Patent Application
20180165605
The present disclosure relates to a system comprising a CPU, storage and database of patent grants or applications and other relevant data for computation of an estimation of patent quality utilizing machine learning algorithms for factor selection and classification based on non-linear models.
Attempts have been made to assess or to estimate the value or expected life of a patent or a patent application based on historic data about patents. However, testable and reproducible quantitative metrics are difficult to come by. Also, using a combination of quantitative factors available from a universe of patent information to arrive at a patent value or estimated patent life or the like is difficult given the sheer number of patent-related and patent application-related factors and given that each patent represents a unique invention. Therefore, finding the combination of factors that produces an optimal or maximized patent quality/patent life profile has been a difficult task.
Existing methods of patent quality ratings depend on either linear combinations of simple factors (e.g. the number of forward citations combined with age of the patent) or traditional linear and statistical mathematical tools based on an iterative human driven factor selection process. Using a “brute force” approach to finding the most relevant factors entails examining every factor and every combination of factors. The solution space for a machine learning problem should be considered as all possible combinations of factors and coefficients. Therefore, the only way to find the optimal solution using the brute force approach is consider every element in the solution space iteratively; this process is known as brute-force computation. As a simple example for a problem with two factors, A and B, and no coefficients, the algorithm would need to consider at least:
Generally, using a brute-force approach, each additional factor, or combination of factors, increases the complexity and the processing time exponentially.
A machine-learning based artificial intelligence device for finding an estimate of patent quality is disclosed. Such a device may include:
The heuristic search may include an artificial neural network model. The maximizing iteratively may include changing a number of hidden layers of the artificial neural network.
The maximizing iteratively may include using a genetic algorithm or an artificial neural network model and a genetic algorithm.
The cost function may be a receiver operating characteristic and the yield may be calculated according an area under a curve.
The estimate of patent quality may represent an estimate of a lifetime of the patent.
The patent data retriever may be configured to receive a second set of patent data comprising at least one of patent application data and patent data for a plurality of patents, and
wherein the device may be configured to test a validity of the final set of binary classifiers using the second set of patent data.
The device may also include a user information manager configured to receive patent information for a target patent and to report the estimate of patent quality according to the final set of binary classifiers.
Also contemplated is a system that includes such a device in combination with a second device communicatively connected to the device over a network. Such a second device may include:
Further aspects of the disclosure are explained in the description below and in the accompanying Drawings.
A computer system, network platform including a server computer, a processor-readable medium, a method, and means for implementing the method according to the present disclosure employs a set of algorithms based on training data receive from a database of patent information, including granted patents and patents applications in addition to other relevant patent data, including aggregate data for patent examination, grant, opposition, abandonment, annuity/maintenance fee payment, and the like. A device or a system according to the present disclosure implements a suite of binary classifiers to predict a measure of patent quality, for example, whether a given issued patent will be maintained over the lifetime of that patent. Other measures of quality may include whether a patent will be licensed or upheld against legal challenge, and the like. The system may also be adapted to predict a measure of quality of other intangible assets.
Supervised machine learning algorithms are used to select an optimal set of input factors from a number of raw and computed inputs and then to find a set of binary classifier from a set of classifiers, for example using Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) or Support Vector Machines (SVC). The disclosed invention trains classifiers to represent a prediction based on a non-linear computation of the input factors.
The system selects features using a heuristic search procedure such as a genetic algorithm or simulated annealing. The algorithms accept as input a series of features identified from information for a set of patents and patent applications. A random or pseudo-random initial weight for each feature is assigned and the search proceeds to iterate over the input set of data. At each iteration the heuristic evaluates a cost function and determines whether the current state of feature weights is more optimal than the previous state. The final step is to mutate the feature weights before starting the next iteration. The mutation computation varies based on the algorithm; in a genetic algorithm, the weights are mutated randomly or pseudo-randomly, while using simulated annealing the weights are modified according to an energy transition equation. The heuristic terminates after a given number of iterations or when the changes to the feature weight drops below a given threshold. The threshold may be a user-defined parameter chosen based on experience with the system. The final selected factors are used to train a binary classifier.
