Patent Application
20110202385
The present invention relates to a technique for, in product designing/development work (project) of software, hardware, and a system composed thereof, supporting decision-making relating to risk items (an unclear matter, an unfixed matter, etc. in the project) which exert influences upon fluctuations in profits (development and manufacturing costs, the sales amount, the amount of profit and loss, etc.) while the project is carried out.
In a start-up or initial stage of a project that involves product development and sales, generally manufacturers check whether or not the project can be achieved and judge a prospect of profits. For the purpose of making such check and judgment, manufacturers evaluate the presence or absence of risk items on the project by use of a checklist, etc. For project activities that should always produce products with originality under the condition that resources and schedules are restricted, many risk items are recognized in the start-up or initial stage of the project. It is not necessarily realistic to handle all of risk items that will not be remarkably problematic, and therefore it is desirable to identify, from many risk items, risk items for which the most effective result is expected, and decide to take corresponding countermeasures for the identified risk items.
Heretofore, a decision-making support technique for handling risk items of a project is disclosed in, for example, JP-A-2001-195483. In such a decision-making support technique, risk impact is calculated on the basis of a probability of occurrence, an impact range, impact severity, and an occurrence frequency, which are optionally inputted by a user on a risk item basis, and thereby the risk handling priority order is presented.
The related art typified by JP-A-2001-195483 has problems that the handling priority order largely depends on input information including a probability of occurrence, an impact range, impact severity, and an occurrence frequency, which are optionally inputted by a user on a risk item basis, and that it is difficult for the user to make a quantitative evaluation about the input information. In addition, the related art further has a problem that risk items are treated as independent events, and thus combined impact of the risk items, which are primarily interdependent on one another, is not taken into consideration.
The present invention has been made in view of the abovementioned problems, and an object of the present invention is to provide a technique for presenting the handling priority order in consideration of combined impact of respective risk items of a project without depending on evaluation information about the respective risk items, which is inputted by a user.
In order to achieve the abovementioned object, according to one aspect of the present invention, there is provided a project supporting method which presents information on the order of priority of risk information associated with a target project, the method comprising the steps of: determining, on a past project basis, similarity between risk information for respective risk items that is characteristic to the target project and risk information for respective risk items that is characteristic to each of a plurality of past projects; extracting past projects, the determined similarity of which is higher; creating profit impact-severity information for the respective risk items based on the risk information for the respective risk items and an estimated value and an actual value which are profit parameters, wherein the profit parameters are related to profits of products obtained by each of the extracted past projects having the higher similarity; creating handling priority-order information from the created profit impact-severity information for the respective risk items; and outputting the created handling priority-order information and the created profit impact-severity information for the respective risk items.
In order to achieve the abovementioned object, according to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a project supporting method which presents information on the order of priority of risk information associated with a target project, the method comprising the steps of: providing first and second information storing means; storing in the first information storing means, on past projects basis, an estimated value and an actual value which are profit parameters related to profits of products of the plurality of past projects and risk information for respective risk items that is characteristic to the past projects; storing in the second information storing means information indicating severity of risk for the respective risk items with respect to the target project; determining, on past projects basis, similarity between the risk information on each of the past projects stored in the first information storing means and information indicating the severity of risk for the respective risk items with respect to the target project and stored in the second information storing means; extracting past projects, the determined similarity of which is higher; creating profit impact-severity information for the respective risk items based on risk information for the respective risk items and an estimated value and an actual value which are the profit parameters for each of the extracted past projects; and outputting the created profit impact-severity information for the respective risk items.
Moreover, in order to achieve the abovementioned object, according to still another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a project supporting apparatus which presents information on the order of priority of risk information associated with a target project, the apparatus comprising: first information storing means for storing in the first information storing means, on past projects basis, an estimated value and an actual value which are profit parameters related to profits of products of the plurality of past projects and risk information for respective risk items that is characteristic to the past projects; second information storing means for storing in the second information storing means information indicating severity of risk for the respective risk items with respect to the target project; project similarity calculation means for determining, on past projects basis, similarity between the risk information on each of the past projects stored in the first information storing means and information indicating the severity of risk for the respective risk items with respect to the target project and stored in the second information storing means; risk-item profit impact-severity information creation means for extracting past projects for which the similarity determined by the project similarity calculation means is higher, and then for creating profit impact-severity information for the respective risk items based on risk information for the respective risk items and an estimated value and an actual value which are profit parameters for each of the extracted past projects; and output means for outputting the risk-item profit impact-severity information.
