Patent Application
20200311774
The present disclosure relates generally to an improved computer system and, in particular, to a method and apparatus for machine learning predictive modeling. Still more particularly, the present disclosure relates to a method and apparatus for predicting income based on geography.
Ideally, physical signage space is positioned where consumers in a target demographic will encounter the signage. However, determining where consumers in that target demographic are with a high degree of probability is exceedingly difficult.
Often consumers may be targeted based on having discretionary money to spend. However, simply looking at a static snapshot of so-called “high rent” areas provides a very simplistic model of approximately likely discretionary income.
Furthermore, once physical signage is present, owners of digital signs will rent advertising based on location and time of day. Owners of a digital sign desire information about a quantity of consumers encountering the signage during different times of the day to know how to market and price the signage. Further, owners of a digital sign also desire information about a quantity of consumers of a target demographic, such as a desired amount of discretionary money, and to know how to market and price the signage. The challenge is determining the signage locations that have the most disposable income as well as the times for each signage location that have the most disposable income.
Therefore, it would be desirable to have a method and system that provides predictive modeling and indices that predict an encountered income for a selected set of either predefined signage locations or time periods.
An embodiment of the present disclosure provides a computer-implemented method for predictive modeling. The computer system aggregates sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location and performs iterative analysis on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model. The computer system then populates, using the predictive model, a database with predicted values of encountered income for a selected set of predefined signage locations. The computer system converts the predicted values of encountered income in the database into percentages of observed values of encountered income for signage locations within the selected set over a specified time period to create indices of encountered income. The computer system then rank orders the signage locations within the selected set according to their indices of encountered income.
Another embodiment of the present disclosure provides a machine learning predictive modeling system comprising a computer system and one or more processors running on the computer system. The one or more processors aggregate sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location; perform iterative analysis on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model; populate, using the predictive model, a database with predicted values of encountered income for a selected set of predefined signage locations; convert the predicted values of encountered income in the database into percentages of observed values of encountered income for signage locations within the selected set over a specified time period to create indices of encountered income; and rank order the signage locations within the selected set according to their indices of encountered income.
Yet another embodiment of the present disclosure provides a computer program product for machine learning predictive modeling comprising a persistent computer-readable storage media; first program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for aggregating sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location; second program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for performing iterative analysis on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model; third program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for populating, using the predictive model, a database with predicted values of encountered income for a selected set of predefined signage locations; fourth program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for converting the predicted values of encountered income in the database into percentages of observed values of encountered income for signage locations within the selected set over a specified time period to create indices of encountered income; and fifth program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for rank ordering the signage locations within the selected set according to their indices of encountered income.
Still another embodiment of the present disclosure provides a computer-implemented method for predictive modeling. The computer system aggregates, by one or more processors, sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location and performs iterative analysis on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model. The computer system then populates, by one or more processors using the predictive model, a database with predicted values of an encountered income for a selected set of time periods. The computer system converts, by one or more processors, the predicted values of an encountered income in the database into percentages of observed values of encountered income for time periods within the selected set at a predefined signage location to create indices of encountered income. The computer system then rank orders, by one or more processors, the time periods within the selected set according to their indices of encountered income.
Yet another embodiment of the present disclosure provides a machine learning predictive modeling system comprising a computer system and one or more processors running on the computer system. The one or more processors aggregate sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location; perform iterative analysis on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model; populate, using the predictive model, a database with predicted values of encountered income for a selected set of time periods; convert the predicted values of encountered income in the database into percentages of observed values of encountered income for time periods within the selected set at a predefined signage location to create indices of encountered income; and rank order the time periods within the selected set according to their indices of encountered income.
Another embodiment of the present disclosure provides a computer program product for machine learning predictive modeling comprising a persistent computer-readable storage media; first program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for aggregating sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location; second program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for performing iterative analysis on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model; third program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for populating, using the predictive model, a database with predicted values of encountered income for a selected set of time periods; fourth program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for converting the predicted values of encountered income in the database into percentages of observed values of encountered income for time periods within the selected set at a predefined signage location to create indices of encountered income; and fifth program code, stored on the computer-readable storage media, for rank ordering the time periods within the selected set according to their indices of encountered income.
