NSF Award
1129998
This project examines the effectives of the 100-year floodplain in predicting property damages from floods and offers improved criteria for assessing risk of inundation in low-lying coastal areas. As flood losses continue to increase in the United States, recent evidence suggests that the 100-year floodplain (the primary marker of flood risk and mitigation) is neither accurate nor sufficient in guiding communities and household decisions to mitigate the adverse impacts of floods. The inability of the floodplain designation to effectively capture the likelihood of property loss has left potentially millions of property owners unaware of the flood risk and has made it more difficult for local decision makers to ensure community development occurs in a resilient manner. First, the record of insured property damage at the household level from 2000-2009 will be spatially examined for a sample of coastal counties along the Gulf of Mexico. Second, statistical models to predict insured property damage from floods will be analyzed using proximity and built environment measures not traditionally used to determine floodplain boundaries. Finally, a survey will be conducted of households claiming losses both in and out of the floodplain to understand the perceptions of flood risks and motivations to mitigate their potential adverse impacts. <br/><br/>This research will provide important information to decision makers on how to implement more precise strategies to reduce the costs of floods at the local level. An improved understanding of flood risk will enable localities to better protect themselves against loss of property and lives in coastal areas. Research findings will also help individuals living outside the floodplain, but still at high risk for flood damages reduce the chances they will experience devastating losses in the future. To this end, a major part of the research project will be to deliver findings that can be easily accessed and understood by both public officials and local residents. First, data on flood loss and areas of risk will be integrated with an existing web-based GIS system that currently serves as a technical assistance and outreach tool. Second, local neighborhoods that have become hotspots of flood loss will be worked with to increase awareness of the problem and provide options for reducing future loss. Third, results from the study will be brought into the classroom as part of graduate and undergraduate studies across two college campuses. These approaches will ensure the research findings assist local governments and individual households on how to better reduce the negative impacts of coastal flooding in the US.
