Embodiments of the invention generally relate to information technology, and, more particularly, to item pricing.
Changing consumer demographics, shrinking product lifecycle and easy financing are bringing about a change in the automotive markets worldwide. One problem that exists is information asymmetry (for example, a lemons market). In such a scenario, a seller is more informed than the buyer, and a buyers' decision can be driven by average price. Used vehicles of average quality dominate, and a further reduction in average price as well as an unstable market results. Additionally, used vehicle prices can be highly influenced by consumer-to-consumer (C2C) transactions.
By way of example, used car owners (end-users) want to sell their cars, and there are buyers (end-users) who can buy the used cars. However, even though the car owners are typically fully aware of the condition of the cars they are trying to sell, the buyers are not. In some instances, even the sellers are not completely aware of the condition of the car to allow them to determine the best price they can get for their used cars. More importantly, the buyers only have a partial view because they typically do not properly know the condition of the car.
In such a scenario, it can be very difficult to sell the cars through an auction mechanism. Because the buyers only have a partial view, the bids will be on the lower side and therefore even if a car is in good condition, it will not be able to derive as good a price as possible.
In another example, a third party operator (for example, one with sufficient expertise in judging the condition of a car) can buy the used cars from the sellers. The third party can then do some refurbishment of the car (if required) and sell these used cars to the potential buyers. In such a situation, where the third party is an authority in judging the condition of the cars, the sellers can be more confident that they can get the actual value of the used cars. Also, the buyers can trust the third party and buy the used cars at the offered price.
In exemplary marketplaces, as described above and herein, there can be two kinds of buyers and sellers: third-party (TP) buyers and sellers, and end-use (EU) buyers and sellers.
Problems can arise, however, in that once the third party buys a used car from an EU-seller, the third party needs to refurbish the car and then hold it in its own inventory until a point of time in the future when the third party is able to sell the used car to an EU-buyer. For example, if a car is held in the inventory for a long time, the value of the car likely decreases, and there is also a cost associated with holding an inventory. Additionally, a third party would not want to offer a price to the EU-seller that is higher than the price offered to an EU-buyer. Therefore, a third party will likely not buy a used car from an EU-seller that is higher than the selling price. In general, the higher the price that a third party offers to the EU-sellers, the higher the likelihood is that the EU-seller will sell the car to the third party. Similarly, the lesser the price that the third party offers to the EU-buyers, the higher the likelihood is that an EU-buyer will buy the used car from the third party (with less waiting time in the inventory).
As such, there exists a need for automated centralized pricing techniques for third party market operators of used vehicles that can enable, for example, creation of a stable market, information symmetry, stable pricing and efficient inventory management.
Principles and embodiments of the invention provide techniques for automated item pricing. An exemplary method (which may be computer-implemented) for automated pricing of an item, according to one aspect of the invention, can include steps of obtaining historical data of one or more previous purchases for the item, performing a regression on the historical data, and using the regression to obtain a buying price and a selling price for the item.
One or more embodiments of the invention or elements thereof can be implemented in the form of a computer product including a computer usable medium with computer usable program code for performing the method steps indicated. Furthermore, one or more embodiments of the invention or elements thereof can be implemented in the form of an apparatus or system including a memory and at least one processor that is coupled to the memory and operative to perform exemplary method steps. Yet further, in another aspect, one or more embodiments of the invention or elements thereof can be implemented in the form of means for carrying out one or more of the method steps described herein; the means can include hardware module(s), software module(s), or a combination of hardware and software modules.
These and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention will become apparent from the following detailed description of illustrative embodiments thereof, which is to be read in connection with the accompanying drawings.
Principles of the invention include automated vehicle (for example, used vehicle) pricing techniques for a third party operator. One or more embodiments of the invention include techniques for a third party to determine both the buying price and the selling price for used cars such that it yields a maximum benefit to the third party.
To address the challenges and constraints of the existing approaches noted above, the techniques described herein include a third party leveraging a mechanism that is different from that followed in an auction site. The third party has to bear certain costs (refurbishment, inventory and/or yield management) and also needs to make sure that it maximizes the his or her benefit (such as, for example, revenue and/or income) in the process (that is, the price at which the third party buys the used cars from the EU-sellers should be less than the price at which it sells the used cars to the EU-buyers).
As described herein, one or more embodiments of the invention include determining a buying price and a selling price combination for the third party operator that helps the third party to maximize his or her benefit. The techniques detailed herein also allow the third party to offer reasonable prices to the EU-sellers and to the EU-buyers while ensuring that there is minimal inventory holding time (that is, the value of the car does not depreciate much in the inventory).
