MOLECULAR MARKERS FOR CANCER PROGNOSIS

Abstract
The present invention relates to methods for prediction of an outcome of neoplastic disease or cancer. More specifically, the present invention relates to a method for the prediction of breast cancer by determining in a biological sample from said patient an expression level of a plurality of genes selected from the group consisting of ACTG1, CA12, CALM2, CCND1, CHPT1, CLEC2B, CTSB, CXCL13, DCN, DHRS2, EIF4B, ERBB2, ESR1, FBXO28, GABRP, GAPDH, H2AFZ, IGFBP3, IGHG1, IGKC, KCTD3, KIAA0101, KRT17, MLPH, MMP1, NAT1, NEK2, NR2F2, OAZ1, PCNA, PDLIM5, PGR, PPIA, PRC1, RACGAP1, RPL37A, SOX4, TOP2A, UBE2C and VEGF.
Description

The present invention relates to methods for prediction of an outcome of neoplastic disease or cancer. More specifically, the present invention relates to a method for the prediction of breast cancer.


Cancer is a genetically and clinically complex disease with multiple parameters determining outcome and suitable therapy of disease. It is common practice to classify patients into different stages, grades, classes of disease status and the like and to use such classification to predict disease outcome and for choice of therapy options. It is for example desirable to be able to predict a risk of recurrence of disease, risk of metastasis and the like.


Breast Cancer (BRC) is the leading cause of death in women between ages of 35-55. Worldwide, there are over 3 million women living with breast cancer. OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development) estimates on a worldwide basis 500,000 new cases of breast cancer are diagnosed each year. One out of ten women will face the diagnosis breast cancer at some point during her lifetime.


Breast cancer is the abnormal growth of cells that line the breast tissue ducts and lobules and is classified by whether the cancer started in the ducts or the lobules and whether the cells have invaded (grown or spread) through the duct or lobule, and by the way the cells look under the microscope (tissue histology). It is not unusual for a single breast tumor to have a mixture of invasive and in situ cancer. According to today's therapy guidelines and current medical practice, the selection of a specific therapeutic intervention is mainly based on histology, grading, staging and hormonal status of the patient. Many aspects of a patient's specific type of tumor are currently not assessed—preventing true patient-tailored treatment. Another dilemma of today's breast cancer therapeutic regimens is the practice of significant over-treatment of patients; it is well known from past clinical trials that 70% of breast cancer patients with early stage disease do not need any treatment beyond surgery. While about 90% of all early stage cancer patients receive chemotherapy exposing them to significant treatment side effects, approximately 30% of patients with early stage breast cancer relapse. As such, there is a significant medical need to develop diagnostic assays that identify low risk patients for directed therapy. For patients with medium or high risk assessment, there is a need to pinpoint therapeutic regimens tailored to the specific cancer to assure optimal success.


Breast Cancer metastasis and disease-free survival prediction or the prediction of overall survival is a challenge for all pathologists and treating oncologists. A test that can predict such features has a high medical and diagnostical need. We describe here a set of genes that can predict with the help of an algorithm the prognosis of a breast cancer patient of getting a metastasis within 5 or 10 years after surgical removal of the tumor (high risk) or getting no metastasis (low risk or good prognosis). Surprisingly we found that the endpoint “death after recurrence” can also be perfectly predicted with the here described algorithms. Other endpoints can be predicted as well, like overall and disease-free survival, or death of disease and others.


This disclosure focuses on a breast cancer prognosis test as a comprehensive predictive breast cancer marker panel for lymph node-negative breast cancer patients. About 80% of all breast cancers diagnosed in the US and Europe are node-negative. The prognostic test will stratify diagnosed lymph node-negative breast cancer patients into low, (medium) or high risk groups according to a continuous score that will be generated by the algorithms. One or two cutpoints will classify the patients according to their risk (low, (medium) or high. The stratification will provide the treating oncologist with the likelihood that the tested patient will suffer from cancer recurrence in the absence of therapy. The oncologist can utilize the results of this test to make decisions on therapeutic regimens. Although the test is useful for reducing overtreatment according to current therapy guidelines the test can be used to find optimal therapies especially but not exclusively for patients with medium or high risk.


The metastatic potential of primary tumors is the chief prognostic determinant of malignant disease. Therefore, predicting the risk of a patient developing metastasis is an important factor in predicting the outcome of disease and choosing an appropriate treatment.


As an example, breast cancer is the leading cause of death in women between the ages of 35-55. Worldwide, there are over 3 million women living with breast cancer. OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development) estimates on a worldwide basis 500,000 new cases of breast cancer are diagnosed each year. One out of ten women will face the diagnosis breast cancer at some point during her lifetime. Breast cancer is the abnormal growth of cells that line the breast tissue ducts and lobules and is classified by whether the cancer started in the ducts or the lobules and whether the cells have invaded (grown or spread) through the duct or lobule, and by the way the cells appear under the microscope (tissue histology). It is not unusual for a single breast tumor to have a mixture of invasive and in situ cancer. According to today's therapy guidelines and current medical practice, the selection of a specific therapeutic intervention is mainly based on histology, grading, staging and hormonal status of the patient. Many aspects of a patient's specific type of tumor are currently not assessed—preventing true patient-tailored treatment. Another dilemma of today's breast cancer therapeutic regimens is the practice of significant overtreatment of patients; it is well known from past clinical trials that 70% of breast cancer patients with early stage disease do not need any treatment beyond surgery. While about 90% of all early stage cancer patients receive chemotherapy exposing them to significant treatment side effects, approximately 30% of patients with early stage breast cancer relapse. These types of problems are common to other forms of cancer as well. As such, there is a significant medical need to develop diagnostic assays that identify low risk patients for directed therapy. For patients with medium or high risk assessment, there is a need to pinpoint therapeutic regimens tailored to the specific cancer to assure optimal success. Breast Cancer metastasis and disease-free survival prediction is a challenge for all pathologists and treating oncologists. A test that can predict such features has a high medical and diagnostic need.


About 80% of all breast cancers diagnosed in the US and Europe are node-negative. What is needed are diagnostic tests and methods which can assess certain disease-related risks, e.g. risk of development of metastasis.


Technologies such as quantitative PCR, microarray analysis, and others allow the analysis of genome-wide expression patterns which provide new insight into gene regulation and are also a useful diagnostic tool because they allow the analysis of pathologic conditions at the level of gene expression. Quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR is currently the accepted standard for quantifying gene expression. It has the advantage of being a very sensitive method allowing the detection of even minute amounts of mRNA. Microarray analysis is fast becoming a new standard for quantifying gene expression.


Curing breast cancer patients is still a challenge for the treating oncologist as the diagnosis relies in most cases on clinical data such as etiopathological and pathological data like age, menopausal status, hormonal status, grading, and general constitution of the patient, and some molecular markers like Her2/neu, p53, and some others. Unfortunately, until recently, there was no test in the market for prognosis or therapy prediction that comes up with a more elaborated recommendation for the treating oncologist whether and how to treat patients. Two assay systems are currently available for prognosis, Genomic Health's OncotypeDX and Agendia's Mammaprint assay. In 2007, the company Agendia got FDA approval for their Mammaprint microarray assay that can predict with the help of 70 informative genes and a bundle of housekeeping genes the prognosis of breast cancer patients from fresh tissue (Glas A. M. et al., Converting a breast cancer microarray signature into a high-throughput diagnostic test, BMC Genomics. 2006 Oct. 30; 7:278). The Genomic Health assay works with formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded tumor tissue samples and uses 21 genes for the prognosis, presented as a risk score (Esteva FT et al. Prognostic role of a multigene reverse transcriptase-PCR assay in patients with node-negative breast cancer not receiving adjuvant systemic therapy. Clin Cancer Res 2005; 11: 3315-3319).


Both these assays use a high number of different markers to arrive at a result and require a high number of internal controls to ensure accurate results. What is needed is a simple and robust assay for prediction and/or prognosis of cancer.


OBJECTIVE OF THE INVENTION

It is an objective of the invention to provide a method for the prediction and/or prognosis of cancer relying on a limited number of markers.


It is a further objective of the invention to provide a kit for performing the method of the invention.


DEFINITIONS

The term “neoplastic disease”, “neoplastic region”, or “neoplastic tissue” refers to a tumorous tissue including carcinoma (e.g. carcinoma in situ, invasive carcinoma, metastasis carcinoma) and pre-malignant conditions, neomorphic changes independent of their histological origin, cancer, or cancerous disease.


The term “cancer” is not limited to any stage, grade, histomorphological feature, aggressivity, or malignancy of an affected tissue or cell aggregation. In particular, solid tumors, malignant lymphoma and all other types of cancerous tissue, malignancy and transformations associated therewith, lung cancer, ovarian cancer, cervix cancer, stomach cancer, pancreas cancer, prostate cancer, head and neck cancer, renal cell cancer, colon cancer or breast cancer are included. The terms “neoplastic lesion” or “neoplastic disease” or “neoplasm” or “cancer” are not limited to any tissue or cell type. They also include primary, secondary, or metastatic lesions of cancer patients, and also shall comprise lymph nodes affected by cancer cells or minimal residual disease cells either locally deposited or freely floating throughout the patient's body.


The term “predicting an outcome” of a disease, as used herein, is meant to include both a prediction of an outcome of a patient undergoing a given therapy and a prognosis of a patient who is not treated. The term “predicting an outcome” may, in particular, relate to the risk of a patient developing metastasis, local recurrence or death.


The term “prediction”, as used herein, relates to an individual assessment of the malignancy of a tumor, or to the expected survival rate (DFS, disease free survival) of a patient, if the tumor is treated with a given therapy. In contrast thereto, the term “prognosis” relates to an individual assessment of the malignancy of a tumor, or to the expected survival rate (DFS, disease free survival) of a patient, if the tumor remains untreated.


A “discriminant function” is a function of a set of variables used to classify an object or event. A discriminant function thus allows classification of a patient, sample or event into a category or a plurality of categories according to data or parameters available from said patient, sample or event. Such classification is a standard instrument of statistical analysis well known to the skilled person. E.g. a patient may be classified as “high risk” or “low risk”, “high probability of metastasis” or “low probability of metastasis”, “in need of treatment” or “not in need of treatment” according to data obtained from said patient, sample or event. Classification is not limited to “high vs. low”, but may be performed into a plurality categories, grading or the like. Classification shall also be understood in a wider sense as a discriminating score, where e.g. a higher score represents a higher likelihood of distant metastasis, e.g. the (overall) risk of a distant metastasis. Examples for discriminant functions which allow a classification include, but are not limited to functions defined by support vector machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), (naive) Bayes models, linear regression models, or piecewise defined functions such as, for example, in subgroup discovery, in decision trees, in logical analysis of data (LAD) and the like. In a wider sense, continuous score values of mathematical methods or algorithms, such as correlation coefficients, projections, support vector machine scores, other similarity-based methods, combinations of these and the like are examples for illustrative purpose.


An “outcome” within the meaning of the present invention is a defined condition attained in the course of the disease. This disease outcome may e.g. be a clinical condition such as “recurrence of disease”, “development of metastasis”, “development of nodal metastasis”, development of distant metastasis”, “survival”, “death”, “tumor remission rate”, a disease stage or grade or the like.


A “risk” is understood to be a probability of a subject or a patient to develop or arrive at a certain disease outcome. The term “risk” in the context of the present invention is not meant to carry any positive or negative connotation with regard to a patient's wellbeing but merely refers to a probability or likelihood of an occurrence or development of a given condition.


The term “clinical data” relates to the entirety of available data and information concerning the health status of a patient including, but not limited to, age, sex, weight, menopausal/hormonal status, etiopathology data, anamnesis data, data obtained by in vitro diagnostic methods such as blood or urine tests, data obtained by imaging methods, such as x-ray, computed tomography, MRI, PET, spect, ultrasound, electrophysiological data, genetic analysis, gene expression analysis, biopsy evaluation, intraoperative findings.


The term “etiopathology” relates to the course of a disease, that is its duration, its clinical symptoms, signs and parameters, and its outcome.


The term “anamnesis” relates to patient data gained by a physician or other healthcare professional by asking specific questions, either of the patient or of other people who know the person and can give suitable information (in this case, it is sometimes called heteroanamnesis), with the aim of obtaining information useful in formulating a diagnosis and providing medical care to the patient. This kind of information is called the symptoms, in contrast with clinical signs, which are ascertained by direct examination.


In the context of the present invention a “biological sample” is a sample which is derived from or has been in contact with a biological organism. Examples for biological samples are: cells, tissue, body fluids, lavage fluid, smear samples, biopsy specimens, blood, urine, saliva, sputum, plasma, serum, cell culture supernatant, and others.


A “biological molecule” within the meaning of the present invention is a molecule generated or produced by a biological organism or indirectly derived from a molecule generated by a biological organism, including, but not limited to, nucleic acids, protein, polypeptide, peptide, DNA, mRNA, cDNA, and so on.


A “probe” is a molecule or substance capable of specifically binding or interacting with a specific biological molecule. The term “primer”, “primer pair” or “probe”, shall have ordinary meaning of these terms which is known to the person skilled in the art of molecular biology. In a preferred embodiment of the invention “primer”, “primer pair” and “probes” refer to oligonucleotide or polynucleotide molecules with a sequence identical to, complementary too, homologues of, or homologous to regions of the target molecule or target sequence which is to be detected or quantified, such that the primer, primer pair or probe can specifically bind to the target molecule, e.g. target nucleic acid, RNA, DNA, cDNA, gene, transcript, peptide, polypeptide, or protein to be detected or quantified. As understood herein, a primer may in itself function as a probe. A “probe” as understood herein may also comprise e.g. a combination of primer pair and internal labeled probe, as is common in many commercially available qPCR methods.


A “gene” is a set of segments of nucleic acid that contains the information necessary to produce a functional RNA product. A “gene product” is a biological molecule produced through transcription or expression of a gene, e.g. an mRNA or the translated protein.


An “mRNA” is the transcribed product of a gene and shall have the ordinary meaning understood by a person skilled in the art. A “molecule derived from an mRNA” is a molecule which is chemically or enzymatically obtained from an mRNA template, such as cDNA.


The term “specifically binding” within the context of the present invention means a specific interaction between a probe and a biological molecule leading to a binding complex of probe and biological molecule, such as DNA-DNA binding, RNA-DNA binding, RNA-RNA binding, DNA-protein binding, protein-protein binding, RNA-protein binding, antibody-antigen binding, and so on.


The term “expression level” refers to a determined level of gene expression. This may be a determined level of gene expression compared to a reference gene (e.g. a housekeeping gene) or to a computed average expression value (e.g. in DNA chip analysis) or to another informative gene without the use of a reference sample. The expression level of a gene may be measured directly, e.g. by obtaining a signal wherein the signal strength is correlated to the amount of mRNA transcripts of that gene or it may be obtained indirectly at a protein level, e.g. by immunohistochemistry, CISH, ELISA or RIA methods. The expression level may also be obtained by way of a competitive reaction to a reference sample.


A “reference pattern of expression levels”, within the meaning of the invention shall be understood as being any pattern of expression levels that can be used for the comparison to another pattern of expression levels. In a preferred embodiment of the invention, a reference pattern of expression levels is, e.g., an average pattern of expression levels observed in a group of healthy or diseased individuals, serving as a reference group.


The term “complementary” or “sufficiently complementary” means a degree of complementarity which is—under given assay conditions—sufficient to allow the formation of a binding complex of a primer or probe to a target molecule. Assay conditions which have an influence of binding of probe to target include temperature, solution conditions, such as composition, pH, ion concentrations, etc. as is known to the skilled person.


The term “hybridization-based method”, as used herein, refers to methods imparting a process of combining complementary, single-stranded nucleic acids or nucleotide analogues into a single double stranded molecule. Nucleotides or nucleotide analogues will bind to their complement under normal conditions, so two perfectly complementary strands will bind to each other readily. In bioanalytics, very often labeled, single stranded probes are used in order to find complementary target sequences. If such sequences exist in the sample, the probes will hybridize to said sequences which can then be detected due to the label. Other hybridization based methods comprise microarray and/or biochip methods. Therein, probes are immobilized on a solid phase, which is then exposed to a sample. If complementary nucleic acids exist in the sample, these will hybridize to the probes and can thus be detected. Hybridization is dependent on target and probe (e.g. length of matching sequence, GC content) and hybridization conditions (temperature, solvent, pH, ion concentrations, presence of denaturing agents, etc.). A “hybridizing counterpart” of a nucleic acid is understood to mean a probe or capture sequence which under given assay conditions hybridizes to said nucleic acid and forms a binding complex with said nucleic acid. Normal conditions refers to temperature and solvent conditions and are understood to mean conditions under which a probe can hybridize to allelic variants of a nucleic acid but does not unspecifically bind to unrelated genes. These conditions are known to the skilled person and are e.g. described in “Molecular Cloning. A laboratory manual”, Cold Spring Harbour Laboratory Press, 2. Aufl., 1989. Normal conditions would be e.g. hybridization at 6× Sodium Chloride/sodium citrate buffer (SSC) at about 45° C., followed by washing or rinsing with 2×SSC at about 50° C., or e.g. conditions used in standard PCR protocols, such as annealing temperature of 40 to 60° C. in standard PCR reaction mix or buffer.


The term “array” refers to an arrangement of addressable locations on a device, e.g. a chip device. The number of locations can range from several to at least hundreds or thousands. Each location represents an independent reaction site. Arrays include, but are not limited to nucleic acid arrays, protein arrays and antibody-arrays. A “nucleic acid array” refers to an array containing nucleic acid probes, such as oligonucleotides, polynucleotides or larger portions of genes. The nucleic acid on the array is preferably single stranded. A “microarray” refers to a biochip or biological chip, i.e. an array of regions having a density of discrete regions with immobilized probes of at least about 100/cm2.


A “PCR-based method” refers to methods comprising a polymerase chain reaction PCR. This is a method of exponentially amplifying nucleic acids, e.g. DNA or RNA by enzymatic replication in vitro using one, two or more primers. For RNA amplification, a reverse transcription may be used as a first step. PCR-based methods comprise kinetic or quantitative PCR (qPCR) which is particularly suited for the analysis of expression levels,).


The term “determining a protein level” refers to any method suitable for quantifying the amount, amount relative to a standard or concentration of a given protein in a sample. Commonly used methods to determine the amount of a given protein are e.g. immunohistochemistry, CISH, ELISA or RIA methods. etc.


The term “reacting” a probe with a biological molecule to form a binding complex herein means bringing probe and biologically molecule into contact, for example, in liquid solution, for a time period and under conditions sufficient to form a binding complex.


The term “label” within the context of the present invention refers to any means which can yield or generate or lead to a detectable signal when a probe specifically binds a biological molecule to form a binding complex. This can be a label in the traditional sense, such as enzymatic label, fluorophore, chromophore, dye, radioactive label, luminescent label, gold label, and others. In a more general sense the term “label” herein is meant to encompass any means capable of detecting a binding complex and yielding a detectable signal, which can be detected, e.g. by sensors with optical detection, electrical detection, chemical detection, gravimetric detection (i.e. detecting a change in mass), and others. Further examples for labels specifically include labels commonly used in qPCR methods, such as the commonly used dyes FAM, VIC, TET, HEX, JOE, Texas Red, Yakima Yellow, quenchers like TAMRA, minor groove binder, dark quencher, and others, or probe indirect staining of PCR products by for example SYBR Green. Readout can be performed on hybridization platforms, like Affymetrix, Agilent, Illumina, Planar Wave Guides, Luminex, microarray devices with optical, magnetic, electrochemical, gravimetric detection systems, and others. A label can be directly attached to a probe or indirectly bound to a probe, e.g. by secondary antibody, by biotin-streptavidin interaction or the like.


The term “combined detectable signal” within the meaning of the present invention means a signal, which results, when at least two different biological molecules form a binding complex with their respective probes and one common label yields a detectable signal for either binding event.


A “decision tree” is a is a decision support tool that uses a graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. A decision tree is used to identify the strategy most likely to reach a goal. Another use of trees is as a descriptive means for calculating conditional probabilities.


In data mining and machine learning, a decision tree is a predictive model; that is, a mapping from observations about an item to conclusions about its target value. More descriptive names for such tree models are classification tree (discrete outcome) or regression tree (continuous outcome). In these tree structures, leaves represent classifications (e.g. “high risk”/“low risk”, “suitable for treatment A”/“not suitable for treatment A” and the like), while branches represent conjunctions of features (e.g. features such as “Gene X is strongly expressed compared to a control” vs., “Gene X is weakly expressed compared to a control”) that lead to those classifications.


A “fuzzy” decision tree does not rely on yes/no decisions, but rather on numerical values (corresponding e.g. to gene expression values of predictive genes), which then correspond to the likelihood of a certain outcome.


A “motive” is a group of biologically related genes. This biological relation may e.g. be functional (e.g. genes related to the same purpose, such as proliferation, immune response, cell motility, cell death, etc.), the biological relation may also e.g. be a co-regulation of gene expression (e.g. genes regulated by the same or similar transcription factors, promoters or other regulative elements).


SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

The invention comprises the method as defined in the following numbered paragraphs:

  • 1. Method for predicting an outcome of cancer in a patient suffering from or suspected of suffering from neoplastic disease, said method comprising:
    • (a) determining in a biological sample from said patient an expression level of a plurality of genes selected from the group consisting of ACTG1, CA12, CALM2, CCND1, CHPT1, CLEC2B, CTSB, CXCL13, DCN, DHRS2, EIF4B, ERBB2, ESR1, FBXO28, GABRP, GAPDH, H2AFZ, IGFBP3, IGHG1, IGKC, KCTD3, KIAA0101, KRT17, MLPH, MMP1, NAT1, NEK2, NR2F2, OAZ1, PCNA, PDLIM5, PGR, PPIA, PRC1, RACGAP1, RPL37A, SOX4, TOP2A, UBE2C and VEGF;
    • (b) based on the expression level of the plurality of genes determined in step (a) determining a risk score for each gene; and
    • (c) mathematically combining said risk scores to yield a combined score, wherein said combined score is indicative of a prognosis of said patient.


The mathematical combination comprises the use of a discriminant function, e.g. an algorithm, to determine the combined score. Such algorithms may comprise the use of averages, weighted averages, sums, differences, products and/or linear and nonlinear functions to arrive at the combined score. In particular the algorithm may comprise one of the algorithms P1c, P2e, P2e_c, P2e_Mz10, P7a, P7b, P1c, P2e_Mz10_b, and P2e_lin, described below.

  • 2. Method of numbered paragraph 1, wherein one, two or more thresholds are determined for said combined score and discriminated into high and low risk, high, intermediate and low risk, or more risk groups by applying the threshold on the combined score.
  • 3. Method of numbered paragraph 1 or 2, wherein all expression levels in said group of expression levels are determined.
  • 4. Method of any one of the preceding numbered paragraphs wherein said prognosis is the determination of the risk of recurrence of cancer in said patient within 5 to 10 years or the risk of developing distant metastasis within 5 to 10 years, or the prediction of death after recurrence within 5 to 10 years after surgical removal of the tumor.
  • 5. Method of any one of the preceding numbered paragraphs, wherein said prognosis is a classification of said patient into one of three distinct classes, said classes corresponding to a “high risk” class, an “intermediate risk” class and a “low risk” class.
  • 6. Method of any one of the preceding numbered paragraphs, wherein said cancer is breast cancer.
  • 7. Method of any one of the preceding numbered paragraphs, wherein said determination of expression levels is in a formalin-fixed paraffin embedded sample or in a fresh-frozen sample.
  • 8. Method of any one of the preceding numbered paragraphs, comprising the additional steps of:
    • (d) classifying said sample into one of at least two clinical categories according to clinical data obtained from said patient and/or from said sample, wherein each category is assigned to at least one of said genes of step (a); and
    • (e) determining for each clinical category a risk score;
    • wherein said combined score is obtained by mathematically combining said risk scores of each patient.
  • 9. Method of numbered paragraph 8, wherein said clinical data comprises at least one gene expression level.
  • 10. Method of numbered paragraph 9, wherein said gene expression level is a gene expression level of at least one of the genes of step (a).
  • 11. Method of any of numbered paragraphs 8 to 10, wherein step (d) comprises applying a decision tree.


We identified a unique panel of genes combined into an algorithm for the here presented new prognostic test. The algorithm makes use of kinetic RT-PCR data from breast cancer patients and was trained on follow-up data for events like distant metastasis, local recurrence or death and data for non-events or long disease-free survival (healthy at last contact when seeing the treating physician).


The genes were selected of the following list of genes: ACTG1, CA12, CALM2, CCND1, CHPT1, CLEC2B, CTSB, CXCL13, DCN, DHRS2, EIF4B, ERBB2, ESR1, FBXO28, GABRP, GAPDH, H2AFZ, IGFBP3, IGHG1, IGKC, KCTD3, KIAA0101, KRT17, MLPH, MMP1, NAT1, NEK2, NR2F2, OAZ1, PCNA, PDLIM5, PGR, PPIA, PRC1, RACGAP1, RPL37A, SOX4, TOP2A, UBE2C and VEGF.


Different prognosis algorithms were built using these genes by selecting appropriate subsets of genes and combining their measurement values by mathematical functions. The function value is a real-valued risk score indicating the likelihoods of clinical outcomes; it can further be discriminated into two, three or more classes indicating patients to have low, intermediate or high risk. We also calculated thresholds for discrimination.









TABLE 1





List of Genes used in the method of the invention:







List of Genes of algorithm P2e_Mz10 and P2e_lin:










Gene
Name
Process
Accession Number





ESR1
Estrogen Receptor
Hormone Receptor
NM_000125


PGR
Progesteron Receptor
Hormone Receptor
NM_000926


MLPH
Melanophilin
Hormone Receptor
NM_001042467


TOP2A
Topoisomerase II alpha
Proliferation
NM_001067


RACGAP1
Rac GTPase activating Protein 1
Proliferation
NM_001126103


CHPT1
Choline Phosphotransferase 1
Proliferation
NM_020244


MMP1
Matrixmetallopeptidase
Invasion
NM_002421


IGKC
Immunoglobulin kappa constant
Immune System
NG_000834


CXCL13
Chemokine (C—X—C motif) Ligand 13
Immune System
NM_006419


CALM2
Calmodulin 2
Reference
NM_001743




Genes


PPIA
Peptidylprolyl Isomerase A
Reference
NM_021130




Genes


PAEP
Progestagen-associated Endometrial Protein
DNA Control
NM_001018049










List of Genes of further algorithms:























Accession


Gene
Algorithms






Number






P1c
P2e
P2e_c
P2e_Mz10
P7a
P7b
P7c



CorrDiff.9


P2e_Mz10_b






P2e_lin


CALM2







NM_001743


CHPT1

x
x
x


x
NM_020244


CLEC2B







NM_005127


CXCL13
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
NM_006419


DHRS2







NM_005794


ERBB2







NM_001005862


ESR1
x
x
x
x



NM_000125


FHL1

x
x




NM_001449


GAPDH







NM_002046


IGHG1







NG_001019


IGKC
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
NG_000834


KCTD3







NM_016121


MLPH
x
x
x
x
x


NM_001042467


MMP1
x
x
x
x

x
x
NM_002421


PGR
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
NM_000926


PPIA







NM_021130


RACGAP1

x
x
x
x
x
x
NM_001126103


RPL37A







NM_000998


SOX4

x


x


NM_003107


TOP2A
x
x
x
x



NM_001067


UBE2C
x



x
x
x
NM_007019


VEGF

x
x



x
NM_001025366


# genes of
8
12
11
9
7
6
8


interest









Example: Algorithm P2e_Mz10 works as follows. Replicate measurements are summarized by averaging. Quality control is done by estimating the total RNA and DNA amounts. Variations in RNA amount are compensated by subtracting measurement values of housekeeper genes to yield so called delta CT values (difference in cycle threshold in quantitative PCR methods).


Delta CT values are bounded to gene-dependent ranges to reduce the effect of measurement outliers. Biologically related genes were summarized into motives: ESR1, PGR and MLPH into motive “estrogen receptor”, TOP2A and RACGAP1 into motive “proliferation” and IGKC and CXCL13 into motive “immune system”. According to the RNA-based estrogen receptor motive and the progesteron receptor status gene cases were classified into three subtypes ER−, ER+/PR− and ER+/PR+ by a decision tree, partially fuzzy. For each tree node the risk score is estimated by a linear combination of selected genes and motives: immune system, proliferation, MMP1 and PGR for the ER− leaf, immune system, proliferation, MMP1 and PGR for the ER+/PR− leaf, and immune system, proliferation, MMP1 and CHPT1 for the ER+/PR+ leaf. Risk scores of leaves are balanced by mathematical transformation to yield a combined score characterizing all patients. Patients are discriminated into high and low risk by applying a threshold on the combined score. The threshold was chosen to achieve a sensitivity of about 90% and a specificity as high as possible on the prediction of distant metastases.


Technically, the test will rely on two core technologies: 1.) Isolation of total RNA from fresh or fixed tumor tissue and 2.) Kinetic RT-PCR of the isolated nucleic acids. Both technologies are available at SMS-DS and are currently developed for the market as a part of the Phoenix program. RNA isolation will employ the same silica-coated magnetic particles already planned for the first release of Phoenix products. The assay results will be linked together by a software algorithm computing the likely risk of getting metastasis as low, (intermediate) or high.


Most algorithms rely on many genes, to be measured by chip technology (>70) or PCR-based (>15), and a complicated normalization of data (hundreds of housekeeping genes on chips) by not a less complicated algorithm that combines all data to a final score or risk prediction. Mammaprint™ (70 genes and hundreds of normalization genes; OncotypeDX™ 16 genes and 5 normalization genes). We used a FFPE (formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded) tumor sample collection of node-negative breast cancer patients with long-term follow-up data to prepare RNA and measure the amount of RNA of several breast cancer informative genes by quantitative RT-PCR. We identified algorithms that use fewer genes (8 or 9 genes of interest and only 1 or two reference or housekeeping genes).


Denmark1 cohort: Death after recurrence within 5 years endpoint.

    • Transbig cohort: Distant metastasis within 10 years endpoint


Area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves (receiver operator curves) calculations for different algorithms at the working point (threshold between low and high risk) in the respective verification cohorts (Denmark1 or Transbig):












Denmark1 cohort: Death after recurrence within 5 years endpoint:










Algorithm
AUC of ROC curve














P1c
0.77



P2e
0.61



P2e_c
0.81



P2e_Mz10
0.76



P2e_Mz10_b
0.74



P2e_lin
0.79



P7a
0.77



P7b
0.81



P7c
0.81




















Transbig cohort: Distant metastasis within 10 years endpoint










Algorithm
AUC of ROC curve














P1c
0.72



P2e
0.71



P2e_c
0.69



P2e_Mz10
0.71



P2e_Mz10_b
0.69



P2e_lin
0.73



P7a
0.71



P7b
0.72



P7c
0.73















EXAMPLES

Gene expression can be determined by a variety of methods, such as quantitative PCR, Microarray-based technologies and others.


In a representative example, quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR was performed according to the following protocol:


Primer/Probe Mix:

50 μl 100 μM Stock Solution Forward Primer


50 μl 100 μM Stock Solution Reverse Primer


25 μl 100 μM Stock Solution Taq Man Probe bring to 1000 μl with water


10 μl Primer/Probe Mix (1:10) are lyophilized, 2.5 h RT


RT-PCR Assay Set-Up for 1 well:


3.1 μl Water


5.2 μl RT qPCR MasterMix (Invitrogen) with ROX dye


0.5 μl MgSO4 (to 5.5 mM final concentration)


1 μl Primer/Probe Mix dried


0.2 μl RT/Taq Mx (−RT: 0.08 μL Taq)


1 μl RNA (1:2)


Thermal Profile:














RT step











50° C.
30
Min*



 8° C.
ca. 20
Min*



95° C.
2
Min







PCR cycles (repeated for 40 cycles)











95° C.
15
Sec.



60° C.
30
Sec.










Gene expression can be determined by known quantitative PCR methods and devices, such as TagMan, Lightcycler and the like. It can then be expressed e.g. as cycle threshold value (CT value).


Description of a MATLAB™ file to calculate from raw Ct value the risk prediction of a patient:


The following is a Matlab script containing examples of some of the algorithms used in the invention (Matlab R2007b, Version 7.5.0.342, © by The MathWorks Inc.). User-defined comments are contained in lines preceded by the “%” symbol. These comments are overread by the program and are for the purpose iof informing the user/reader of the script only. Command lines are not preceded by the “%” symbol:














function risk = predict(e, type)¶


% input “e”: gene expression values of patients. Variable “e” is of type¶


%  struct, each field is a numeric vector of expression values of the¶


%  patients. The field name corresponds to the gene name. Expression¶


%  values are pre-processed delta-CT values.¶


% input “type”: name of the algorithm (string)¶


% output risk: vector of risk scores for the patients. The higher the


score¶


%  the higher the estimated probability for a metastasis or desease-¶


%  related death to occur within 5 or 10 years after surgery. Negative¶


%  risk scores are called “low risk”, positive risk score are called


“high¶


%  risk”.¶


switch type¶









case ‘P1c’¶









% adjust values for platform¶



CXCL13 = (e.CXCL13 −11.752821) / 1.019727 + 8.779238;¶



ESR1 = (e.ESR1 −15.626214) / 1.178223 + 10.500000;¶



IGKC = (e.IGKC −11.752725) / 1.731738 + 11.569842;¶



MLPH = (e.MLPH −14.185453) / 2.039551 + 11.000000;¶



MMP1 = (e.MMP1 − 9.484186) / 0.987988 + 6.853865;¶



PGR = (e.PGR −13.350160) / 0.953809 + 6.000000;¶



TOP2A = (e.TOP2A −13.027047) / 1.300098 + 9.174689;¶



UBE2C = (e.UBE2C −14.056418) / 1.160254 + 9.853476;¶

















% prediction of subtype¶



srNoise = 0.5;¶



info.srStatusConti = 2 * logit((ESR1−10.5)/srNoise) +







logit((PGR−6)/srNoise) + logit((MLPH−11)/srNoise);¶









info.srStatus = (info.srStatusConti >= 2) + 0;¶



prNoise = 1;¶



info.prStatus = logit((PGR−6)/prNoise);¶



info.wgt0 = 1 − info.srStatus;¶



info.wgt1 = info.srStatus .* (1−info.prStatus);¶



info.wgt2 = info.srStatus .* info.prStatus;¶

















% risks of subtypes¶



info.risk0 = (logit((CXCL13−10.194199)*−0.307769) + ...¶









logit((IGKC−12.314798)*−0.382648) + ...¶



logit((MLPH−10.842093)*−0.218234) + ...¶



logit((MMP1−8.201517)*0.157167) + ... ¶



logit((ESR1−9.031409)*−0.285311) −2.623903) *







2.806133;¶









info.risk1 = (logit((TOP2A−8.820398)*0.697681) + ...¶









logit((UBE2C−9.784955)*1.123699) + ...¶



logit((PGR−5.387180)*−0.328050) −1.616721) *







2.474979;¶









info.risk2 = (logit((CXCL13−4.989277)*−0.142064) + ...¶









logit((IGKC−8.854017)*−0.232467) + ...¶



logit((MMP1−9.971173)*0.127538) −1.321320) *







3.267279;¶


 ¶









% final risk¶



risk = info.risk0 .* info.wgt0 + info.risk1 .* info.wgt1 +







info.risk2 .* info.wgt2 + 0.8;¶


 ¶









case ‘P2e’¶









% adjust values for platform¶



ESR1 = (e.ESR1 −15.652953) / 1.163477 + 10.500000;¶



MLPH = (e.MLPH −14.185453) / 2.037305 + 11.000000;¶



PGR = (e.PGR −13.350160) / 0.957324 + 6.000000;¶

















% prediction of subtype¶



srNoise = 0.5;¶



info.srStatusConti = 2 * logit((ESR1−10.5)/srNoise) +







logit((PGR−6)/srNoise) + logit((MLPH−11)/srNoise);¶









info.srStatus = (info.srStatusConti >= 2) + 0;¶



prNoise = 1;¶



info.prStatus = logit((PGR−6)/prNoise);¶



info.wgt0 = 1 − info.srStatus;¶



info.wgt1 = info.srStatus .* (1−info.prStatus);¶



info.wgt2 = info.srStatus .* info.prStatus;¶

















% motives¶



immune = e.IGKC + e.CXCL13;¶



prolif = 1.5 * e.RACGAP1 + e.TOP2A;¶







% risks of subtypes¶



info.risk0 = ...¶









+−0.0649147*immune ...¶



+ 0.2972054*e.FHL1 ...¶



+ 0.0619860*prolif ...¶



+ 0.0283435*e.MMP1 ...¶



+ 0.0596162*e.VEGF ...¶



+−0.0403737*e.MLPH ...¶



+−4.1421322;¶









info.risk1 = ...¶









+−0.0329128*e.FHL1 ...¶



+ 0.1052475*prolif ...¶



+ 0.0293242*e.MMP1 ...¶



+−0.1035659*e.PGR ...¶



+ 0.0738236*e.SOX4 ...¶



+−3.1319335;¶









info.risk2 = ...¶









+−0.0363946*immune ...¶



+ 0.0717352*prolif ...¶



+−0.1373369*e.CHPT1 ...¶



+ 0.0840428*e.SOX4 ...¶



+ 0.0157587*e.MMP1 ...¶



+−0.9378916;¶

















% final risk¶



risk = info.risk0 .* info.wgt0 + info.risk1 .* info.wgt1 +







info.risk2 .* info.wgt2 + 0.6;¶













case ‘P2e_c’¶









% adjust values for platform¶



ESR1 = (e.ESR1 −15.652953) / 1.163477 + 10.500000;¶



MLPH = (e.MLPH −14.185453) / 2.037305 + 11.000000;¶



PGR = (e.PGR −13.350160) / 0.957324 + 6.000000;¶







 ¶









% prediction of subtype¶



srNoise = 0.5;¶



info.srStatusConti = 2 * logit((ESR1−10.5)/srNoise) +







logit((PGR−6)/srNoise) + logit((MLPH−11)/srNoise);¶









info.srStatus = (info.srStatusConti >= 2) + 0;¶



prNoise = 1;¶



info.prStatus = logit((PGR−6)/prNoise);¶



info.wgt0 = 1 − info.srStatus;¶



info.wgt1 = info.srStatus .* (1−info.prStatus);¶



info.wgt2 = info.srStatus .* info.prStatus;¶

















% motives¶



immune = 0.5 * e.IGKC + 0.5 * e.CXCL13;¶



prolif = 0.6 * e.RACGAP1 + 0.4 * e.TOP2A;¶







% risks of subtypes¶



info.risk0 = ...¶









+−0.1283655*immune ...¶



+ 0.3106840*e.FHL1 ...¶



+ 0.0319581*e.MMP1 ...¶



+ 0.2304728*prolif ...¶



+ 0.0711659*e.VEGF ...¶



+ 0.0123868*e.ESR1 ...¶



+−6.1644527 + 1;¶









info.risk1 = ...¶









+ 0.3018777*prolif ...¶



+−0.0992731*e.PGR ...¶



+ 0.0351513*e.MMP1 ...¶



+−0.0302850*e.FHL1 ...¶



+−2.5403380;¶









info.risk2 = ...¶









+ 0.1989859*prolif ...¶



+−0.1252159*e.CHPT1 ...¶



+−0.0808729*immune ...¶



+ 0.0227976*e.MMP1 ...¶



+ 0.0433237;¶

















% final risk¶



risk = info.risk0 .* info.wgt0 + info.risk1 .* info.wgt1 +







info.risk2 .* info.wgt2 + 0.3;¶


 ¶









case ‘P2e_Mz10’¶









% adjust values for platform¶



ESR1 = (e.ESR1 −15.652953) / 1.163477 + 10.500000;¶



MLPH = (e.MLPH −14.185453) / 2.037305 + 11.000000;¶



PGR = (e.PGR −13.350160) / 0.957324 + 6.000000;¶

















% prediction of subtype¶



srNoise = 0.5;¶



info.srStatusConti = 2 * logit((ESR1−11)/srNoise) +







logit((PGR−6)/srNoise) + logit((MLPH−11)/srNoise);¶









info.srStatus = (info.srStatusConti >= 2) + 0;¶



prNoise = 1;¶



info.prStatus = logit((PGR−6)/prNoise);¶



info.wgt0 = 1 − info.srStatus;¶



info.wgt1 = info.srStatus .* (1−info.prStatus);¶



info.wgt2 = info.srStatus .* info.prStatus;¶







% motives¶



immune = 0.5 * e.IGKC + 0.5 * e.CXCL13;¶



prolif = 0.6 * e.RACGAP1 + 0.4 * e.TOP2A;¶

















% risks of subtypes¶



info.risk0 = +−0.1695553*immune + 0.2442442*prolif +







0.0576508*e.MMP1 +−0.0329610*e.PGR +−1.2666276;¶









info.risk1 = +−0.1014611*immune + 0.1520673*prolif +







0.0127294*e.MMP1 +−0.0724982*e.PGR + 0.0307697;¶









info.risk2 = +−0.1209503*immune + 0.0491344*prolif +







0.0749897*e.MMP1 +−0.0602048*e.CHPT1 + 0.8781799;¶













% final risk¶



risk = info.risk0 .* info.wgt0 + info.risk1 .* info.wgt1 +







info.risk2 .* info.wgt2 + 0.25;¶


 ¶









case ‘P2e_Mz10_b’¶









% adjust values for platform¶



ESR1 = (e.ESR1 −15.652953) / 1.163477 + 10.500000;¶



MLPH = (e.MLPH −14.185453) / 2.037305 + 11.000000;¶



PGR = (e.PGR −13.350160) / 0.957324 + 6.000000;¶







 ¶









% prediction of subtype¶



srNoise = 0.5;¶



info.srStatusConti = 2 * logit((ESR1−11)/srNoise) +







logit((PGR−6)/srNoise) + logit((MLPH−11)/srNoise);¶









info.srStatus = (info.srStatusConti >= 2) + 0;¶



prNoise = 1;¶



info.prStatus = logit((PGR−6)/prNoise);¶



info.wgt0 = 1 − info.srStatus;¶



info.wgt1 = info.srStatus .* (1−info.prStatus);¶



info.wgt2 = info.srStatus .* info.prStatus;¶







% motives¶



immune = 0.5 * e.IGKC + 0.5 * e.CXCL13;¶



prolif = 0.6 * e.RACGAP1 + 0.4 * e.TOP2A;¶

















% risks of subtypes¶



info.risk0 = +−0.1310102*immune + 0.1845093*prolif +







0.1511828*e.CHPT1 +−0.1024023*e.PGR +−2.0607350;¶









info.risk1 = +−0.0951339*immune + 0.1271194*prolif +−







0.1865775*e.CHPT1 +−0.0365784*e.PGR + 2.9353027;¶









info.risk2 = +−0.1209503*immune + 0.0491344*prolif +−







0.0602048*e.CHPT1 + 0.0749897*e.MMP1 + 0.8781799;¶













% final risk¶



risk = info.risk0 .* info.wgt0 + info.risk1 .* info.wgt1 +







info.risk2 .* info.wgt2 + 0.3;¶


 ¶









case ‘P2e_lin’   ¶









% motives¶



estrogen = 0.5 * e.ESR1 + 0.3 * e.PGR + 0.2 * e.MLPH;¶



immune = 0.5 * e.IGKC + 0.5 * e.CXCL13;¶



prolif = 0.6 * e.RACGAP1 + 0.4 * e.TOP2A;¶







 ¶









% final risk¶



risk = +−0.0733386*estrogen ...¶









+−0.1346660*immune ...¶



+ 0.1468378*prolif ...¶



+ 0.0397999*e.MMP1 ...¶



+−0.0151972*e.CHPT1 ...¶



+ 0.6615265 ...¶



+ 0.25;¶







 ¶









case ‘P7a’ ¶









% motives¶



prolif = 0.6 * e.RACGAP1 + 0.4 * e.UBE2C;¶



immune = 0.5 * e.IGKC + 0.5 * e.CXCL13;¶



estrogen = 0.5 * e.MLPH + 0.5 * e.PGR;¶

















% final risk¶



risk = +0.2944 * prolif ... ¶









−0.2511 * immune ... ¶



−0.2271 * estrogen ...¶



+0.3865 * e.SOX4 ... ¶



−3.3;¶



















case ‘P7b’ ¶









% motives¶



prolif = 0.6 * e.RACGAP1 + 0.4 * e.UBE2C;¶



immune = 0.5 * e.IGKC + 0.5 * e.CXCL13;¶

















% final risk¶



risk = +0.4127 * prolif ...¶









−0.1921 * immune ...¶



−0.1159 * e.PGR ... ¶



+0.0876 * e.MMP1 ...¶



−1.95;¶



















case ‘P7c’ ¶









% motives¶



prolif = 0.6 * e.RACGAP1 + 0.4 * e.UBE2C;¶



immune = 0.5 * e.IGKC + 0.5 * e.CXCL13;¶

















% final risk¶



risk = +0.4084 * prolif ... ¶









−0.1891 * immune ... ¶



−0.1017 * e.PGR ... ¶



+0.0775 * e.MMP1 ... ¶



+0.0693 * e.VEGF ... ¶



−0.0668 * e.CHPT1 ...¶



−1.95;¶

















otherwise¶









error(’unknown algorithm’);¶







end¶


end¶


 ¶


 ¶


 ¶


function y = logit(x)¶


y = 1./(1 + exp(−x)); ¶


end¶


 ¶


 ¶


 ¶


% end of file¶









The following is a Matlab script containing a further example of an algorithm used in the invention (Matlab R2007b, Version 7.5.0.342, © by The MathWorks Inc.). User-defined comments are contained in lines preceded by the “%” symbol. These comments are overread by the program and are for the purpose iof informing the user/reader of the script only. Command lines are not preceded by the “%” symbol:














function risk = predict(e)¶


% input “e”: gene expression values of patients. Variable “e” is of type¶


%  struct, each field is a numeric vector of expression values of the¶


%  patients. The field name corresponds to the gene name. Expression¶


%  values are pre-processed delta-CT values.¶


% output risk: vector of risk scores for the patients. The higher the


score¶


%  the higher the estimated probability for a metastasis or desease-¶


%  related death to occur within 5 or 10 years after surgery. Negative¶


%  risk scores are called “low risk”, positive risk score are called


“high¶


%  risk”.¶





expr = [20 * ones(size(e.CXCL13)), ...  % Housekeeper HKM¶


   e.CXCL13, e.ESR1, e.IGKC, e.MLPH, e.MMP1, e.PGR,


e.TOP2A, e.UBE2C];¶





m = [ ...¶


   20, 20; ...¶


   11.817, 11.1456; ...¶


   17.1194, 16.7523; ...¶


   11.6005, 10.046; ...¶


   16.6452, 16.1309; ...¶


   9.54657, 10.9477; ...¶


   13.181, 12.0208; ...¶


   12.9811, 13.811; ...¶


   14.1037, 14.708];¶


risk = corr(expr′, m(:, 2)) − corr(expr′, m(:, 1)) + 0.08;¶


end¶











% end of file¶









The following is a Matlab script file which contains an implementation of the prognosis algorithm including the whole data pre-processing of raw CT values (Matlab R2007b, Version 7.5.0.342, © by The MathWorks Inc. The preprocessed delta CT values may be directly used in the above described algorithms:


It is known that the expression of various genes correlate strongly. Therefore single or multiple genes used in the method of the invention may be replaced by other correlating genes. The following tables give examples of correlating genes for each gene used in the above described methods, which may be used to replace single or multiple gene. The top line in each of the following tables contains the primary gene of interest, in the lines below are listed correlated genes, which may be used to replace the primary gene of interest in the above described methods.















RPL37A
GAPDH
ACTG1
CALM2







RPL38
ENO1
EEF1A1
RPL41



PGK1
RPS3A
EEF1A1


EEF1D
HSPA8
RPL37A
RPS10


RPLP2
ACTB
RPLP0
RPS27


RPS10
HSPCB
RPS23
RPL37A


XTP2
STIP1
RPS28
RPL39


FKSG49
ZNF207
ACTB
ACTB


RPS11
PSMC3
RPL23A
RPLP0


ENO1
MSH6
RPL7
RPS3A


INHBC
TKT
RPL39
RPS2 /// LOC91561 ///





LOC148430 ///





LOC286444 ///





LOC400963 /// LOC440589


RPL14
PSAP
LOC389223 ///
PPIA




LOC440595


ATP6V0E
RAN
TPT1
RPL3


OPHN1
GDI2
RPL41
RPS18


JTV1
WDR1
HUWE1
RPS2


E2F4
ILF2
RPL3
RPS12


ATP6V1D
ABCF2
RPL13A
ACTG1


EIF5B
USP4
RPS4X
RPL23A


CTAGE1
HNRPC
RPS18
RPL13A


NUCKS
MAPRE1
RPS10
MUC8


TRA1
C7orf28A ///
RPS17
RPLP1



C7orf28B






















OAZ1
PPIA
CLEC2B
CXCL13







C19orf10
K-ALPHA-1
LY96
TRBV19 /// TRBC1


MED12
ACTG1
WASPIP
CD2


AP2S1
ACTB
DCN
CD52


LOC222070
RPS2
SERPING1
TNFRSF7


CTGLF1 ///
RPL23A
C1S
CD3D


LOC399753 ///


FLJ00312 ///


CTGLF2


RAB1A
RPL39
SERPINF1
LCK


ARPC4
RPL37A
PTGER4
MS4A1


ARFRP1
GAPDH
CUGBP2
CD48


NUP214
CHCHD2
KCTD12
SELL


POLR2E
RPS10
EVI2A
IGHM


C2orf25
RPL13A
HLA-E
POU2AF1


UBE2D3
TUBA6
AXL
TRBV21-1 /// TRBV19 ///





TRBV5-4 /// TRBV3-1 ///





TRBC1


ATP6V0E
RPLP0
C1R
TRAC


XKR8
RPL30
CFH ///
CCL5




CFHL1


LOC401210
GNAS
PTPRC
NKG7


PARVA
DDX3X
SART2
CD3Z



H3F3A
DAB2
IL2RG


PPP2R5D
H3F3A ///
CLIC2
CD38



LOC440926


ZNF337
RPS18
PRRX1
CD19


TMEM4
RPL41
IFI16
BANK1

























DHRS2
ERBB2
H2AFZ
IGHG1









CXorf40A ///
PERLD1
MAD2L1
APOL5



CXorf40B



DEGS1
STARD3
CDC2
RARB



ALDH3B2
GRB7
CCNB1
CLDN18



SLC9A3R1
CRK7
CCNB2
HBZ



INPP4B
PPARBP
CENPA
MUC3A



TP53AP1
CASC3
KPNA2




EMP2
PSMD3
ASPM
APOC4



CACNG4
PNMT
CDCA8
ACRV1



SULT2B1
THRAP4
KIF11
FSHR



DEK
WIRE
CCNA2
SPTA1



DHCR24
LOC339287
ECT2
EPC1



RBM34
PCGF2
PTTG1
MYO15A



SLC38A1
GSDML
BUB1
GP1BB



AGPS
PIP5K2B
MELK
OR2B2



CXorf40B
RPL19
RRM2
ENO1



MSX2
PPP1R10
TPX2
TCF21



STC2
LASP1
DLG7
GYPB



C14orf10
SPDEF
MLF1IP
WNT6



CREG1
PSMB3
STK6
ASH1L



JMJD2B
GPC1
BM039
RPL37A























IGKC
KCTD3
MLPH
MMP1








TSNAX
FOXA1
SLC16A3


IGL@ /// IGLC1 ///
C1orf22
SPDEF
KIAA1199


IGLC2 /// IGLV3-25 ///


IGLV2-14


IGLC2
GATA3
GATA3
CTSB


IGKC /// IGKV1-5
LGALS8
AGR2
SLAMF8


LOC391427
FOXA1
CA12
CORO1C


IGL@ /// IGLC1 /// IGLC2 ///
MCP
ESR1
PLAU


IGLV3-25 /// IGLV2-14 ///


IGLJ3


IGKV1D-13
SSA2
KIAA0882
AQP9


IGLV2-14
IL6ST
SCNNIA
PDGFD


LOC339562
GGPS1
XBP1
RGS5


IGKV1-5
CCNG2
RHOB
PLAUR


IGLJ3
DHX29
FBP1
CHST11


LOC91353
ZNF281
GALNT7
SOD2


IGHA1 /// IGHD /// IGHG1 ///
FLJ20273
MYO5C
TREM1


IGHM /// LOC390714


LOC91316
KIAA0882
TFF3
HN1


IGHM
C1orf25
CELSR1
MRPS14


IGHA1 /// IGHG1 ///
ABAT
LOC400451
ACTR3


IGHG3 /// LOC390714


IGH@ /// IGHG1 ///
HNRPH2
SLC44A4
RIPK2


IGHG2 /// IGHG3 /// IGHM


IGH@ /// IGHA1 ///
MRPS14
MUC1
ECHDC2


IGHA2 /// IGHD /// IGHG1 ///


IGHG2 /// IGHG3 ///


IGHM /// MGC27165 ///


LOC390714


IGJ
KIAA0040
KIAA1324
GBP1


POU2AF1
ERBB2IP
KRT18
RRM2
























PGR
SOX4
TOP2A
UBE2C
ESR1
VEGF







IL6ST
MARCKSL1
TPX2
BIRC5
CA12
ESM1


MAPT
DSC2
KIF11
TPX2
GATA3
FLT1


GREB1
HOMER3
CDC2
STK6
KIAA0882
COL4A1


ABAT
TMSB10
ASPM
CCNB2
MLPH
LSP1


SCUBE2
TCF3
NUSAP1
KIF2C
IL6ST
EPOR


NAT1
ZNF124
KIF4A
CDC20
FOXA1
COL4A2


LRIG1
PCAF
KIF20A
PTTG1
SLC39A6
PTGDS


SLC39A6
PTMA
CCNB2
PRC1
C6orf97
ENTPD1


RBBP8
IGSF3
BIRC5
NUSAP1
C6orf211
BNIP3


SIAH2
ENC1
C10orf3
C10orf3
MYB
TPST1


ARL3
MTF2
UBE2C
CENPA
ANXA9
GLIPR1


C9orf116
E2F3
SPAG5
KIF4A
FBP1
ZNFN1A1


CA12
TGIF2
STK6
RACGAP1
SCNN1A
PCDH7


MGC35048
DBN1
CCNB1
ZWINT
MAPT
RGS13


STC2
DSP
NEK2
PSF1
NAT1
GAS7


MEIS4
KLHL24
RACGAP1
BUB1B
CELSR1
LOC56901


ADCY1
PPP1R14B
KIF2C
DLG7
PH-4
TLR4


C6orf97
OPN3
PTTG1
FOXM1
EVL
SYNCRIP


ESR1
HSPA5BP1
MKI67
LOC146909
XBP1
EVI2A


NME5
CREBL2
MAD2L1
ESPL1
AGR2
FNBP3























EIF4B
NATI
CA12
RACGAP1
DCN







IMPDH2
PSD3
ESR1
UBE2C
FBLN1


NACA
EVL
GATA3
NUSAP1
GLT8D2


RPL13A
ESR1
SCNN1A
STK6
SERPINF1


RPL29
KIAA0882
MLPH
PSF1
PDGFRL


RPL14 ///
MAPT
FOXA1
CCNB2
CXCL12


RPL14L


ATP5G2
C9orf116
IL6ST
ZWINT
CRISPLD2


GLTSCR2
ASAH1
KIAA0882
LOC146909
CTSK


RPL3
PCM1
ANXA9
BIRC5
FSTL1


TINP1
SCUBE2
BHLHB2
PRC1
SFRP4


RPL15
IL6ST
XBP1
C10orf3
FBN1


QARS
ABAT
AGR2
TPX2
SPARC


LETMD1
MLPH
MAPT
KIF11
CDH11


PFDN5
VAV3
JMJD2B
DLG7
FAP


EEF2
C14orf45
RHOB
TOP2A
SPON1


RPL6
FOXA1
CELSR1
MELK
C1S


RPL29 ///
GATA3
SPDEF
CENPA
PRRX1


LOC283412 ///


LOC284064 ///


LOC389655 ///


LOC391738 ///


LOC401911


RPL18
KIF13B
VGLL1
NEK2
RECK


EEF1B2
CA12
KRT18
KIF2C
CSPG2


RPL10A
MUC1
C1orf34
CCNB1
LUM


RPS9
C4A /// C4B
WWP1
KIF20A
ANGPTL2
























CTSB
IGFBP3
KRT17
GABRP
FBXO28
KIAA0101







IFI30
VIM
KRT14
SOX10
PARP1
NUSAP1


FCER1G
EFEMP2
KRT5
SFRP1
EPRS
RRM2


NPL
C1R
KRT6B
ROPN1B
IARS2
CCNB2


LAPTM5
GAS1
TRIM29
KRT5
CGI-115
ZWINT


FCGR1A
PLS3
MIA
MIA
C1orf37
PRC1


CD163
SNAI2
DST
MMP7
TFB2M
DTL


TYROBP
SERPING1
ACTG2
KRT17
WDR26
TPX2


NCF2
CFH ///
SFRP1
DMN
RBM34
KIF11



CFHL1


FCGR2A
ID3
MYLK
KRT6B
FH
C10orf3


ITGB2
CFH
GABRP
BBOX1
POGK
CDC2


LILRB1
ENPP2
S100A2
VGLL1
NVL
NEK2


OLR1
FSTL1
SOX10
BCL11A
TIMM17A
ASF1B


C1QB
NXN
ANXA8
TRIM29
ADSS
BIRC5


ATP6V1B2
C10orf10
DMN
CRYAB
CACYBP
KIF4A


FCGR1A ///
FBLN1
BBOX1
SERPINB5
CNIH4
BUB1B


LOC440607


SLC16A3
NNMT
SERPINB5
SOSTDC1
GGPS1
KIF20A


MSR1
C1S
KCNMB1
NFIB
DEGS1
UBE2C


PLAUR
IFI16
DSG3
ELF5
FAM20B
MLF1IP


CHST11
NRN1
DSC3
KRT14
MRPS14
TOP2A


FTL
PDGFRA
KLK5
ANXA8
TBCE
C22orf18
























CHPT1
PCNA
CCND1
NEK2
NR2F2
PDLIM5







SGK3
PSF1
CA12
ASPM
SORBS1
CRSP8


STC2
MAD2L1
TLE3
DTL
IGF1
RSL1D1


PKP2
RAD51AP1
SLC39A6
CENPF
AOC3
FZD1


CCNG2
CDC2
ESR1
NUSAP1
LHFP
PUM1


SP110
MLF1IP
PPFIA1
TPX2
ABCA8
FAM63B


ACADM
H2AFZ
MAGED2
CCNB2
GNG11
DCTD


GCHFR
TPX2
FN5
C10orf3
ADH1B
APP


ABCD3
CCNE2
WWP1
KIF20A
FHL1



IL6ST
RACGAP1
C10orf116
UBE2C
MEOX2
DXS9879E


TSPAN6
MCM2
JMJD2B
TOP2A
C5orf4
HFE


WDR26
KIF11
FBP1
CDC2
PPAP2A
GLRB


CELSR3
CCNB1
UBE2E3
BIRC5
COL14A1
MRPS18A


TFCP2L1
DLG7
AGR2
KIAA0101
CAV1
BMPR1B


STXBP3
CDCA8
FOXA1
FOXM1
LPL
SAV1


NAP1L1
NUSAP1
FADD
RRM2
P2RY5
TROAP


MYBPC1
STK6
TEGT
RACGAP1
FABP4
RPS2 /// LOC91561 ///







LOC148430 ///







LOC286444 ///







LOC400963 ///







LOC440589


DSG2
CCNB2
COPZ1
KIF11
CHRDL1
TOMM40


OSBPL1A
RNASEH2A
MRPS30
PRC1
ELK3
ITGAV


SEC14L2
MELK
KRT18
CCNB1
C10orf56
ESPL1


ARL1
ZWINT
FKBP4
ZWINT
ITM2B
MAP4K5























PRC1
FHL1









NUSAP1
CHRDL1



CCNB2
FABP4



BIRC5
AOC3



UBE2C
ADH1B



FLJ10719
G0S2



TPX2
CAV1



BUB1B
ITIH5



FOXM1
ADIPOQ



C10orf3
LHFP



KIF11
ABCA8



KIF2C
GPX3



KIF4A
PLIN



LOC146909
DPT



ZWINT
TNS1



CENPA
LPL



PTTG1
GPD1



DLG7
SRPX



STK6
RBP4



KIAA0101
CIDEC



RACGAP1
TGFBR2










In summary, the present invention is predicated on a method of identification of a panel of genes informative for the outcome of disease which can be combined into an algorithm for a prognostic or predictive test.

Claims
  • 1. Method for predicting an outcome of cancer in a patient suffering from or suspected of suffering from neoplastic disease, said method comprising: (a) determining in a biological sample from said patient an expression level of a plurality of genes selected from the group consisting of ACTG1, CA12, CALM2, CCND1, CHPT1, CLEC2B, CTSB, CXCL13, DCN, DHRS2, EIF4B, ERBB2, ESR1, FBXO28, GABRP, GAPDH, H2AFZ, IGFBP3, IGHG1, IGKC, KCTD3, KIAA0101, KRT17, MLPH, MMP1, NAT1, NEK2, NR2F2, OAZ1, PCNA, PDLIM5, PGR, PPIA, PRC1, RACGAP1, RPL37A, SOX4, TOP2A, UBE2C and VEGF;(b) based on the expression level of the plurality of genes determined in step (a) determining a risk score for each gene; and(c) mathematically combining said risk scores to yield a combined score, wherein said combined score is indicative of a prognosis of said patient.
  • 2. Method of claim 1, wherein a threshold is determined for said combined score and discriminated into high and low risk by applying the threshold on the combined score.
  • 3. Method of claim 1, wherein all expression levels in said group of expression levels are determined.
  • 4. Method of claim 1 wherein said prognosis is the determination of the risk of recurrence of cancer in said patient within 5 years or the risk of developing distant metastasis.
  • 5. Method of claim 1, wherein said prognosis is a classification of said patient into one of three distinct classes, said classes corresponding to a “high risk” class, an “intermediate risk” class and a “low risk” class.
  • 6. Method of claim 1, wherein said cancer is breast cancer.
  • 7. Method of claim 1, wherein said determination of expression levels is in a formalin-fixed paraffin embedded sample or in a fresh-frozen sample.
  • 8. Method of claim 1, comprising the additional steps of: (d) classifying said sample into one of at least two clinical categories according to clinical data obtained from said patient and/or from said sample, wherein each category is assigned to at least one of said genes of step (a); and(e) determining for each clinical category a risk score;
  • 9. Method of claim 8, wherein said clinical data comprises at least one gene expression level.
  • 10. Method of claim 9, wherein said gene expression level is a gene expression level of at least one of the genes of step (a).
  • 11. Method of claim 8, wherein step (d) comprises applying a decision tree.
  • 12. Method of claim 9, wherein step (d) comprises applying a decision tree.
  • 13. Method of claim 10, wherein step (d) comprises applying a decision tree.
  • 14. Method of claim 2, wherein all expression levels in said group of expression levels are determined.
  • 15. Method of claim 2, wherein said prognosis is the determination of the risk of recurrence of cancer in said patient within 5 years or the risk of developing distant metastasis.
  • 16. Method of claim 2, wherein said prognosis is a classification of said patient into one of three distinct classes, said classes corresponding to a “high risk” class, an “intermediate risk” class and a “low risk” class.
  • 17. Method of claim 2, wherein said cancer is breast cancer.
  • 18. Method of claim 2, wherein said determination of expression levels is in a formalin-fixed paraffin embedded sample or in a fresh-frozen sample.
  • 19. Method of claim 2, comprising the additional steps of: (d) classifying said sample into one of at least two clinical categories according to clinical data obtained from said patient and/or from said sample, wherein each category is assigned to at least one of said genes of step (a); and(e) determining for each clinical category a risk score;
  • 20. Method of claim 19, wherein said clinical data comprises at least one gene expression level.
Priority Claims (1)
Number Date Country Kind
08010919.2 Jun 2008 EP regional
PCT Information
Filing Document Filing Date Country Kind 371c Date
PCT/EP2009/057418 6/16/2009 WO 00 3/11/2011