The present invention generally relates to statistics, and more particularly but not exclusively, to a distributed decision making architecture for embedded prognostics in a platform, such as a vehicle.
Vehicles are used in a variety of settings. For example, aircraft and spacecraft are used in aerospace settings, automobiles, buses, and trains are used in surface settings, and marine vehicles are used on or in marine environments. Health management systems are commonly employed in conjunction with vehicles and similar complex systems (i.e., platforms) for monitoring purposes. Typically, the health management systems may monitor one particular aspect of the vehicle or platform. The health management systems, however, are beginning to monitor more than one aspect of the vehicle with increasing frequency.
A common problem in the deployment of health management systems is the challenge of providing prognostic information, or predictive information, for the platform. Health management systems utilize signals on the platform to generate a prediction of remaining functional life of components of the platform. Traditional embedded solutions to this problem implement the prognostic prediction functionality within software of the line replaceable units (LRUs) on the platform. This solution may result in costly updates, since the initial accuracy of the prediction software may be low.
Because embedded prognostic functionality is replicated in each LRU, predictions from a first LRU do not necessarily represent or take into account data obtained from a second LRU. Accordingly, a need exists for a mechanism to generate prognostic information for a platform, such as a vehicle, in a more efficient and accurate manner. Furthermore, other desirable features and characteristics of the present invention will become apparent from the subsequent detailed description of the invention and the appended claims, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and this background of the invention.
In one embodiment, by way of example only, a distributed decision making architecture for embedded prognostics in a platform is provided. An estimation system determines at least one performance characteristic of at least one device in the platform. A supervisory system is in communication with and superior to, the estimation system for calculating a prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) of the at least one device in the platform. The supervisory system is adapted for collecting the at least one performance characteristic from the estimation system to generate a performance estimate, and implementing at least one data-driven equation to match the at least one performance estimate against of at least one known degradation condition to generate the prediction of remaining useful life of the at least one device.
In another embodiment, again by way of example only, a method for calculating a prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) of at least one device embedded in a platform is provided. A plurality of input signal values are collected from the at least one device. At least one performance characteristic is determined based on the plurality of input signal values in at least one estimator system. At least one performance estimate is generated from the at least one performance characteristic. The at least one performance estimate is forwarded to a supervisory system. At least one data-driven equation is implemented in the supervisory system to match the at least one performance estimate against at least one known degradation condition to generate the prediction of remaining useful life of the at least one device.
In still another embodiment, again by way of example only, a computer program product for calculating a prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) of at least one device embedded in a platform is provided. The computer program product comprises a computer-readable storage medium having computer-readable program code portions stored therein. The computer-readable program code portions include a first executable portion for collecting a plurality of input signal values from the at least one device, a second executable portion for determining at least one performance characteristic based on the plurality of input signal values in at least one estimator system, a third executable portion for forwarding the at least one performance characteristic to a supervisory system, a fourth executable portion for generating at least one performance estimate from the at least one performance characteristic, a fifth executable portion for forwarding the at least one performance estimate to a supervisory system, and a sixth executable portion for implementing at least one data-driven equation in the supervisory system to match the at least one performance estimate against at least one known degradation condition to generate the prediction of remaining useful life of the at least one device.
The present invention will hereinafter be described in conjunction with the following drawing figures, wherein like numerals denote like elements, and
The following detailed description of the invention is merely exemplary in nature and is not intended to limit the invention or the application and uses of the invention. Furthermore, there is no intention to be bound by any theory presented in the preceding background of the invention or the following detailed description of the invention.
Prognostic systems, or prognostic generation functionality, may be embedded in platforms. One goal of such systems is to accurately estimate the remaining life of a device, component or subsystem of the platform. The remaining life may refer to an amount of time that the device can continue to perform its specified function and satisfy its specified performance characteristics.
Existing prognostic solutions tend to be specialized for a single type of device, and require a large amount of tuning of parameters to achieve acceptable levels of accuracy. In addition, the solutions tend to require a large amount of data of the platform to be transferred to a centralized location where sufficient processing bandwidth is available. There is a need for a general purpose approach to prognostics that does not require a large amount of data transfer.
The present description and following claimed subject matter present exemplary system, method, and computer program product embodiments of a mechanism to provide prognostic functionality for one or more devices in a platform, such as a vehicle. The mechanism makes use of a distributed architecture as will be further described. The distributed architecture includes one or more estimation systems closely coupled to the device for receiving data. In contrast to conventional systems, however, information from the estimation systems is provided to a supervisory system. The supervisory system is in communication with, and superior to, each estimation system. The supervisory system takes performance estimate information from the estimation system(s) and implements data-driven equations to match the performance estimate information against known degradation signatures to generate a prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) of one or more devices of the platform. Since the supervisory system is data driven, it is less costly to update; indeed, a single update is capable of providing improvement in prediction functionality for each device in the platform.