The features and functions can be achieved independently in various embodiments of the present disclosure or may be combined in yet other embodiments in which further details can be seen with reference to the following description and drawings.
The novel features believed characteristic of the illustrative embodiments are set forth in the appended claims. The illustrative embodiments, however, as well as a preferred mode of use, further objectives and features thereof, will best be understood by reference to the following detailed description of an illustrative embodiment of the present disclosure when read in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:
The illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account one or more different considerations. For example, the illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account that several factors affect income distribution across different geographic regions.
The illustrative embodiments also recognize and take into account that different types of products are targeted to different types of markets, requiring identification of the most lucrative target markets. The illustrative embodiments further recognize and take into account that average disposable income can vary between regions with similar geographic and non-geographic characteristics.
The illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account that when a company considers a sign location, the company would like to know the size of their target demographic. The illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account that the company would like to understand trends over time, within potential target locations as well as current pay and trending pay changes. The illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account that it would be desirable to compare areas based on a point in time as well as trends over time to identify the best possible location for establishing new signage locations.
The illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account that digital signage pricing varies based on location and time of day. Digital signage companies would like to know what areas different demographics will be spending time at and/or passing by. The illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account that decisions about pricing by location and time of day are desirably calculated using the best possible information about the areas of travel of individuals. The illustrative embodiments create indices to compare multiple time periods for digital signage based on data including at least one of home addresses, work addresses, commute paths, job codes, and pay ranges by geography.
The illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account that it would be desirable to create indices to compare multiple geographic signage areas based on industries, job codes, and pay ranges. The illustrative embodiments recognize and take into account that it would be desirable to compare digital signage areas based on a point in time as well as trends over time to help identify fixed pricing for that particular location and as well as how pricing may change over time.
Thus, a method and apparatus that would allow for accurately analyzing consumer exposure to signage at designated locations or signage at designated times would fill a long-felt need in the field of marketing. Further, a method and apparatus that would allow for predicting encountered income for signage at designated locations or signage at designated times would fill a long-felt need in the field of marketing. The illustrative embodiments create indices to compare multiple signage locations based on industries, job codes, and pay ranges. Some of the illustrative embodiments create indices to compare multiple time periods for a digital sign based on industries, job codes, and pay ranges.
As used herein, the phrase “at least one of,” when used with a list of items, means different combinations of one or more of the listed items may be used and only one of each item in the list may be needed. In other words, “at least one of” means any combination of items and number of items may be used from the list, but not all of the items in the list are required. The item may be a particular object, thing, or a category.
For example, without limitation, “at least one of item A, item B, or item C” may include item A, item A and item B, or item B. This example also may include item A, item B, and item C or item B and item C. Of course, any combinations of these items may be present. In some illustrative examples, “at least one of” may be, for example, without limitation, two of item A, one of item B, and ten of item C; four of item B and seven of item C; or other suitable combinations.
With reference now to the figures and, in particular, with reference to
The computer-readable program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer, a programmable data processing apparatus, or other device to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer, a programmable apparatus, or other device to produce a computer implemented process, such that the instructions which execute on the computer, the programmable apparatus, or the other device implement the functions and/or acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks.
In the depicted example, server computer 104 and server computer 106 connect to network 102 along with storage unit 108. In addition, client computers include client computer 110, client computer 112, and client computer 114. Client computer 110, client computer 112, and client computer 114 connect to network 102. These connections can be wireless or wired connections depending on the implementation. Client computer 110, client computer 112, and client computer 114 may be, for example, personal computers or network computers. In the depicted example, server computer 104 provides information, such as boot files, operating system images, and applications to client computer 110, client computer 112, and client computer 114. Client computer 110, client computer 112, and client computer 114 are clients to server computer 104 in this example. Network data processing system 100 may include additional server computers, client computers, and other devices not shown.
Program code located in network data processing system 100 may be stored on a computer-recordable storage medium and downloaded to a data processing system or other device for use. For example, the program code may be stored on a computer-recordable storage medium on server computer 104 and downloaded to client computer 110 over network 102 for use on client computer 110.
