Patent Application
20250148844
The present invention relates to a component state estimation apparatus, a component state estimation system, a component state estimation method, and a storage medium.
In order to manage a product formed of a plurality of products, it is important to recognize a state of each of the components. Patent Document 1 discloses a server that manages user equipment. The server acquires time-series data about detection information of a sensor installed in the user equipment, and analyzes the time-series data. Then, the server generates a message explaining a usage improvement point for extending a life of the user equipment and reducing a possibility of occurrence of a failure, and transmits the generated message to the user equipment.
Patent Document 1: Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2021-110998
In order to manage a product, it is important to estimate a future deterioration state of a component included in the product. However, Patent Document 1 described above does not disclose estimation of a future deterioration state of a component.
One example of an object of the present invention is, in view of the problem described above, to provide a component state estimation apparatus, a component state estimation system, a component state estimation method, and a storage medium that can estimate a future deterioration state of a component included in a product.
One aspect of the present invention provides a component state estimation apparatus including:
One aspect of the present invention provides a component state estimation system including:
One aspect of the present invention provides a component state estimation method including,
One aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a program causing a computer to perform:
One aspect of the present invention can provide a component state estimation apparatus, a component state estimation system, a component state estimation method, and a storage medium that can estimate a future deterioration state of a component included in a product.
Hereinafter, example embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that, in all of the drawings, a similar component has a similar reference sign, and description thereof will be appropriately omitted.
The acquisition unit 110 acquires state information and operating prediction data. The state information indicates a state of a component included in a product. The operating prediction data acquire operating prediction data indicating a prediction result of an operating state of a product until after a lapse of a predetermined period of time.
The estimation unit 120 estimates a deterioration state of a component after a predetermined period of time has elapsed by using the state information and the operating prediction data.
When the component state estimation apparatus 10 is used, a deterioration state of a component after a predetermined period of time has elapsed can be estimated by using the state information and the operating prediction data.
Hereinafter, a detailed example of the component state estimation apparatus 10 will be described.
The product 20 includes a plurality of components. One example of the product 20 is a vehicle such as a car, a car of a train, an airplane, and a portable communication terminal. However, the product 20 is not limited to these. When the product 20 is a car, a component is at least one of a battery, engine oil, a windshield wiper, a headlight, a belt, a tire, and a brake pad. Further, the component is also not limited to these.
The product 20 includes the transmission apparatus 22. The transmission apparatus 22 transmits state information. The state information indicates a state of a component included in the product 20. The state information is, for example, a detected value of a sensor attached to a component and a value computed by using the detected value.
The sensor is, for example, at least one of a voltage sensor, a current sensor, a power sensor, a temperature sensor, and a density sensor, but is not limited to these. For example, when a component is a battery; the state information is at least one of an output voltage, an output current, output power, and an SOC of the battery.
Further, when the state information is computed by using a detected value of a sensor, the state information is computed by using, for example, a past value of the detected value of the sensor. As one example, the state information is a ratio of a detected value of a current sensor to a detected value of a sensor in a state where a component is new. Further, the state information may be computed by using a history of detected values of the sensor.
Herein, various timings at which the transmission apparatus 22 transmits the state information are used. For example, the transmission apparatus 22 may transmit the state information when the transmission apparatus 22 acquires information indicating a request for the state information from the component state estimation apparatus 10. Further, the transmission apparatus 22 may transmit the state information at a predetermined timing. Further, the transmission apparatus 22 may regularly transmit the state information. Note that, when the product 20 is a vehicle, one example of the timing is a timing at which a vehicle inspection or a regular inspection is performed.
Further, when the product 20 is a vehicle, the transmission apparatus 22 may transmit the state information when the vehicle is stopped. Herein, a “vehicle is stopped” means that an engine is stopped when the vehicle includes the engine, and means that a power supply to a motor is not performed or a control unit that controls the power supply is turned off when the vehicle is an electric vehicle.
Further, the component state estimation apparatus 10 is used together with a model generation apparatus 30 in addition to the transmission apparatus 22. When the estimation unit 120 of the component state estimation apparatus 10 estimates a deterioration state of a component after a predetermined period of time has elapsed, the estimation unit 120 uses a model generated by machine learning or statistical processing. The model generation apparatus 30 generates the model and stores the model in the component state estimation apparatus 10. One example of the machine learning performed by the model generation apparatus 30 is heterogeneous mixed learning. One example of the statistical processing performed by the model generation apparatus 30 is a multiple regression analysis.
Then, as described above, the component state estimation apparatus 10 includes the acquisition unit 110 and the estimation unit 120. The component state estimation apparatus 10 further includes an output unit 130 and a model storage unit 140.
The model storage unit 140 stores a model generated by the model generation apparatus 30.
The acquisition unit 110 acquires information to be an explanatory variable of a model to be used by the estimation unit 120. The information includes at least the state information and the operating prediction data. Note that, the acquisition unit 110 may acquire information needed for generating the operating prediction data instead of the operating prediction data.
The operating prediction data are, for example, schedule information indicating an operating schedule of the product 20.
Further, one example of the information needed for generating the operating prediction data is current month and day. In this case, the acquisition unit 110 further generates the operating prediction data by using past track record data about an operating state of the product 20. For example, it is assumed that the acquisition unit 110 acquires track record data about month and day having a similar condition to that of current month and day among pieces of track record data, and the track record data or a result of performing the statistical processing on the track record data is assumed to be the operating prediction data. Herein, “month and day having a similar condition to that of current month and day” indicates that, for example, a unit is the same such as the beginning, the middle, and the end of a month, the season is the same, and month and day are precisely the same (for example, one year ago).
Then, when the product 20 is a vehicle and a component being a target is a battery, the operating prediction data include, for example, at least one of at least one of an average value and an upper limit value of a traveling distance, a traveling time, and a speed, an operating time of a windshield wiper, an operating time of a headlight, an operating time and a setting temperature of an air conditioner, and the number of times an engine is activated (including the number of times of an idling stop of an engine).
Note that, the acquisition unit 110 acquires track record data about an operating state from a storage unit that stores the operating history. The storage unit may further store past state information. The storage unit may be located in the component state estimation apparatus 10, in the product 20, or outside the component state estimation apparatus 10 and the product 20.
Note that, an explanatory variable of a model to be used by the estimation unit 120 may further include track record data about an operating state of the product 20. In this case, the track record data include, for example, a date and time and a length in which the product 20 has been operating. The track record data may further include information indicating a load that has been applied to the product 20 during the operation. When the product 20 is a vehicle, the track record data preferably include, for example, at least one of at least one of an average value and an upper limit value of a traveling distance, a traveling time, and a speed, an operating track record of a windshield wiper, an operating track record of a headlight, an operating time and a setting temperature of an air conditioner, and the number of times an engine is activated (including the number of times of an idling stop of an engine).
An explanatory variable of a model to be used by the estimation unit 120 may further include at least one of past state information about the product 20 and a usage environment (for example, temperature and humidity) of the product 20.
The estimation unit 120 estimates a deterioration state of a component by using information acquired by the acquisition unit 110 and a model stored in the model storage unit 140. Hereinafter, information indicating an estimation result will be described as estimation information.
The estimation information indicates a deterioration state of a component after a predetermined period of time has elapsed. The predetermined period of time is, for example, one day, one week, two weeks, one month, three months, or six months, but is not limited to these. The estimation information is indicated by, for example, a value indicating a deterioration state of a component. Hereinafter, the value will be described as a degree of deterioration. The degree of deterioration is, for example, a proportion of performance at that point in time to initial performance, for example, an SOH in a battery or a degree of decrease in strength of a timing belt, but is not limited to these.
The estimation information may indicate an estimation result of transition of a deterioration state of a component. In this case, as one example of the estimation information, a horizontal axis is an elapsed time (for example, elapsed month and day) from a current time, and a vertical axis is a degree of deterioration of a component.
The output unit 130 outputs the estimation information generated by the estimation unit 120. For example, the output unit 130 outputs the estimation information to a display included in the component state estimation apparatus 10 or an external printing apparatus.
Further, the output unit 130 performs a predetermined output when the estimation information satisfies a reference. The reference used herein indicates that a component has deteriorated and it is better to exchange the component. For example, when the product 20 is a vehicle and a component is a battery; one example of the reference for performing the predetermined output is that at least one of an SOC and a voltage included in the estimation information falls below a reference value. In this case, the predetermined output performed by the output unit 150 indicates a possibility that the vehicle may not be activated when a remaining capacity of the battery runs short.
The reference value is set by, for example, a user of the component state estimation apparatus 10. Further a plurality of the reference values may be set. In this case, a first reference value indicates that, for example, a tendency toward deterioration is appearing, and a reference value after the first reference value, i.e., a second reference value indicates a possibility that deterioration is proceeding. Further, a reference value after the second reference value, i.e., a third reference value indicates that it is better to immediately exchange a component.
Note that, a detailed example of an output condition of predetermined information is, for example, at least one of the following examples. In any of the examples, the estimation information of the estimation unit 120 includes an estimated value of a parameter indicating a state of a component, for example, an estimated value of at least one of an SOC and an output voltage of a battery:
The predetermined information output from the output unit 130 preferably includes information indicating a timing at which a component needs to be exchanged. The timing is, for example, a timing at which an estimated value of a parameter indicating a state of a component falls below a reference value.
Further, the predetermined information output from the output unit 130 may include reference information that needs to be referred in order to suppress deterioration of a component. The reference information includes, for example, information about a usage method and an operating timing of the product 20, for example, a guidance on an operating timing and an operating time. The guidance may include, for example, an operating schedule of the product 20.
For example, when the product 20 is a vehicle including an engine and a component is a battery, it is preferable that the vehicle is regularly operating and the vehicle is not operating for a long time in order to suppress deterioration of the battery. Thus, the output unit 130 may generate, as the reference information, an operating schedule in which the vehicle is regularly operating and the vehicle is not operating for a long time. For example, when the vehicle is a vehicle for distribution, an operating schedule generated by the output unit 130 is delivery plan information about an article by the vehicle. Note that, the delivery plan information includes at least a departure point, a destination point, and a way point by month and day. Further, the delivery warning region information may further include at least one of route information from the departure point to the destination point, an arrival time at the way point, and an arrival time at the destination point.
Note that, the component state estimation apparatus 10 may be a cloud server. In this case, the output unit 130 outputs the estimation information to a terminal possessed by at least one of a user, an owner, and a manager of the product 20, and also performs the predetermined output described above. Then, the terminal displays the estimation information, and also displays the predetermined output.
Further, in
Note that, the output unit 130 may simultaneously output the information illustrated in
The bus 1010 is a data transmission path for allowing the processor 1020, the memory 1030, the storage device 1040, the input/output interface 1050, and the network interface 1060 to transmit and receive data with one another. However, a method for connecting the processor 1020 and the like to one another is not limited to bus connection.
The processor 1020 is a processor achieved by a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), and the like.
The memory 1030 is a main storage apparatus achieved by a random access memory (RAM) and the like.
The storage device 1040 is an auxiliary storage apparatus achieved by a hard disk drive (HDD), a solid state drive (SSD), a removable medium such as a memory card, a read only memory (ROM), or the like. The storage device 1040 stores a program module that achieves each function (for example, the acquisition unit 110, the estimation unit 120, and the output unit 130) of the component state estimation apparatus 10. The processor 1020 reads each program module onto the memory 1030 and executes the program module, and each function associated with the program module is achieved. Further, the storage device 1040 also functions as the model storage unit 140.
The input/output interface 1050 is an interface for connecting the component state estimation apparatus 10 and various types of input/output equipment.
The network interface 1060 is an interface for connecting the component state estimation apparatus 10 to a network. The network is, for example, a local area network (LAN) and a wide area network (WAN). A method of connection to the network by the network interface 1060 may be wireless connection or wired connection. The component state estimation apparatus 10 communicates with the transmission apparatus 22 and the model generation apparatus 30 via the input/output interface 1060.
Next, the estimation unit 120 of the component state estimation apparatus 10 generates the estimation information. As described above, the estimation information indicates a deterioration state of a component after a predetermined period of time has elapsed (step S20). Details of the processing performed by the estimation unit 120 are as described by using
Next, the output unit 130 of the component state estimation apparatus 10 outputs the estimation information (step S40). Details of the processing performed by the output unit 130 are as described by using
As described above, according to the present example embodiment, the acquisition unit 110 of the component state estimation apparatus 10 acquires state information and operating prediction data. Then, the estimation unit 120 of the component state estimation apparatus 10 estimates a deterioration state of a component after a predetermined period of time has elapsed by using a model. Then, an explanatory variable of the model includes at least the state information and the operating prediction data. Thus, when the component state estimation apparatus 10 is used, a future deterioration state of a component included in the product 20 can be estimated.
While the example embodiments of the present invention have been described with reference to the drawings, the example embodiments are only exemplification of the present invention, and various configurations other than the above-described example embodiments can also be employed.
Further, the plurality of steps (pieces of processing) are described in order in the plurality of flowcharts used in the above-described description, but an execution order of steps performed in each of the example embodiments is not limited to the described order. In each of the example embodiments, an order of illustrated steps may be changed within an extent that there is no harm in context. Further, each of the example embodiments described above can be combined within an extent that a content is not inconsistent.
A part or the whole of the above-described example embodiment may also be described in supplementary notes below; which is not limited thereto.
| Filing Document | Filing Date | Country | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCT/JP2022/008770 | 3/2/2022 | WO |
