This application claims the benefit of Japanese Patent Application No. 2013-159503 filed on Jul. 31, 2013, the disclosure of which is incorporated herein by reference.
1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates to a business viability evaluation apparatus, a business viability evaluation method, and a business viability evaluation program.
2. Description of the Related Art
When a business enterprise carries out a business, the enterprise estimates profitability of the business and evaluates the estimated profitability in advance. One of commonly-used evaluation methods is to set a plurality of prerequisites such as a revenue, an expenditure, a depreciation cost, an interest cost, and a tax, and to calculate a management indicator, such as, for example, an amount of cumulative profits, for each of the prerequisites. A typical example of such a business is a “project”. In the project, investment is performed in an initial period. Cost of the investment is recovered by profits gained during a plurality of periods that follows.
Nakazawa, M. and Ikeda, K. (1998), Introduction to cash flow management, Tokyo, Nihon Keizai Shimbun Inc., pp. 75-88 (which is hereinafter referred to as Non-Patent Document 1) discloses an example in which, in a project as described above, a net present value, an internal rate of return, a payout time, and the like are calculated based on an investment amount in an early stage and a cash flow obtained in a later stage. Japanese Laid-Open Patent Application, Publication No. 2004-038804 (see, for example, claim 1, FIG. 6, FIG. 9, and FIG. 10) (which is hereinafter referred to as Patent Document 1) discloses a device for predicting cash flow which calculates predicted values of a tax rate, a borrowing rate of interest, a rent change rate, and the like in the past, based on result values of the tax rate, the borrowing rate of interest, the rent change rate, and the like in the past, respectively. One of the predicted values of the tax rate, the borrowing rate of interest, the rent change rate, and the like is randomly acquired. The acquired predicted value is inputted into a calculation formula of a scenario formation element selected by a user, to thereby calculate a predicted cash flow for each period in the future. At this time, the device for predicting cash flow outputs the predicted cash flow in form of a probability distribution.
The business enterprise verifies, for example, how a future expenditure changes in time series and how wide is a swing of the expenditure in a given period, while varying a prerequisite. A revenue and expenditure structure is typically hierarchical in which, for example, the expenditure includes an expenditure A, an expenditure B, and an expenditure C; and the expenditure A includes an expenditure Aa and an expenditure Ab. It is highly difficult to detect a prerequisite to be changed, from such a structure. Further, even if the prerequisite to be changed is currently detected, there is a possibility that a value with inappropriate definition is entered by mistake or that data is incorrectly entered and overlooked and an erroneously-obtained result is believed to be reliable.
In Patent Document 1, the device for predicting cash flow fails to deal with the possibility of the inconvenience as described above. The device for predicting cash flow also fails to meet practical needs that a user wants to successively perform entry and output operations while the user can easily see entry and output values necessary for the operations.
The present invention has been made in an attempt to provide a business viability evaluation apparatus in which a determination of a revenue and expenditure structure and an input of a prerequisite is clearly separated from each other, and thus, a change of a management indicator is visible when the prerequisite is changed in an interactive manner.
A business viability evaluation apparatus includes: a data management part that receives that a user enters a calculation process which is a process of calculating a value of an evaluation item for evaluating a business and a prerequisite which is an input value to the calculation process; and a business viability evaluation part that creates a value of the evaluation item in time series based on the calculation process and the prerequisite, displays the value of the evaluation item created in time series, receives that the user re-enters a changed prerequisite, re-creates a value of the evaluation item in time series based on the calculation process and the changed prerequisite, and displays the value of the evaluation item re-created in time series.
Other means will be described hereinafter in an embodiment for carrying out the present invention.
The present invention makes it possible to clearly separate a determination of a revenue and expenditure structure and an input of a prerequisite from each other and to make visible a change of a management indicator when the prerequisite is changed in an interactive manner.
Next is described an embodiment for carrying out the present invention (to be simply referred to as “this embodiment” hereinafter, with reference to related drawings.
With reference to
With reference to
The prefix field 101 is any one of “ProjectName”, “Currency1”, “Currency2”, “Currency3”, “ProjectYear”, “Summary”, “Revenue”, “Expenditure”, “Other”, “Indicator”, and “Item_B”.
