1. Field of the Invention
In general, the present invention provides a computer-implemented method, system and program product for modeling a consumer decision process. Specifically, the process invention provides a way to objectively quantify the impact of specific customer actions and market influences on a consumer's purchase decision.
2. Related Art
Understanding the elements of the consumer decision process has long been a goal of business as one of the important keys to better targeting of marketing, customer service, overall business strategy, and other customer-impacting operations. Recent surveys have suggested that many businesses plan to focus on revenue growth as the key factor in improving their market position over the next few years. One area of focus for creating revenue growth is the identification of new goods/services. However, realizing fast and efficient growth requires capturing a greater share of the existing customer base, and introducing goods/services into the proper channels and markets. To do this, businesses need a better understanding of the consumer decision process. Unfortunately, decision making is an extremely complex and difficult process to quantify, especially in categories where the goods/services are complex and the purchase process is typically long.
Historically, there has been no truly reliable way to quantify the priority and impact of elements on how, when and where a consumer finally purchases a product. The complexity of the process is in at least four dimensions: (1) the stages though which a consumer passes in making a purchase decision; (2) the elements (e.g., needs, activities or attributes) that comprise a stage; (3) the impact of an element on a stage and, ultimately, on the final decision; and (4) identifying the most important moments of a purchase decision (e.g., the timing).
To date, much qualitative research has been done in this area. However, given the limited nature of qualitative research (e.g., scale, scope, etc.), the results have not been projectible up to a market-level population or target audience. As such, no previous system has provided an accurate was to model or predict the consumer decision process. That is, no existing system provides a quantitative approach to understanding the consumer decision process. Such an approach could yield a more accurate and reliable model upon which businesses can base their own strategic decisions.
In view of the foregoing, there exists a need for a computer-implemented method, system and program product for modeling a consumer decision process. Specifically, a need exists for a system to quantitatively validate hypotheses that are developed using qualitative methods. A further need exists for a system that is capable of determining the elements that impact a purchase decision, and the decision stages in the decision process. Still yet, a need exists for a system that can map the elements to the stages, and weight them accordingly so that a model of the consumer decision process can be developed.
In general, the present invention provides a computer-implemented method, system and program product for (quantitatively) modeling a consumer decision process. Specifically, under the present invention information corresponding to a purchase decision is qualitatively collected (e.g., through in-depth interviews) from a first set of consumers. The information is used to determine the complete set of elements that impact the purchase decision. Thereafter, a process map is developed that incorporates the elements and the decision stages in the consumer decision process. The set of elements is then quantitatively validated based on survey data received from a second, bigger set of consumers. If the set of elements are validated, they will be mapped to the set of decision stages based on the survey data, and assigned impact scores. Based on the mapping and the scores, a global map that models the consumer decision process is developed.
A first aspect of the present invention provides a computer-implemented method for modeling a consumer decision process, comprising: receiving information corresponding to a purchase decision from a first set of consumers, and using the information to determine a set of elements that impact the purchase decision; determining a set of decision stages in the consumer decision process based on the set of elements; quantitatively validating the set of elements based on survey data received from a second set of consumers; mapping the set of elements to the set of decision stages after the validating; and assigning impact scores to each of the set of elements for each of the set of decision stages.
A second aspect of the present invention provides a system for modeling a consumer decision process, comprising: an input reception system for receiving information corresponding to a purchase decision from a first set of consumers; an element determination system for using the information to determine a set of elements that impact the purchase decision; a decision stage system for determining a set of decision stages in the consumer decision process based on the set of elements; a validation system for validating the set of elements based on survey data received from a second set of consumers; an element mapping system for mapping the set of elements to the set of decision stages after the validating; and an element scoring system for assigning impact scores to each of the set of elements for each of the set of decision stages.
A third aspect of the present invention provides a program product stored on a recordable medium for modeling a consumer decision process, which when executed, comprises: program code for receiving information corresponding to a purchase decision from a first set of consumers; program code for using the information to determine a set of elements that impact the purchase decision; program code determining a set of decision stages in the consumer decision process based on the set of elements; program code for validating the set of elements based on survey data received from a second set of consumers; program code for mapping the set of elements to the set of decision stages after the validating; and program code for assigning impact scores to each of the set of elements for each of the set of decision stages.
