This application claims priority of Russian Patent Office application No. 2010130189 filed Jul. 19, 2010, which is incorporated by reference herein in its entirety.
The invention refers to a method for computer-assisted analyzing of a technical system and to a method for computer-assisted diagnosis of a technical system. Furthermore, the invention relates to a technical system and a computer program product.
In technical systems, like turbines and particularly gas turbines for power generation, it is extremely important to detect faults or defects at an early stage such that parts can be replaced before a failure of the turbine. Conventionally, the operator of a technical system performs preventative maintenance actions at fixed intervals in order to avoid potential failures of the system.
Recently, manufacturers of technical systems and particularly gas turbines use computer-assisted condition monitoring methods in which intelligent data analysis systems are employed to assess the operation of the technical system and to detect faults and defects well before a complete failure of the system. To perform such condition monitoring, many sensors are installed in the technical system which collect operational data of the system and transmit this data to a monitoring center. In the monitoring center, the sensor data is preprocessed and analyzed by human operators with the help of rule-based expert systems. However, rule-based expert systems have some drawbacks. The maintainability of such systems is poor. Due to the complex structure of technical systems and the great amount of sensor information, the number of rules for monitoring the condition of the system is normally very big. Furthermore, new rules have to be added manually by engineers. This is usually a very tiring procedure since various conflicts and redundancies with other rules have to be avoided. Moreover, the results of rule-based expert systems are often not very precise.
It is an object of the invention to provide a method for computer-assisted analyzing of a technical system based on which a good and precise diagnosis of the technical system can be provided.
This object is solved by the independent patent claims. Preferred embodiments of the invention are described in the dependent claims.
The method of the invention enables a computer-assisted analysis of a technical system, said technical system being described by a case base comprising a plurality of cases, where each case includes a state vector with a number of attributes, said state vector referring to an operation state of the technical system, and where a class out of a number of classes is assigned to each case, each class referring to an operation condition of said technical system. Hence, the case base for describing the technical system folios a repository of digital data referring to known and/or former measured or sensed operation states. These operation states may be detected by respective sensors included in the technical system or may refer to specific technical parameters of the system.
The method of the invention comprises a step i) in which each case in the case base is processed by extracting for each case a local information vector depending on the classes of one or more neighboring cases in the case base, said neighboring cases being similar to the case being processed according to a neighborhood measure. In a step ii), a classification is learned by machine learning based on said extracted local information vectors of the cases in the case base, resulting in a learned adaptation function providing a class in dependence on a local information vector extracted for a case. The terms “state vector” and “local information vector” are to be interpreted broadly in the context of the invention. I.e., such vectors may only include a single entry and, thus, form a scalar value.
The idea of the invention is based on a combination of the extraction of neighboring cases which is known from conventional case-based reasoning with a machine learning method learning an adaptation function based on the classes of the neighboring cases. As a consequence, a learned classification is provided which is adapted to the specific case base used for describing the technical system. Hence, the analyzing method is well adapted to the technical system in consideration such that good classification results and, thus, a good assessment of the operation condition of the technical system are provided.
The method of the invention may be used for analyzing different technical systems. In a preferred embodiment, the technical system being described by the case base is a turbine, particularly a gas turbine for power generation. In such a turbine, the attributes of the state vector referring to the operation state may for example include the distribution of the temperature in the turbine during operation and/or the gas pressures occurring at various locations in the turbine and/or vibrations in the turbine and/or the consumption of gas and/or the produced electric power of the turbine and/or the efficiency of the turbine and the like. In general, the number of attributes of a state vector may comprise sensor data detected by sensors in the corresponding technical system and/or one or more (known) specifications of the technical system and/or features extracted from sensor data. Those features may be high-level features, which are derived by known statistical or machine learning techniques from the raw sensor data.
In another preferred embodiment of the invention, the neighborhood measure used in step i) represents a distance between the state vectors of two cases, said distance being derived from the number of attributes of said state vectors.