The exemplary embodiments described below separate the high-bandwidth, relatively mature portion of the prognostics problem (i.e., estimation), from the low-bandwidth, immature portion of the problem (i.e., interpretation). Estimation is performed on, or close to, the device itself. In this way, high-frequency data is already available. Additionally, in some cases, portions of the estimation data is already performed as part of applicable control laws. Interpretation is performed at a central location where updated degradation signatures and interpretation algorithms may be loaded at a lower cost than updating all devices on the platform. Tools may be provided for use in lab environments to produce degradation signatures for test conditions and for field feedback data.
To more effectively illustrate differences between prediction functionality,
In contrast to the typical prediction functionality employed in
In one embodiment, each estimator 18, 20, and 22 contains estimation algorithms to measure the key performance characteristics of each LRU 12, 14, and 16. Such data may be representative of input/output (I/O) ratios and/or transfer functions, signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios, non-linearity, backlash, and hysteresis properties, and disconnect/software abort rates. An estimation module 30 collects such data from each of the LRUs 12, 14, and 16, and generates values representative of such performance characteristics. The performance characteristics are fed to an evaluator module 34 for generating performance estimate(s) representative of the performance characteristics.
Once the performance estimates are generated, they are forwarded to supervisory module 36 for classification. Supervisory module 36 includes a centralized classification function 38 for receiving the performance estimates and matching the estimates against known degradation signatures for each device 24, 26, and 28. Such matching functionality is depicted as a number of tables (one for each mode of operation), where the degradation conditions 40 are denoted along the Y-axis, and the performance characteristics 42 for the device are denoted along the X-axis. A centralized RUL algorithm/classifier functions as a data-driven equation, bringing to bear data from a variety of sources to generate a number of degradation signatures 44. Degradation signatures 44 represent a mapping of the performance characteristic(s) with at least one known degradation condition. The degradation signatures 44 indicate a remaining useful life (RUL) (r) 46 for the device as expected for a particular operating mode. Interpolation between degradation signatures 44 may be used to improve overall accuracy of the estimate.
Method 50 begins (step 52) with the collection of input signal value(s) from one or more platform devices (step 54). Based on the input signal values, one or more performance characteristics are determined in one or more estimator systems (step 56). Based on the performance characteristic(s), one or more performance estimates are generated (step 58). The performance estimates are forwarded to a supervisory system from the estimation system (step 60). One or more data-driven equations are implemented in the supervisory system to match the performance estimate(s) against one or more known degradation signatures to generate a prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) (step 62). The RUL is then published to a prognostic monitor (step 64). The method 50 then ends (step 66).
Some of the functional units described in this specification have been labeled as “modules” in order to more particularly emphasize their implementation independence. For example, functionality labeled as a module may be implemented wholly, or partially, as a hardware circuit comprising custom VLSI circuits or gate arrays, off-the-shelf semiconductors such as logic chips, transistors, or other discrete components. A module may also be implemented in programmable hardware devices such as field programmable gate arrays, programmable array logic, programmable logic devices, or the like.
Modules may also be implemented in software for execution by various types of processors. An identified module of executable code may, for instance, comprise one or more physical or logical modules of computer instructions that may, for instance, be organized as an object, procedure, or function. Nevertheless, the executables of an identified module need not be physically located together, but may comprise disparate instructions stored in different locations that, when joined logically together, comprise the module and achieve the stated purpose for the module.
Indeed, a module of executable code may be a single instruction, or many instructions, and may even be distributed over several different code segments, among different programs, and across several memory devices. Similarly, operational data may be embodied in any suitable form and organized within any suitable type of data structure. The operational data may be collected as a single data set, or may be distributed over different locations including over different storage devices, and may exist, at least partially, merely as electronic signals on a system or network.
Reference throughout this specification to “one embodiment,” “an embodiment,” or similar language means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment is included in at least one embodiment of the present invention. Thus, appearances of the phrases “in one embodiment,” “in an embodiment,” and similar language throughout this specification may, but do not necessarily, all refer to the same embodiment.
Furthermore, the described features, structures, or characteristics of the invention may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments. In the following description, numerous specific details are provided, such as examples of programming, software modules, user selections, network transactions, database queries, database structures, hardware modules, hardware circuits, hardware chips, etc., to provide a thorough understanding of embodiments of the invention. One skilled in the relevant art will recognize, however, that the invention may be practiced without one or more of the specific details, or with other methods, components, materials, and so forth. In other instances, well-known structures, materials, or operations are not shown or described in detail to avoid obscuring aspects of the invention.
While one or more embodiments of the present invention have been illustrated in detail, the skilled artisan will appreciate that modifications and adaptations to those embodiments may be made without departing from the scope of the present invention as set forth in the following claims.
This invention was made with Government support under Honeywell Project Number AZ19888 (PS-MRS) entitled “Future Combat Systems-Platform Soldier Mission Readiness System,” and awarded by the U.S. Department of Defense under Prime Contract Number W56HZV-05-C-0724, and Subcontract Number 3EC1893 and 5EC8407. The Government has certain rights in this invention.