Furthermore, in order to achieve the abovementioned object, according to a further aspect of the present invention, there is provided a project supporting program used for presenting information on the order of priority of risk information associated with a target project, the program executing: a first storing step for storing in the first information storing means, on past projects basis, an estimated value and an actual value which are profit parameters related to profits of products of the plurality of past projects and risk information for respective risk items that is characteristic to the past projects; a second storing step for storing in the second information storing means information indicating severity of risk for the respective risk items with respect to the target project; a similarity calculation step for determining, on past projects basis, similarity between the risk information on each of the past projects stored in the first information storing means and information indicating the severity of risk for the respective risk items with respect to the target project and stored in the second information storing means; an extraction step for extracting past projects for which the similarity determined in the similarity calculation step is higher; a risk-item profit impact-severity information creation step for creating profit impact-severity information for the respective risk items based on risk information for the respective risk items and an estimated value and an actual value which are profit parameters for each of the extracted past projects extracted in the extraction step; and an output step for outputting the risk-item profit impact-severity information created in the risk-item profit impact-severity information creation step.
The present invention makes it possible to support early and reliable decision to properly handle risks, thereby enabling a reduction in deviation of actual results from a project profit plan, and further enabling contribution to an improvement in operating profits.
These features and advantages of the invention will be apparent from the following more particular description of preferred embodiments of the invention, as illustrated in the accompanying drawings.
One embodiment of a project supporting apparatus according to the present invention will be described with reference to drawings as below.
A project supporting apparatus 100 in this embodiment is an apparatus for outputting the priority order in which risk items of a project are to be handled. As shown in
The data storage unit 170 stores a risk-item contents table 171, a target project risk-item parameter table 172, a past project risk-item parameter table 173, a past project profit data table 174, a project similarity table 175, a risk-item association rule parameter table 176, and a risk-item handling priority parameter table 177. The risk-item contents table 171 contains contents of a plurality of risk items such as an unclear matter and an unfixed matter in an initial stage of a project, and IDs of the risk items. The target project risk-item parameter table 172 contains risk-item parameters indicating the severity of risk for respective risk items for a project to be supported (hereinafter, a group of risk-item parameters is referred to as a “risk-item parameter group”). The past project risk-item parameter table 173 contains risk-item parameter groups of a plurality of past projects. The past project profit data table 174 contains various kinds of profit data relating to a plurality of past projects. The project similarity table 175 contains similarity between a risk-item parameter group of a target project and each of risk-item parameter groups of a plurality of past projects. The risk-item association rule parameter table 176 contains an association rule between profit data and a plurality risk items. The risk-item handling priority parameter table 177 contains handling priorities for respective risk items.
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Next, the operation of the project supporting apparatus 100 will be described.
In order to output handling priority-order information about a plurality of risk items of a project by the project supporting apparatus 100, it is necessary to input profit data and risk-item parameters of a number of past projects into the project supporting apparatus 100 beforehand.
For this reason, the data input unit 110 of the project supporting apparatus 100 accepts IDs of a plurality of past projects, estimated cost values and actual cost values of the past projects, and risk-item parameter groups of the past projects through the input-output unit 160. The accepted risk-item parameter group of a past project is a group of risk-item parameters that correspond to respective risk items and that are stored in the risk-item contents areas 171b (
Once the acceptance of the profit data and risk-item parameters of the past projects described above is completed, the project supporting apparatus 100 is ready to accept risk-item parameters, etc. of a target project at any time, and thereby to create handling priority-order information of risk items of the target project. In other words, the project supporting apparatus 100 is ready to execute steps shown in flowcharts of
The operation of the project supporting apparatus 100 will be described according to the flowcharts shown in
As shown in the flowchart of
A user of the project supporting apparatus 100 views the input screen 161 to operate the input-output unit 160, and then inputs a project ID “PJ00101” of a target project into the project ID input field 161a. Moreover, referring to risk item contents displayed in the risk-item description fields 161c, if the user knows a risk for a risk item, a check mark is placed in the corresponding risk-item presence evaluation field 161d.
After the user completes inputs to all the fields 161a to 161d, the user presses an [Execute] button 161e of the input screen 161. If the user presses the [Execute] button 161e before the completion of inputting to the fields 161a to 161d, the data input unit 110 determines that data input is not completed (S11), and then prompts the user to input data that is not yet inputted. In case data input has been completed, the data input unit 110 instructs to store input data in corresponding areas (S20).
