MPOPHC: Integrating human risk perception and social processes into policy responses in an epidemiological model

Information

  • NSF Award
  • 2436120
Owner
  • Award Id
    2436120
  • Award Effective Date
    10/1/2024 - 9 months ago
  • Award Expiration Date
    9/30/2027 - 2 years from now
  • Award Amount
    $ 1,344,200.00
  • Award Instrument
    Standard Grant

MPOPHC: Integrating human risk perception and social processes into policy responses in an epidemiological model

Epidemics arise from interactions between pathogens and human hosts, where the pathogen influences human behavior and human behavior influences the spread of the pathogen. The models used to predict pathogen spread do not include the complexity of interactions between disease and human behavior but instead focus on biological processes and policy interventions. However, disease transmission depends on people’s behaviors, which are shaped by their perceptions of risk from the disease and from health interventions, as well as by the opinions and behaviors of the other people around them. This project will contribute to the development of mathematical epidemiological models that better represent the complexities of the human response to disease and that can be used to evaluate the relative impacts of public health policies on disease dynamics. The project will be focused on understanding respiratory diseases such as COVID-19, seasonal flu, and bird flu, but can be readily modified to be broadly applicable to other infectious diseases such as HIV or Ebola. The project will contribute to existing national COVID-19 and Flu Scenario Modeling Hubs that are working to better predict and understand the dynamics of infectious disease and to contribute to policy interventions. The Investigators will disseminate the results and foster connections with the disease modeling community through a workshop for public health professionals and will engage the public through production of educational music videos targeted at the broader community<br/><br/>The complexity of human behavior is not well represented in epidemiological models, contributing to reduced skill and utility of model forecasts. While some epidemiological models represent human behavioral responses using a few static parameters, the Investigators will construct models of human behavior and policy processes that update dynamically to represent the dependence of human responses to the evolving state of the epidemic. Human cognition, social and policy responses will be represented using a system of differential equations linked with a traditional Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model using infectious respiratory diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 and H5N1 as model systems. Adoption of protective behaviors (vaccination, physical distancing) will be a function of risk perceptions (from disease and health interventions), health policies (lockdowns, vaccine mandates), and the behavior of other people (social norms). Policy interventions and adoption of protective behaviors mediate disease spread and impacts (infections and deaths) that influence human behavioral and policy responses. Mathematical novelty arises because cognition depends upon the history of infection, so the differential equations have past-dependence, generating differential integral equations. Model outputs will be used to analyze the sensitivity of and uncertainty in epidemic forecasts that arise from human risk perceptions, social influence, protective behaviors, and policy interventions. This project will advance the disease modeling community’s capability to analyze the interlinked dynamics of human social systems and infectious disease, increase the impact of social science on the disease modeling community, and will develop analysis methods for the complex and time-dependent interactions that arise from linkages of disease dynamics with social systems. <br/><br/>This award is co-funded by the NSF Division of Mathematical Sciences (DMS) and the CDC Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division (CORVD).<br/><br/>This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

  • Program Officer
    Zhilan Fengzfeng@nsf.gov7032927523
  • Min Amd Letter Date
    8/7/2024 - 11 months ago
  • Max Amd Letter Date
    8/7/2024 - 11 months ago
  • ARRA Amount

Institutions

  • Name
    University of Vermont & State Agricultural College
  • City
    BURLINGTON
  • State
    VT
  • Country
    United States
  • Address
    85 S PROSPECT STREET
  • Postal Code
    054051704
  • Phone Number
    8026563660

Investigators

  • First Name
    Suzanne
  • Last Name
    Lenhart
  • Email Address
    slenhart@utk.edu
  • Start Date
    8/7/2024 12:00:00 AM
  • First Name
    Brian
  • Last Name
    Beckage
  • Email Address
    Brian.Beckage@uvm.edu
  • Start Date
    8/7/2024 12:00:00 AM
  • First Name
    Charles
  • Last Name
    Sims
  • Email Address
    cbsims@utk.edu
  • Start Date
    8/7/2024 12:00:00 AM
  • First Name
    Katherine
  • Last Name
    Lacasse
  • Email Address
    klacasse@ric.edu
  • Start Date
    8/7/2024 12:00:00 AM

Program Element

  • Text
    OFFICE OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY AC
  • Code
    125300
  • Text
    MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
  • Code
    733400

Program Reference

  • Text
    Critical Resilient Interdependent Infras
  • Text
    EXP PROG TO STIM COMP RES
  • Code
    9150
  • Text
    UNDERGRADUATE EDUCATION
  • Code
    9178
  • Text
    GRADUATE INVOLVEMENT
  • Code
    9179