The cost function utilized by the search procedure heuristic is used to optimize the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (
A larger sampling may yield a more accurate result for the model. For example, 100,000 patent records may be used and divided into the three sets to yield good sampling sets. The sets need not be of equal size. However, it will be understood that more than 100,000 or fewer than 100,000 records may be used. The training, validation and testing sets need not necessarily follow particular size guidelines and may be dependent on the size of the total population. For example, four million active U.S. patents versus 1.5 million active EPO patents may have different training set sizes. The machine learning may be customized for country or region, such that patent value/estimate of patent quality returned for a patent queried may be based only on data obtained from patent information for the country or region of the patent queried. Similarly, the patent value/estimate of patent quality may be customized for a given field of technology or scientific endeavor, for example, mechanical arts, pharmaceuticals, chemical fields, computer-related technology, and the like. In this way, the patent value/estimate of patent quality returned for queried patent of field of technology or scientific endeavor X may be based only on data obtained based on patents/patent applications of field X.
The resultant binary classifier is evaluated against the cross-validation set and an ROC curve is computed.
Specificity is defined as the number of true negatives divided by the total number of negatives. For example, in a data set with ten total negatives and finding two of them, specificity equals 2/10 or 0.2. The false positive rate is then 1-0.2 which equals 0.8. “ANN” refers to the artificial neural network classifier, and “NBC” refers to the Naive Bayes classifier.
The system maintains a database of raw patent factors that are derived from the patent publication such as the number of claims, number of citations, countries of issuance, patent litigation and licensing, are also stored in the database. Additional such factors may include:
From these raw factors, the input features to be evaluated by the search heuristic are calculated through a number of methods including:
1. Linear combination (e.g., adding factors together)
2. Non-linear calculations (e.g., squaring a factor or taking the square root)
3. Ratios of raw factors (e.g., number of patents with 10 claims against all the total number of all patients)
These methods produce around 200 features, with approximately 30 from raw factors, 50 ratio factors and the rest being combinations. With a base set of features calculated, the set of available features can be further expanded by computing linear and non-linear combinations of all features to be evaluated by the search heuristic. This expansion results in a combinatorial increase in the number of available features. The binary classifiers are trained using supervised machine learning with three sets of data: training set, cross-validation set, and a testing set. The input sets comprise a random or pseudo-random sampling of issued patents from a given patent office. In a preferred embodiment, the system then creates multiple binary classifiers, each predicting the maintenance of patent for a given maintenance period. The final output of each classifier is combined into a final score.
A significant advantage of the use of machine learning when identifying input factors and computing the classification model is that the model can be continuously updated in response to changes in the market, such as increased rates of abandonment or litigation—or to the availability of additional raw factors. In this way the rating can be constantly maximized for prediction accuracy.
The system effectively works in two different phases. The first phase, described in
For regular score computation, the system starts by downloading the electronic record for each published and granted patent from a given patent office (e.g., the European Patent Office) and stores the downloaded information in a database. In a preferred embodiment, the download process runs automatically in response to external events; e.g., if the issued patents are published on Tuesday morning, the system may automatically start to download that week's issued patents on Tuesday afternoon.
Most patent offices publish the patent data in a standardized XML format. The downloading process parses the data from the XML and stores the information in the database. The system then proceeds to compute the input features to the classifier using the raw factors from the patent record. The final score is computed using the trained classifier and then saved with the patent record.
In addition to information in the electronic record stored, additional raw factors may be calculated from the data in the electronic record. A list of raw factors can be found in Table 1. However, it will be understood that such a list is not exhaustive and that many other such raw factors may be used in addition to, or instead of those listed.
The system computes the model by first computing a set of features from the electronic patent data stored in the database. The features fall into two categories. The first category is the raw factors on a patent basis from Table 1. The second are features that are computed over multiple records of patent data (i.e., over the entire set or over a subset). A list of the features considered when training the model is listed in Table 2.
In Table 2, legal status code refers to events during the lifetime of the patent. These include office actions, change of ownership, abandonment, maintenance and expiration. “Week of issuance” may refer to a week number of the year that patent was granted. (e.g. Jan 1 is week 1, etc). “iClaim” means independent claim, Claim type “A” refers to an apparatus claim, claim type “S” to a system claim, claim type “C” to a claim for a compound, and claim type “M” refers to a method claim. “Pendency” may be the time between the application initial filing date or a provisional initial filing date and the final action, such as a Notice of Allowance or issuance of a patent.
The plus sign (“+”) on the appended list of legal status codes indicates those status codes that are positive, meaning having received some positive treatment, the minus sign (“−”) indicates those status codes that are negative. Those with neither sign mean neutral treatment. Individual specific legal status codes need not be counted, but a total number of status codes that are positive, negative and neutral may be counted.
In a preferred embodiment, training the model begins by exporting three sets of randomly or pseudo-randomly selected issued patent records. The first is the training set that is used to evaluate a set of parameters in the model to determine how accurate the prediction is. The second is a cross-validation set that is used as second check for the accuracy of the prediction. By using a different set to evaluate a set of parameters instead of the training set, the model achieves a greater level of accuracy. The training and cross-validation sets are both used to select parameters in the model. The final set is a testing set that is used to evaluate a complete model for accuracy. The sets are not required to be of any particular size, nor are they required to be the same size.
One further step to prepare for model training is to normalize the input features, with each feature falling between 0 and 1. This step prevents any one set of features from unduly influencing the model. The normalization step produces a scaling weight for each feature that is applied to the features before said feature is used in training or score calculation. For example the range of values for number of backward citations is 0 to 141, so the normalized backward citation for a patent with 40 citations would be 0.28.
What follows is an example of a reduced set of inputs to demonstrate the implementation in model training. Table 3 contains a sample of issued patent records; Table 4 contains a sample training set; Table 5 contains the sample training set with scaled features. In each of Tables 3-5, the columns of each row are continued on the second page of the table (for example, for Table 3, the first column of the second page shows the number of inventors for the documents listed on the first page).
indicates data missing or illegible when filed
indicates data missing or illegible when filed
indicates data missing or illegible when filed
Examples of additional factors that may be used and heuristically searched are provided in the following lists.
After the data is selected and the feature scaling factors are computed, the training of the model starts by randomly or pseudo-randomly choosing features as the input to classification model trainer. Using a genetic algorithm search heuristic, a population of sets of features is created and in each set the features included are randomly or pseudo-randomly selected.
Each population is then used to train a binary classifier in the next step. The output of the classification-training step is a value that indicates how well that collection of features performs on the training set of patent data.
The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model will now be described to illustrate an aspect of the system's search heuristic to find an optimal classifier.
The size of the input layer to the ANN is defined as the number of selected features provided by the feature selector. In an Artificial Neural Network, the calculations “flow” from the input nodes on the left, through the nodes of the hidden layers and finally to the output node, as illustrated in
The system initially considers an ANN with a single hidden layer with size equal to the half the size of the input features. The ANN is then trained using a feedforward cost function and backpropagation algorithms to compute the gradient of errors. Feedforward refers to the process of values propagating from the input along the edges to the hidden nodes and then the computed values from the hidden nodes propagating to the output node. Backpropagation refers to the process of computing the difference between the final output of the classifier against the test set and then computing the error that each of the hidden nodes contributed to that output. Backpropagation then computes the amount of error that each of the input nodes contributed to the final calculation. The result of backpropagation is the gradient of errors, which is a measure of the amount of error at each node along each path through the network. During training, the gradient of errors is used to alter the weights in the neural network to reach the optimal classifier. The errors are computed by evaluating the current ANN on the cross-validation set. This avoids the problem of the classifier being too specific (i.e., overfit) to the training set.
Once an optimal solution, as defined by a minimization of the difference in the output of the ANN and the testing set, is found, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the ROC curve is calculated by iterating over possible thresholds from 0 to 1 that the ANN uses to determine the output of the classifier. For example, if the threshold is 0.4, then any input to the output layer that is greater than 0.4 will be considered a prediction that the patent would be maintained. For each threshold, the system computes the true and false positive and the true and false negative rates. These data points are used to plot the ROC curve and compute the AUC.
After training the first classifier using the previously described method, the system alters the number of nodes in the hidden layer. The system then repeats the training and AUC computation for the new ANN. If the prediction is better, meaning that a larger area under the ROC curve is yielded, the new parameters are saved and the number of nodes in the input layer is again altered. This proceeds until the maximal AUC is found.
The system then increases the number of hidden layers to two and sets the size of the nodes in each layer to be half the inputs of that hidden layer's inputs. In the current example, this means the first hidden layer has 10 nodes and the second hidden layer has 5.
The system trains the ANN using the previously described method. The number of nodes in the hidden layers is then altered and the new ANN is trained. This proceeds until the maximal AUC is found. The classifier-training step returns the parameters of the binary classifier that had the maximal AUC.
The last step in the process is that the feature selection search heuristic changes the set of features using a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm selects the best sets of features to use in the next iteration of the search by choosing those features that performed best as measured by the maximum AUC that set. The best sets of features are combined and mutated (slight, random or pseudo-random changes) to create a new population of candidate solutions.
