Patent Application
20120316923
The invention relates to a system and method for determining the level of influence of a group of persons.
Conducting operations such as construction projects, business operations, political events, military operations, humanitarian aid, or other activities in a foreign country can be a complicated endeavor. In many situations, there are no clear cut rules concerning how to operate or who to obtain authorization from, and a failure to recognize and communicate with those who wield influence can lead to disastrous consequences. As a result, the proper procedure for conducting operations in a particular country is not always clear, and can vary from region to region.
A method, apparatus, and computer readable medium are disclosed which allow users unfamiliar with a geopolitical landscape to quickly understand and quantify the levels of influence wielded by groups of people in a particular geographic area.
A level of influence (“LOI”) score can be determined for at least one member of a group of persons, for example, based on biographical data corresponding to the at least one member of the group of persons. The LOI scores for the group can be aggregated to determine an aggregate LOI score. The aggregate LOI score can be used to determine a composite LOI for the group of persons.
Exemplary biographical data can include occupation, occupational history, government affiliations, military affiliations, wealth, tribal affiliations, familial affiliations, education, religious convictions, religious affiliations, professional affiliations, military rank, police rank, political views, political affiliations, or other biographical data.
The LOI score for the at least one member of the group of persons can comprise a numerical value representative of the influence an individual with the corresponding biographical data exerts in a geographic arena.
An influenced-group parameter may be utilized in conjunction with the biographical data corresponding to the at least one member of the group of persons to determine the LOI score. In some embodiments, the influenced group parameter can comprise a family, a clan, or a tribe.
When an influenced-group parameter is utilized, the LOI score can be a numerical value representative of the influence an individual with the corresponding biographical data exerts on groups corresponding to the influenced-group parameter in a geographic arena.
A spatial scale parameter may be utilized in conjunction with the biographical data corresponding to the at least one member of the group of persons to determine the LOI score. In some embodiments, the spatial scale parameter can comprise a local scale, a provincial scale, or a national scale.
When a spatial scale parameter is utilized, the LOI score can be, for example, a numerical value representative of the influence an individual with the corresponding biographical data exerts in a geographic arena corresponding to the spatial scale parameter.
In some embodiments, the composite LOI for the group can be determined by comparing the aggregate LOI score with a plurality of score thresholds corresponding to a plurality of influence categories. If the aggregate LOI score is greater than or equal to at least one score threshold, for example, the composite LOI of the group can be set to be the influence category corresponding to the highest score threshold that the aggregate LOI score is greater than or equal to. Otherwise the composite LOI of the group can be set to a default value.
While methods, apparatuses, and computer-readable mediums are described herein by way of examples and embodiments, those skilled in the art recognize that methods, apparatuses, and computer-readable mediums for determining the LOI of a group are not limited to the embodiments or drawings described. It should be understood that the drawings and description are not intended to be limited to the particular form disclosed. Rather, the intention is to cover all modifications, equivalents and alternatives falling within the spirit and scope of the disclosed embodiments. Any headings used herein are for organizational purposes only and are not meant to limit the scope of the description or the claims. As used herein, the word “may” is used in a permissive sense (i.e., meaning having the potential to) rather than the mandatory sense (i.e., meaning must). Similarly, the words “include,” “including,” and “includes” mean including, but not limited to.
I. Determining the Aggregate LOI Score for a Group
II. Determining the Influence Category for a Group
According to the disclosed embodiment, the aggregate LOI score may be used to determine a composite LOI for the group in terms of different categories of influence.
III. Determining the LOI Score of a Person
Person's Biographical Data
The person's biographical data, 301, can include information related to occupation, occupational history, government affiliations, military affiliations, wealth, tribal affiliations, familial affiliations, education, religious convictions, religious affiliations, professional affiliations, military rank, police rank, political views, political affiliations, or any other biographical data. While the disclosed embodiments described the use of biographical data in this context, any other information relevant to the person may be considered when determining the person's LOI score.