“ProjectName” refers to a name of a project.
“Currency1” refers to a first currency of a plurality of currencies each indicating an amount by which profitability of the project is evaluated. Similarly, “Currency2” refers to a second currency, and “Currency3”, a third currency.
“ProjectYear” refers to a time period of the project. The time period herein indicates a time length of the project, and a unit thereof is herein a “year”.
“Summary” refers to a name of a main item. A value of the main item is displayed as a time series indicator (see, for example,
“Revenue” refers to a revenue which is one of the main items.
“Expenditure” refers to an expenditure which is also one of the main items.
“Other” refers to a main item other than “Revenue” and “Expenditure”.
“Indicator” refers to a management indicator. In this embodiment, one indicator defined throughout the project period is specifically referred to as a “management indicator”.
“Item_B” refers to a definition. The definition includes: a definition for defining a calculation formula for calculating a value of an item (a calculation process); a definition for identifying a value itself of an item; a definition for identifying a probability distribution of a value of an item, using a parameter; and a definition for defining an year-on-year percentage change of a value of an item (to be hereinafter described in detail).
Different categories in the prefix field 101 store respective different data in the item field 102 through the value3 field 106 of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31.
If the category is “ProjectName”, a name of a project is stored in the item field 102 as it is, and the other fields are left blank (a row 111).
If the category is “Currency1”, characters indicating the first currency is stored in the item field 102 and the other fields are left blank (a row 112).
If the category is “Currency2” or “Currency3”, characters indicating the second or third currency is stored in the item field 102; a conversion rate (an exchange rate) which is multiplied by an amount of the first currency is stored in the value1 field 104; and the other fields are left blank (rows 113 and 114). Note that the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 may contain rows of “Currency4”, “Currency5”, and the like.
If the category is “ProjectYear”, a time period of the project is stored in the value1 field 104, and the other fields are left blank (a row 115).
If the category is “Summary”, any one of “Revenue”, “Expenditure”, “Other”, and “Indicator” is stored in the item field 102, and the other fields are left blank (rows 116, 118, 122, and 124).
If the category is “Revenue”, a detailed item of the revenue is stored in the item field 102, and the other fields are left blank (a row 117). A number of various detailed items of the revenue may be possible such as “Sales”, “Service fee”, and “Subsidy”. For simplification of explanation, however, only “Sales” is stored as the detailed item of the revenue in this embodiment.
If the category is “Expenditure”, a detailed item of the expenditure is stored in the item field 102, and the other fields are left blank (rows 119 to 121). In this embodiment, the detailed item of the expenditure includes “Fixed cost”, “Variable cost”, and “Depreciation cost”.
If the category is “Other”, a detailed item of an other main item is stored in the item field 102, and the other fields are left blank (a row 123). A number of various detailed items of the other main item may be possible such as “Profit”, “Debt payment”, and “Profit distribution”. For simplification of explanation, however, only “Profit” is stored as the detailed item of the revenue in this embodiment.
If the category is “Indicator”, a management indicator is stored in the item field 102, and the other fields are left blank (a row 125). A number of various detailed items of the management indicator may be possible such as “IRR (Internal Rate of Return)”, “Net present value”, and “Payout time”. For simplification of explanation, however, only “IRR” is stored as the detailed item of the management indicator in this embodiment.
If the category is “Item_B”, there are types 1 to 6, which are described separately below.
Type 1 is a calculation formula of four arithmetic operations.
Rows 131, 133, 137, 140, 141, 144, 148, and 152 of
The row 131 defines a calculation formula of “Profit=Sales−Fixed cost−Variable cost”.
The row 133 defines a calculation formula of “Sales=Sales price×Sales volume”.
The row 137 defines a calculation formula of “Fixed cost=Labor cost+Land lease cost”.
The row 140 defines a calculation formula of “Variable cost=Electricity cost+Pharmaceutical cost+Parts cost”.
The row 141 defines a calculation formula of “Electricity cost=Electric rate (unit price)×Electrical consumption”.