A fourth aspect of the present invention provides a system for deploying an application for modeling a consumer decision process, comprising: a computer infrastructure being operable to: receive information corresponding to a purchase decision from a first set of consumers, and using the information to determine a set of elements that impact the purchase decision; determine a set of decision stages in the consumer decision process based on the set of elements; validate the set of elements based on survey data received from a second set of consumers; map the set of elements to the set of decision stages after the validating; and assign impact scores to each of the set of elements for each of the set of decision stages.
A fifth aspect of the present invention provides computer software embodied in a propagated signal for deploying an application for modeling a consumer decision process, the computer software comprising instructions to cause a computer system to perform the following functions: receive information corresponding to a purchase decision from a first set of consumers, and using the information to determine a set of elements that impact the purchase decision; determine a set of decision stages in the consumer decision process based on the set of elements; validate the set of elements based on survey data received from a second set of consumers; map the set of elements to the set of decision stages after the validating; and assign impact scores to each of the set of elements for each of the set of decision stages.
Therefore, the present invention provides a computer-implemented method, system and program product for modeling a consumer decision process.
These and other features of this invention will be more readily understood from the following detailed description of the various aspects of the invention taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in which:
The drawings are not necessarily to scale. The drawings are merely schematic representations, not intended to portray specific parameters of the invention. The drawings are intended to depict only typical embodiments of the invention, and therefore should not be considered as limiting the scope of the invention. In the drawings, like numbering represents like elements.
For convenience purposes, the Detailed Description of the Invention will have the following sections:
I. General Description
II. Computer Implementation
I. General Description
As indicated above, the present invention provides a computer-implemented method, system and program product for (quantitatively) modeling a consumer decision process. Specifically, under the present invention information corresponding to a purchase decision is qualitatively collected (e.g., through in-depth interviews) from a first set of consumers. The information is used to determine the complete set of elements that impact the purchase decision. Thereafter, a process map is developed that incorporates the elements and the decision stages in the consumer decision process. The set of elements is then quantitatively validated based on survey data received from a second, bigger set of consumers. If the set of elements are validated, they will be mapped to the set of decision stages based on the survey data, and assigned impact scores. Based on the mapping and the scores, a global map that models the consumer decision process is developed.
It should be understood in advance that the teachings of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the purchase of an appliance. However, it should also be understood that this is intended as an illustrative example only, and that the present invention could be applied to the purchase of any type of goods/services.
II. Computerized Implementation
Referring now to
As depicted, computer system 12 generally includes processing unit 14, memory 16, bus 18, input/output (I/O) interfaces 20, external devices/resources 22 and storage unit 24. Processing unit 14 may comprise a single processing unit, or be distributed across one or more processing units in one or more locations, e.g., on a client and server. Memory 16 may comprise any known type of data storage and/or transmission media, including magnetic media, optical media, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), a data cache, a data object, etc. Moreover, similar to processing unit 14, memory 16 may reside at a single physical location, comprising one or more types of data storage, or be distributed across a plurality of physical systems in various forms.
I/O interfaces 20 may comprise any system for exchanging information to/from an external source. External devices/resources 22 may comprise any known type of external device, including speakers, a CRT, LED screen, hand-held device, keyboard, mouse, voice recognition system, speech output system, printer, monitor/display, facsimile, pager, etc. Bus 18 provides a communication link between each of the components in computer system 12 and likewise may comprise any known type of transmission link, including electrical, optical, wireless, etc.
Storage unit 24 can be any system (e.g., a database, etc.) capable of providing storage for information As such, storage unit 24 could include one or more storage devices, such as a magnetic disk drive or an optical disk drive. In another embodiment, storage unit 24 includes data distributed across, for example, a local area network (LAN), wide area network (WAN) or a storage area network (SAN) (not shown). Although not shown, additional components, such as cache memory, communication systems, system software, etc., may be incorporated into computer system 12.
Shown in memory 16 is CDP modeling system 30, which includes input reception system 32, element determination system 34, process mapping system 36, decision stage system 38, validation system 40, element mapping system 42, element scoring system 44 and global mapping system 46. These systems represent program code that facilitate the CDP modeling process of the present invention.