In the depicted example, network data processing system 100 is the Internet with network 102 representing a worldwide collection of networks and gateways that use the Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) suite of protocols to communicate with one another. At the heart of the Internet is a backbone of high-speed data communication lines between major nodes or host computers consisting of thousands of commercial, governmental, educational, and other computer systems that route data and messages. Of course, network data processing system 100 also may be implemented as a number of different types of networks, such as, for example, an intranet, a local area network (LAN), or a wide area network (WAN).
As used herein, “a number of,” when used with reference to items, means one or more items. For example, “a number of different types of networks” is one or more different types of networks.
The illustration of network data processing system 100 is not meant to limit the manner in which other illustrative embodiments can be implemented. For example, other client computers may be used in addition to or in place of client computer 110, client computer 112, and client computer 114 as depicted in
In the illustrative examples, the hardware may take the form of a circuit system, an integrated circuit, an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a programmable logic device, or some other suitable type of hardware configured to perform a number of operations. With a programmable logic device, the device may be configured to perform the number of operations. The device may be reconfigured at a later time or may be permanently configured to perform the number of operations. Programmable logic devices include, for example, a programmable logic array, programmable array logic, a field programmable logic array, a field programmable gate array, and other suitable hardware devices. Additionally, the processes may be implemented in organic components integrated with inorganic components and may be comprised entirely of organic components, excluding a human being. For example, the processes may be implemented as circuits in organic semiconductors.
Turning to
Computer system 200 comprises processing unit 216, machine intelligence 218, and indexing program 230. Machine intelligence 218 comprises machine learning 220 and predictive algorithms 222.
Machine intelligence 218 can be implemented using one or more systems such as an artificial intelligence system, a neural network, a Bayesian network, an expert system, a fuzzy logic system, a genetic algorithm, or other suitable types of systems. Machine learning 220 and predictive algorithms 222 may make computer system 200 a special purpose computer for dynamic predictive modelling of encountered income according to at least one of signage location or a time period.
In an embodiment, processing unit 216 comprises one or more conventional general purpose central processing units (CPUs). In an alternate embodiment, processing unit 216 comprises one or more graphical processing units (GPUs). Though originally designed to accelerate the creation of images with millions of pixels whose frames need to be continually recalculated to display output in less than a second, GPUs are particularly well suited to machine learning. Their specialized parallel processing architecture allows them to perform many more floating point operations per second than a CPU, on the order of 1000× more. GPUs can be clustered together to run neural networks comprising hundreds of millions of connection nodes.
Indexing program 230 comprises information gathering 252, selecting 232, modeling 234, comparing 236, indexing 238, ranking 240, and displaying 242. Information gathering 252 comprises internal 254 and external 256. Internal 254 is configured to gather data from internal databases 260. External 256 is configured to gather data from external databases 270.
Thus, processing unit 216, machine intelligence 218, and indexing program 230 transform a computer system into a special purpose computer system as compared to currently available general computer systems that do not have a means to perform machine learning predictive modeling. Currently used general computer systems do not have a means to accurately predict encountered income according to signage location. Currently used general computer systems do not have a means to accurately predict encountered income according to time period.
Turning to
In an illustrative embodiment, financial data 320 comprises employee financial data, including employee salary 322 and withholdings 324. Information regarding employee salaries is maintained in salary 322. Information about the number and amount of deductions is maintained in withholdings 324.
Personal data 330 comprises employee personal information and employee personal data, including residence 332 and marital status 334. Information regarding the specific geographic region of employee residence is maintained in residence 332. The more specific and smaller the predefined region in questions (e.g., zip/postal code, state, multistate region, etc.), the more accurate the predictive model. Information about employee marital status is maintained in marital status 334. Marital status 334 can be extrapolated from tax filing status and/or from insurance and benefits forms.
