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1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates generally to operation of a market and particularly to calculating a settlement price of a product traded at the market.
2. Background of the Invention
An exchange provides one or more venues for the purchase and sale of various types of products including financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, futures contracts, options, cash, swaps, and other similar instruments. A futures contract is a contract to purchase or sell an underlying commodity or financial instrument for delivery in the future at a price that is determined at the initiation of the contract.
Generally, the exchange establishes specifications for each product traded on a market. The specifications define at least the product traded in the market, minimum quantities that must be traded, and a minimum price increment in which the product can be traded. For some types of products, for example, futures contracts for commodities, the specification may further defines a quantity of the underlying commodity represented by one unit (or lot) of the product, an expiration date, and a delivery date for the underlying goods or financial instruments.
A bid is an order by a trader seeking to buy a quantity of the product and an offer is an order by a by a trader seeking to sell a quantity of the product. An order may include a bid or offer price and a quantity to be bought or sold, respectively. For example, a bid for a futures contract may be for a purchase of a quantity of 200 contracts at 95 dollars each.
Typically, only authorized traders are allowed to trade directly on the exchange. However, brokerages or persons who are not affiliated with the exchange may also place orders through authorized traders. Traders who trade on an exchange must have accounts at an authorized clearing firm. The authorized clearing firm guarantees any obligations incurred by the trader to a central clearing house associated with the exchange. Each trader's account at the authorized clearing firm is marked to market periodically (typically, daily) and subject to minimum performance bond (i.e., margin) requirements established by the exchange. The performance bond represents a good faith deposit by the trader to guarantee performance and represents a minimum amount of protection against potential losses incurred by the trader. Should the performance bond on deposit in a trader's account fall below a designated level, the account must be re-margined to the initial performance bond level. To determine if re-margining is required, all open positions held by the trader are marked to market during or at the end of each trading session by determining a settlement price and marking open positions to the settlement price. A net change in the value of a trader's account is computed based upon the settlement price and a value of all the open positions held in a trader's account is updated to reflect the net change. Without re-margining of the trader's account, the trader's ability to fulfill delivery obligations may be put in risk if the trader accumulates losses over time. Periodic settlement of accounts assures that all parties involved in trading through an exchange are solvent and can meet their obligations to one another and to the exchange.
In some cases, the settlement price that is used to mark to market the account of a trader who holds an open position in a product is related to the price at which the product was traded in the market. Determination of the settlement price in this manner is described in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 11/891,746, filed on Aug. 13, 2007, that is entitled “Method of Computing a Settlement Price,” has attorney reference number 80047/40200, and is incorporated herein by reference.
In other cases, the settlement price of a futures contract is based on the price or value of the product underlying the futures contract. For example, the daily settlement price of a futures contract based on an index is based on the value of the index at a predetermined time of each trading day. In volatile markets, the index may be calculated multiple times each day and margin requirements for traders and clearing firms may be adjusted in accordance with the calculated index.
An index may be considered a gauge of performance in a market. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial average is an index that can be used gauge performance of stocks of industrial companies that are traded in U.S. Exchanges. Similarly, an index for a commodity or traded product may be used to track the price of the commodity in one or more markets. For example, an index may provide a gauge for the price of corn (or another commodity) in the United States over time. One way to calculate the value of such an index is to poll each purchaser of corn (e.g., a grain elevator or warehouse) that purchases corn to determine the price being bid by the purchaser. The value of the index for corn may be calculated by averaging the prices being bid by all of the purchasers polled. A weighted average may also be used to calculate an index by multiplying a price paid by each purchaser with a weighting factor associated with the purchaser and calculating a sum the weighted prices. The value of the index is the result of the division of the sum of the weighted prices and a sum of the weighting factors. The weighting factors may reflect the relative size of the purchaser (i.e., number of transactions per annum, number of bushels of corn purchased by the purchaser, the time of day of the bid, or the location of the purchaser) or may indicate some other quality of the purchaser.