The row 144 defines a calculation formula of “Electrical consumption=Pump driving+Lighting+Air conditioning”. “Pump driving” used herein means an electrical consumption for the pump driving. The same applies to “Lighting” and “Air conditioning”.
The row 148 defines a calculation formula of “Pharmaceutical cost=Pharmaceutical price×Pharmaceutical consumption”.
The row 152 defines a calculation formula of “Parts cost=Parts price×Parts used amount”.
Type 2 is a calculation formula other than the four arithmetic operations.
Rows 132 and 156 each define a calculation formula concerning a calculation other than the four arithmetic operations.
The row 132 defines a calculation of an IRR using a prescribed method based on an investment amount and a profit (before depreciation). Assume a case in which a time period of a project is “m years” and Formula 1 showing relationship of cash flows in each period is given as below. The IRR can be calculated by solving an equation with “r” in Formula 1 as an unknown. Herein, r (0<r) is a discount rate.
C
0
+C
1/(1+r)+C2/(1+r2+ . . . +Cm/(1+r)m=0 [Formula 1]
Cn is a cash flow in a n-th period(n=0, 1, 2, . . . , m). The cash flow is a profit before depreciation (Sales−Fixed cost−Variable cost). C0 is equal to an investment amount in an initial stage. The investment amount is an amount going out from an enterprise as cash. Hence, C0 always takes a negative value. Cn (n=1, 2, . . . , m) takes a positive or a negative value. Typically, Cn takes a negative value when n is relatively small (for example, in an early stage after investment), and, a positive value when n is sufficiently large (for example, when a facility or the like is in a stable operation).
Even if a monetary value in a 0-th period (at a current point of time) when investment is made is nominally equal to a monetary value in an n-th period (n≠0), the two monetary values are not necessarily evaluated on equal terms. In evaluating Cn, the cash flow in the n-th period (n≠0), based on the current monetary value, it is necessary to divide Cn by (1+r)n. A left member of Formula 1 thus corresponds to a current monetary value of cash flows generated throughout all periods of the project, which is suitable for being used as an evaluated value of the project at a current point of time. The evaluated value is called a “net present value”. The IRR is a discount rate which makes Formula 1 satisfied, that is, which makes a net present value “0”. The larger the IRR, the larger the value as an investment.
The row 156 defines how a depreciation cost is calculated based on an investment amount and years of depreciation using a prescribed method. As is known in the art, a depreciation cost in each period is calculated by first subtracting a prescribed remaining book value from the investment amount, to thereby obtain the subtracted result as a depreciation amount required, and then dividing the depreciation amount required, by the years of depreciation (a straight-line method). Or, the depreciation cost at each period can be calculated by multiplying the depreciation amount required or a book value at an end of a previous period by a prescribed depreciation ratio for each period (a declining-balance method). The remaining book value may take a value of “0”. “Depreciation1” shows that the depreciation cost in each period is calculated using the straight-line method. “Depreciation2” shows that the depreciation cost in each period is calculated using the declining-balance method.
Type 3 is a method of defining a value as a prerequisite.
Though not illustrated in
Type 4 is a method of defining a value as a prerequisite using a continuous probability distribution.
If an input value cannot be determined as a specific value, a probability distribution of the input value is generally used instead. It is commonly performed that, for example, assuming that the input value shows a normal distribution and a specific form of a distribution thereof is specified by using two parameters, a “mean value” and a “dispersion”. Though not illustrated in
Type 5 is a method of defining a value as a prerequisite using a discrete probability distribution.
In this embodiment, the continuous probability distribution of Type 4 is made simpler, and a distribution of an input value as a prerequisite is discretely specified using two parameters, a “mean value” and an “accuracy”. The row 134, for example, shows that the sales price has a probability distribution of discrete type specified by two parameters, the mean value of “10,000” and the accuracy of “90%”.