Employment data 340 comprises shift 341, work location 342, job type 343, and industry/sector 344. Information regarding the employee's office location (e.g., zip/postal code, state, multistate region, etc.) is maintained in work location 342. Information regarding the employee's shift, such as days worked, a start time, an end time, a length of shift, a rotation schedule, or a shift number (e.g., first shift, second shift, etc.) is maintained in shift 341. Information regarding the employee's position (e.g. job title, job code, assigned tasks, etc.) is maintained in job type 343. Information about the employer's industry/sector is maintained in industry/sector 344. A sector identifies a high-level group of related businesses. It can be thought of as a generic type of business. For example, the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) uses a six digit code to identify an industry. The first two digits of that code identify the sector in which the industry belongs.
Regional data 350 comprises information about general economic trends and roadway information within a predefined geographic region (e.g., zip/postal code, state, multistate region, etc.). Information regarding unemployment in the region is maintained in unemployment rate 352. Information regarding the types of industries/sectors within the region is maintained in industries/sectors 354. Information regarding home prices in the region is maintained in home values 356. Information regarding housing rental costs and rates for the region is maintained in rental costs 358.
Information regarding traffic is maintained in traffic 360. Traffic 360 includes traffic information for any desired period of time. Traffic 360 may include at least one of current traffic conditions or anticipated traffic conditions based on historical data. Traffic 360 includes traffic information based on any desired time intervals (e.g. 5 min, 15 min, 1 hour, etc.).
Information regarding road construction and road closures is maintained in road construction/closures 362. Road construction/closures 362 includes information describing implementation of planned construction (e.g. locations, lengths, number of lanes, dates, and times of construction). In some illustrative examples, road construction/closures 362 includes information describing unplanned lane closures (e.g. lane closures due to automobile accidents, weather, or other unplanned events).
The illustrations of the different components in
For example, internal databases 260 in
Turning to
It should be emphasized that the specific sequence of steps in the illustrative embodiment shown in
Process 400 begins by calculating employee salary (step 402). Next, process 400 calculates a total amount of payroll deductions (step 404). These deductions can include retirement/savings, insurance deductions for family members, and similar items. Taking such withholdings into account gives a more accurate picture of employees' actual available funds for purchases and spending habits than simply nominal salary.
Next, process 400 determines tax filing status (step 406). The tax filing status (i.e. single or joint) can indicate the presence (or lack thereof) of more than one income within a household.
Process 400 then determines a geographic region of residence (step 408). The size of the predefined region can vary in size (e.g., postal/zip code, city, state, multistate region, etc.). The smaller the region, the more precise the predictive model.
In some illustrative examples, after the geographic region is determined, home value trends within that region are determined (step 410). Step 410 may be optional. Home value can be both a measure of wealth as well as a measure of living costs. Generally, as home values increase, the income of the owners increases as well. However, some people buy the most expensive house lenders will allow, pushing the limits of their available cash flow. Furthermore, the wealth effect of home value can reverse in an economic downturn marked by falling home values. Therefore, calculating trends over specified time periods produces more accurate predictive models than looking at a snapshot of housing costs and home values at a given point in time.
In some illustrative examples, process 400 also calculates rental cost trends in the region (step 412). Step 412 may be optional. Like home values, rental costs are representative of living expenses and overall income and lifestyle. Again, calculating trends produces more accurate predictive modeling of how income is trending in specific regions than a snapshot of rental costs at any given time.
Process 400 determines the geographic region of employment (step 413). The size of the predefined region can vary in size (e.g., postal/zip code, city, state, multistate region, etc.). The smaller the region, the more precise the predictive model. In some illustrative examples, the region of residence and the region of employment are the same. In some illustrative examples, the region of residence and the region of employment are different.
In some illustrative examples, process 400 calculates growth trends for the employee's employer over a specified time period (step 414). Step 414 may be optional. This also points to the probable future income of an employee beyond a snapshot of current salary. Is the employer hiring, downsizing, and/or automating? In addition, if a particular employer accounts for a significant percentage of employment in the predefined region in question (e.g., “factory town”), growth trends for that employer might have a disproportionate effect on the predictive model for that region.
In some illustrative examples, process 400 calculates growth trends over a specified time period for the industry/sector in which the employee is employed (step 416). Step 416 may be optional. This measure helps capture non-local economic factors that might impact the local regional economy but might not be properly accounted for in the predictive model if only local data were used.