The local information vector extracted in step i) of the inventive method is based on the classes of neighboring cases. There are several possibilities to define appropriate local information vectors. In one embodiment of the invention, the local information vector for at least one case and particularly each case out of the case base comprises an entry for each class of the number of classes where an entry of a class is the minimum distance between the state vector of said at least one case and the state vectors of the cases classified in the class of said entry. In another embodiment, the local information vector for at least one case and particularly each case out of the case base comprises an entry for each class of the number of classes, where said entry is one for the class of the neighboring case being most similar to said at least one case according to the neighborhood measure and where said entry is zero otherwise.
In another embodiment of the invention, a predetermined number of cases being most similar to the case being processed are used in step i) as said one or more neighboring cases. This embodiment refers to the well-known k nearest neighbor's method. In a preferred variant of this embodiment, the local information vector for at least one case and particularly each case out of the case base comprises one of the following vectors:
In another variant of the invention, the local information vector for at least one case and particularly each case out of the case base comprises an entry for each class of the number of classes, where said entry comprises a sum of weighting factors for cases classified in the class of said entry out of the predetermined number of cases, each weighting factor being the reciprocal of the distance between the state vector of the respective case classified in the class of said entry out of the predetermined number of state vectors and the state vector of said at least one case.
Different machine learning methods may be used in step ii) of the inventive method. In preferred embodiments, one or more of the following learning methods are applied:
The above learning methods are well-known in the state of the art and, thus, are not described in detail.
As mentioned above, the number of classes used in the method of the invention refers to operation conditions of the technical system. Different operation conditions may be defined according to the specific system. In a preferred embodiment, the number of classes comprises two classes, one class referring to a normal operation condition of the technical system and the other class referring to an abnormal operation condition of the technical system.
In a further variant of the invention, several case bases referring to different operation regimes of the technical system are provided, each case base being processed separately by steps i) and ii) according to the invention. As a consequence, the analysis of the technical system is adapted to different operation environments, resulting in a more precise analysis. In a preferred embodiment in which the technical system is a turbine, one operation regime refers to the start-up phase of the turbine and another operation regime refers to the operation of the turbine after the start-up phase. The case bases for those two regimes are usually very different such that better results can be achieved by treating those regimes separately.
The above described method for analyzing a technical system provides a learned classification in the form of an adaptation function which may be used for diagnosis of a technical system. Hence, the invention also refers to a method for computer-assisted diagnosis of a technical system, wherein an unclassified case including a state vector referring to a current operation state of the technical system during its operation is classified by a classification learned by the analysis method of the invention, where for applying the classification the local information vector is extracted for the unclassified case by using the appropriate extraction method which has also been used during the learning phase of the classification.
In a preferred embodiment of this method, an unclassified case is added to the case base, after said case has been classified. Thus, the case base is continuously updated by newly classified cases occurring during the operation of the technical system. Hence, the case base continuously grows so that it is advantageous to repeat the above learning of the classification in regular intervals in order to adapt the analysis to new cases in the case base.
In another embodiment of the invention, the method for diagnosis of the technical system is combined with a classification learned for different operation regimes. In such an embodiment, the operation regime of the technical system is detected during its operation and the unclassified case is classified by the learned classification of the case base of the detected operation regime.
Besides the above described methods, the invention also refers to a technical system wherein the technical system is arranged such that the above method for diagnosis is performed during operation of the technical system.
Furthermore, the invention refers to a computer program product, directly loadable into the internal memory of a digital computer, comprising software code portions for performing the inventive method for analyzing a technical system or the inventive method for diagnosis of a technical system when the product is run on a computer.
Embodiments of the invention will now be described with respect to the accompanying drawings wherein
The method of the invention refers to the analysis of a technical system. The result of this method is a learned classification which is used for classifying measured or detected operation states of the technical system, thus leading to a method for a diagnosis of a technical system during its operation.
After having extracted the high-level features, the operation regime of the gas turbine GT is detected. This operation regime describes the operation environment in which the gas turbine GT is operated. Typical operation environments are the start-up phase of the gas turbine as well as the normal operation environment of the gas turbine or other regimes. The step of regime detection is designated by RD in
In the embodiment shown in
In the following, a method for learning a corresponding case-based expert system as shown in
As indicated in
In the embodiment described herein, the following distance is used as a neighborhood measure in order to describe the similarity between a case x and a case
According to the above equation, the Euclidian distance based on the attributes of two cases is used for describing the similarity of two cases.
In conventional methods, which do not use a method for learning a classification, the k nearest neighbors retrieved from a case base as described above are used in order to determine the class of a new case not yet classified. To do so, for an unclassified new case c(x), the retrieved cases c(x1neigh) and the distances to them d(x,x1neigh) are used to predict c(x), i.e. to classify the unclassified case. If exactly the same case cjneigh is found, i.e. if d(x, xjneigh)=0 , then usually the class of the new case is set as follows: c(x)=c(xjneigh). However, if, as occurs far more often, no exact match is found, then the class can be retrieved by the following conventional adaptation strategies using the k nearest neighbors retrieved for the new case c(x):
Conventional nearest neighbor rule:
where δ(i, j)=1 if i=j and δ(i, j)=0 if i≠j ,
Conventional majority voting rule:
Conventional weighted majority voting:
However, the above conventional strategies depend on the data set used and none of the conventional methods is universal in the sense that it may be adequately applied to different data sets. Contrary to that, the idea of the invention is not to fix an adaptation strategy, but to adaptively learn it for each data set in the form of a corresponding case base forming the training data. According to the embodiment described in the following, three different machine learning algorithms are used in order to learn a classification based on a case base CB. To apply the learning method, in a first step S1 shown in
A local information vector based on classes of neighbors and defined as follows:
[c(x1neigh), c(x2neigh), . . . , c(xkneigh)].
This information vector includes an entry for each of k nearest neighbors for the case x, where the entry represents the class of the respective nearest neighbor.
A local information vector based on minimum distances and defined as follows:
[min d(x, X1),min d(x, X2), . . . , min d(x, Xm)].
This information vector includes an entry for each possible class and Xi is the set of all cases of the case base being assigned to class ci.
A local information vector based on the nearest neighbor and being defined as follows:
[0, . . . ,0,1, . . . ,0].
This vector has an entry for each possible class, where the index of the nonzero element is equal to the class of the neighboring case being most similar to the case for which the local information is retrieved. For example, if there are four classes in total, and for some case the class of the most similar case is two, then the above vector will look as follows: [0,1,0,0] . This strategy is similar to conventional nearest neighbor rule.
A local information vector being based on majority and defined as follows:
This local information vector has an entry for each possible class, where the entry represents the count of the cases of the nearest neighbors being assigned to the respective class.
A local information vector based on weighted majority and defined as follows:
This vector comprises an entry for each possible class, where each entry is a sum of weighting factors for neighboring cases classified in the respective class, the weighting factor for each neighboring case being defined as the reciprocal of the above defined distance d (x, x1neigh). This strategy is similar to convention weighted majority rule.
After having extracted the local information LI as shown in
In the following, three machine learning methods which may be used according to the invention will be described. The machine learning methods per se are well known so that the methods will not be explained in detail.
As a first machine learning method, artificial neural networks and particularly feed-forward neural networks may be used. Those networks are biologically inspired function approximation algorithms with successive applications in numerous fields. In one embodiment of the invention, a basic multi-layer perceptron model is used as a neural network which consists of a series of functional transformation. The multi-layer perceptron includes an input layer, an output layer and a number of hidden layers. In one realization of the invention, a network with H sigmoid units in the first hidden layer, L sigmoid units in the second hidden layer and a single linear output unit was used, which can be described by the following function f(x):
According to this function, for a given case x, a corresponding class f(x) is output. In the above formula, w is a set of network adjustable parameters (weights) and σ is the sigmoid activation function, which is defined as follows:
The above term αj(x) refers to the corresponding entries of the local information vector for the case x.
In another embodiment of the invention, decision trees are used for machine learning the adaptation function. Decision trees per se are known. In a variant of the invention, the so-called Classification and Regression Tree (abbreviated as CART) is applied for learning the adaptation function. The CART decision tree is described in detail in document [2]. The main difference of the CART decision tree from other decision tree algorithms is the binary splitting of data. According to this tree, data is splitted more slowly, repeated splits on the same attributes are allowed, thus resulting in a better performance of the CART decision tree in comparison to conventional decision trees.
In another embodiment of the invention, the adaptation function is learned based on classification rules by using genetic programming. In this method, symbolic rules are derived with the help of the search power of a genetic algorithm. A description of this learning method is found in document [3]. The rules learned by this method are represented as conjunction of constraints on attributes. An example of a rule may look as follows:
IF (A1<0.2) AND (23.4<A4<41.7) AND (A10>4.3) THEN class1.
Here A1, A4, and A10 are attributes of the corresponding local information vector LI and class1 is the predicted class. During learning phase, one rule for each class is learned using genetic algorithm to tune numerical boundaries and the number of constraints on attributes.
After having learned the adaptation function AF as shown in
Based on the above described machine learning in the form of a neural network, a CART decision tree or genetic rules as well as based on the above described different local information vectors LI, corresponding embodiments of the invention have been tested by the inventors on different data sets. One example of a data set which was used for testing consists of 400 data points located at a rectangular lattice.
To validate the methods, an average accuracy measure was used. Accuracy is calculated as the number of correctly predicted values (e.g., sum of true positives and true negatives for binary classification) divided by overall number of cases. Cross validation technique was used with 80% of data for training and 20% for testing. Five runs of the respective algorithm were made. The experiment was repeated 100 times with random permutation of data set points beforehand. The averaged accuracy and standard deviation over all runs was calculated. The result of embodiments of the invention in comparison to conventional methods is shown in the following table:
The results of embodiments of the invention are given in the left part of the table and corresponding results for conventional approaches are given in the last column of the table. For those adaptive strategies that do not have corresponding conventional strategies, no number is included in the last column. Evidently, for each learning method and for each type of local information, the method based on the invention leads to accuracies much better than the accuracies of conventional methods.
The invention as described in the foregoing has a number of advantages. Particularly, the classification is appropriately adapted to the training data in the case base used for learning the adaptation function. The method of the invention combines the advantages of two different approaches, namely case-based reasoning for extracting local information vectors and model-based classification in the form of neural networks or decision trees or genetic rules. This combination works well for different categories of training data.
The method of the invention enables to adapt to changing environments of a technical system. E.g., parts of a turbine tend to degrade with time and also new equipment may be installed on the turbine. These changes can be taken into account by updating the case base and repeating the learning of the adaptation function. As a consequence, if the environment changes, the learned adaptation knowledge will be different and fit to the current situation. In comparison to conventional rule-based systems, the maintenance of the method according to the invention is much simpler. Particularly, new cases can be automatically generated during the operation of a technical system and can be easily added to an already existing case base.
Furthermore, the method of the invention has the ability to handle missing inputs. Missing inputs can appear if one case-based expert system is used for technical systems with different configurations. Some equipment may be installed on one technical system and be absent on others. Contrary to rule-based expert systems, a case-based expert system based on the invention can easily handle such missing inputs.
[1] Corchado J. M., Lees B., Fyfe C., Rees N. and Aiken J. (1998), Neuro-Adaptation Method for a Case Based Reasoning System, International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, Anchorage, Ak., USA. May 4-9.
[2] Breiman et al., 1984, Classification and regression trees, Wadsworth, Belmont, pp. 1-58.
[3] Bojarczuk et al., Discovering comprehensible classification rules using genetic programming: a case study in a medical domain, in: Proceedings of the GECCO'99, Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, 1999, pp. 953-958.
Number | Date | Country | Kind |
---|---|---|---|
2010130189 | Jul 2010 | RU | national |