Referring to
A bar 161b in the leftward of the three bars indicates “400” on the horizontal axis. “400” is a value obtained by subtracting, from a value of “500” which is indicated on the horizontal axis of the middle bar 161a, a value of “100” which is “20%” of “500” described above. “20%” is a value obtained by subtracting “80%” of “Approx80” stored in the operator field 103 of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 from “100%”. The leftward bar 161b indicates “10” on the vertical axis. “10” is half a value obtained by subtracting “80%” of “Approx80” stored in the operator field 103 of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 from “100%”.
A bar 161c in the rightward of the three bars indicates “600” on the horizontal axis. “600” is a value obtained by subtracting, from the value of “500” which is indicated on the horizontal axis of the middle bar 161a, the value of “100” which is “20%” of “500” described above. “20%” is a value obtained by subtracting “80%” of “Approx80” stored in the operator field 103 of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 from “100%”. The rightward bar 161c indicates “10” on the vertical axis. “10” is half a value obtained by subtracting “80%” of “Approx80” stored in the operator field 103 of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 from “100%”.
“500” (designated at reference numeral 161d) is shown just below a character string of “Air conditioning”. This indicates a position of the middle bar 161a on the horizontal axis or an expected value of any of the middle bar 161a, the leftward bar 161b, and the rightward bar 161c. In order to distinguish “500” as the value indicating the position of the middle bar 161a on the horizontal axis from “500” as the expected value, for example, a prescribed sign such as “#” may be added to the latter “500” as the expected value, and in the meantime, no sign may be added to the former “500” as the value indicating the position of the middle bar 161a on the horizontal axis. “500” (at reference numeral 161d) illustrated in
The same explanation of “Air conditioning” as described above applies to the rows 135, 138, 139, 142, 145 to 147, 149, 150, 153, 154, 157, and 158 of
Type 6 is a method of defining a rate of change of a value of the item.
A row 136 of
Though not illustrated in
The rows of Types 1 and 2 of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 of
Though details will be described later, a user firstly enters appropriate data in a part for defining a revenue and expenditure structure, and secondly enters appropriate data in a part for storing an input value as a prerequisite. Typically, the user firstly enters the data to the fields of
Above is described an example in which a revenue and expenditure structure of a calculation formula or the like and (a probability distribution of) a value of the sales price or the like are the same through all periods of the project. Normally, the revenue and expenditure structure should be fixed through all of the periods. However, (the probability distribution of) the value of the sales price or the like may be defined for each of the periods. For example, such rows as “Item_B, Sales price (up to a tenth period), Approx90, 10,000” and “Item_B, Sales price (in and after an eleventh period), Approx80, 12,000” of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 may be defined at the same time.
Referring to
A diagrammatic illustration of the row 202 is a pharmaceutical price 204 of
A diagrammatic illustration of the row 203 is a pharmaceutical consumption 205 of
The business viability evaluation part 22 of the business viability evaluation apparatus 1 computes a pharmaceutical cost by multiplying a probability distribution of the pharmaceutical price 204 by a probability distribution of the pharmaceutical consumption 205. The obtained pharmaceutical cost is also represented in a form of a probability distribution. More specifically, the business viability evaluation part 22 repeats a processing of multiplying a value in one rectangle of the pharmaceutical price 204 by a value in one rectangle of the pharmaceutical consumption 205, with respect to all of the rectangles in the pharmaceutical consumption 205 (inner loop). Then, the business viability evaluation part 22 repeats a processing of the inner loop with respect to all of the rectangles in the pharmaceutical price 204 (outer loop). After completion of the processing of the outer loop, the business viability evaluation part 22 holds 10×10=100 units of the calculation results as shown in
The business viability evaluation part 22 prepares a probability distribution based on the calculation results as shown in
As illustrated in
For example, the business viability evaluation part 22 computes a variable cost by adding up an electricity cost, a pharmaceutical cost, and a parts cost (the row 140 of
Next is described a layout of a business viability evaluation screen 51 (
Referring to
Assume that the user then selects “Electricity cost” in a section 213 using the mouse. In response, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a distribution chart 214 of the electricity cost. The business viability evaluation part 22 further displays a graphic in which items necessary for calculating the electricity cost are shown (designated at reference numeral 215). At this time, “Electrical consumption”, one of the items in the section 215, is displayed by being surrounded by a rectangle. In the meantime, “Electric rate”, another item, is displayed not by being surrounded by a rectangle but with a small checkbox. The two items are displayed differently because a value of the electric rate is entered as a prerequisite (the row 142 of
Let the user select “Electrical consumption” in the section 215 using the mouse. In response, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a distribution chart 216 of the electrical consumption. The business viability evaluation part 22 further displays a graphic in which items necessary for calculating the electrical consumption are displayed (designated at reference numeral 217). Finally, let the user select “Air conditioning” in the section 217 using the mouse. In response, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a distribution chart 218 of the air conditioning.
