GAS FLOW RATE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION METHOD FOR WELLHEAD CHOKE OF GAS WELL BASED ON GAUSSIAN PROCESS REGRESSION

Abstract

The present invention discloses a gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression, comprising the following steps of Step 1) acquiring basic data of the wellhead choke on site, Step 2) selecting a kernel function, Step 3) calculating a covariance matrix, Step 4) testing the Gaussian process regression model with the test data sample to calculate a prediction deviation, Step 5) selecting different kernel functions, repeating Steps 2-4, comparing prediction deviations of the different kernel functions, and Step 6) analyzing and predicting the gas flow rate of the wellhead choke of the gas well to be tested. According to the method, the data of the wellhead choke of the gas well can be processed effectively, and the gas flow rate can be predicted accurately under the condition that there is gas-liquid flow rate in the wellhead choke.

Description

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

The application claims priority to Chinese patent application No. 202110274038.8, filed on Mar. 15, 2021, the entire contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.

TECHNICAL FIELD

The present invention pertains to the technical field of gas reservoir development, in particular to a gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression.

BACKGROUND

With the increasing energy demand in China, shale gas, as an effective supplement to unconventional oil and gas resources, has been spotlighted and considered as a crucial element to guarantee the energy supply in China. In the shale gas production system, by reasonably changing the size of the wellhead choke of shale gas well to limit the gas flow through it, the wellhead choke plays an important role in avoidance of over-rapid production of gas wells, prevention against gas and water coning, sand flow rate control, potential pipe damage minimization. Therefore, the accurate prediction of choke gas flow rate can not only effectively safeguard gas well production, but also improve production efficiency.

During the production of shale gas wells, there is usually gas-liquid two-phase flow in the wellhead choke. If there is gas-liquid two-phase flow, the performance characteristics of the choke are complex, making it difficult to accurately predict the choke flow rate and select a reasonable wellhead choke size. Current methods for predicting choke flow rate are mainly empirical methods, such as Gilbert-type correlation (GC), artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), and theoretical methods based on mass, momentum and energy balance equations. However, it is obvious that the theoretical model is complicated and inconvenient for field application. The empirical approach is to analyze field data, identify key factors affecting choke flow rate, then establish a model, and predict the choke flow rate. There is low accuracy in the results of choke flow rate prediction with traditional GC method, so that previous methods with higher prediction accuracy such as ANN and SVM have been proposed. At present, scholars are still continuing to explore new methods for better prediction effect.

SUMMARY

In view of the above problems, the present invention aims to provide a gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression, which is featured by easier implementation and higher accuracy, and can make up for the shortcomings of choke flow rate prediction methods in prior art.

The technical solution of the present invention is described as follows:

A gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression, comprising the following steps:

Step 1: Acquire basic data of the wellhead choke on site and dividing them into training data samples and test data samples;

Preferably, the basic data of the wellhead choke on site includes gas flow rate at different moments, produced liquid-gas ratio, choke diameter, wellhead temperature, and wellhead oil pressure. The wellhead temperature can be obtained with a thermometer, and the wellhead oil pressure can be obtained with a pressure gauge.

Preferably, the gas flow rate refers to the volume flow rate of the gas flowing through the wellhead choke under standard conditions; the produced liquid-gas ratio refers to the ratio of the liquid flow rate to the volume flow rate of the gas flowing through the wellhead choke under standard conditions.

Preferably, the gas flow rate, produced liquid-gas ratio, choke diameter, wellhead temperature and wellhead oil pressure at each moment are divided into one group; the number of groups of the training data samples is greater than that of the test data samples.

Preferably, the ratio of the number of sample groups of training data to the number of sample groups of test data is 6-9:4-1.