For agricultural products, the purchasers tend to be local entities near the farms where the agricultural product is harvested. Some purchasers purchase directly from a farmer and other purchasers may purchase commodities from, typically, smaller purchasers. The price paid by a purchaser may vary locally (or regionally) because of, for example, local growing conditions, local demand, costs of transporting the commodity between the purchaser and other purchasers, end-users or processors, etc.
Because of the local nature of purchasing and warehousing of agricultural products there are many purchasers of such products. For example, there are over 2,800 grain elevators in the United States that purchase corn; over 1,700 grain elevators that purchase wheat; and over 2,500 grain elevators that purchase soybeans. In addition there are over 2,100 feedlots that purchase cattle and over 500 energy wholesalers that purchase electricity. In addition, there are over 1,700 fuel wholesalers in the United States that sell motor fuel to the transportation industry. Calculating a value of an index for an agricultural product by polling each purchaser of the product requires a significant amount of time and, therefore, the daily value of the index may not be available in time for such value to be used to manage intra-day risk associated with a trader or as the settlement price for a futures contract based on the index.
Even if some of the purchasers provide price information via network connections between the entity collecting the price information and the purchasers, a staff member may still have to call the purchaser to verify the information provided thereby. Also, smaller or less affluent purchasers may not have the capabilities necessary to automate the price reporting. Further, purchasers located in remote or very rural areas may not have access to the types of communications infrastructure necessary to automatically report price information. It should be apparent that for at least these reasons, and for other reasons that may be apparent to one having skill in the art, calculating an index for a product having a large number of purchasers requires significant resources (i.e., time and resources). It should also be apparent that the resources required for calculating the index increase as the number of purchasers from whom price information must be obtained increases. The resource requirements are compounded when the index needs to be calculated by a particular time each trading day or multiple times each trading day for settling of futures contracts based on the index or to manage risk associated with the traders who trade in such futures contracts.
In one aspect of the present invention a method of calculating an index that represents a price of a commodity includes identifying a first subset of purchasers from a plurality of purchasers and randomly selecting a second subset of purchasers from the first subset. Prices from purchasers of the second subset are obtained and an index is developed by calculating a statistic of such prices.
In another aspect of the invention, a method of trading an instrument associated with a commodity in a market includes identifying a plurality of purchasers of the commodity and designate a subset of the plurality of purchasers from whom to obtain prices. A first index is calculated in accordance with a statistic of prices obtained from purchasers randomly selected from the subset, and a second index is calculated from prices obtained from the plurality of purchasers. The first index is evaluated to determine whether a trader may trade the instrument in the market.
In still another aspect of the invention, a method of measuring prices of a commodity offered by purchasers includes associating each of the purchases into a first category and into a second category in accordance with at least one predetermined criterion. A first and a second subset of purchasers are selected from the purchasers associated with the first and second category, respectively. Prices are obtained from a predetermined number of purchasers randomly selected from the first category and from a predetermined number of purchasers randomly selected from the second category. An index is calculated in accordance with a statistic of such prices and the index is transmitted.
Other aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent upon consideration of the following detailed description.
A sum of prices obtained from each of the purchasers that are represented by the boxes 104A-D is calculated. The index is calculated by dividing the sum of prices by the number of prices obtained (which for the purchasers represented in
The number of categories shown in
Note that with respect to the category represented by the circle 202B in the region represented by the box 200B, all of the 10 purchasers of the category are in the subset that is representative of the category. Further, as shown by the boxes 208B and 210B, prices are to be obtained from all of the purchasers in the subset each time an index is calculated. This situation may occur, for example, if there is significant diversity among the purchasers in the category and a representative subset of such purchasers cannot be formulated.