One or more embodiments of the invention include determining the value of a vehicle (for example, a car, truck, motorcycle, boat, etc.) based on a utility/value function corresponding to one or more parameters of a vehicle. Additionally, the value of the car derived from the value/utility function can be normalized, taking into account historical depreciation data. Also, the value can be optimized, taking into consideration a profit region for both buyers and sellers.
In addition, in contrast to disadvantageous existing approaches, the techniques described herein can include performing both buying and selling price estimations together. Also, in one or more embodiments of the invention, a third-party operator can perform revenue management in their line-of-business. The techniques detailed herein can adapt to a changing market scenario, and take into account of the environmental factors and user perception (for example, by fitting logistic regression models to past transaction data for buying price determination and analyzing the waiting time for selling price determination) in addition to the car parameters. Also, one or more embodiments of the invention can be extended to used items whose value depreciates over time such as, for example, electrical/electronic equipments, household goods, furniture, books, etc.
As described herein, techniques for estimating the utility and/or value function from historical data can include the following components. One can parameterize the value function for certain vehicle parameters, as well as express the value of the car in terms of a parametric function. Also, the value of the car can be normalized in terms of the depreciation. From the success and failure cases in buying used vehicles by the third party stored in the database, one or more embodiments of the invention can formulate a logistic regression function. Also, one can perform a constrained optimization of the logistic regression with non-zero utilities, and model the buying probability function. Further, one can model the selling probability of refurbished vehicles from the waiting time in the inventory.
By way of example, a used vehicle can be represented as x=[x1,x2, . . . , xn], with the value of the vehicle represented as
and where u(x_i) represents the utility of a particular attribute I, with the coefficient a_i>0. Additionally, by way of example, let V be the price offered to the seller of the vehicle by the automated pricing system, and let B denote a random variable in {0,1} denoting the success or failure (success: if the seller sells the vehicle to the third party operator, failure: if he doesn't sell).
The probability of success can be a logistic function:
Probability of failure can be represented as follows:
Sets and parameters can include, for example, N previous instances available to the third party. Also, S can be the set of success deals, and F can be the set of failure deals, so that N=|S|+|F|. Additionally a previous instance can be denoted as (z(j), V(j), B(j)).
A likelihood function can be represented as follows:
or, equivalently,
A non-linear optimization task can be represented as follows:
subject to: ai≧0 for all i ε{0,1, . . . , n}.
In one or more embodiments of the invention, the third party operator can sell a used vehicle after refurbishment. Let the value of the refurbished vehicle at the outlet of the third party be represented as v(z)+k. Also, let C denote a random variable in {0,1} indicating the failure or success of selling the vehicle in the true value outlet. As such,
In one or more embodiments of the invention, samples bearing failure cases in the outlet of third party do not exist (due to benefit consequences). Also, a third party can reduce the price at the outlet if there is a long waiting time.
Average waiting time in the outlet can be represented as
Also, average waiting time can be represented as
Let W be the units of waiting time for the refurbished vehicle at the outlet with a price v(z)+k. As such,
Further, an average of the past sold samples can be used to approximate the relationship.
As described herein, techniques for obtaining the best (buying price and selling price) combination through revenue management model can include the following components. One can obtain an operating region from the buying probability and selling probability curves, as well as estimate the profit per unit vehicle from the operating region. Additionally, one can optimize the profit per unit vehicle to obtain the best (buying, selling) price combination across the vehicle of same category (model and make). The techniques described herein are extensible to include inventory capacities and/or costs at a dealership, and are extensible to a dealership network within a city for sharing inventories.
In one or more embodiments of the invention, for example, a third party buys a vehicle from an informed seller at a price v(z)+a, where “a” is the incentive. Then, the probability of buying the vehicle from the seller (success) can be represented as
Additionally, let the third party profit=r, and refurbishment cost=b. As such, the probability of selling the vehicle at the outlet can be represented as
Further, the expected profit per vehicle by the third party can be represented as
that is,
As described above and herein, and in contrast to disadvantageous existing approaches, the techniques described herein include a combination of buying and selling price determination from the logistic regression and inventory modeling. Further, one or more embodiments of the invention include subsequent optimal point determination.
In one or more embodiments of the invention, maximizing profit can be represented as:
Also, a profit equation (herein referred to as Equation_Profit) can be denoted as follows: for a>0, r≧c+3c exp(mg(1−λ)), wherein g=(b+r), and
The historical data of previous purchases of the item can include a price of the item over a selected time period, and wherein obtaining the historical data can further include performing a price normalization over the selected time period by analyzing a past pricing trend (for example, via using function learning tools). Also, the historical data of previous purchases of the item can include historical data indicating success and failure in purchasing a used version of the item.