In some illustrative examples, employment trends for the selected region are calculated for a specified time period (step 418). Step 418 may be optional. Again, trends provide better predictive modeling than a momentary snapshot. For example, a region (e.g., zip code, city) might have a relatively high average income, but if unemployment in the area is on the rise, a predictive model that relied on that momentary current income would not be very accurate going forward.
In some illustrative examples, process 400 calculates the diversity of industries/sectors within the selected region (step 420). Step 420 may be optional. This can include both the number of different industries/sectors in the region but also the percentages of employment for which they account. The diversity of industries/sectors of employment affects the potential upside or vulnerability of a region to trends in a particular industry/sector. Taken together with the other factors above, this measure can help the predictive model account for the interplay between local and non-local economic factors on the regional economy.
Process 400 calculates commutes based on the determined region of residence from step 408 and region of employment from step 413 (step 422). Commutes are paths between the region of residence and the region of employment. Commutes are paths which individuals may travel between their place of employment or their place of residence. There will often be multiple viable routes or commutes between a place of residence and a place of employment. A commute may be selected based on a desire to avoid construction, avoid toll roads, arrive in a shortest period of time, avoid traffic lights, or using any other desired criteria. In some illustrative examples, commutes are calculated taking into account at least one of traffic or road construction/closure data.
In some illustrative examples, process 400 determines traffic (step 424). Step 424 may be optional. In some illustrative examples, process 400 determines traffic based on historical trends. In some illustrative examples, process 400 determines traffic based on current traffic reports.
In some illustrative examples, process 400 determines road closures/construction (step 426). Step 426 may be optional.
In some illustrative examples, process 400 determines a shift that is worked (step 428). In some illustrative examples, the shift worked influences the most desirable commute. For example, traffic patterns are different at different times of the day. A night shift worker may traverse a different path between two points than a day shift worker. By determining a shift worked, a window of time that a consumer is traveling in selected regions or areas within the commute can be determined.
The method of the present disclosure utilizes machine learning and predictive algorithms such as those provided by machine intelligence 218 in
Turning to
Process 500 begins by aggregating sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income, employment data, and geographic location (step 502). Process 500 aggregates the regional income, employment data associated with the factors determined in the process flow in
After the dataset is aggregated, process 500 scrubs the dataset (step 504). Very large datasets, sometimes referred to as Big Data, often contain noise and complicated data structures. Bordering on the order of petabytes, such datasets comprise a variety, volume, and velocity (rate of change) that defies conventional processing and is impossible for a human to process without advanced machine assistance. Scrubbing refers to the process of refining the dataset before using it to build a predictive model and includes modifying and/or removing incomplete data or data with little predictive value. It can also entail converting text-based data into numerical values (one-hot encoding) or convert numerical values into a category.
Iterative analysis is performed on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model. Preparation for and performance of the iterative analysis is performed in steps 506-512.
After the dataset has been scrubbed, process 500 divides the data into training data and test data to be used for building and testing the predictive model (step 506). To produce optimal results, the same data that is used to test the model should not be the same data used for training. The data is divided by rows, with 70-80% used for training and 20-30% used for testing. Randomizing the selection of the rows avoids bias in the model.
Process 500 then performs iterative analysis on the training data by applying predictive algorithms to construct a predictive model (step 508). There are three main categories of machine learning: supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement. Supervised machine learning comprises providing the machine with test data and the correct output value of the data. Referring back to table 600 in
If unsupervised learning is used, not all of the variables and data patterns are labeled, forcing the machine to discover hidden patterns and create labels on its own through the use of unsupervised learning algorithms. Unsupervised learning has the advantage of discovering patterns in the data no one previously knew existed. Examples of algorithms used in unsupervised machine learning include k-means clustering (k-NN), association analysis, and descending clustering.
After the model is constructed, the test data is fed into the model to test its accuracy (step 510). In an embodiment, the model is tested using mean absolute error, which examines each prediction in the model and provides an average error score for each prediction. If the error rate between the training and test dataset is below a predetermined threshold, the model has learned the dataset's pattern and passed the test.
If the model fails the test, the hyperparameters of the model are changed and/or the training and test data are re-randomized, and the iterative analysis of the training data is repeated (step 512). Hyperparameters are the settings of the algorithm that control how fast the model learns patterns and which patterns to identify and analyze. Once a model has passed the test stage, it is ready for application.