In a typical embodiment, the process begins by receiving information from a set of consumers 50 about a purchase decision. In an illustrative example, assume the purchase decision focuses on a home appliance. This information gathering step is generally performed qualitatively and is conducted based on one-on-one interviews. To this extent, the information can be manually keyed into computer system 12 by an administrator or the like, or the interviews could be individually conducted with set of consumers 50 directly over a network or the like. In any event, the information (e.g., interview data) will be received by input reception system 32 and used to generate an initial hypothesis (or hypotheses) about the CDP. The one-on-one interviews differ from traditional qualitative research in that they are entirely emergent or completely open-ended interviews. This helps avoid any bias of a research team's myopic questions about what set of consumers 50 did or did not like about a good/service. In addition, this approach allows set of consumers 50 to be frank about their experiences and not guided by the responses of others. Still yet, very few limitations could be used to prequalify consumers so that the broadest cross-section of a company's target consumer base can be selected.
Once the interview information has been received from set of consumers 50, element determination system 34 will parse the same to determine the elements that impact purchase decisions. Such elements include both hard influences (e.g., consumer needs, consumer actions, competitor actions, etc.) and soft influences (e.g., consumer beliefs and emotions. Referring now to
In this illustrative example, the following stages could be determined:
A. Incubation: Consumers have identified a need and are actively seeking options for a purchase, but for various reasons are not ready to buy or are delaying the purchase. Researchers have found that the incubation stage for complex purchases can last for a number of years—a window of opportunity that companies focused on the quick sale could be neglecting. For example, in
B. Trigger: Any number of events—including the breakdown or poor performance of a product, receipt of a new credit line, a windfall from a raise or bonus at work, the birth of a child or even an upcoming social event—triggers transition from the Incubation mode to the next stage—Shopping and Purchase. The consumer is still seeking information, taking measurements and weighing product features and other variables—such as the immediacy of their need or their ability to delay gratification—even as they head out the door. For example, in
C. Shopping and purchase: Consumers shop with an intent to buy, choose and purchase a product. Consumers make the crucial price-to-value tradeoffs during final product selection and shopping, and ultimately purchase, at those companies that made positive influences during incubation. For example, in
D. Post-purchase expectations: Consumers evaluate expectations of after-sales issues such as product performance, and installation, repair or warranty services even before making the final purchase decision. Failure to adequately position a company's ability to deliver after-sales service can cause loss of current as well as future sales. During actual post-purchase, which could again be a several-year process, the consumer assesses their overall satisfaction with the product. Most importantly, these post-purchase assessments become a feedback mechanism into the series of “incubating” purchases that are to follow. For example, in
Referring back to
Incubation Stage:
When did you first start thinking about buying a new product/service?
What actions did you take during the period of time before you decided to purchase the new product/service?
Trigger Stage:
Thinking about your purchase, what best describes why you chose to purchase the new product/service at this time?
Shopping and Purchase Stage:
Which product features were in your decision to select your new product/service?
Which attributes about retailers were in your decision to shop at specific retailers for your new product/service?
Post-Purchase Expectations Stage:
What best describes how you installed your new product/service?
How satisfied were you with the retailers' after-sales service?
Referring to
Referring back to
Next, element mapping system 42 will map the elements that impact product selection to each decision stage. Referring to
Referring back to
Structural equation modeling (SEM) is used to convert the mappings (such as that shown in
Path regressions can be used to test thousands of relationships between elements and decisions and utilize cross-validation testing to find the model that has the “best fit” for explaining why consumers make specific decisions.
Impact scores utilizing a standardized scale based on the SEM's coefficients to prioritize the relative “impact” of an element on the final purchase decision will then be assigned.
Score mapping assigns an “impact” to every element-to-stage and stage-to-decision link in the maps to identify which linkages ultimately impact the final decision.
Referring to
After the scores have been assigned for each element of each decision stage, global mapping system 46 will develop a global map 56 based thereon.
It should be appreciated that the teachings of the present invention could be offered as a business method on a subscription or fee basis. For example, computer system 12 of
The foregoing description of the preferred embodiments of this invention has been presented for purposes of illustration and description. It is not intended to be exhaustive or to limit the invention to the precise form disclosed, and obviously, many modifications and variations are possible. Such modifications and variations that may be apparent to a person skilled in the art are intended to be included within the scope of this invention as defined by the accompanying claims. For example, the configuration of CDP modeling system 30 of