To be more specific, the data input unit 110 instructs to store the input data in the target project risk-item parameter table 172 shown in
Next, the single risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 130 reads the risk-item parameter table 172 of the target project, the risk-item parameter table 173 of past projects, and the profit data table 174 of the past projects from the data storage unit 170 (S30); and the single risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 130 and the project similarity calculation unit 120 then create profit impact-severity information of a single risk item (S40).
Here, the creation process (S40) of creating the profit impact-severity information of the single risk item by the single risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 130 and the project similarity calculation unit 120 will be described according to a flowchart shown in
The project similarity calculation unit 120 extracts one risk-item parameter group of any project ID (for example, parameters of risk items for a project ID “PJ00001”) from the past project risk-item parameter table 173 (
The similarity S may be determined by, for example, the following equation (Equation 1) that is the easiest technique among similarity calculation techniques. However, collaborative filtering may be employed, or other techniques such as clustering may be employed.
where:
Pa,j: j-th risk-item parameter of a target project
Pp,j: j-th risk-item parameter of a past project
n: the number of risk-item parameters that constitute a risk-item parameter group
The similarity S determined by this equation (Equation 1) takes a value that is 0 or more and 1 or less; and a value closer to 1 indicates that the similarity is higher.
Next, the project similarity calculation unit 120 checks if there is a risk-item parameter group of a past project which is still not extracted (S43), and repeats the processing in the steps S41 to S43 described above until risk-item parameter groups of past projects are all extracted.
On the completion of extracting all of the risk-item parameter groups of the past projects, the project similarity calculation unit 120 extracts IDs of past projects which rank is among the top N high-similarity past projects (for example, 4 past projects) from the project similarity table 175 (
Next, the single risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 130 uses the estimated cost values E and actual cost values R corresponding to the IDs of the past projects extracted in the step (S44) to determine a cost deviation ratio Dr of each past project by the following equation (Equation 2) (S45).
Dr=(E−R)/E (Equation 2)
For example, in the case of the past project ID “PJ000010”, the single risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 130 refers to the past project profit data table 174 shown in
The single risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 130 calculates single profit impact severity of respective risk item IDs on the cost deviation ratio Dr. The single risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 130 then stores the calculated single profit impact severity in the single profit impact areas 177b of the risk-item handling priority parameter table 177 respectively.
In the case of, for example, a risk item ID “risk item 1”, in order to determine the single profit impact severity, project data is divided into two on the basis of a value (0 or 1) of a risk-item parameter, which indicates “having no risk” or “having a risk” respectively, and then an average value of cost deviation ratios Dr is calculated for each of the divided project data. The abovementioned calculation is executed for all risk items m in like manner, and a risk item, an average value of which has significant difference, is extracted from among the risk items by use of a t-test that is one of statistical methods. Further, multi-regression analysis, in which the extracted risk items are explanatory variables and a cost deviation ratio Dr is an objective variable, is performed, and a regression coefficient of each risk item which is the explanatory variable may be used as impact severity. Other techniques may also be used.
The creation process (S40) of creating the profit impact-severity information of the single risk item executed by the single risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 130 and the project similarity calculation unit 120 ends by the above operation.
The operation of the project supporting apparatus 100 will be described according to the flowchart shown in
After the creation process (S40) of creating the profit impact-severity information of the single risk item ends, the multiple risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 140 and the project similarity calculation unit 120 create profit impact-severity information of multiple risk items (S50).
Here, the creation process (S50) of creating the profit impact-severity information of the multiple risk items by the multiple risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 140 and the project similarity calculation unit 120 will be described according to a flowchart shown in
The project similarity calculation unit 120 extracts one risk-item parameter group from the past project risk-item parameter table 173 (
The similarity S may be determined by, for example, the equation 1 that is the easiest technique among similarity calculation techniques. However, collaborative filtering may be employed, or other techniques such as clustering may be employed.
Next, the project similarity calculation unit 120 checks if there is a risk-item parameter group of a past project which is still not extracted (S53), and repeats the processing in the steps S51 to S53 described above until risk-item parameter groups of past projects are all extracted.