Whereas supervised and unsupervised learning reach an endpoint after a predictive model is constructed and passes the test in step 510, reinforcement learning continuously improves its model using feedback from application to new empirical data. Algorithms such as Q-learning are used to train the predictive model through continuous learning using measurable performance criteria (discussed in more detail below).
After the model is constructed and tested for accuracy, process 500 uses the model to calculate predicted encountered income for a desired set of variables, such as a selected set of predefined signage locations or a selected set of time periods (step 514). When the selected set is of predefined signage locations, the signage locations include at least one of current signage locations or potential signage locations. In some illustrative examples, the signage locations included in the set might have similar characteristics other than geographic proximity, such as, for example, population size and/or density, industry/sector distributions, urban, rural, technology companies, heavy industry, agriculture, etc.
The predicted encountered income for the set is then converted into a percentage of observed values of encountered income of the individual signage locations or the individual time periods in the set to form an index (step 516). The index is calculated by dividing the observed value by the predicted value and then multiplying by 100. A percentage greater than 100% identifies a signage location that has greater encountered income than most signage locations within the set. A percentage less than 100% identifies signage locations that have lower encountered income than most signage locations within the set.
After the indices have been calculated, they are used to rank order the items of the set, either signage locations or time periods (step 518). Rank order allows comparison of encountered income between signage locations that have similar characteristics, whichever characteristics those happen to be as determined by the modeler. The characteristics may be chosen according to the type of product being marketed. The signage locations with those characteristics that have the highest indices are likely to be the most lucrative target markets. When the set comprises time periods, rank order allows comparison of encountered income between time periods for a signage location.
If reinforcement learning is used with the predictive modeling, the encountered income rankings are compared to the actual observed encountered incomes over a subsequent time period (e.g., month, quarter, year, etc.) (step 520). The actual encountered income levels for the set variables in question might not conform as expected to the relative index rankings. Furthermore, the sample data used to construct the predictive model might become outdated. Updated regional income and employment data is collected after the subsequent time period and fed back into the machine learning to update and modify the predictive model (step 522).
Turning to
Method 700 aggregates, by one or more processors, sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location (operation 702). The plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location includes at least one of salary, total payroll deductions, tax filing status, region of residence, home values within said region, rental costs within said region, job type, shift, work location, traffic data, road construction/closures, employer growth trends, industry/sector growth trends, regional employment, or industry/sector diversity. In some illustrative examples, the plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location are used to calculate additional elements such as commutes, disposable income, or any other desirable element in predicting values of an encountered income.
Method 700 performs, by one or more processors, iterative analysis on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model (operation 704). In some illustrative examples, the machine learning uses supervised learning to construct the predictive model. In some illustrative examples, the machine learning uses unsupervised learning to construct the predictive model. In some illustrative examples, the machine learning uses reinforcement learning to construct the predictive model.
Method 700 populates, by one or more processors using the predictive model, a database with predicted values of an encountered income for a selected set of predefined signage locations (operation 706). An encountered income is a variable indicative of a value of visibility. An encountered income takes into account a quantity of consumers encountering the sign as well as the income of the consumers encountering the sign. For example, in some illustrative examples, an encountered income is an average income of consumers encountering the sign in a time period. In other illustrative examples, an encountered income is a cumulative calculated income of consumers encountering the sign in a time period. In yet another illustrative example, an encountered income is a median income of consumers encountering the sign in a time period. In yet another illustrative example, an encountered income is a quantity of consumers having a minimum desired income that encounter the sign in a time period. In an illustrative example, an encountered income is a percentage of consumers encountering the sign that have a minimum desired income in a time period. In other illustrative examples, an encountered income is a weighted value taking into account the incomes and quantities of consumers encountering the sign in a time period. The selected set of predefined signage locations includes at least one of locations where signs are currently located or potential locations for future signage.
