NSF Award
1261393
With this award, the investigators will examine physical processes occurring in growing and evolving convective clouds as they begin to produce lightning. The study will utilize: Satellite-based cloud observations and retrieved cloud properties, including time-series (5-15-min) of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) visible and infrared (IR) measurements; S-band dual-polarimetric National Weather Service Surveillance 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar observations across the United States; Ground-based VHF Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) observations (e.g., over Northern Alabama, Central Oklahoma); Observations collected during the Cloud processes of the main precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribution to cloud resolving modeling and to the Global Precipitation Measurement(CHUVA) campaign; Retrieved aerosol observations from satellites such as MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and ground, such as from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). <br/><br/>The award seeks to address a fundamental question in lightning prediction: How does the combination of multi-scale processes influence total lightning production? The corollary to this is: How do we obtain a longer lead time (>10-15 min) in lightning forecasting?<br/><br/>The specific goals are: (1) To improve understanding of the physical processes and precursory signals of lightning evolution within the 0-1 h timeframe through the collection and interpretation of high-temporal and spatial resolution space- and ground-based remote sensing observations of hydrometeor and aerosol type, amount and distribution; (2) To seek improvement in lightning amount nowcasting skill for longer lead-time (~30-45 min) and higher accuracy using combined data from geostationary satellite observations, radar and models; (3) To significantly bolster graduate- and undergraduate-level university education directly through transition of scientific discoveries to students, and indirectly via curriculum enhancements.<br/><br/>The Broader Impacts will be improving understanding of lightning processes that are inherently difficult to observe, more skillful 0-1 hour quantitative lightning nowcasts, and exploitation of WSR-88D dual-polarimetric data. Improved lightning nowcasts will benefit the general public, and especially the aviation industry that suffer substantial costs due to lightning-disrupted ground operations. Relatively few studies have developed physical relationships related to lightning nowcasting using combined datasets with a focus on satellite data. Use of WSR-88D radar in conjunction with satellite is timely in light of new observations from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager and Geostationary Lightning Mapper expected in 2016, and from the Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager in ~2019. In addition, collaboration with other university scientists and graduate students will further extend this research to the larger academic and educational community.