Step 2: Select a kernel function and assume an iterative initial value of an undetermined parameter of the kernel function;

Preferably, the kernel function refers to any one of exponential kernel function, square exponential kernel function, quadratic rational kernel function, and Matérn kernel function;

The exponential kernel function is:

$\begin{array}{cc}{k}_{\mathrm{Ex}}\left(x,x^{\prime }\right)={\sigma }^2·\exp \left(-\frac{x-x}{2l^2}\right)& \left(1\right)\end{array}$

The square exponential kernel function is:

$\begin{array}{cc}{k}_{\mathrm{SE}}\left(x,x^{\prime }\right)={\sigma }^2·\exp \left(-\frac{{x-x}^2}{2l^2}\right)& \left(2\right)\end{array}$

The quadratic rational kernel function is:

$\begin{array}{cc}{k}_{\mathrm{RQ}}\left(x,x^{\prime }\right)=1-\frac{{x-x}^2}{{x-x}^2-\text{?}}\text{?}\text{indicates text missing or illegible when filed}& \left(3\right)\end{array}$

The Matérn kernel function is:

$\begin{array}{cc}\text{?}\left(x,x^{\prime }\right)=\frac{2^{i-1}}{\text{?}\left(v\right)}{\left(\frac{\sqrt{2v}x-x}{l}\right)}^v{K}_v\left(\frac{\sqrt{2v}x-x}{l}\right)\text{?}\text{indicates text missing or illegible when filed}& \left(4\right)\end{array}$

Where, σ denotes the vertical proportional parameter, dimensionless; exp(A) denotes the natural constant e to the power of A, with A denoting a constant or function; x and x′ denote two groups of data; l is the length proportional parameter, dimensionless; c denotes the intercept constant, dimensionless; ν denotes the smoothing factor, dimensionless; I′ denotes the gamma function; and Kν denotes the Bessel function.

It should be noted that the above four kernel functions are only commonly used, and other kernel functions in the prior art can also be used to establish Gaussian process regression model in the present invention.

Step 3: Calculate a covariance matrix and complete Gaussian process regression training with the training data sample based on a maximum likelihood estimation method to obtain the parameters of the kernel function and a Gaussian process regression model after the training is completed;

Preferably, Step 3 specifically includes the following sub-steps:

Step 301: Assume there is an implicit function ƒ(x) satisfying the functional relationship between the data x in the training data sample and the corresponding theoretical predicted gas volume y:

y=ƒ(x)  (5)

Step 302: Calculate an initial covariance matrix with the training data sample based on the covariance matrix formula, the kernel function selected in Step 2 and the iterative initial value of the kernel function, where the covariance matrix formula is:

$\begin{array}{cc}K=\left[\begin{array}{cccc}k\left(x_1,x_2\right)& k\left(x_1,x_2\right)& \dots & k\left(x_1,x_n\right)\\ k\left(x_2,x_2\right)& k\left(x_2,x_2\right)& \dots & k\left(x_2,x_n\right)\\ ⋮& ⋮& \ddots & ⋮\\ k\left(x_n,x_2\right)& k\left(x_n,x_2\right)& \dots & k\left(x_n,x_n\right)\end{array}\right]& \left(6\right)\end{array}$

Where, K denotes the covariance matrix calculated based on the kernel function; k denotes the kernel function; x_i(i=1,2 . . . . . . ,n) denotes the i^th group of data in the training data sample and n denotes the number of data groups in the training data sample;

Step 303: Perform a Gaussian process prior on the implicit function ƒ(x), and construct a Gaussian distribution relationship of the implicit function ƒ(x) according to the zero mean and the covariance matrix:

ƒ(x)=GP(O,K)  (7)

Where, GP(φ, θ) denotes the Gaussian distribution, where P and 0 denote the mean and variance of the distribution, respectively;

Step 304: Calculate and obtain the theoretically predicted value of the gas 20 flow rate according to the Gaussian distribution relationship, iteratively optimize the parameters of the kernel function based on the maximum likelihood estimation method to obtain the kernel function parameters satisfying the maximum likelihood estimation, and calculate the covariance matrix under this optimized parameter;

Step 305: Obtain the optimized Gaussian distribution relationship according to the optimized covariance matrix, complete the training process of the Gaussian process regression model, and obtain the Gaussian process regression model after the training is completed.