The business viability evaluation part 22 may display the distribution charts 212, 214, 216, and 218 differently. The distribution charts 212, 214, and 216 of the variable cost, the electricity cost, and the electrical consumption, respectively, have respective middle bars in contact with corresponding bars on both sides. In the meantime, the distribution chart 218 of the air conditioning has a middle bar with gaps with each of the bars on the both sides. As will be understood, there are two different types of the distribution chart because a value of the air conditioning is entered as a prerequisite, and meanwhile, each of values of the variable cost, the electricity cost, and the electrical consumption is obtained from a calculation result of other items. The gaps make it easy for the user to transfer a given bar to where the user desires by grasping an upper side of the bar (to be described in detail hereinafter).
Description above is made assuming that the business viability evaluation part 22 displays graphics representing the distribution charts and the items step by step from upper level to lower level in response to a plurality of mouse manipulations by the user. Or, the business viability evaluation part 22 may display, when, for example, the user selects a graphic indicating “Variable cost” in the section 211, distribution charts and graphics of lower-level items of “Variable cost” all at once.
Further, in the step-by-step display, the business viability evaluation part 22 may change what is to be displayed according to selection by a user. For example, if the user selects and double clicks “Electricity cost” in the section 213 using the mouse, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the distribution chart 214 and the section 215 containing items required for the electricity cost. Or, if, for example, the user selects and single clicks “Pharmaceutical cost” and “Parts cost” in the section 213 using the mouse, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays only a section in which necessary items are displayed (designated at reference numeral 219), without displaying distribution chart. At this time, the business viability evaluation part 22 highlights the selected graphic. In this case, how to highlight the graphic may be changed, such as a display in different colors, according to different methods of selecting an item by a double click, a single click, or the like.
If the user selects “Switch display of name/value” of the menu window 220 using the mouse or the like, the business viability evaluation part 22 switches display to the revenue and expenditure structure screen 51a illustrated in
With reference to
With reference to
The business viability evaluation part 22 also displays an entry item window 245 on the revenue and expenditure changes screen 51c. Items of the entry item window 245 correspond to the shaded rows of
With reference to
For convenience of explanation,
Referring back to
The business viability evaluation part 22 may highlight a negative value (for example, with an underline, in red color, or the like). Further, when any of a plurality of values in time series appears as a positive value for the first time, the business viability evaluation part 22 may highlight the positive value (for example, surrounding with a circle or the like). The business viability evaluation part 22 may change how to display a value of an IRR according to a magnitude relationship between the value of the IRR and, for example, a yield of a long-term government bond. An example is that, if IRR Yield of government bond, the value of the IRR is displayed in blue, and otherwise, in red.
With reference to
In this stage, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a row 272a of an input value difference 272 on the scenario screen 51f. At this time, “2,000” is displayed in a Before field 273 of the row 272a; “2,400”, in an After field 274; and “400”, in a Diff. field 275. “400” is a calculation result obtained by subtracting “2,000” from “2,400”. The business viability evaluation part 22 also displays respective calculation results of main items and a management indicator calculated by using an initial value, in a Before field 276 of a main item difference 271. The business viability evaluation part 22 then displays respective calculation results of main items and a management indicator calculated by using the re-entered “2,400” of the air conditioning and initial values of other items, in an After field 277. The business viability evaluation part 22 further displays a value obtained by subtracting the value in the Before field 276 from the value in the After field 277, in a Diff. field 278.