On the completion of extracting all of the risk-item parameter groups of the past projects, the project similarity calculation unit 120 extracts IDs of past projects which rank is among the top N high-similarity past projects (for example, 4 past projects) from the project similarity table 175 (
Next, the multiple risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 140 uses the estimated cost values E and actual cost values R corresponding to the IDs of the past projects extracted in the step 54 to determine an exceeded cost presence parameter Z of each past project by the following equation (Equation 3) (S55).
Dr=E−R≧0Z=0,Dr=E−R<0
Z=1 (Equation 3)
The multiple risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 140 extracts an association rule between an exceeded cost (exceeded cost presence parameter=1) and a risk-item parameter group, and then stores the extracted association rule in the parameter area 176b of the risk item association rule parameter table 176 (
The association rule means such a relationship that, for example, if “risk is present for risk item 1” and “risk is present for risk item 2”, “costs are exceeded”, which is expressed as follows: “Risk item 1=1 ∩Risk item 2=1 Exceeded cost parameter=1”. This association rule may be determined by performing association rule analysis in which, for example, an exceeded cost presence parameter is an objective variable, and a risk-item parameter group is an explanatory variable, so as to determine support which means the frequency of appearance of rules, and confidence which means a simultaneous occurrence probability, and then by extracting an association rule in which the support and the confidence are specified values or more (for example, support >0.90, confidence >0.70). Other techniques may also be used.
Multiple profit impact severity is calculated from the association rule extracted by the multiple risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 140 and from the single profit impact severity stored in the single profit impact area 177b of the risk-item handling priority parameter table 177. Then the calculated multiple profit impact severity is stored in the multiple profit impact-severity area 177c of the risk-item handling priority parameter table 177 (S57).
The multiple profit impact severity may be determined in such a manner that, for example, on the basis of an association rule in which “Risk item 1=1 ∩Risk item 2=1Exceeded cost parameter=1”. In this case, if single profit impact severity of the risk item 1 is 1.05 and single profit impact severity of the risk item 2 is 0.25, multiple profit impact severity is 1.30. Other techniques may also be used.
The creation process (S50) of creating profit impact-severity information of multiple risk items executed by the multiple risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 140 and the project similarity calculation unit 120 ends by the above operation.
The operation of the project supporting apparatus 100 will be described according to the flowchart shown in
After the creation process (S50) of creating profit impact-severity information of multiple risk items ends, the multiple risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 140 creates handling priority-order information of each risk item ID (S60).
In the step of creating handling priority-order information of each risk item ID, the multiple risk-item profit impact-severity calculation unit 140 uses information stored in the single profit impact-severity area 177b of the risk-item handling priority parameter table 177 and information stored in the multiple profit impact-severity area 177c to calculate a handling priority-order parameter of each risk item ID. The calculated handling priority-order parameter is stored in the handling priority order area 177d.
The handling priority order may be determined in such a manner that, for example, a higher handling priority order is given to a risk item, a multiple profit impact severity value of which is higher, and in the case of the same multiple profit impact severity values, a higher handling priority order is given to a risk item, a single profit impact severity value of which is higher. Other techniques may also be used.
After the creation process (S60) of creating handling priority-order information of each risk item ID ends, the risk handling priority-order display unit 150 instructs the input-output unit 160 to display an output screen 162 shown in
The output screen 162 displays a target project ID area 162a, risk item ID areas 162b, risk presence areas 162c, single profit impact-severity areas 162d, multiple profit impact-severity areas 162e, and handling priority order areas 162f.
As described above, in this embodiment, handling priority-order information of a plurality of risk items of a target project is displayed, which makes it possible to assist users in, for example, checking whether or not the target project can be executed, and determining how to handle risks for the purpose of ensuring profits of the target project.
Incidentally, although development and manufacturing costs are used as profit parameters in this embodiment, the present invention is not limited to them. The sales amount of products of a project, the sales quantity of the products, the amount of profit and loss, and the like, may be used as profit parameters. In this case, profit fluctuation information is sales-amount fluctuation information, sales-quantity fluctuation information, and profit-and-loss amount fluctuation information.
The invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential characteristics thereof. The present embodiment is therefore to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive, the scope of the invention being indicated by the appended claims, rather than by the foregoing description, and all changes which come within the meaning and range of equivalency of the claims are therefore intended to be embraced therein.
| Number | Date | Country | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-030022 | Feb 2010 | JP | national |