Biographical data may be entered into the computing system through any suitable means, for example, manually by one or more users, imported from a storage, downloaded or received from one or more information sources, such as personnel or government databases, populated automatically and updated dynamically using online sources such as websites, blogs, news outlets, twitter feeds, and other electronic resources, and the like. An automatic web scraping program may also be used to search the web for any news or information concerning a particular person, and the system can be populated with any relevant information.
Influence Scores Corresponding to Different Possible Sets of Biographical Data
In order to accurately assess the LOI for an individual, their biographical data can be compared to different possible sets of biographical data which have corresponding LOI scores. The relationship between a particular set of biographical data and a certain LOI score can be determined either manually by a country or region specialist who is familiar with the geopolitical climate of the particular region, or by using a computerized process which can be customized for the particular region or country. The LOI may also be automatically correlated with various biographical factors such as wealth and education level.
Furthermore, a computer program may be used to automatically track any developments or news stories concerning a particular region or individuals and groups in the region, and update the corresponding influence scores depending on the calculated impact of the developments or events in the news story. For example, the portion of the LOI scores corresponding to the biographical data of belonging to a particular tribe, tribe A, may decrease if a prominent leader of tribe A is assassinated, or if tribe A loses ground to another tribe in a dispute. In another example, the portion of the LOI score corresponding to the biographical data of being affiliated with a certain political party may be affected if that political party gains more support in a recent election.
Influenced-Group Parameter
The LOI score for an individual may also be determined with respect to a particular group or type of group.
An exemplary influenced-group parameter comprises a family, a clan, or a tribe. These parameters would indicate how influential a person with a certain set of biographical data is for a family, a clan, and a tribe. So, for example, a person who is a high ranking political party member may have a higher LOI score if the influenced-group parameter is set to the tribe, and a lower LOI score if the influenced-group parameter is set to a family, since high ranking political party members conceivable have less influence over individual families than they do over larger groups.
Although the influenced-group parameter is discussed with reference to the three influenced-group parameters above, any number of parameters may be utilized to reflect the different possible groups of people influenced. For example, the influenced-group parameter could comprise a county parameter, a city parameter, a state parameter, and a nation parameter.
Geographic Arena and the Spatial Scale Parameter
In addition, a spatial scale parameter can also be utilized to affect the LOI score for a person based on the geographic arena over which the LOI is desired. In other words, the spatial scale parameter can be used to indicate how influential a person with a certain set of biographical data is for a geographic region which corresponds to a certain spatial scale.
Exemplary spatial scale parameters may comprise a local scale, a provincial scale, or a national scale. Using this example, a person who is a small business owner may have a higher LOI score if the spatial scale parameter is set to the local scale than the national scale since their dealings occur primarily on the local scale. Similarly, a priest or cleric may have a much higher LOI score when the spatial scale parameter is set to the local scale since their congregation may not extend outside of their small community.
Although the spatial scale parameter is discussed with reference to the three spatial scale parameters above, any number of parameters may be utilized to reflect the different geographic areas over which influence is to be determined.
Spatial Scale Parameter in Conjunction with Influenced-Group Parameter
According to the disclosed embodiment, both the spatial scale parameter and the influenced group parameter may be used to determine a LOI score for an individual, as shown in
Example of LOI Scores in Yemen
Table 1 below shows exemplary LOI scores corresponding to different sets of biographical data using the example of Yemen. For the purpose of the example, the influenced-group parameter is set to the clan or family levels, which in the example of Yemen, are identical.
As shown in Table 1, LOI scores are listed for different categories of persons on three different spatial scales: local, provincial, and national. Each of the categories incorporates the different types of biographical data discussed above, such as occupation, occupational history, government affiliations, military affiliations, wealth, tribal affiliations, familial affiliations, education, religious affiliations, etc.
Table 1 further includes a modifiers column, which allows a greater degree of customization of the LOI score for certain figures who may possess unique characteristics relative to others in that category which allow them to exert more influence or limit their influence. For example, a regular low ranking soldier is considered military personnel and does not exert a large influence at a national level, resulting in a LOI score of 1, but a general would also be considered military personnel and understandably has a modifier of +5 to reflect the much higher than usual influence a general wields compared to other military personnel, resulting in a LOI score of 6 at the national level.
The data and LOI scores shown in Table 1 are only presented as an example of one way that LOI scores could be determined for a particular geographic region, and users could easily customize the biographical data used and scoring methodology to suit their own needs. Every country or region will have unique characteristics which affect the distribution of power and the resulting levels of influence for people. For example, in countries with totalitarian governments, military or political leaders may be considered to have a greater LOI than corresponding leaders in democratic countries, and this could be reflected in their LOI scores.
Table 2 shows exemplary LOI scores at a national level for the influence of a person on a tribe in Yemen. As is evident from Table 1 and Table 2, the LOI scores for a person with a certain set of biographical data can vary even for the same spatial scale parameter, due to changes in the influenced-group parameter. For example, a government official has an LOI score of 6 in Table 2, reflecting the official's influence on tribe at a national level. By contrast, the government official has an LOI score of only 4 at the national level in Table 1, reflecting the official's influence on families and clans at a national level.
Exceptions to Group Influence Category Determination
In some embodiments, exceptions to the normal group aggregate LOI score calculation and influence category determination rules may be put into place for groups that have members with very high levels of influence that disproportionately affect the influence of the group. For example, in the case of Yemen, tribes with members who are the current president, former president, current vice president, current prime minister, current speaker/chairman of the House of Representatives or Shura Council, current army chief of staff, or current director of general intelligence or other national security apparatus, and the like, can automatically be considered to have very high influence. Similarly tribes with members who are the current minister, a Shura Council member, or general secretary of the ruling political party, and the like can be considered to have high influence.
IV. Computing Environment
One or more of the above-described techniques can be implemented in or involve one or more computer systems.
With reference to
A computing environment may have additional features. For example, the computing environment 700 includes storage 740, one or more input devices 750, one or more output devices 760, and one or more communication connections 790. An interconnection mechanism 770, such as a bus, controller, or network interconnects the components of the computing environment 700. Typically, operating system software (not shown) provides an operating environment for other software executing in the computing environment 700, and coordinates activities of the components of the computing environment 700.
The storage 740 may be removable or non-removable, and includes magnetic disks, magnetic tapes or cassettes, CD-ROMs, CD-RWs, DVDs, or any other medium which can be used to store information and which can be accessed within the computing environment 700. In some embodiments, the storage 740 stores instructions for the software 780.
The input device(s) 750 may be a touch input device such as a keyboard, mouse, pen, trackball, touch screen, or game controller, a voice input device, a scanning device, a digital camera, or another device that provides input to the computing environment 700. The output device(s) 760 may be a display, printer, speaker, or another device that provides output from the computing environment 700.
The communication connection(s) 790 enable communication over a communication medium to another computing entity. The communication medium conveys information such as computer-executable instructions, audio or video information, or other data in a modulated data signal. A modulated data signal is a signal that has one or more of its characteristics set or changed in such a manner as to encode information in the signal. By way of example, and not limitation, communication media include wired or wireless techniques implemented with an electrical, optical, RF, infrared, acoustic, or other carrier.
Implementations can be described in the general context of computer-readable media. Computer-readable media are any available media that can be accessed within a computing environment. By way of example, and not limitation, within the computing environment 700, computer-readable media include memory 720, storage 740, communication media, and combinations of any of the above.
Of course,
Having described and illustrated the principles of our invention with reference to described embodiments, it will be recognized that the described embodiments can be modified in arrangement and detail without departing from such principles. It should be understood that the programs, processes, or methods described herein are not related or limited to any particular type of computing environment, unless indicated otherwise. Various types of general purpose or specialized computing environments may be used with or perform operations in accordance with the teachings described herein. Elements of the described embodiments shown in software may be implemented in hardware and vice versa.
In view of the many possible embodiments to which the principles of our invention may be applied, we claim as our invention all such embodiments as may come within the scope and spirit of the following claims and equivalents thereto.
This application claims priority to U.S. Provisional Application No. 61/495,693, filed Jun. 10, 2011, the disclosure of which is hereby incorporated in its entirety.
| Number | Date | Country | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61495693 | Jun 2011 | US |