Step 4: Test the Gaussian process regression model with the test data sample to calculate a prediction deviation;

Preferably, Step 4 specifically includes the following sub-steps:

Step 401: Establish a joint Gaussian prior distribution including the training data sample and the test data sample based on the Gaussian process regression model after the training is completed:

$\begin{array}{cc}\lfloor \begin{array}{c}y\\ y^{\prime }\end{array}\rfloor :\mathrm{GP}\left(0,\left[\begin{array}{cc}K& {\left(K^{*}\right)}^T\\ K^{*}& K^{**}\end{array}\right]\right)& \left(8\right)\end{array}$

Where, y* denotes the theoretically predicted gas flow rate corresponding to the test data sample, in 10⁴ m³/d; K* and K** denote the covariance matrix; T denotes the matrix transpose;

The covariance matrices K* and K** are respectively calculated by the following formulas:

$\begin{array}{cc}{K}^{*}=\left[\begin{array}{cccc}k\left(x_1^{*},x_1\right)& k\left(x_1^{*},x_2\right)& \dots & k\left(x_1^{*},x_n\right)\\ k\left(x_2^{*},x_1\right)& k\left(x_2^{*},x_2\right)& \dots & k\left(x_2^{*},x_n\right)\\ ⋮& ⋮& \ddots & ⋮\\ k\left(x_m^{*},x_1\right)& k\left(x_m^{*},x_2\right)& \dots & k\left(x_m^{*},x_n\right)\end{array}\right]& \left(9\right)\end{array}$ $\begin{array}{cc}{K}^{**}=\left[\begin{array}{cccc}k\left(x_1^{*},x_1^{*}\right)& k\left(x_1^{*},x_2^{*}\right)& \dots & k\left(x_1^{*},x_m^{*}\right)\\ k\left(x_2^{*},x_1^{*}\right)& k\left(x_2^{*},x_2^{*}\right)& \dots & k\left(x_2^{*},x_m^{*}\right)\\ ⋮& ⋮& \ddots & ⋮\\ k\left(x_m^{*},x_1^{*}\right)& k\left(x_m^{*},x_2^{*}\right)& \dots & k\left(x_m^{*},x_m^{*}\right)\end{array}\right]& \left(10\right)\end{array}$

Where, x_j*(j=1,2, . . . ,m) denotes the j^th group data in the test data sample; m denotes the number of data groups in the test data sample; if the kernel function marked with superscript symbol *, the data is corresponding to the test data sample; if without the superscript symbol *, the data is corresponding to the training data sample;

Step 402: Work out the posterior probability y* according to Bayesian regression method:

y′|X,y,K′:GP(K′K⁻¹y,K″−k′K⁻¹(K′)^T)  (11)

Where, K⁻¹ denotes the inversion of the covariance matrix K;

Step 403: Take the distribution mean of the posterior probability as the theoretically predicted gas flow rate corresponding to the test data sample, compare the theoretically predicted gas flow rate with the actual gas flow rate of the test data sample, and calculate a prediction deviation.

Preferably, the prediction deviation is any one of mean square deviation, root mean square deviation, mean absolute deviation, and absolute value of mean relative deviation;

The mean square deviation is calculated by the following formula:

$\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{MSE}=\frac{1}{N}{\sum }_{i=1}^N{\left(y_{i,\mathrm{actual}}-y_{i,\mathrm{predicted}}\right)}^2& \left(12\right)\end{array}$

The root mean square deviation is calculated by the following formula:

$\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{RMSE}=\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}{\sum }_{i=1}^N{\left(y_{i,\mathrm{actual}}-y_{i,\mathrm{predicted}}\right)}^2}& \left(13\right)\end{array}$

The mean absolute deviation is calculated by the following formula:

$\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{MAE}=\frac{1}{N}{\sum }_{i=1}^N❘y_{i,\mathrm{actual}}-y_{i,\mathrm{predicted}}❘& \left(14\right)\end{array}$

The absolute value of the mean relative deviation is calculated by the following formula:

$\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{MARE}=\frac{1}{N}{\sum }_{i=1}^N\frac{❘y_{i,\mathrm{actual}}-y_{i,\mathrm{predicted}}❘}{y_{i,\mathrm{predicated}}}& \left(15\right)\end{array}$

Where, N denotes the number of test data points, dimensionless; y_i,predicted denotes the theoretically predicted gas flow rate corresponding to the i^th group of test data sample, in 10⁴ m³/d; y_i,actual denotes the actual gas flow rate corresponding to the i^th group of test data sample, in 104 m³/d.

It should be noted that, in addition to the above four calculation methods for prediction deviation calculation, other calculation methods in the prior art can also be used to calculate the prediction deviation.

Step 5: Select different kernel functions, repeat Steps 2-4, compare prediction deviations of the different kernel functions, and preferably select the Gaussian process regression model with the minimum deviation;

Step 6: Analyze and predict the gas flow rate of the wellhead choke of the gas well to be tested according to the Gaussian process regression model with the minimum deviation.

The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

The present invention can achieve a higher accuracy in predicting the gas flow rate under the condition of gas-liquid two-phase flow in the wellhead choke than existing methods on the basis of ensuring easy field implementation, with broad application prospects in the analysis and prediction of gas well production and the study on gas-liquid two-phase flow of choke.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression;

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the relationship between the theoretically predicted gas flow rate of the Gaussian process regression model (GPR-SE) established with the square exponential kernel function calculated in Embodiment 1 and the actual gas flow rate;

FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the relationship between the theoretically predicted gas flow rate of the Gaussian process regression model (GPR-Ex) established with the exponential kernel function calculated in Embodiment 1 and the actual gas flow rate;

FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of the relationship between the theoretically predicted gas flow rate of the Gaussian process regression model (GPR-Ma) established with the Matérn kernel function calculated in Embodiment 1 and the actual gas flow rate;

FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of the relationship between the theoretically predicted gas flow rate of the Gaussian process regression model (GPR-RQ) established with the quadratic rational kernel function calculated in Embodiment 1 and the actual gas flow rate.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

The present invention is further described with reference to the drawings and embodiments. It should be noted that the embodiments in this application and the technical features in the embodiments can be combined with each other without conflict. It is to be noted that, unless otherwise specified, all technical and scientific terms herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by those of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs. “Include” or “comprise” and other similar words used in the present disclosure mean that the components or objects before the word cover the components or objects listed after the word and its equivalents, but do not exclude other components or objects.

Embodiment 1

As shown in FIG. 1, a gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression, comprising the following steps:

Step 1: Acquire the basic data of the wellhead choke on site, obtain gas flow rate, produced liquid-gas ratio, choke diameter, wellhead temperature, and wellhead oil pressure at different moments, divide the gas flow rate, produced liquid-gas ratio, choke diameter, wellhead temperature and wellhead oil pressure at each moment are divided into one group, and then divide the total groups of data samples by training data sample and test data sample in a ratio of 9:1, with the results shown in Table 1:

TABLE 1
Basic Data of Wellhead Choke on Site
Training data sample	Test data sample
					Actual						Actual
		Wellhead			gas flow			Wellhead			gas flow
	Choke	oil	Wellhead	Liquid-	rate at		Choke	oil	Wellhead	Liquid-	rate at
	size	pressure	temperature	gas	wellhead		size	pressure	temperature	gas	wellhead
S/N	mm	MPa	K	ratio	104 m3/d	S/N	mm	MPa	K	ratio	104 m3/d
1	5.000	28.050	304.400	0.070	0.450	1	6.000	27.500	326.250	0.013	2.230
2	5.000	28.020	306.550	0.066	0.470	2	6.000	27.000	328.500	0.012	2.440
3	5.000	27.980	306.300	0.064	0.470	3	6.000	26.950	317.400	0.010	2.980
4	5.000	27.950	306.850	0.064	0.470	4	6.000	26.920	317.200	0.010	2.940
5	5.000	27.920	305.050	0.067	0.470	5	6.000	26.900	324.450	0.008	3.480
6	5.000	27.850	305.000	0.015	2.100	6	7.000	27.300	326.200	0.004	6.560
7	6.000	27.850	311.550	0.013	2.220	7	7.000	26.820	319.500	0.006	4.760
8	6.000	28.150	310.850	0.014	2.130	8	8.000	27.950	330.650	0.003	10.240
9	6.000	27.480	322.300	0.013	2.200	9	8.000	26.820	330.900	0.003	12.000
10	6.000	27.420	324.500	0.012	2.270	10	8.000	26.880	328.600	0.002	13.600
11	6.000	27.320	328.650	0.012	2.200	11	8.000	25.920	327.650	0.002	13.370
12	6.000	27.220	328.350	0.012	2.200	12	8.000	26.780	327.700	0.003	9.970
13	6.000	27.180	328.250	0.012	2.170	13	8.000	26.600	326.650	0.003	10.720
14	6.000	27.120	328.600	0.012	2.200	14	9.000	25.750	327.050	0.002	13.310
15	6.000	27.080	328.600	0.012	2.250	15	9.000	25.250	326.550	0.002	14.740
16	6.000	27.050	328.300	0.011	2.300	16	9.000	24.880	325.500	0.002	13.330
17	6.000	27.020	328.550	0.011	2.340	17	9.000	24.550	324.550	0.002	13.850
18	6.000	27.020	328.450	0.012	2.390	18	9.000	24.280	324.000	0.001	14.600
19	6.000	26.980	328.300	0.011	2.520	19	9.000	23.950	322.450	0.002	13.830
20	6.000	26.980	328.100	0.011	2.500	20	9.000	23.750	321.600	0.002	14.150
21	6.000	26.980	317.550	0.011	2.620	21	9.000	23.570	323.100	0.002	14.610
22	6.000	27.020	317.300	0.011	2.630	22	9.000	23.770	322.300	0.002	14.370
23	6.000	26.900	316.750	0.010	2.950	23	9.000	23.520	322.100	0.001	14.890
24	6.000	26.980	317.200	0.011	2.770	24	9.000	24.400	315.900	0.001	14.610
25	6.000	26.950	317.450	0.011	2.750	25	9.000	24.280	320.850	0.002	14.610
. . .	. . .

Note: As there are many basic data of the wellhead choke on site, only some data are listed in Table 1, where “ . . . ” indicates that there are unlisted data.

Step 2: Select the square exponential kernel function to establish Gaussian process regression models, and assume that the iterative initial values of the undetermined parameters of the square exponential kernel function, as shown in Table 2:

TABLE 2
Iterative Initial Value of Squared Exponential Kernel Function
Kernel	Vertical proportional	Length proportional
function	parameter (σ)	parameter (l)
SE	2.217	0.163

Step 3: Calculate a covariance matrix and complete Gaussian process regression training with the training data sample based on a maximum likelihood estimation method to obtain the parameters of the kernel function and a Gaussian process regression model after the training is completed; this step includes the following sub-steps:

(1) Work out the initial covariance matrix by calculation with training data samples according to the covariance matrix formula shown in Formula (6), the kernel function selected in Step 2, and the iterative initial value of the kernel function;(2) Perform a Gaussian process prior on the implicit function ƒ(x), and construct a Gaussian distribution relationship of the implicit function ƒ(x) shown in Formula (7) according to the zero mean and the covariance matrix;(3) Work out the theoretically predicted value of flow rate according to the Gaussian distribution relationship, with the results shown in Table 3:

TABLE 3
Theoretically Predicted Gas Flow Rates of Training Data
Samples Obtained by Square Exponential Kernel Function
    Predicted gas flow rate of
S/N training sample 104 m3/d
1   0.598
2   0.538
3   0.402
4   0.667
5   0.543
6   2.215
7   2.234
8   2.227
9   2.306
10  2.252
11  2.247
12  2.226
13  2.255
14  2.237
15  2.227
16  2.407
17  2.288
18  2.273
19  2.392
20  2.569
21  2.698
22  2.713
23  2.999
24  2.749
25  2.693
. . .

(4) Iteratively optimize the parameters of the square exponential kernel function based on the maximum likelihood estimation method to obtain the kernel function parameters that satisfy the maximum likelihood estimation, with the results shown in Table 4:

TABLE 4
Iterative Final Value of Square Exponential Kernel Function
Kernel	Vertical proportional	Length proportional
function	parameter (σ)	parameter (l)
SE	7.502	0.341

(5) Calculate the optimized covariance matrix, and obtain optimized Gaussian distribution relationship based on the optimized covariance matrix, and complete Gaussian process regression training to obtain a Gaussian process regression model after the training is completed;

Step 4: Test the Gaussian process regression model with the test data sample to calculate a prediction deviation, specifically including the following sub-steps:

(1) Establish a joint Gaussian prior distribution including the training data sample and the test data sample based on the Gaussian process regression model after the training is completed;(2) Work out the posterior probability y* according to Bayesian regression method;(3) Take the distribution mean of the posterior probability as the theoretically predicted gas flow rate corresponding to the test data sample, and the calculation results are shown in Table 5:

TABLE 5
Theoretically Predicted Gas Flow Rates of Test Data Samples
Obtained by Square Exponential Kernel Function
    Predicted gas flow rate of
S/N test sample 104 m3/d
1   2.579
2   2.259
3   2.941
4   2.838
5   3.645
6   6.384
7   5.765
8   9.844
9   12.325
10  14.389
11  13.977
12  10.136
13  11.672
14  12.704
15  14.518
16  13.668
17  13.777
18  14.297
19  14.094
20  14.426
21  14.292
22  14.291
23  14.841
24  15.038
25  14.492
. . .

(4) Compare the theoretically predicted gas flow rate with the actual flow rate of the test data sample, and calculate the prediction deviation, with the results shown in Table 6:

TABLE 6
Prediction Deviation of GPR-SE Model
Method	MSE	RMSE	MAE	MARE
GPR-SE	1.073	1.036	0.609	0.211

Step 5: Select the exponential kernel function, Matérn kernel function and quadratic rational kernel function to establish Gaussian process regression models respectively, and repeat Steps 2-4 to obtain the prediction deviations of different kernel functions, with the results shown in Table 7:

TABLE 7
Prediction Deviations of Gaussian Process Regression
Models Established with Different Kernel Functions
	Method	MSE	RMSE	MAE	MARE
	GPR-Ex	0.532	0.730	0.442	0.134
	GPR-Ma	0.796	0.892	0.557	0.160
	GPR-RQ	0.563	0.750	0.467	0.139

Comparing the prediction deviations of the four different kernel functions in Table 6 and Table 7, and the GPR-Ex model with the smallest error in all models is selected as the final Gaussian process regression model;

Step 6: Analyze and predict the gas flow of the wellhead choke of the gas well to be tested according to the GPR-Ex with the minimum deviation.

Take some known gas wells as the gas wells to be tested, predict the gas flow rate of the wellhead choke with the Gaussian process regression model established by each kernel function, and draw a diagram for the relationship between the theoretically predicted gas flow rate and the actual gas flow rate, as shown in FIG. 2-5. It can be seen from FIG. 2-5 that there is slight deviation between the theoretically predicted gas flow rate of the present invention and the actual gas flow rate, and the theoretically predicted gas flow rate obtained by the GPR-Ex model is the smallest in deviation and the highest in accuracy.

In addition, the gas flow analysis and prediction method of the present invention was compared with the prior art, with the results shown in Table 8:

TABLE 8
Prediction Deviations of Different Methods
	Method	MSE	RMSE	MAE	MARE
	GC	3.157	1.777	1.234	0.110
	ANN-BP	1.997	1.413	0.973	0.221
	SVM-Gaussian	1.143	1.069	0.691	0.167

Compared with Tables 6-8, it can be found that the deviation of the Gaussian process regression model of the present invention is smaller than that of the commonly used model, resulting in higher accuracy.

The above are not intended to limit the present invention in any form. Although the present invention has been disclosed as above with embodiments, it is not intended to limit the present invention. Those skilled in the art, within the scope of the technical solution of the present invention, can use the disclosed technical content to make a few changes or modify the equivalent embodiment with equivalent changes. Within the scope of the technical solution of the present invention, any simple modification, equivalent change and modification made to the above embodiments according to the technical essence of the present invention are still regarded as a part of the technical solution of the present invention.

Claims

1. A gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression, comprising the following steps: Step 1: Acquire basic data of the wellhead choke on site and dividing them into training data samples and test data samples; the basic data of the wellhead choke on site includes gas flow rate at different moments, produced liquid-gas ratio, choke diameter, wellhead temperature, and wellhead oil pressure; the gas flow rate, produced liquid-gas ratio, choke diameter, wellhead temperature and wellhead oil pressure at each moment are divided into one group; the number of groups of the training data samples is greater than that of the test data samples;Step 2: Select a kernel function and assume an iterative initial value of an undetermined parameter of the kernel function;Step 3: Calculate a covariance matrix and complete Gaussian process regression training with the training data sample based on a maximum likelihood estimation method to obtain the parameters of the kernel function and a Gaussian process regression model after the training is completed;Step 4: Test the Gaussian process regression model with the test data sample to calculate a prediction deviation;Step 5: Select different kernel functions, repeat Steps 2-4, compare prediction deviations of the different kernel functions, and preferably select the Gaussian process regression model with the minimum deviation;Step 6: Analyze and predict the gas flow rate of the wellhead choke of the gas well to be tested according to the Gaussian process regression model with the minimum deviation.

2. The gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression according to claim 1, wherein the gas flow rate refers to the volume flow rate of the gas flowing through the wellhead choke under standard conditions; the produced liquid-gas ratio refers to the ratio of the liquid flow rate to the volume flow rate of the gas flowing through the wellhead choke under standard conditions.

3. The gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression according to claim 1, wherein the ratio of the number of sample groups of training data to the number of sample groups of test data is 6-9:4-1.

4. The gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression according to claim 1, wherein the kernel function refers to any one of exponential kernel function, square exponential kernel function, quadratic rational kernel function, and Matérn kernel function; The exponential kernel function is:

5. The gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression according to claim 1, wherein Step 3 specifically includes the following sub-steps: Step 301: Assume there is an implicit function ƒ(x) satisfying the functional relationship between the data x in the training data sample and the corresponding theoretical predicted gas volume y: y=ƒ(x)

6. The gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression according to claim 5, wherein Step 4 includes the following sub-steps: Step 401: Establish a joint Gaussian prior distribution including the training data sample and the test data sample based on the Gaussian process regression model after the training is completed:

7. The gas flow rate analysis and prediction method for wellhead choke of gas well based on Gaussian process regression according to claim 6, wherein the prediction deviation is any one of mean square deviation, root mean square deviation, mean absolute deviation, and absolute value of mean relative deviation; The mean square deviation is calculated by the following formula: