The present disclosure relates to manufacturing planning and more particularly to manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning.
Modern manufacturers often make a variety of products in multiple plants. Larger global manufacturers with more products and manufacturing facilities face many challenges in making decisions rapidly in response to changes in market demands, both domestically and internationally. To remain competitive in the global economy, manufacturers typically strive to minimize their manufacturing footprint, i.e., total number of manufacturing facilities, as a reduced manufacturing footprint lowers investment and ongoing operational expenses. As new products are introduced and old products are phased out, manufacturers must manage the impact of changes to their respective manufacturing footprint (i.e. portfolio of plants) in terms of capability (i.e. size, process technologies, etc.), capacity, and total number of plants.
Investment decisions into plant capacity and corresponding equipment for future products are made well in advance of actual product introduction, due to production line development lead-time constraints. In addition, manufacturing facility investment involves long-term decisions, which are highly sensitive to uncertainty in product demand forecasts. Manufacturing facility decisions also require estimations and some degree of knowledge as to the interaction between future products and the equipment that will be used to manufacture the products. Forecasted demand data usually considers only current and near-term product releases, as product development that may occur several years in the future is difficult to predict with reasonable accuracy. Demand data is typically derived from static, lifecycle averages without consideration as to how product demand may evolve over the life of a product manufacturing cycle. Moreover, transitions and interactions between products and manufacturing capacity for such future products are also challenging to analyze.
It would be beneficial to develop a process that supports flexible decision making for matching existing and future plant capacity to products, while looking for efficiencies through flexible planning over a portfolio of manufacturing plants. By incorporating future product development planning into the analysis, manufacturing portfolio planning could include flexibility for rapidly phasing products in and out at plants already prepared for the changeover well in advance. Manufacturing portfolio planning would further benefit from the development of an automated process that can rapidly update planning to correspond to changes in customer demand for products. Accordingly, there is a need in the art for manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning.
An embodiment of the invention includes a method for manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning. The method includes matching production needs to manufacture a plurality of products with manufacturing capabilities of plants in a manufacturing portfolio. The method also includes developing flexibility scenarios for a manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan. The flexibility scenarios include manufacturing related products at one or more identified plants in the manufacturing portfolio. The method further includes performing statistical analysis of the flexibility scenarios, and evaluating a result of the statistical analysis to determine whether the flexibility scenarios meet a success criterion. The method additionally includes updating the manufacturing portfolio per the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan when the flexibility scenarios meet the success criterion, and outputting the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan.
Another embodiment of the invention includes a computer program product for manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning. The computer program product includes a storage medium readable by a processing circuit and storing instructions for execution by the processing circuit for implementing a method. The method includes matching production needs to manufacture a plurality or products with manufacturing capabilities of plants in a manufacturing portfolio, and developing flexibility scenarios for a manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan. The flexibility scenarios include manufacturing related products at one or more identified plants in the manufacturing portfolio. The method also includes performing statistical analysis of the flexibility scenarios, and evaluating a result of the statistical analysis to determine whether the flexibility scenarios meet a success criterion. The method additionally includes updating the manufacturing portfolio per the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan when the flexibility scenarios meet the success criterion, and outputting the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan.
A further embodiment of the invention includes a system for manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning. The system includes a host system and a data storage device in communication with the host system. The data storage device holding a manufacturing portfolio. The system also includes a manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning tool (MPFPT) executing on the host system. The MPFPT includes computer instructions for matching production needs to manufacture a plurality of products with manufacturing capabilities of plants in the manufacturing portfolio, and developing flexibility scenarios for a manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan. The flexibility scenarios include manufacturing related products at one or more identified plants in the manufacturing portfolio. The MPFPT also includes computer instructions for performing statistical analysis of the flexibility scenarios, and evaluating a result of the statistical analysis to determine whether the flexibility scenarios meet a success criterion. The MPFPT also includes computer instructions for updating the manufacturing portfolio per the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan when the flexibility scenarios meet the success criterion, and outputting the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan.
Other methods, computer program products, and/or systems according to embodiments will be or become apparent to one with skill in the art upon review of the following drawings and detailed description. It is intended that all such additional methods, computer program products, and/or systems be included within this description, be within the scope of the present invention, and be protected by the accompanying claims.
Referring to the exemplary drawings wherein like elements are numbered alike in the accompanying figures:
Exemplary embodiments, as shown and described by the various figures and the accompanying text, provide methods, computer program products and systems for manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning. As a product is developed from an initial concept to a final manufactured product, a number of steps are involved. Early in the product development phase, a product concept matures into a product design architecture, and a high-level product development plan is created. The high-level product plan may specify the duration of the development period, including target completion dates for various tasks such as release to manufacturing engineering for equipment design and manufacturing process development. Furthermore, as the product design matures, more detailed planning is performed to determine specific product features and characteristics, as well as an estimated product demand. Individual product development plans may be bundled into a product portfolio plan for developing products. In exemplary embodiments, a manufacturer with multiple plants or the ability to add new plants captures such information in a manufacturing portfolio that includes a variety of information about each existing or potential manufacturing facility. An allocation between the products and the manufacturing portfolio is performed to establish which products will be manufactured at particular plants. In exemplary embodiments, planning the allocation between products and plants incorporates a flexible decision-making process that tests multiple flexibility scenarios to seek an efficient, low cost solution. A process for manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning is described in greater detail herein.
Turning now to the drawings, it will be seen that in
At block 104, flexibility scenarios for a manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan are developed. A flexibility scenario is a specific set of values for the characteristics and parameters that collectively define a particular configuration of the manufacturing portfolio. Flexibility scenarios may be created for the entire set of plants in the portfolio, or for a narrower subset of plants along with the corresponding products to be manufactured in such plants. At a minimum, the flexibility scenarios include manufacturing related products at one or more identified plants in the manufacturing portfolio. In exemplary embodiments, for each flexibility scenario, developing flexibility scenarios includes identifying one or more of the plants with at least one common characteristic, creating a flexibility connection between the related products at the identified plants, and storing the flexibility scenario. The common characteristic may include manufacturing capacity and market demand forecasts for specific products manufactured at each plant. Alternatively, the common characteristic may include a desired plant conversion or change in plant operating conditions. The development of flexibility scenarios is described in greater detail in reference to
At block 106, statistical analysis of the flexibility scenarios is performed. The statistical analysis may apply a variety of probability-based calculations to establish relative chances of a successful or unsuccessful outcome for each flexibility scenario. The statistical analysis of the flexibility scenarios is described in greater detail in reference to
At block 108, a result of the statistical analysis is evaluated to determine whether the flexibility scenarios meet a success criterion. The success criterion may be defined in terms of various performance metrics. For example, optimization may be performed on seeking a solution that utilizes more than fifty percent of present plant capacity, while minimizing investment in new tooling. Alternatively, the criterion may focus on maximizing net present value of an investment in new equipment that will support manufacturing interchangeability between current and future products. When the flexibility scenarios fail to meet the success criterion, block 104 and subsequent blocks may be performed again using updated flexibility scenarios.
At block 110, when the flexibility scenarios meet the success criterion, the manufacturing portfolio is updated per the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan. Any changes to the manufacturing portfolio may result in an update of the allocation between the one or more products and the manufacturing portfolio. The update to the manufacturing portfolio may trigger the process 100 to run again to confirm that an optimal solution has been achieved.
At block 112, the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan is output. The output can be in a variety of formats, such as text, XML, HTML, portable document format (PDF), or similar formats. The manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan may be written to a database, a file system, or transmitted over a network. In exemplary embodiments, details of the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan are provided to one or more suppliers. The suppliers may react to the details of the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan by changing delivery schedules and adjusting inventory to optimize their performance as well. Suppliers could also use manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning for their own set of products and plants and more closely integrate their portfolios with those of their customers. Various decision makers can take non-automated steps based on the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan, such as making staffing adjustments, and coordinating with parties that do not have direct access to information within the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan.
Turning now to
At block 202 of
At block 208, attributes for the selected flexibility scenario are defined such as a time period, products, and manufacturing plants under consideration from the manufacturing portfolio. It will be understood that within the scope of the invention there may be other selectable flexibility scenario types and characteristics of flexibility, as well as definable parameters for the flexibility scenario other than the examples provided in
At block 210, the type of flexibility scenario is checked. In exemplary embodiments, if the flexibility scenario is product focused, block 212 is performed; otherwise, block 214 is performed. Examples of product focused flexibility scenarios include: a new product into a plant, a current product into a plant, and a modification of a current product in a plant. Conversely, plant focused flexibility scenarios may include a plant conversion and a change in plant operating conditions.
At block 214, each plant in the scenario is identified where a conversion or change in operating conditions is desired. At block 216, for each plant, products affected by conversion or new operating conditions are specified. At block 218, a flexibility connection between the related products at each plant is created. A flexibility connection is the specification that two or more products are similar such that they can share capacity either at a single or at multiple plants (if the similar products are not at the same plant). A logical association between products is created that allows their respective demands to be fulfilled from their shared capacity. At block 220, the flexibility scenario is stored for the statistical analysis process of block 106 of
Returning now to block 212, for each plant in the flexibility scenario, products that share manufacturing capacity are identified. At block 224, specific market demand forecasts are associated to the identified products. In exemplary embodiments, block 224 receives demand parameters from block 258 of
Turning now to
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At block 314, a search of available flexible supply from other connected products inside of the given plant under analysis is performed. At block 316, if flexible supply exists, then block 310 is performed; otherwise, block 318 is performed. At block 318, if demand can be met with overtime production, then block 320 is performed; otherwise, block 322 is performed. At block 320, additional demand is made via overtime. At block 322, a search of available flexible supply from other connected products at other plants elsewhere in the manufacturing portfolio is performed. At block 324, if a flexible supply exists, then block 326 is performed; otherwise, block 328 is performed. At block 326, additional production is made at another plant with flexible supply, and block 304 is performed, again. At block 328, if any products remain in the given plant to balance, then block 306 is performed again; otherwise, block 330 is performed. At block 330, if any plants remain in the flexibility scenario to balance, then block 332 is performed; otherwise, block 340 of
Turning now to
At block 364, all of the flexibility scenarios are compared, and the flexibility scenario with the greatest expected NPV is selected. This is graphically depicted through the example illustrated in
Turning now to
The network 406 may be any type of communications network known in the art. For example, The network 406 may be an intranet, extranet, or an internetwork, such as the internet, or a combination thereof. The network 406 can be a wireless, wired, or fiber optic network.
In exemplary embodiments, the host system 402 accesses and stores information to a data storage device 408. The data storage device 40S refers to any type of storage and may comprise a secondary storage element, e.g., hard disk drive, tape, or a storage subsystem that is external to the host system 402. In alternate exemplary embodiments, the data storage device 408 is internal to the host system 402. It will be understood that the data storage device 408 shown in
In exemplary embodiments, the product portfolio plan 410 holds product-manufacturing characteristics. Product manufacturing characteristics may include quantity, size, pricing targets, parts lists, sub-assembly lists, and cross-compatibility information as related to other products. The product portfolio plan 410 may also include scheduling information for starting and completing production for various products.
In exemplary embodiments, the manufacturing portfolio 412 holds capacity, capability, and geographic information for manufacturing plants. The manufacturing portfolio 412 is analyzed relative to the product portfolio plan 410 to develop a manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan 414. The host system 402 executes computer instructions embodied in a manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning tool (MPFPT) 416 to create and/or modify the manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan 414. In exemplary embodiments, the MPFPT 416 includes computer executable instructions to perform the process 100 of FIG, 1. The MPFPT 416 may be a stand-alone application, a plug-in, a module, or an executable script. In exemplary embodiments, a user of the user systems 404 initiates execution of the MPFPT 416 and receives the resulting output. Alternatively, the user systems 404 may execute any portion of the MPFPT 416, e.g., a distributed computing architecture.
Turning now to
The case studies accessed through the user interface 500 may include multiple flexibility scenarios.
The lifecycle number 718 may further be associated with competitor entry parameters 820. In exemplary embodiments, the competitor entry parameters 820 include a competitor entrance probability 822 and a percent volume reduction profile 824. The use of the competitor entry parameters 820 may enable impact planning for the effects of a competitor's product on a planned product to manufacture. For example, a new competitor product may be launched at any time in the lifecycle of the planned product to manufacture. But, the success of the planned product may be assumed to be constant for the entire duration of the product's lifecycle. In other words, it is assumed that if a product is well received by consumers at its introduction (and hence successful), then it will continue in this state of customer favor for the remainder of the lifecycle. The converse may also be true for unsuccessful products.
In exemplary embodiments, the percent volume reduction profile 824, as well as the percent reduction in demand upper bound 816 and lower bound 818, are used to represent the general decay or “ageing” of the product in the marketplace as initial customer interest and enthusiasm diminishes as time progresses. More innovative products may have a slower rate of decay. The percent reduction in demand upper bound 816 and lower bound 818 may be used in cases where only initial demand estimates are known (e.g., annual demand). If complete estimates are known of demand over the lifecycle of a flexibility scenario, then these may be used in the calculation of probabilistic demand. An example of a demand profile with demand reduction is depicted in
Turning now to
Technical effects and advantages of exemplary embodiments include manufacturing portfolio planning with enhanced flexibility. Through manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning, decisions can be made to support optimizing the allocation of products to plants for both current and future demand predictions, thus lowering total manufacturing cost. Performing manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning as an automated process enables multiple iterations to test various flexibility scenarios, optimizing the result on one or more selectable criteria. In addition, the use of computer-based tools for manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning enables more efficient and rapid creation of a larger and broader set of flexibility scenarios than could otherwise be generated by manual methods. A manufacturing portfolio flexibility plan may give suppliers and other business partners information that they need to keep costs down, matching inventory and distribution with planned manufacturing activities. Performing manufacturing portfolio flexibility planning as an automated process may also support a rapid response to changing market conditions that impact demand in a previously unpredicted manner, for example, a spike in fuel cost diminishing sport utility vehicle sales while increasing compact vehicle sales.
An embodiment of the invention may be embodied in the form of computer-implemented processes and apparatuses for practicing those processes. The present invention may also be embodied in the form of a computer program product having computer program code containing instructions embodied in tangible media, such as floppy diskettes, CD-ROMs, hard drives, universal serial bus (USB) flash drives, or any other computer readable storage medium, such as read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), and erasable-programmable read only memory (EPROM), for example, wherein, when the computer program code is loaded into and executed by a computer, the computer becomes an apparatus for practicing the invention. The present invention may also be embodied in the form of computer program code, for example, whether stored in a storage medium, loaded into and/or executed by a computer, or transmitted over some transmission medium, such as over electrical wiring or cabling, through fiber optics, or via electromagnetic radiation, wherein when the computer program code is loaded into and executed by a computer, the computer becomes an apparatus for practicing the invention. When implemented on a general-purpose microprocessor, the computer program code segments configure the microprocessor to create specific logic circuits.
While the invention has been described with reference to exemplary embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes may be made and equivalents may be substituted for elements thereof without departing from the scope of the invention. In addition, many modifications may be made to adapt a particular situation or material to the teachings of the invention without departing from the essential scope thereof. Therefore, it is intended that the invention not be limited to the particular embodiment disclosed as the best or only mode contemplated for carrying out this invention, but that the invention will include all embodiments falling within the scope of the appended claims. Also, in the drawings and the description, there have been disclosed exemplary embodiments of the invention and, although specific terms may have been employed, they are unless otherwise stated used in a generic and descriptive sense only and not for purposes of limitation, the scope of the invention therefore not being so limited. Moreover, the use of the terms first, second, etc. do not denote any order or importance, but rather the terms first, second, etc. are used to distinguish one element from another. Furthermore, the use of the terms a, an, etc. do not denote a limitation of quantity, but rather denote the presence of at least one of the referenced item.