In contrast, as shown by the box 218C, prices are obtained from only 5 of the purchasers in the category represented by the circle 206C. Further, the 5 purchasers are selected from 25 purchasers that comprise the subset that is representative of all of the purchasers in the category represented by the box 216C. This situation may occur, for example, if there is little diversity among the purchasers in a particular category and a few purchasers in the category are sufficient to form a subset that is representative of the total.
It should be apparent that the number of regions and the number of purchasers therein, the number of categories and the number of purchasers therein, and the number of purchasers in subsets and the number of purchasers randomly selected therefrom described herein above are for exemplary purposes only and that such quantities may vary in various embodiments.
In order to calculate an index price for a commodity, each of the randomly selected purchasers represented by the boxes 210A-C, 214A-B, and 218A-C are contacted to obtain the price being paid thereby for the commodity (as is evident in
In some embodiments, the randomly selected purchasers, for example those represented by the boxes 210A-C, 214A-C, and 218A-C, are contacted first to obtain prices offered thereby for the commodity to calculate a first index price for the commodity in the manner described above. After the first index price is calculated and published, the remaining purchasers of the commodity, for example the remaining purchasers in the regions represented by the boxes 200A-C, are contacted and the prices provided by such purchasers are used to calculate a second index price. The second index price may also be published. In some embodiments, the first index price is used as an intra-day price and the second index price may be used as an end-of-trading session index price. The intra-day price may be used to assess risk during a trading session or to consider margin requirements of traders. The end-of-trading session index price may be used to mark-to-market accounts of traders or for settling positions held by traders. It should be apparent that multiple intra-day prices may be calculated
The block 608 sets the value of a variable S to the purchasers in the subset of the ith region that may be contacted. In some embodiments, the variable S is an array of information about the purchasers. Other ways of storing and managing the information about a group of purchasers (such as those represented by the variable S) that could be used to store such information should be apparent to those who have skill in the art.
The block 610 sets a value of a variable N to the number of purchasers represented by the variable S that are to be contacted. For example, with respect to the scenario illustrated in
Continuing with
In some cases, the block 612 calculates a weighted sum of the prices, wherein a weighting factor is applied to each price from a purchaser and the weighted price is included in the sum. In such cases, block 612 adds the weighted sum of the prices provided by the randomly selected purchasers to the value of the variable T. The block 612 also calculates a sum of the weighting factors used to calculate the weighted sum and add the sum of the weighting factors to the value of the variable W.
A block 614 increments the value of the counter i and proceeds to the block 606. The blocks 606 through 614 loop in this manner until the value of counter i is no longer less than or equal to the value of the variable R when tested by the block 606. When the value of the counter i exceeds the value of the variable R, the block 606 branches to a block 616, which sets a value of a variable Index to the value that results from dividing the value of the variable T (i.e., weighted sum of prices) by the value of the variable W (i.e., sum of weighting factors).
A block 618 publishes the value of the variable Index by transmitting such value to reporting systems. The block 618 may also make the value of the variable Index available to systems used by exchanges, clearing firms, clearing houses, etc. or to staff members at such entities.
A block 710 determines whether the value of the counter j is less than or equal to the value of the variable C, and if so, branches to the block 712. The block 712 sets the value of a variable S to information about purchasers that include the subset in the jth category of the ith region that may be contacted. A block 714 sets the value of a variable N to the number of purchasers that are represented by the value of the variable S that are to be randomly selected and from whom prices are to be obtained. A block 716 increments the value of the variable T by a sum of prices obtained from the randomly selected purchasers, wherein the sum may be a weighted or an unweighted sum of the prices as described above. The block 716 also increments the value of the variable W by the sum of the weighting factors applied to the prices in calculating a weighted sum of the prices (if a non-weighted sum is calculated, then the value of the variable W is incremented by a value that is identical to the value of the variable N).
The block 718 adds one to the value of the counter j and proceeds to the block 710. As described above, the block 710 compares the value of the counter j to the value of the variable C and if the value of the counter j is less than or equal to the value of the variable C branches to the block 712. Otherwise, the block 710 branches to the block 720, which adds 1 to the value of the counter i. Thereafter, the block 706 compares the values of the counter i and the variable R and branches to the block 708 if the value of the counter i is less than or equal to the value of the variable R; otherwise, the block 706 branches to a block 722. The block 722 sets a value of a variable Index to the result of dividing the value of the variable T by the value of the variable W.
A block 724 thereafter publishes or provides the value of the variable Index as described above.
A block 806 compares the values of the variables i and N and if the value of the variable i is less than or equal to the value of the variable N, the block 806 branches to a block 808. The block 808 selects the ith purchaser from the purchasers represented by the value of the variable R. A block 810 obtains a price being paid for the commodity from the ith purchaser selected by the block 808 and sets the value of a variable Pi to such price. In some embodiments, information about the purchaser selected at the block 808 is provided to a staff member, who calls the selected purchaser to obtain the price. In such embodiments, the price obtained by the staff member is provided at an input (not shown) to the block 810, which sets the value of the variable Pi to the value of the price provided by the staff member. In other embodiments, the price is obtained electronically from a system operated by the purchaser selected at the block 808.
A block 812 determines a value of a weighting factor Wi that is to be applied to the price obtained at the block 810. In some embodiments, that value of the weighting factor Wi is part of the information about purchasers stored in the values of the variables R and/or S, and in such embodiments the block 810 extracts the value therefrom. In other embodiments, the value of the weighting factor Wi is determined by querying a database using information about the purchaser that is stored in the values of the variables R and/or S.
A block 814 calculates the product the price provided by the ith purchaser (Pi) and the weighting factor Wi and adds the product to the value of the variable P. The block 814 also adds the value of the weighting factor Wi to the value of the variable W.
A block 816 increments the value of the counter i and proceeds to the block 806. The block 806 once again compares the values of the counter i. The blocks 808 through 816 are executed as long as the value of the counter i is less than or equal to the value of the variable N. Upon determining that the value of the counter i exceeds the value of the variable N, the block 806 branches to a block 818. The block 818 sets the sum of prices to the value of the variable P and the sum of weighting factors to the value of the variable W. The use of these sums was shown above in connection with the descriptions of the blocks 612 and 716 of
Some embodiments 800 do not use the variable W if an identical weighting factor is applied to the prices obtained from purchasers. In such embodiments, the block 814 does not need to add the weighting factor Wi to the value of the variable W. Instead, the sum of weighting factors is identical to the value of the variable N (i.e., the number of purchasers contacted) multiplied by the weighting factor.
Some embodiments 800 do not obtain prices serially from purchasers. Instead the block 802 generates a call list that provides information about purchasers who are to be contacted including a name of the purchaser, contact person at the purchaser's facility, one or more telephone numbers, etc. One or more staff members use the call list to obtain prices from purchasers on the call list. The staff member thereafter enters the price information into the system at blocks 808 and 810 of embodiment 800. In some cases, the block 808 prompts the staff member to enter information and the block 810 reads information provided by the staff member. In other cases, all of the price information is entered into a database or file and the block 810 reads the price information from such database or file (the block 808 may, in such cases, generate an appropriate query for the database).
Although the embodiments herein describe calculating the index by calculating an average or a weighted average of the prices obtained from purchasers, it should be apparent that the index may be calculating another statistic of the prices. For example, other types of averages may be used such as a geometric mean, a quadratic mean, harmonic mean, etc. In addition, the index may be based on statistics such as a median or a mode of the prices.
The exemplary embodiments described herein in
Numerous modifications to the present invention will be apparent to those skilled in the art in view of the foregoing description. Accordingly, this description is to be construed as illustrative only and is presented for the purpose of enabling those skilled in the art to make and use the invention and to teach the best mode of carrying out same. The exclusive rights to all modifications which come within the scope of the appended claims are reserved.