Assume that the user then re-enters “12” as the mean value of the electric rate. In response, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a row 272b of the input value difference 272 on the scenario screen 51f. At this time, “10” is displayed in the Before field 273 of the row 272b; “12”, in the After field 274; and “2”, in the Diff. field 275. Herein, “2” is a calculation result obtained by subtracting “10” from “12”. The business viability evaluation part 22 also displays calculation results of respective main items and a management indicator calculated by using the initial values as they are, in the Before field 276 of the main item difference 271. The business viability evaluation part 22 then displays calculation results of respective main items and a management indicator obtained by using: the mean value “2,400” of the re-entered sales volume; the mean value “12” of the electric rate; and respective initial values of the items, in the After field 277. The business viability evaluation part 22 further displays a value obtained by subtracting the value in the Before field 276 from a value in the After field 277, in the Diff. field 278.
Each time the user changes and re-enters a value of other item, the business viability evaluation part 22 adds a new row to the input value difference 272 and displays the re-entered value in the added row (such rows as 272c and 272d). Similarly, the business viability evaluation part 22 updates and displays the main item difference 271. Note that, if a net present value of a project takes a negative value, “0” is displayed as the IRR of the main item difference 271.
With reference to
In step S301, the data management part 21 displays a revenue and expenditure structure file. More specifically, the data management part 21 displays the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 (
In step S302, the data management part 21 receives an entry of data on a revenue and expenditure structure. More specifically, the data management part 21 receives that a user enters a character string and an operator (such as “+”) into a field of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 via the input unit 12 such as a keyboard, to thereby prepare a row of a revenue and expenditure structure.
In step S303, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a related chart. More specifically, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the related chart screen 51b (
In step S304, the data management part 21 receives an entry of a prerequisite. More specifically, firstly, the data management part 21 receives that the user enters a character string and a value into appropriate fields of the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 via the input unit 12 such as a keyboard, to thereby prepare a row of a prerequisite. At this time, the data management part 21 highlights the operator field 103 and the value1 field 104 of the row into which the user has entered necessary data, using “shading” or the like.
Secondly, the data management part 21 stores the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 to which entry of all necessary data has been completed, in the auxiliary memory unit 15, in response to selection of “Save file” of the menu window 220 (
In step S305, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a revenue and expenditure structure. More specifically, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the revenue and expenditure structure screen 51a (
In step S306, the business viability evaluation part 22 shows revenue and expenditure changes. More specifically, the business viability evaluation part 22 calculates a value of a main item through all periods of the project, based on the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 into which entry of all necessary data has been completed, to thereby create output information in time series. How to compute a probability distribution is as described above.
In step S307, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the revenue and expenditure changes. More specifically, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the revenue and expenditure changes screen 51c of
In step S308, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a probability distribution. More specifically, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the probability distribution screen 51d of
In step S309, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a management indicator. More specifically, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the management indicator screen 51e of
In step S310, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays a scenario. More specifically, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the scenario screen 51f of
An order from steps S307 to S310 can be arbitrarily changed. At an arbitrary point of time from steps S307 to S310, the business viability evaluation part 22 switches the display among the revenue and expenditure structure screen 51a through the scenario screen 51f, in response to selection by the user of tags corresponding to the screens 51a to 51f of the business viability evaluation screen 51.
In step S311, the business viability evaluation part 22 determines whether or not an instruction of “Re-calculate” is received. More specifically, if the business viability evaluation part 22 receives an entry of an instruction from the user to create time-series output information of a value of a main item using a given method (if “YES” in step S311), the business viability evaluation part 22 advances the processing to step S312. If the business viability evaluation part 22 receives a selection of “Exit” of the menu window 220 from the user (if “NO” in step S311), the business viability evaluation part 22 advances the processing to step S313.
In step S312, the business viability evaluation part 22 receives a re-entry of the prerequisite. More specifically, firstly, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the entry item window 245 (
Secondly, the business viability evaluation part 22 receives a selection of any one of entry items of the entry item window 245 from the user and displays a distribution chart 246 (
Thirdly, the business viability evaluation part 22 receives a re-entry of a value of the prerequisite from the user, using the displayed distribution chart.