Method 700 converts, by one or more processors, the predicted values of an encountered income in the database into percentages of observed values of encountered income for signage locations within the selected set over a specified time period to create indices of encountered income (operation 708). Method 700 rank orders, by one or more processors, the signage locations within the selected set according to their indices of encountered income (operation 710). Afterwards, method 700 terminates.
In some illustrative examples, method 700 compares, by one or more processors, the rank ordering of encountered income for the selected set of predefined signage locations to observed encountered income for the predefined signage locations over a second specified time period (operation 712). In these illustrative examples, method 700 aggregates, by one or more processors, updated sample data over the second specified time period (operation 714). In these illustrative examples, method 700 updates, by one or more processors, the predictive model using machine learning incorporating the updated sample data for the second specified time period (operation 716).
Turning to
Method 800 aggregates, by one or more processors, sample data regarding a plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location (operation 802). The plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location includes at least one of salary, total payroll deductions, tax filing status, region of residence, home values within said region, rental costs within said region, job type, shift, work location, traffic data, road construction/closures, employer growth trends, industry/sector growth trends, regional employment, or industry/sector diversity. In some illustrative examples, the plurality of factors associated with income and geographic location are used to calculate additional elements such as commutes, disposable income, or any other desirable element in predicting values of an encountered income.
Method 800 performs, by one or more processors, iterative analysis on the sample data using machine learning to construct a predictive model (operation 804). In some illustrative examples, the machine learning uses supervised learning to construct the predictive model. In some illustrative examples, the machine learning uses unsupervised learning to construct the predictive model. In some illustrative examples, the machine learning uses reinforcement learning to construct the predictive model.
Method 800 populates, by one or more processors using the predictive model, a database with predicted values of an encountered income for a selected set of time periods (operation 806). Method 800 converts, by one or more processors, the predicted values of an encountered income in the database into percentages of observed values of encountered income for time periods within the selected set at a predefined signage location to create indices of encountered income (operation 808). Method 800 rank orders, by one or more processors, the time periods within the selected set according to their indices of encountered income (operation 810). Afterwards, method 800 terminates.
In some illustrative examples, method 800 compares, by one or more processors, the rank ordering of encountered income for the selected set of time periods to observed encountered income for the time periods from a second sample period (operation 812). In some illustrative examples, method 800 aggregates, by one or more processors, updated sample data from a second sample period (operation 814). In some illustrative examples, method 800 updates, by one or more processors, the predictive model using machine learning incorporating the updated sample data (operation 816).
The illustrative embodiments thus produce the technical effect of constructing accurate, complex predictive models from large datasets and do so in a timely manner in the face of rapidly changing empirical data. The illustrative embodiments produce the technical effect of constructing accurate, complex predictive models that predict values of encountered income for at least one of signage locations or time periods for a set of signage locations. The predictive models take into account at least one of a region of residence, a work location, or a salary. The predictive models also take into account commutes based on at least one of a shortest path, predicted traffic, current traffic, road construction/closures, or a work shift.
The flowcharts and block diagrams in the different depicted embodiments illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of some possible implementations of apparatuses and methods in an illustrative embodiment. In this regard, each block in the flowcharts or block diagrams may represent at least one of a module, a segment, a function, or a portion of an operation or step. For example, one or more of the blocks may be implemented as program code.
In some alternative implementations of an illustrative embodiment, the function or functions noted in the blocks may occur out of the order noted in the figures. For example, in some cases, two blocks shown in succession may be performed substantially concurrently, or the blocks may sometimes be performed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. Also, other blocks may be added, in addition to the illustrated blocks, in a flowchart or block diagram.
Turning now to
Processor unit 904 serves to execute instructions for software that may be loaded into memory 906. Processor unit 904 may be a number of processors, a multi-processor core, or some other type of processor, depending on the particular implementation. In an embodiment, processor unit 904 comprises one or more conventional general purpose central processing units (CPUs). In an alternate embodiment, processor unit 904 comprises one or more graphical processing units (CPUs).
Memory 906 and persistent storage 908 are examples of storage devices 916. A storage device is any piece of hardware that is capable of storing information, such as, for example, without limitation, at least one of data, program code in functional form, or other suitable information either on a temporary basis, a permanent basis, or both on a temporary basis and a permanent basis. Storage devices 916 may also be referred to as computer-readable storage devices in these illustrative examples. Memory 906, in these examples, may be, for example, a random access memory or any other suitable volatile or non-volatile storage device. Persistent storage 908 may take various forms, depending on the particular implementation.
