Patent Application
20150178653
The present invention relates to a system for and a method of predicting a delivery date of a gas cylinder for liquefied petroleum (LP) gas installed in a supply facility.
It is known that supply of LP gas is based on imports from gas producing countries and domestic production as a by-product in the course of producing petroleum products. Petroleum refining terminals and import terminals for storing LP gas carried from gas producing countries by tankers are respectively referred to as primary terminals. LP gas is loaded into domestic vessels and/or tank trucks in the primary terminals and is shipped to secondary terminals located on the coast or inland as hub terminals for LP gas transportation. Further, LP gas carried to the secondary terminals is transported to LP gas filling stations in various locations, i.e., delivery branches, and is then injected into gas cylinders (gas canisters) in the delivery branches.
The gas cylinders, filled with LP gas in the respective filling stations, are delivered to customers' places such as residential houses, apartment houses and work places by deliverymen. Empty gas cylinders in the customers' places are replaced with full gas cylinders, and are brought back to the respective filling stations. In each filling station, a fixed delivery area is assigned to each deliveryman as an area of which he/she is in charge. Each deliveryman is given delivery tickets to be delivered to customers' places within his/her responsible delivery area in 2 to 10 days.
The delivery tickets are created by a delivery manager. First, the amount of LP gas remaining in each gas cylinder is predicted based on a past gas usage record of each customer, a meter indication of a gas meter in each customer's place, a delivery record and so forth, and the next delivery due date of each gas cylinder is determined. The number of gas cylinders to be delivered in 2 to 10 days is determined by accumulating the number of gas cylinders of all the customers within the delivery area of which each deliveryman is in charge.
In replacing a gas cylinder based on a delivery ticket, a deliveryman fills in the respective items of the delivery ticket including a replacement date, a meter indication on the date, a cylinder number and a safety inspection. When a daily delivery work is finished, delivery tickets are handed in to the delivery manager. The delivery manager checks if each delivery ticket returned to him/her includes incomplete items, and then, stores each checked delivery ticket as data for calculating the next delivery due date. Under the aforementioned mechanism, a system for enhancing efficiency in delivery of a as cylinder has been proposed (see PTL 1).
As disclosed in PTL 1, the system for enhancing efficiency in delivery of a gas cylinder has conventionally existed, but has had a problem that it has been impossible for the system to predict a delivery date of a gas cylinder such that gas delivery can be stably supplied and further the remaining amount of gas to be brought back can be reduced.
PTL Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. H08-329159(1996)
In view of the aforementioned situation, it is an object of the present invention to provide a delivery prediction system and a delivery prediction method whereby it is possible to predict a delivery date of a gas cylinder such that gas delivery can be stably supplied and further the remaining amount of gas to be brought back can be reduced.
To solve the aforementioned problem, the present invention relates to a delivery prediction system that is configured to predict delivery of each of a plurality of gas cylinders installed in a plurality of supply facilities. The delivery prediction system includes: a management unit that is configured to manage a remaining gas amount in the each of the plurality of gas cylinders in the plurality of supply facilities; a reception unit that is configured to receive a set of meter indication data of each of a plurality of gas meters configured to detect respective gas usages in the plurality of gas cylinders from a communication terminal; an update unit that is configured to calculate the gas usage consumed in the each of the plurality of supply facilities in a period from a previous meter reading date to a current meter reading date on a basis of comparison between a set of meter indication data received in the current meter reading date and a set of meter indication data received in the previous meter reading date and being configured to cause the management unit to update the remaining gas amount in the each of the plurality of gas cylinders corresponding to the plurality of supply facilities on a basis of the gas usage; a prediction unit that is configured to predict a prospective daily gas usage in the each of the plurality of gas cylinders installed in the plurality of supply facilities on a basis of a daily gas usage, which is consumed in the period from the previous meter reading date to the current meter reading date and is obtained based on the calculated gas usage, and a rate of change in a past daily gas usage, which is obtained based on sets of meter indication data of the each of the plurality of supply facilities in a predetermined past period, and is configured to predict a prospective remaining gas amount by reducing the updated remaining gas amount in accordance with the prospective daily gas usage; and a determination unit that is configured to determine a date on which the predicted remaining gas amount reaches a predetermined value as a delivery date of the each of the plurality of gas cylinders in the plurality of supply facilities.
To solve the aforementioned problem, the present invention relates to a delivery prediction method which is configured to cause a computer to predict delivery of each of a plurality of gas cylinders installed in a plurality of supply facilities, and in which the computer includes a management unit configured to manage a remaining gas amount in the each of the plurality of gas cylinders in the plurality of supply facilities. The delivery prediction method includes the steps of receiving a set of meter indication data of each of a plurality of gas meters configured to detect respective gas usages in the plurality of gas cylinders from a communication terminal; calculating the gas usage consumed in the each of the plurality of supply facilities in a period from a previous meter reading date to a current meter reading date on a basis of comparison between a set of meter indication data received in the current meter reading date and a set of meter indication data received in the previous meter reading date and causing the management unit to update the remaining gas amount in the each of the plurality of gas cylinders corresponding to the plurality of supply facilities on a basis of the gas usage; predicting a prospective daily gas usage in the each of the plurality of gas cylinders installed in the plurality of supply facilities on a basis of a daily gas usage, which is consumed in the period from the previous meter reading date to the current meter reading date and is obtained based on the calculated gas usage, and a rate of chance in a past daily gas usage, which is obtained based on sets of meter indication data of the each of the plurality of supply facilities in a predetermined past period, and predicting a prospective remaining gas amount by reducing the updated remaining gas amount in accordance with the prospective daily gas usage; and determining a date on which the predicted remaining gas amount reaches a predetermined value as a delivery date of the each of the plurality of gas cylinders in the plurality of supply facilities.
According to the present invention, it is possible to predict a delivery date of a gas cylinder such that gas delivery can be stably supplied, and further, the remaining amount of gas to be brought back can be reduced.
Explanation will be hereinafter provided for a schematic configuration of a system in the present exemplary embodiment. The system is configured to predict a delivery date of a gas cylinder installed in a supply facility with use of meter indication data including a meter indication of a gas meter.
The client computers 103 are terminals located in a delivery center for managing deliveries from the respective delivery branches in a unified manner, for instance, and are used by users in the delivery center. A user establishes a connection to the delivery server 101 through a client computer 103 and exclusively performs various delivery tasks such as confirmation of a delivery status and an instruction for creating delivery data. It should be noted that the client computers 103 may be located in, for instance, delivery branches or so forth.
The mobile terminals 105 are terminals used by workers (including e.g., deliverymen, safety inspectors, etc.) who read meter indications of gas meters respectively installed in the supply facilities equipped with gas cylinders. The mobile terminals 105 respectively include a CPU, a memory, an input device, a display device and so forth. For example, the mobile terminals are mobile phones, personal digital assistants and/or so forth. The aforementioned workers collect sets of meter indication data, respectively including a meter indication of each gas meter, through the mobile terminals 105 and transmit the collected sets of meter indication data to the delivery server 101. It should be noted that each set of meter indication data is transmitted to the delivery server 101, for instance, in reading a gas meter, in opening/closing a valve, in conducting a safety inspection, in delivering one or more gas cylinders and so forth.
As shown in
The CPU 301 is coupled to the respective component elements through the system bus 302, and is configured to perform a process of transferring control signals and data. Also, the CPU 301 is configured to run various software programs and perform arithmetic/logic processing and so forth in order to implement the entire operation of the delivery server 101.
The Ram 303 has a work area for storing temporarily data and the software programs.
The storage device 307 includes a non-volatile storage medium such as a ROM or a HDD, and has a program storage area for storing the software programs and a data storage area for storing data to be obtained on an as-needed basis, data as processing results, and so forth. For example, a software program is retrieved from the program storage area of the storage device 307 into the work area of the RAM 303, and is run by the CPU 301. Thus, the CPU 301 of the present exemplary embodiment implements functions of respective units 31 to 34 to be described. It should be noted that the software programs may be stored in a computer readable information storage medium such as a DVD-ROM, a CD-ROM or so forth.
