NSF Award
2428736
Insect herbivores such as aphids play outsized roles in both natural and agricultural ecosystems. Consequently, understanding factors that control aphid abundance is critical for managing many ecosystems in the future. Rising temperatures can directly impact aphid development, growth, and survival and shift how these insect herbivores interact with plants and other organisms in their environment. Biotic interactions such as those that influence food resources or vulnerability to predators may be especially important in determining whether aphids and other insect herbivores are able to persist and adapt to rapid climate change. This project will study the effects of warming and biotic interactions on aphids to improve understanding of factors that affect herbivore abundance under current and future climate scenarios. Aphids are sensitive to the direct effects of warming temperatures, but their abundance also depends on complex interactions with microbes, plants, and other insects as well as genetic differences between aphid populations. Through a series of field experiments in a well-studied Rocky Mountain ecosystem, this project will test how interactions among these factors can lead to unexpected patterns in aphid abundance. Findings from this work will be used to create models that predict how aphid populations are likely to respond to rapid climate change, which can inform insect monitoring, conservation, and management. Results from this work will also be incorporated into educational materials for K-12 students with the goal of advancing quantitative skills in climate change education. The PIs will also recruit scholars from underrepresented and underserved communities to work on this project and foster their professional development through interdisciplinary, team-based science. Data from this work will be integrated in a graphical modeling interface and educational modules to support dissemination of project results to interested stakeholders.<br/><br/>Interactions between species within multi-trophic networks can facilitate or constrain how organisms respond to rapid climate change. However, biotic interactions can shift with rising temperatures, altering eco-evolutionary dynamics and network stability in ways that are challenging to predict. Characterizing physiological and eco-evolutionary mechanisms that drive the population dynamics of keystone species within interaction networks is critical for predicting how these systems will respond or adapt to novel environments. Insect herbivores are keystone species in many ecosystems, and ecologists have long sought to understand biotic and abiotic factors that govern insect herbivore dynamics. The proposed research will integrate long-term field observations and manipulative experiments with agent-based models to develop a mechanistic understanding of temperature responses in a well-studied subalpine plant-aphid system. This work will provide a robust understanding of temperature effects on aphid population dynamics by (1) integrating the direct effects of temperature on aphid development with indirect effects driven by shifts in above- and belowground interactions, (2) assessing local adaptation within plant-aphid interactions across a temperature gradient; and (3) using these mechanistic relationships in a hierarchical modeling framework to forecast aphid dynamics under variable climate scenarios.<br/><br/>This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
