NSF Award
2409246
Agriculture is a critical social-ecological system producing much of the world’s food, supporting millions of livelihoods, and interacting with local ecosystems. Recent documents by the United Nations, World Bank, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlight both the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate change as well as its ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In 2022, the U.S.’s Inflation Reduction Act dedicated $19.5 billion to support farmers in “climate-smart” practices that sequester carbon into agricultural soils and increase soil water holding capacity and infiltration, thereby contributing to both climate change mitigation and adaptation. As the U.S. and other governments invest in supporting farmers’ ability to respond to climate change, it becomes necessary to assess (1) the regional variation of climate risks for farmers in the U.S.; (2) the quantifiable impacts “climate-smart” practices have on soil composition, farmer livelihoods, and climate resilience at multiple scales, and (3) the equitability of resources and outcomes for “climate-smart” agriculture across the country. This study will provide an integrated analysis across the ecological and social dimensions of climate adaptive agricultural practices to support more effective, responsive, and equitable applications of climate-adaptive agriculture in the U.S., while improving scientific knowledge of the role agriculture plays in climate-change mitigation and adaptation.<br/><br/>Agricultural systems are priority human-environment systems for climate change intervention. Recent international documents, such as the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP-27), the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, and the World Bank’s Climate Change Action Plan 2021-2025.demonstrate a growing recognition that agriculture is a complex human-environment system, which both contributes to and is highly vulnerable to global climate change. Agricultural policies and incentives based on the priorities set forth in these documents, support practices like low tilling, cover cropping, and residue management, which have been deemed "climate smart" due to their ability to sequester carbon into agricultural soils and increase water retention and infiltration. However, there is still minimal knowledge of the quantifiable impacts these practices have on soil composition and climate resilience at multiple scales, and the complexity of factors that influence decisions by farmers to adopt these practices, even when presented with financial incentives. Through the application of mixed methods including Earth-system modeling, soil testing, farmer surveys, interviews, and focus groups, this project will (1) identify regionally specific climate risks for farmers in three agricultural regions of the U.S., (2) quantify, the impacts of climate-adaptive farming practices on soil composition, climate, and crop yield at multiple scales, and (3) assess the role of these climate-adaptive practices in producing overall climate resilience. This study will illuminate the equitability of climate-resilience outcomes and build new capabilities within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to represent climate adaptive processes under global-change scenarios.<br/><br/>This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