As shown in
The reception unit 31 is configured to receive meter indication data of a gas meter for detecting the gas usage in a gas cylinder installed in a supply facility from a given mobile terminal 105. In the present exemplary embodiment, the meter indication data includes a meter indication indicating the remaining gas amount in the gas cylinder, a meter reading date, and so forth. Detailed explanation thereof will be described below.
The update unit 32 is configured to calculate the gas usage consumed in a period from a previous meter reading date to a current meter reading date on the basis of comparison between previous meter indication data and current meter indication data received by the reception unit 31, and is configured to update the remaining gas amount in the gas cylinder managed in the storage device 307 on the basis of the calculated gas usage. In the present exemplary embodiment, the meter indication data includes a meter indication indicating the gas usage in a gas cylinder and a meter reading date. Thus, the update unit 32 is configured to calculate the remaining gas amount in the same gas cylinder by, for instance, calculating the gas usage consumed in the period from the previous meter reading date to the current meter reading date on the basis of {(a meter indication on the current meter reading date)−(a meter indication on the previous meter reading date)}. In other words, the process of updating the remaining gas amount is configured to be performed based on the gas usage to be obtained based on comparison between multiple sets of meter indication data including the aforementioned received meter indication data. Detailed explanation will be provided below for the process of updating the remaining gas amount.
It should be noted that in the present exemplary embodiment, an explanation will be provided for a configuration to calculate a rate of change in the past gas usage. However, due to various reasons such as customer's transfer, a customer could have no gas usage record in the past depending on a situation. In this case, it is only required to preliminarily set information regarding how much gas to be used (e.g., an estimated usage) on the basis of the content of a contract with the customer (usage status, purpose of use, etc.) without calculating the rate of change in the past gas usage.
The prediction unit 33 is configured to predict a prospective daily gas usage in the gas cylinder installed in the supply facility on the basis of the daily gas usage consumed in the period from the previous meter reading date to the current meter reading date, which is obtained based on the gas usage calculated by the update unit 32, and the rate of change in the past daily gas usage obtained based on meter indication data of the supply facility in a predetermined past period. In the present exemplary embodiment, the past period is, for instance, a meter indication period on the same time (from the current meter indication month to the next meter indication month) in the previous year. However, another aspect can be set as the rate of change in the past daily gas usage or the predetermined past period as long as the prediction unit 33 is capable of predicting a rate of change in the prospective gas usage.
Further, the prediction unit 33 of the present exemplary embodiment is configured to predict a prospective remaining gas amount by reducing the remaining gas amount updated by the update unit 32 in accordance with the predicted prospective daily gas usage. Detailed explanation will be provided below for the prediction processing by the prediction unit 33.
The determination unit 34 is configured to determine a date, on which the remaining gas amount predicted by the prediction unit 33 reaches a predetermined amount, as the delivery date of the gas cylinder in the supply facility. Detailed explanation will be provided below for the determination processing.
For example, when predicting the remaining gas amount in the first bank of gas cylinder (or cylinders) in the gas cylinder group intended for entire replacement, the CPU 301 is configured to predict the remaining gas amount in the second bank of gas cylinder (or cylinders) in accordance with the calculated gas usage. In this case, the remaining gas amount is predicted based on a safety rate s. For example, the safety factor s is set in consideration of the capacity of a gas cylinder and previous delivery weight (usage record). For example, when the safety factor s has been preliminarily set to be 20% and the total capacity of the first and second banks of gas cylinders in a previous delivery is 400 kg, the CPU 301 determines that the total capacity of the first and second banks of gas cylinders in the previous delivery, i.e., an available remaining amount, is 320 kg on the basis of calculation of (400 kg×(100−s)/100).
Next, with reference to
As an example,
In
As shown in
When receiving the meter indication data, the delivery server 101 is configured to cause the storage device 307 to store the meter indication data.
As shown in a table d70 of
In S102 of
In this case, the CPU 301 is configured to read out the previous meter indication data and the aforementioned received current meter indication data from the storage device 307 and calculate the gas usage A (m3) consumed in the period from the previous meter reading date to the current meter reading date in the same supply facility on the basis of difference between the meter indications in two sets of meter indication data. Then, the CPU 301 is configured to subtract the gas usage A (m3) from the remaining gas amount in the gas cylinder managed by the storage device 307 and set the post-subtraction value as “the remaining gas amount” in the storage device 307. Accordingly, the amount of gas remaining in the gas cylinder at the current meter reading is set.
It should be noted that in S102, when the remaining gas amount in one gas cylinder as a supply-side gas cylinder becomes “0” due to the result that the CPU 301 (the update unit 32) subtracted the gas usage from the remaining gas amount in the supply-side gas cylinder and simultaneously the replacement flag in the storage device 307 is not set to “1”, the CPU 301 is configured to update the remaining gas amount in another gas cylinder installed in the supply facility as a reserve-side gas cylinder by subtracting the rest of the gas usage from the remaining gas amount in the reserve-side gas cylinder. For example, when the gas capacity of the reserve-side gas cylinder is 50 kg, the CPU 301 is configured to calculate the remaining gas amount in the reserve-side gas cylinder by subtracting the gas usage, which is consumed in the reserve-side gas cylinder after the gas in the supply-side gas cylinder is used up, from the gas capacity (50 kg) of the reserve-side gas cylinder. In the present exemplary embodiment. When the replacement flag is not set to “1”, this means that the first gas cylinder is currently used in the gas cylinder group intended for entire replacement.
In S103 of
In the present exemplary embodiment, the prospective daily gas usage is calculated based on a ratio of the past daily gas usages on the same time in the previous year. Thus, the CPU 301 is configured to obtain the rate of change α in the past daily gas usage from a formula: {(the daily gas usage on the same month as the next month of the current meter reading month in the previous year)/(the daily gas usage on the same month as the current meter reading month in the previous year)}.
For example, when the current meter reading of the gas meter is performed in February, the rate of change α in the past daily gas usage is obtained from a formula: {(the daily gas usage in March in the previous year/(the daily gas usage in February in the previous year)}. In an example d80 of
It should be noted that the rate of change α in the past daily gas usage may be obtained from the ratio of the past daily gas usage in the same time in a period of time earlier than the previous year (e.g., two years ago). Alternatively, the rate of change α in the past daily gas usage may be obtained from an average of the daily gas usages in the respective months of multiple years (e.g., two years from 2010 to 2011). The average of the daily gas usages in the respective months of multiple years is obtained from {(sum of yearly averages of the daily gas usages in the respective months of all intended years)/(the number of intended years)}.
In S103 of
Alternatively in S103, the CPU 301 may be configured to predict the gas usage to be consumed by the customer on and after the meter reading date on the basis of an installation status of gas consuming equipment as a customer-dependent factor and/or a gas usage season as an external factor. For example, a GHP (gas heat pump) air conditioner, a heater and a cooler are examples of the gas consuming equipment.
In installing gas consuming equipment anew, a rate of increase d (e.g., d=1.2) in the gas usage, which can be increased from the date (e.g., May 10, 2012) to start using the gas consuming equipment, has been preliminarily set. The CPU 301 is configured to modify the gas usage N (m3/day) calculated in S102 in accordance with the rate of change α in the gas usage and the rate of increase d and determine that the gas consumption from e.g., May 10, 2012 is a value obtained by α×d×N.
On the other hand, in removing already installed gas consuming equipment, the rate of increase d (e.g., d=1.2) in the gas usage, which has been preliminarily set, will be no longer used from the date (e.g., May 10, 2012) that the gas consuming equipment is removed. The CPU 301 is configured to determine that the gas consumption from e.g., May 10, 2012 is a value obtained by α×N.
In changing already installed gas consuming equipment, the rate of increase d in the gas usage is updated in accordance with the change condition. The CPU 301 is configured to modify the aforementioned as usage N (m3/day) in accordance with the rate of change α in the gas usage and the updated rate of increase d and determine that the gas consumption from the change date of the gas consuming equipment (e.g., May 10, 2012) is a value obtained by α×d×N.