The classification-training step is then executed again, and the feature selection search heuristic collects all of the AUC outputs, then selects the best feature sets and creates a new population. This process continues until the selection process no longer finds better solutions. The best solution from all iterations of the feature selection search is the model that will be used in calculation of the patent scores.
The output of a binary classifier during training may be executed through a step function so that the actual prediction is a binary decision. The raw patent score output from this system is this value not executed through the step function; this raw comparative score forms the basis for the computation of additional scores.
By way of an example of an implementation,
Patent value determination application 40 may obtain information from a database 33 or more than one such database. One or more software applications providing the functionality herein described may be provided by a server or server bank in the cloud or on a proprietor's premises, or may be downloaded to a computer or portable device of the user to make possible the delivery of patent or patent application value to a requesting user. Patent value determination application 40 illustrated in
The present methods, functions, systems, computer-readable medium product, or the like may be implemented using hardware, software, firmware or a combination of the foregoing, and may be implemented by one or more automated processors or computer chips or cores, in one or more computer or other processing system, such that no human operation may be necessary.
After system start, the system at S2 retrieves a set of training patent data, for example, over a network, such as the Internet. As illustrated in
At S14, a validation patent data set may be received. However, it will be understood that the training patent data, the validation patent data and the testing patent data may all be received at the same time and randomly or pseudo randomly assigned to one of the three groups. At S15, the validation patent data is used to validate the final set of binary classifiers. At S16, testing patent data are received, and at S17 the testing patent data set is used to validate the final set of binary classifiers.
At S18, a patent of interest is received by the system, and at S19, an estimate of patent life or other patent quality estimate is generated using the binary classifiers arrived at through the machine learning algorithm. At S20, a report of the patent quality estimate, such as the patent life for the patent of interest is reported.
Thus described is a machine learning solution that may be more efficient, more speedy and may improve the functioning of a computer including an automated data processor or a set of automated data processors carrying out the machine learning when compared with, for example, a device implementing brute-force solutions. Utilizing a machine-learning approach as described herein according to the present disclosure, the solution space to be searched may be reduced in every iteration because combinations of factors and coefficients that do not lead to an optimal solution can be excluded. Theoretically, while reducing the number of solutions evaluated may exclude the optimal solution, the randomness introduced by the mutation step may be sufficient to reduce this risk. Further, a machine-learning approach as described herein according to the present disclosure may significantly reduce the system resources needed to calculate the solution by more intelligently and efficiently selecting factors and coefficients for evaluation.
For the reasons discussed above, such machine learning approaches may be more expensive to implement, more time and resource intensive, and may consume significantly more computer processing resources. A machine learning solution as described according to the present disclosure may consume less energy and generate less heat when carried out on an automated data processor or set of automated data processors.
A computer system for implementing the foregoing methods, functions, systems and computer-readable storage medium may include a memory, preferably a random access memory, and may include a secondary memory. Examples of a memory or a computer-readable storage medium product include a removable memory chip, such as an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM), a programmable read-only memory (PROM), removable storage unit or the like. The methods and functions can be performed entirely automatically through machine operations, but need not be entirely performed by machines. Similarly, the systems and computer-readable media may be implemented entirely automatically through machine operations but need not be so. A computer system may include one or more processors in one or more units for performing the system according to the present disclosure and these computers or processors may be located in a cloud or may be provided in a local enterprise setting or off premises at a third party contractor, and may communicate with a user requesting an evaluation or estimation of patent or patent application quality on site via a wired or wireless connection, such a through a LAN or WAN, or off site via internet protocol-enabled communication, via a cellular telephone provider or via other such means. Similarly, the information stored and/or the patent database from which the sets of data are extracted, may be stored in a cloud, in an official or third party patent information database, or may be stored locally or remotely. The computer system or systems that enable the user to interact with content or features can include a GUI (Graphical User Interface), or may include graphics, text and other types of information, and may interface with the user via desktop, laptop computer or via other types of processors, including handheld devices, telephones, mobile telephones, smartphones or other types of electronic communication devices and systems.
The communication interface of the Value Evaluation System shown in
While the preferred embodiments of the invention have been illustrated and described, modifications and adaptations, and other combinations or arrangements of the structures and steps described come within the spirit and scope of the application and the claim scope.
The present non-provisional patent application claims the benefit of priority from U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 61/928,806, filed Jan. 17, 2014, the entire contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.
| Number | Date | Country | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61928806 | Jan 2014 | US |
| Number | Date | Country | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parent | 14598879 | Jan 2015 | US |
| Child | 15837652 | US |
