Computational Earthquake is a new earthquake forecasting method.
The moon is a satellite of the earth and travels around it in orbit. Since the earth is a globe and rotates continuously, ocean blocks at different distances to the moon are subject to different gravitational pulls of the moon, causing the tidal phenomena. Earthquakes can be forecast by observing heavenly bodies that run in periodic patterns, which accounts for the periodic return of major earthquakes. The existing theories on earthquakes fail to provide an effective forecast because earthquakes do not result from the internal factors of the earth, but rather from the margin of gravity produced by the motion of heavenly bodies.
A 3D stereogram of the tectonic plate fault can be drawn on the basis of existing earthquake energy observations, earthquake epicenter and depth of the seismic focus, together with the relationship of the marginal gravitational forces caused by the motion of the earth and heavenly bodies. This can not only create an empirical equation for earthquake forecasting, but also simulate the earthquake energy, earthquake epicenter and depth of seismic focus in the case of the prospective motion of heavenly bodies. The national disaster prevention agency should establish an earthquake forecast center and carry out analyses according to the latest simulation results in order to determine whether there will be an earthquake. It should make forecasts in a way that is similar to weather forecasting, but based on the possible position of the epicenter, the possible depth of the seismic focus, the size of energy generated from plates sliding, the earthquake intensity across the country, etc. Based on the established simulated earthquake model, earthquakes over the coming centuries can be calculated and deduced with the use of super computers to accurately estimate the occurrence probability of earthquakes (in the earthquake regression period of 475 years) that will exceed the designed earthquake-resistance level of the buildings during their 50-year designed service life. Specification formulation for the structural design of earthquake resistance in civil engineering can be based on the accurate estimation of the earthquake intensity across the country, and its maximum surface acceleration via the earthquake model. Since the motion of the heavenly bodies has an influence on the exceedance probability, the exceedance probability is constant in the short term; however, the exceedance probability is not constant in the long term. Hence, continuous calculations are necessary to update the probabilistic data, and estimate the required earthquake resistance across the country in accordance with the structural reliability theory. Along with the calculation of earthquake simulation results, the government needs to formulate a uniform earthquake simulation input and output format, as well as provide a three-dimensional image browser for the earthquake simulation results to enable those concerned with the latest earthquake simulation results to download the relevant simulation data at any time for browsing, studying and analyzing.