Prediction of the gas usage based on a gas usage season is performed. based on a predetermined reference value r. For example, the reference value r (e.g., r=1.5˜1.1) has been preliminarily set for a cooling season (e.g., June to September) or a heating season (e.g., December to February). The CPU 301 is configured to calculate the gas usage consumed by the customer on and after the meter reading date on the basis of the reference value r set for either the cooling season or the heating season.
It should be noted that the aforementioned rate of increase d or reference value a is stored in the storage device 307 of the delivery server 101 so as to be associated with the customer ID and the meter number.
In S104 of
It should be noted that in determining the delivery date, the CPU 301 is configured to determine the delivery date of the gas cylinder when the replacement flag in the storage device is set to “1”. This is because replacement of the gas cylinder is performed when the replacement flag is set to “1”.
In an example d90 of
In
It should be noted that in
As explained above, the delivery server 101 of the present exemplary embodiment is configured to determine the delivery date of a gas cylinder to be delivered to its relevant supply facility by calculating the daily gas usage to be consumed on and after the meter reading date and predicting the remaining gas amount available on and after the meter reading date. Here, the daily gas usage to be calculated is obtained based on the record of the past gas usages in the same supply facility. Hence, the prediction can be accurately performed. Accordingly, it is possible to predict the delivery date of a gas cylinder such that gas delivery can be stably supplied, and further, the remaining amount of gas to be brought back can be reduced.
It should be noted that calculation of the gas usage and that of the remaining gas amount are not limited to those of the aforementioned example, and are enabled from various perspectives. For example, when respective gas cylinders of multiple customers are concentrated in a single location (concentrated system), the CPU 301 is also capable of preliminarily grouping the multiple customers connected to the single location, predicting the gas usage and the remaining gas amount for all the intended customers connected to the same group on the basis of the sum of the gas usages of the respective customers connected to the same group, and predicting the delivery date of the relevant gas cylinders employing the concentrated system.
Next, explanation will be provided for modifications of the present exemplary embodiment.
With reference to
In this case, in S102 of
Description has not been provided above for change in the past gas usage consumed within the same area as the area that an intended supply facility is located. However, the prospective remaining gas amount may be predicted in accordance with change in the gas usage on an area basis.
In this case, in S103 of
For example, when the meter indication date of meter indication data indicates a date in February, the daily gas usage within the same area in February in the previous year and the daily gas usage within the same area in March in the previous year are used as the gas usages within the same area of a predetermined period ago. In this case, the CPU 301 is configured to calculate a value of {(an average of the daily gas usages within the intended area in March in the previous year)/(an average of the daily gas usages within the intended area in February in the previous year)} on the basis of the multiple sets of meter indication data within the intended area and is configured to set the calculated value as the rate of change β in the past gas usage consumed within the intended area. In this case, (the daily gas usage within the intended area in February in the previous year) is calculated as, for instance, an average of (the daily gas usages in February in the previous year) for all the intended gas cylinders within the intended area, whereas (the daily gas usage within the intended area in March in the previous year) is calculated as, for instance, an average of (the daily gas usages in March in the previous year) for all the intended gas cylinders within the intended area.
It should be noted that as described above, (the daily gas usage in February in the previous year) of each gas cylinder is calculated by, for instance, a formula: {(a meter indication of meter indication data in March in the previous year)−(a meter indication of meter indication in February in the previous year)}/(the number of days from a meter reading date in February in the previous year to a meter reading date in March in the previous year), whereas (the daily gas usage in March in the previous year) for each gas cylinder is calculated by, for instance, a formula: {(a meter indication of meter indication data in April in the previous year)−(the meter indication of the meter indication data in March in the previous year)}/(the number of days from the meter reading date in March in the previous year to a meter reading date in April in the previous year).
In an example d100 of
It should be noted that the rate of change in the gas usage on an area basis is not limited to that in the previous year, and that a period of time earlier than the previous year may be used instead.
Furthermore, in S103 of
It should be noted that, when the two rates of change α and β are equal, a preliminarily-set high-prioritized rate of change is configured to be employed and be multiplied by the gas usage N (m3/day).
| Number | Date | Country | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-130613 | Jun 2012 | JP | national |
| Filing Document | Filing Date | Country | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCT/JP2013/003622 | 6/7/2013 | WO | 00 |
