NSF Award
0126408
Understanding and forecasting the intensity and structural characteristics of deep convective storms as a function of the storm environment is an interesting scientific problem and of great interest to operational forecasters. This research seeks to explore several new dimensions of the large parameter space that regulates the morphology and intensity of convective storms. The study will be undertaken using a full-physics three dimensional cloud simulation model, initialized with environments designed to permit independent investigation of eight separate parameters that are believed to be responsible for much of the sensitivity of storm structure to storm environment. Exploratory studies have already demonstrated the existence of large sensitivities of storms to most of these parameters, in at least portions of the full parameter space. Sensitivities already found include bulk convective available potential energy (CAPE) and bulk shear, the shapes of parcel buoyancy and shear profiles, and the depths of both the mixed layer and moist layer. The shape of the relative humidity profile and the temperature at cloud base are other parameters of potential importance. <br/><br/>Although the preliminary results already reported constitute a first step in exploring many of the relevant parameter space dimensions, the findings need to be extended to embrace a larger range of values of parameters. In order to address these needs, this project will expand the previous research by building and analyzing a more complete archive of idealized cloud simulations. Progress is expected to be rapid because the tools needed to build the simulation environments and to analyze the model output are already mostly in place. In the analysis of the model data, emphasis will be placed on quantifying the storm morphology variations and on documenting the effects of the various competing physical mechanisms. <br/><br/>It is expected that study of these simulations will significantly enhance understanding of convective storm behavior within a broad range of environmental conditions and will allow progress towards the goal of improving storm forecasts.
