordance with this aspect of the invention, the objective function for the Figure of Merit for candidate Field Development Plans is degraded by a risk factor, such as FoMλ=μ−λσ, where μ is the average Figure of Merit for a candidate Field Development Plan generated by stochastic sampling of uncertain physical variables, σ is the standard deviation of these Figure of Merit values and λ is a risk aversion factor. A plot of the average value of the Figure of Merit versus standard deviation of the Figure of Merit results in a plot known as the Efficient Frontier. For each risk aversion factor λ, the Figure of Merit is optimized along the Efficient Frontier in accordance with this aspect of the invention. In other words, an optimum Field Development Plan is selected in the presence of uncertainty in the Shared Earth Model, in accordance with this aspect of the invention, using an optimizer (e.g., Nelder-Mead) to test candidate FDPs to find the one with the maximum risk-based Figure of Merit (e.g., FoMλ=μ−λσ). Again, as mentioned above, use of a fast analytical reservoir simulator such as the GREAT reservoir simulator reduces the computational burdens on the system and enables stochastic sampling and optimization to be accomplished on a comprehensive basis for the entire Field Development Plan.
In another aspect of the invention, sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify physical variables that are regarded as significantly uncertain. This allows future efforts to focus on the most sensitive factors. Preferably, the sensitivity of the Figure of Merit (FoM) for a given Field Development Plan (FDP) with respect to uncertainty in physical variables is presented to the user in the form of a Pareto chart.
In another aspect of the invention, the method provides an estimate of the value of acquiring new data (VoIλ) to reduce uncertainty of physical variables in the Shared Earth Model (SEM). This is preferably accomplished by selecting an initial Field Development Plan optimized for an initial Shared Earth Model wherein the optimized objective function for the Figure of Merit (FoMλ) is degraded by a risk factor in the presence of uncertainty for physical variables in the Shared Earth Model (e.g. FoMλ=μ−λσ). Then, the results of one or more measurements are applied to the Shared Earth Model in order to generate a new Shared Earth Model with reduced uncertainty for the physical variables. A risk degraded Figure of Merit (FoMs1λ/m2) for the initial Field Development Plan is computed based on the new Shared Earth Model having reduced uncertainty. Then, a new Field Development Plan is optimized for the new Shared Earth Model, again with the optimized objective function for the Figure of Merit being degraded by a risk factor in the presence of the reduced uncertainty for the physical variables in the new Shared Earth Model (e.g. FoMλ=μ−λσ). Then, the risk degraded Figure of Merit (FoMs2λ/m2) for the new Field Development Plan based on the new Shared Earth Model having reduced uncertainty is computed. The value of acquiring the new data (VoIλ) is determined by comparing the Figure of Merit (FoMs1λ/m2) for the initial Field Development Plan calculated in light of the new Shared Earth Model to the Figure of Merit (FoMs2λ/m2) of the new Field Development Plan determined in light of the new Shared Earth Model.
While various aspects of the invention has been described above generally with respect to a variety of processes implemented within a Field Development Planning system, the invention can also be characterized in terms of software and hardware components embodied within such a system. In this regard, the invention is directed to a system for automatically generating an optimized Field Development Plan, which system contains a Shared Earth Model providing a static, three-dimensional finite element map of the geological subsurface for an oil or gas field for which the Field Development Plan is being created. The system further includes a connected flow volume generator, and a fast analytical reservoir simulator that dynamically models flow within cuboid analytical model elements having zero flow boundary conditions. The system includes means for upscaling connected flow volume sets into a set of cuboid elements for the fast analytical reservoir simulator. The system also contains means for optimizing an objective function for a Figure of Merit for candidate Field Development Plans, wherein the objective function relies on a fast analytical reservoir simulator to forecast production from the set of cuboid elements. As mentioned, the optimizer can implement any suitable optimizing algorithm such as a Nelder-Mead algorithm. Preferably, the system includes a display and means for displaying the optimized Field Development Plan on the display, including an illustration of one or more platform locations, optimized borehole trajectories and capacities, and optimized completion types locations and flow rates.
The system also preferably includes means for stochastically sampling one or more uncertain physical variables in the Shared Earth Model. It also preferably includes means for considering various values of risk aversion as well as accounting for risk in the objective function for the Figure of Merit for the candidate Field Development Plans.
The preferred system also comprises an optimal measurement design interface. The interface software displays a set of sensitive physical variables, and is capable of accepting potential measurement plans designed by an expert to reduce uncertainty in the Figure of Merit due to uncertainty in the physical variables in the Shared Earth Model, as well as interface software for listing potential measurements in an order descending according to estimated value of the potential measurement and means for selecting an identified measurement from the ordered list.
Other features and advantages of the invention may be apparent to those skilled in the art upon reviewing the drawings and the following description thereof.
Details of a Shared Earth Model suitable for use in the present invention are disclosed in Fanchi 2002, “Shared Earth Modeling: Methodologies For Integrated Reservoir Simulations”, Butterworth-Heinemann, 306 pp. Preferably, the Shared Earth Model represents static and dynamic data for multiple disciplines including data describing not only the reservoir, but also the overburden.
In order to implement the invention, it is necessary to create a set of cuboid, analytical model elements, e.g. a set of GREAT model elements, from an existing Shared Earth Model 10. As described in more detail with respect to
Referring to
Referring now to
More specifically, the upscaling algorithm first determines the geometry of the GREAT model element, including the layer thickness, position and orientation within the subsurface. Material properties including porosity and azimuthal permeabilities are averaged. For a given connected volume 18A-18E, the upscaling algorithm places a bounding cuboid that encloses all the cells defining the connected volume. An optimizer ensures that this is the smallest box that encloses all of the cells of the connected volume. If a single connected flow volume, e.g., 18A-18E, has significant heterogeneity in its flow properties, e.g., porosity, permeability or saturation, then the GREAT model element may be subdivided into layers. If layering in the original data is to be preserved, then the thicknesses of the layers in the upscaled model elements are set to the relative volume of each layer in the original data. At this point, the geometries of the GREAT model elements, e.g., 20A-20E, are known. To upscale the material properties to the GREAT model elements, the pore volume must be preserved. Thus, the total pore volume in the original data is computed and divided by the volume of the corresponding layer in the GREAT model element. This becomes the effective porosity of the upscaled layer. Permeability of each layer is computed by evaluating the weighted arithmetic mean of the permeabilities in the original data. That is, the permeability in each initial cell is multiplied by the volume of the cell and the sum of these products is then divided by the total volume of the cells. This is done for each permeability axes (x, y, z) for each layer. Individual GREAT model elements are preferably rejected if they correspond to invalid facies (e.g. interchannel shales), or their petrophysical properties fall outside of predetermined constraints, such as minimum allowed permeability or valid facies types.
The preferred version of the GREAT reservoir simulator (i.e. Gilchrist et al.) supports a layered model which allows flow between adjacent layers. The justification of using a multilayered GREAT model rather than a single layer to represent a single connected flow volume is based on information theory. In other words, the information loss when a model represents data is a tradeoff between the precision and complexity of the model. The more parameters in the model, the more precisely the model will fit the data, but the increased number of parameters makes the model more complex. The goal is to identify the appropriate balance between precision and complexity. Examples of appropriate methods to evaluate information criteria (IC) include Akaike 1974, “A New Look At The Statistical Model Identification”, IEEE Transactions and Automatic Control, 19(6): 716-723 and Bayesian, Burnham and Anderson 2004, “Multimodel inference: Understanding AIC and BIC in model selection”, Amsterdam Workshop on Model Selection. If a single connected volume, e.g., 18A, has significant lateral heterogeneity it its flow properties, then the GREAT model element can further be subdivided into cells as appropriate. Again, an information criteria approach is used to determine whether this more complex model is justified.
Referring to
A representative Field Development Plan (FDP) is shown in
Referring specifically to
Process B, illustrated in
Process C in
Turning to another feature of the invention,
Still referring to
Referring specifically to
Data set 76 corresponds to the Figure of Merit statistics μ, σ for each candidate Field Development Plan in which λ is 1.5. Triangle 76a corresponds to the optimized Field Development Plan considering uncertainty and a risk aversion factor λ=1.5. Data set 78 corresponds to the Figure of Merit statistics μ, σ for each candidate Field Development Plan when the risk aversion factor λ is equal to 0. Data point 78a indicates the statistics μ, σ for the optimized Field Development Plan considering uncertainty and a specific risk aversion λ=2. Note that the average value, μ, for a given Field Development Plan in the presence of a Shared Earth Model with uncertain physical variables cannot lie above what is termed the Efficient Frontier. Each of the data sets 72, 74, 76, 78 if mapped on a single two-dimensional plot (x axis=σ; y axis=μ), would contain points either lying on the Efficient Frontier or underneath. The region above the Efficient Frontier is unattainable.
While the example embodiment illustrates use of a risk-based objective function being defined as FoMλ=μ−λσ, other risk-based objective functions may be used in accordance with this aspect of the invention as desired or found useful.
In another aspect of the invention, a sensitivity analysis is used to identify physical variables with associated uncertainty levels that have the greatest impact on the Figure of Merit for candidate Field Development Plans. The sensitivity analysis in this regard is preferably accomplished in the following manner:
Acquiring new information or data about a reservoir by taking measurements to reduce the uncertainty in one or more physical variables will always have a cost. To justify this cost, it is important to know the value of the new information (VoI).
A risk-based Figure of Merit analysis (see Process E in
Next, an optimum Field Development Plan FDPλ/M2 in the presence of uncertainty and risk (λ) is determined for the more accurate Shared Earth Model M2, see reference numbers 94, 96. Note that this Field Development (FDPλ/M2) Plan has been optimized for the new, more accurate Shared Earth Model M2. A risk-based Figure of Merit (FoMS2λ/M2) is calculated for the Field Development Plan (FDPλ/M2) optimized for the more correct Shared Earth Model M2, see reference number 98 (FoMS2λ/M2=μS2λ/M2−λσS2λ/M2). The respective Figure of Merit values are compared, reference number 100, to determine the value of information (VoI) for a given λ, reference number 102 (FoMS2λ/M2−(FoMS1λ/M2). Note that this approach to analyzing the value of information (VoIλ) applies only after the measurement has been acquired.
Next, the user selects the first measurement in the ordered list, reference number 116, which is tested, reference number 118, to determine whether it meets budgetary and operational constraints. A measurement is not performed if it causes the cumulative measurement cost to exceed an allocated budget or other operational criteria such as equipment availability, timing, etc. The system tests the listed measurements 116 in order until it finds a measurement satisfying the budgetary or operational constraints. If a valid measurement can be made, reference number 120, the system prompts the user to make the measurement, reference number 124. Otherwise the system is exited, see reference number 122. Once the measurement is made, the information is entered into the Shared Earth Model as indicated by dashed line 126. The process in
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Number | Date | Country | |
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20100185427 A1 | Jul 2010 | US |