Referring back to
The first method is a “horizontal translation” as illustrated in
The second method is a “vertical translation” as shown in
The business viability evaluation part 22 returns the processing to step S306. The business viability evaluation part 22 and the like then repeat steps S306 to S312 based on the re-entered prerequisite value and other initial values concerned.
With reference to
<First operation> The user shifts a mean value (or an expected value) of the distribution chart from “1,000” to “500”. The distribution chart herein is prepared based on a current value stored in the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31, that is, an initial value entered at a beginning, or on a value updated from the initial value.
<Second operation> The user shifts a top side of the middle bar from “60” to “80”.
In response, the business viability evaluation part 22 displays the bars of the variable cost with appropriately reduced values (
In step S313, the data management part 21 stores the most recently updated prerequisite. More specifically, the data management part 21 overwrites the data having been temporarily held in the “thirdly” performed operation of step S312 in the loop for the last time, over the revenue and expenditure structure description file 31 and stores the overwritten data in the auxiliary memory unit 15. Note that, if step S312 has not been performed even once, the data management part 21 skips step S313.
Then, the data management part 21 terminates the steps of the entire processing.
In this embodiment, description is made assuming that a discrete probability distribution has three discrete values. However, the number of the discrete values is not limited to three. The business viability evaluation part 22 may display a distribution chart (as shown in
(1) The business viability evaluation apparatus 1 receives an entry of data on a revenue and expenditure structure and a prerequisite with appropriate changes of a row of a table and timing. Further, the business viability evaluation apparatus 1 repeats a processing of: receiving a re-entry of a changed prerequisite while keeping the revenue and expenditure structure unchanged; and displaying a calculation result of a main item or the like based on the re-entry. This has advantageous effects that an erroneous input is reduced and that a user can know a relation between a change in a prerequisite and a calculation result of a main item or the like in an interactive and visible manner.
(2) When a prerequisite is re-entered, the business viability evaluation apparatus 1 displays a distribution chart showing a current value of the prerequisite and receives a manipulation of the displayed distribution chart by the user. This has advantageous effects that the revenue and expenditure structure is not negatively affected and that how to manipulate the displayed distribution chart becomes easy for the user to understand.
(3) The business viability evaluation apparatus 1 receives a prerequisite as a probability distribution and displays the prerequisite as a plurality of discrete values. This has advantageous effects that, even if the prerequisite is not determined as a specific value, an entry of the prerequisite becomes available and that a distribution of the entered value can be easily understood in a visual manner.
(4) The business viability evaluation apparatus 1 differently displays one prerequisite that has its lower-level prerequisite and another prerequisite that does not have. This has an advantageous effect that which item allows a re-entry can be easily recognized in a visual manner.
(5) The business viability evaluation apparatus 1 receives a probability distribution as n units of normally-distributed discrete values (n is a natural number). This has an advantageous effect that a processing speed is improved.
(6) The business viability evaluation apparatus 1 displays a calculation result of a main item as a probability distribution. This has an advantageous effect that viability of a future business can be easily recognized.
The present invention is carried out not only by the above-described embodiment but also by various variations. For example, the above-described embodiment is intended to be illustrative of the present invention in an easily understandable manner and the present invention is not limited to the one that includes all of the components explained in the embodiment. Part of a configuration of an example of the present invention may be substituted by or added to that of another example. Part of a configuration of an example may be deleted.
Part or all of a configuration, a feature, a processing part, a processing unit, or the like may be embodied by hardware by means of, for example, designing of integrated circuits. The above-described configuration, feature, or the like may be embodied by software in which, for example, a processor interprets and executes a program which realizes the feature. Data of a program, a table, a file, and the like for realizing such a feature can be stored in a storage device including a memory, a hard disk, and a SSD (Solid State Drive) or in a storage medium including an IC card, an SD card, and a DVD.
In the present invention, only a control line and an information line which are deemed necessary for explanation are illustrated, and not all of them which may be necessary as a product are illustrated. In practice, almost all configurations are connected to each other.
Number | Date | Country | Kind |
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2013-159503 | Jul 2013 | JP | national |