For example, persistent storage 908 may contain one or more components or devices. For example, persistent storage 908 may be a hard drive, a flash memory, a rewritable optical disk, a rewritable magnetic tape, or some combination of the above. The media used by persistent storage 908 also may be removable. For example, a removable hard drive may be used for persistent storage 908.
Communications unit 910, in these illustrative examples, provides for communications with other data processing systems or devices. In these illustrative examples, communications unit 910 is a network interface card.
Input/output unit 912 allows for input and output of data with other devices that may be connected to data processing system 900. For example, input/output unit 912 may provide a connection for user input through at least one of a keyboard, a mouse, or some other suitable input device. Further, input/output unit 912 may send output to a printer. Display 914 provides a mechanism to display information to a user.
Instructions for at least one of the operating system, applications, or programs may be located in storage devices 916, which are in communication with processor unit 904 through communications framework 902. The processes of the different embodiments may be performed by processor unit 904 using computer-implemented instructions, which may be located in a memory, such as memory 906.
These instructions are referred to as program code, computer-usable program code, or computer-readable program code that may be read and executed by a processor in processor unit 904. The program code in the different embodiments may be embodied on different physical or computer-readable storage media, such as memory 906 or persistent storage 908.
Program code 918 is located in a functional form on computer-readable media 920 that is selectively removable and may be loaded onto or transferred to data processing system 900 for execution by processor unit 904. Program code 918 and computer-readable media 920 form computer program product 922 in these illustrative examples. In one example, computer-readable media 920 may be computer-readable storage media 924 or computer-readable signal media 926.
In these illustrative examples, computer-readable storage media 924 is a physical or tangible storage device used to store program code 918 rather than a medium that propagates or transmits program code 918. Alternatively, program code 918 may be transferred to data processing system 900 using computer-readable signal media 926.
Computer-readable signal media 926 may be, for example, a propagated data signal containing program code 918. For example, computer-readable signal media 926 may be at least one of an electromagnetic signal, an optical signal, or any other suitable type of signal. These signals may be transmitted over at least one of communications links, such as wireless communications links, optical fiber cable, coaxial cable, a wire, or any other suitable type of communications link.
The different components illustrated for data processing system 900 are not meant to provide architectural limitations to the manner in which different embodiments may be implemented. The different illustrative embodiments may be implemented in a data processing system including components in addition to or in place of those illustrated for data processing system 900. Other components shown in
Thus, the illustrative examples provide a method, computer system, and computer program product that can be used in decision making regarding placement and pricing for signage. More specifically, the illustrative examples provide a method, computer system, and computer program product that predictively model the encountered income for a signage location for a designated time period.
In one illustrative example, one or more technical solutions are present that overcome a technical problem with the conventionally subjective analysis utilized to project future success of signage placement. In one illustrative example, one or more technical solutions are present that overcome a technical problem with the conventionally subjective analysis utilized in setting pricing for time periods for digital signs. As a result, one or more technical solutions may provide a technical effect of at least one of increasing speed, reducing cost, or reducing errors in sign placement and advertisement pricing. One or more technical solutions are presented in which predictive modeling is utilized to objectively analyze locations and/or time periods for signage using an encountered income.
The description of the different illustrative embodiments has been presented for purposes of illustration and description and is not intended to be exhaustive or limited to the embodiments in the form disclosed. The different illustrative examples describe components that perform actions or operations. In an illustrative embodiment, a component may be configured to perform the action or operation described. For example, the component may have a configuration or design for a structure that provides the component an ability to perform the action or operation that is described in the illustrative examples as being performed by the component.
Many modifications and variations will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art. Further, different illustrative embodiments may provide different features as compared to other desirable embodiments. The embodiment or embodiments selected are chosen and described in order to best explain the principles of the embodiments, the practical application, and to enable others of ordinary skill in the art to understand the disclosure for various embodiments with various modifications as are suited to the particular use contemplated.