Step 604 includes performing a regression (for example, a logistic regression) on the historical data. Step 606 includes using the regression to obtain a buying price and a selling price for the item. Using the logistic regression to obtain a buying price and a selling price can include using the logistic regression to obtain a buying price and a selling price that optimizes revenue for a third party, wherein the third party is buying the item from a first party and selling the item to a second party. Also, one or more embodiments of the invention include creating models for one or more regions with third party outlets, as well as quantifying a similarity (or dissimilarity) between the models to obtain segregation in a customer base.
Additionally, one or more embodiments of the invention include incrementally adapting the model parameters. Also, the techniques depicted in
One or more embodiments of the invention can also include obtaining one or more parameters of the item. In one or more embodiments of the invention, the item can be a vehicle, and the parameters can include, for example, mileage, age of the vehicle, make and model, location, and/or waiting time in an inventory of a used vehicle against its price. Further, in one or more embodiments of the invention, performing a regression on the historical data includes taking into account the parameters of the item.
The techniques depicted in
Additionally, in one or more embodiments of the invention, one can use an inventory modeling technique to obtain a selling probability curve for a third party that shows the probability of a used car being sold to the buyers as function of the price of the car determined by the third party. Consequently, the third party can derive both the buying probability curve and the selling probability curve with a normalized value of the car. Therefore, the third party can derive the operating region using these two curves, which indicates a range of values of a car.
For each possible value of the car in this region, the third party can derive the expected benefit (profit) for the car, and derive the likeliness that a transaction will be successful. Using these constraints, the third party operator can decide an operating point in the operating region.
A variety of techniques, utilizing dedicated hardware, general purpose processors, software, or a combination of the foregoing may be employed to implement the present invention. At least one embodiment of the invention can be implemented in the form of a computer product including a computer usable medium with computer usable program code for performing the method steps indicated. Furthermore, at least one embodiment of the invention can be implemented in the form of an apparatus including a memory and at least one processor that is coupled to the memory and operative to perform exemplary method steps.
At present, it is believed that the preferred implementation will make substantial use of software running on a general-purpose computer or workstation. With reference to
Accordingly, computer software including instructions or code for performing the methodologies of the invention, as described herein, may be stored in one or more of the associated memory devices (for example, ROM, fixed or removable memory) and, when ready to be utilized, loaded in part or in whole (for example, into RAM) and executed by a CPU. Such software could include, but is not limited to, firmware, resident software, microcode, and the like.
Furthermore, the invention can take the form of a computer program product accessible from a computer-usable or computer-readable medium (for example, media 718) providing program code for use by or in connection with a computer or any instruction execution system. For the purposes of this description, a computer usable or computer readable medium can be any apparatus for use by or in connection with the instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.
The medium can be an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system (or apparatus or device) or a propagation medium. Examples of a computer-readable medium include a semiconductor or solid-state memory (for example, memory 704), magnetic tape, a removable computer diskette (for example, media 718), a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), a rigid magnetic disk and an optical disk. Current examples of optical disks include compact disk-read only memory (CD-ROM), compact disk-read and/or write (CD-R/W) and DVD.
A data processing system suitable for storing and/or executing program code will include at least one processor 702 coupled directly or indirectly to memory elements 704 through a system bus 710. The memory elements can include local memory employed during actual execution of the program code, bulk storage, and cache memories which provide temporary storage of at least some program code in order to reduce the number of times code must be retrieved from bulk storage during execution.
Input and/or output or I/O devices (including but not limited to keyboards 708, displays 706, pointing devices, and the like) can be coupled to the system either directly (such as via bus 710) or through intervening I/O controllers (omitted for clarity).
Network adapters such as network interface 714 may also be coupled to the system to enable the data processing system to become coupled to other data processing systems or remote printers or storage devices through intervening private or public networks. Modems, cable modem and Ethernet cards are just a few of the currently available types of network adapters.
In any case, it should be understood that the components illustrated herein may be implemented in various forms of hardware, software, or combinations thereof, for example, application specific integrated circuit(s) (ASICS), functional circuitry, one or more appropriately programmed general purpose digital computers with associated memory, and the like. Given the teachings of the invention provided herein, one of ordinary skill in the related art will be able to contemplate other implementations of the components of the invention.
At least one embodiment of the invention may provide one or more beneficial effects, such as, for example, combining a buying and a selling price determination from the logistic regression and inventory modeling.
Although illustrative embodiments of the present invention have been described herein with reference to the accompanying drawings, it is to be understood that the invention is not limited to those precise embodiments, and that various other changes and modifications may be made by one skilled in the art without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention.