NSF Award
2128241
Projecting species’ responses to climate change at continental scales is a current “grand challenge” of ecological research. Insects are sensitive indicators of both climate and land-use change and recent studies indicate widespread declines in many geographic regions. To predict changes across entire ranges, a variety of species distribution models have been developed, but rarely account for regional variability, ecological interactions or a species’ potential to adapt to changing conditions. This project spans multiple institutions situated in the United States’ southwest, polar north, and temperate eastern regions. A series of physiological experiments will be implemented for five widespread butterfly species with populations sourced from different biomes within each of their ranges. Caterpillars will be subjected to a range of conditions mimicking past, current and future climates. Their development rate, survivorship, immune response, and genetic structure and gene expression (which genes are actively coding for proteins) will be measured and used to build models that predict distributional shifts. Data collected by community (“citizen”) scientists will be used to validate the models. This project requires substantial cross-disciplinary collaboration, and a central goal is to recruit diverse trainees at the graduate and undergraduate levels and train them in the “science of team science”. Project trainees will develop independent research ideas that align with and expand the project’s scope and travel between and work at collaborating institutions as an inter-lab exchange to learn new techniques and be exposed to different research philosophies. Finally, the project has significant management implications for insect biodiversity conservation. <br/><br/>Projecting responses to climate change at continent scales is a current “grand challenge” of ecological research. Insects are the most diverse and ecologically important terrestrial animal taxon and are strongly affected by climate change. To predict changes, species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely implemented across many taxa. SDMs, however, rarely account for ecological interactions, plasticity or evolutionary adaptive potential owing to the extensive physiological and ecological data required to parameterize such models. The biology of Lepidoptera, particularly butterflies, is extremely well observed, thus it is logistically feasible to build upon past knowledge and collect additional data that enables mechanisms to be more seamlessly integrated into SDMs. Multiple populations for each species will be sourced from different biomes across its range. Caterpillars will be reared in common gardens under a range of temperature conditions mimicking past, current and future climates. Their development rate, survivorship, immune response, genetic structure and gene expression will be measured and used to build models that predict future distributions. Distribution data collected by community (“citizen”) scientists will be used to validate and improve models and allow robust estimates of uncertainty.<br/><br/>This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
