Appendix A (6 pages) is an example of the code that calculates similarity scores and rank entities for a homogeneous system.
Appendix B (9 pages) contains several examples of raw data showcasing service data.
Appendices A and B form part of the specification and are incorporated herein by reference.
The disclosure relates generally to a system and method for calculating market dynamics and in particular to a system and method for calculating market dynamics in health network systems.
In most cases, for a traditional multicommodity flow problem, there are multiple commodities across a single network so the total amount of flow on each edge is no more than the maximum capacity of the edge. However, these traditional multicommodity flow solutions do not work well for multiple networks with multiple commodity flows calculating supply and demand with multiple network and sub-network flows. For these more complex problems, it is possible to express the problem as a linear programming model. However, most models of this nature fall short with respect to large scale modeling and the large size of the linear programs makes the general simplex algorithm impractical for all but very small problems.
An example of a typical health network in shown in
To exacerbate the problem within a business health network, the technology that drives claims and benefits health care processing in the industry is known as ASC 5010 X12. This is an Electronic Data Interchange standard for the industry. The ASC 5010 X12 standard, however, creates silos within the health network topologies.
The problem of measuring supply and demand within various capital markets are well known and systems and methods exist that address this capital markets problem. However, there are not any systems for calculating commodity flow influence for transactional business models within Health Related entities such as a provider, a consumer, a service and a transaction. Furthermore, the known capital market techniques cannot be used for health related entities because the health related entities are unique and have problems that did not exist until health services marketplaces took hold.
G=(V,E)
in which E is an edge and V is a vertex and
A flow f is a directed graph as stated that has the same vertices of G, where every single edge has a value spanning from 0 to ce where ce is the capacity of that specific edge. Formally, a solution to the Single Commodity Flow System is a mapping f: E→R+, denoted f(u,v) or fuv which assigns to every edge (u,v) Å E a non-negative flow value xu,v≧0 such that the following two fundamental flow constraints are conserved:
The structure of the Single Commodity Flow System describes the simplest view of modeling the diffusion of entities throughout a network.
In a historical case, suppose that a company has a factory s and a warehouse t. The quantity of goods that the company can ship from the factory to the warehouse in a given time period is limited by the road network connecting the two facilities. The company wants to determine the maximum quantity of goods that can be shipped through the road network. This scenario is a case of the standard max-flow problem for a single commodity network in which the single commodity is quantity of goods. It is well known that the max-flow is equal to the min-cut (described in Ahlswede, Rudolf, et al. “Network information flow.” Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on 46.4 (2000): 1204 -1216 which is incorporated herein by reference), which, in this case, would be the set of roads with the smallest capacity such that removing the roads disconnects the graph. In this theoretic example, perhaps it is a collection of bridges that cause a bottleneck when trying to cross the local river. However, the SCF system is inadequate for the complex health network systems with multiple commodities as described above.
A solution to the Multicommodity Flow System assigns, to every edge e ∈ E for every commodity k ∈ K, a non-negative flow value xe,k≧0 such that the following principles of flow are obeyed:
The design of the Multicommodity Flow System enables us to model the diffusion of multiple entities throughout a network with a single entrance and exit. However, this static MCF system described above is also inadequate. In particular, the above static MCF cannot model the inherent dynamic nature of the healthcare system along with ever changing source and sink targets.
The multicommodity flow system may be used for a company that has multiple factories that each make a different product to distribute to several warehouses, each warehouse has a fluctuating demand for each of the products and each product has a different distribution frequency. It is desirable to determine the same solution as before; however, the system is constrained to model a maximum distribution from within a multivariate and dynamic network.
As such, the concurrent maximum flow can be defined to be the largest fraction f such that the method can fill a fraction fi of each of these demands simultaneously and dynamically. However, the static MCF system cannot handle the diffusion of healthcare information that perpetrates throughout the network in a dynamic manner in both type and source.
A known Dynamic Multicommodity Flow System is a directed network N=(V,E,K,T,ω,μ,T,d,φ) with set of vertices V, directed edges E and set of commodities K. Further, each edge e ∈ E has a nonnegative time-varying capacity ωk,e(t) which bounds the total flow for each commodity kover each edge e ∈ E during time t ∈ T. Over all commodities k ∈ K, each edge is further constrained by the mutual edge capacity μk∈(t) such that Σi=0k ωi,∈(t)≧μk∈(t) Additionally, each edge has a transmit time τ531 which determines the time it takes for the commodities to flow from the source to the destination of the corresponding edge. Lastly, the entire network also consists of a demand function diV×K×Γ→R+ and a cost function φ; E×R+×K×Γ→R+, where Γ={0,1, . . . T}
In a Dynamic Multicommodity Flow System, the demand function dv,k(t) is constrained to the following conditions:
In order to model flow in this network, the existence of a flow equilibrium is required. That is, Σt ∈ Γ Σv ∈V dv,k(t)=0,∀k ∈ K. Further, the sources of this network are those vertices with negative demand, Σt ∈ Γ dv,k(t)<0, the sinks of this network are those vertices with positive demand: Σt ∈ Γ dv,k(t)>0 and the intermediate nodes are those with zero demand: Σt ∈Γ dv,k(t)=0. The sources are the nodes through which flow enters the network and the sinks are the nodes through which flow exits the network. The intermediate nodes are transport nodes.
In a Dynamic Multicommodity Flow System, the cost function also takes into account the transit cost of a commodity k throughout the network with the function φk,∈(xk,∈(t),t); meaning that the flow of commodity kof value xk,e(t) entering edge e at time t will incur a transit cost of φk,e(xk,e(t),t).
As such, the total cost of the dynamic multicommodity flow xis defined as:
c(x)=Σt=0T Σk∈K Σe ∈E φk,e(xk,∈(t),t) [Equation 1]
The Multicommodity Dynamic Flow problem is to find a feasible flow that minimizes the objective function as shown in Equation 1.
The disclosure is particularly applicable to a multi-commodity system for health networks implemented in a SaaS or client/server architecture and it is in this context that the disclosure will be described. It will be appreciated, however, that the system and method has greater utility since the system and method can be implemented in other manners that are also within the scope of the disclosure.
The system and method may be used to calculate the rate of change for the influence of supply and demand with respect to several multi-variate factors for the practitioner, payer and consumer alike in a health network. The system and method may have a process that computes the influence of several transactional based entities within a business based health architecture. The influence score may be calculated from within each homogeneous system and used to infer the likelihood of connectivity throughout the entire heterogeneous model.
There has been much literature covering diffusion of health innovations in areas such as pharmaceuticals, devices and medical services (Medical Innovation-A Diffusion Study, Coleman, J. S., Katz, E., Menzel, H., Bobbs-Merrill Company, 1966; and Diffusion of Innovations In Health Service Organizations-A Systematic Literature Review, Greenhalgh, T., Glenn, R., Bate, P., Macfarlane, F., Kyriakidou, O., Blackwell Publishing, 2005). The system and method disclosed below may calculate the diffusion of information theoretic data, compute the influencers in each of the areas of business driven health sectors and optimize entity matching likelihoods across health network silos. For example, the system and method may be used for a healthcare network for market index prediction, target market segmentation and a myriad of other market driven applications.
The system described below may be used in the health sector that has social and professional networks within the health sector. In one exemplary implementation, a search topology that encompasses 4.1 million health care providers was created. The providers include acupuncture, chiropractors, surgeons and general practitioners in all of the different health specialties. With respect to these providers, the professional communications through which information, influence and innovation occur is bounded. Further, the flow of information exchange and influence is deeply obfuscated within the networks and subnetworks. In the system, the these networks may be modeled with a graph topology. The graph topology coalesces claims and benefits transactions, payment exchanges, payers [insurers] and consumer behavior.
With the graph topology, the system and method uses the observed data exchanges to extract behaviors, derive individual influence and model the cascade of information exchange. The calculation and prediction of influence throughout the network may be performed by the system using techniques known as Multi Commodity Flow Algorithms.
The system allows calculations of information cascades across several vertically oriented networks within the overall operational aspects being ensconced in a graph theoretic persistence and calculation. This information cascade calculation is specifically aimed at calculating the commodity flow within these otherwise siloed networks. As shown in
Returning to
Based on
The system and method described below may be used to solve the multicommodity dynamic flow problem over a health network with non-disjoint and dynamic sets of source, sink and transport nodes (an example of which is shown in
Given a dynamic multicommodity network, the system and method seeks to estimate the amount of flow capacity ωk,∈(t) for each edge e for k commodities throughout time T while adhering to the demand and capacity constraints. The instance of the problem being solved by the system and method and its solution may be formally framed as follows:
Given a graph G=(V,E,K,T,ω,T, d) where each vertex v ∈ V has dynamic weight dk,v(t) for commodity k ∈ K and each vertex is both a source and a sink for the flow of commodity k ∈ K in N(vi), find an assignment of flow capacities ωk,∈(t) which satisfies the following constraints:
1. Capacity constraints: Σi=0k ωi,∈(t)≦μ∈(t) , where μk,∈(t) is the universal capacity allowed on edge e at time t (the flow of a vertex cannot exceed its total capacity)
2. Flow conservation: rk(t)=Σv∈N(v) ωk,e(t)=dk,N(t) (the sum of the flow exiting a node and the remaining flow equal the original vertex capacity) If the measure of diffusion for vertex v ∈ V is represented by rk(t) and the value of flow is given by |f|=Σv∈N(v) ωk,e(t) , then the maximal diffusion estimation for this instance of a Dynamic Multicommodity Network is to maximize |f| such that Σv∈N(v) rk(t)→0.
The system and method uses methodologies in social influence and entity ranking to model optimal matchings, predict market indices and create target segmentation within a healthcare network. The importance of social influence and entity ranking within the context of social and economic networks is well documented and understood (see Jackson, Matthew O. Social and economic networks. Vol, 3. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008: and Jackson, Matthew O., and Alison Watts. “The evolution of social and economic networks,”Journal of Economic Theory 106.2 (2002): 265-295, both of which are incorporated herein by reference). The system and method apply dynamic entity ranking through application of multicommodity flow within a health network.
In a healthcare network, the system and method dynamically models the flow of a myriad of commodities throughout various sets of entities (as shown in
V ⊂ {Pa,Pr,C,S,T}, [Equation 2]
where the sets are defined as follows: Pα are the payors, Prare the providers, C are the consumers, S are the services and T are the transactions observed within the healthcare network as shown in
In one implementation, as shown in
In the system, each computing device 102, such as computing devices 102a, 102b, . . . , 102n, may be a processor based device with memory, persistent storage, wired or wireless communication circuits and a display that allows each computing device to connect to and couple over the communication path 106 to a backend component 108. For example, each computing device may be a smartphone device, such as an Apple Computer product, Android OS based product, etc., a tablet computer, a personal computer, a terminal device, a laptop computer and the like. In one embodiment shown in
The backend component 108 may be implemented using one or more computing resources, such as a processor, memory, flash memory, a hard disk drive, a blade server, an application server, a database server, a server computer, cloud computing resources and the like. The health marketplace 110 and the market dynamics component 113 may each be implemented in software or hardware. When the health marketplace 110 and the market dynamics component 113 are each implemented in software, each component may be a plurality of lines of computer code that reside on the backend component 108 (or are downloaded to the backend component 108) and may be executed by a processor of the backend component 108 so that the processor is configured to perform the operations of the health marketplace 110 or the market dynamics component 113. When the health marketplace 110 and the market dynamics component 113 and each implemented in hardware, each component may be an application specific integrated circuit, a microcontroller, a programmable logic device and the like that perform the operations of the health marketplace 110 or the market dynamics component 113.
An example of the specific update and feedback loops of the market dynamics component are detailed in
As shown , these rankings are combined to assess commodity predictions (commodity assessment process 504). In turn, these recommendations are simultaneously used to update the internal ranking system while driving external recommendations 506. The actions taken, or not taken, for each recommendation create additional data points for further refinement of this system. For example, recommendation scores are shown in
Based on common properties within each system, the system may apply various techniques in similarity scoring and entity ranking to dynamically calculate each vertex's total influence from within its network. For example,
The method for determining the entity rank may be looped over the traversal to estimate the eigenvectors associated with the pagerank of this same system (as example of which is described in White, Scott, and Padhraic Smyth. “Algorithms for estimating relative importance in networks.” Proceedings of the ninth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining. ACM, 2003 which is incorporated herein by reference).
The system may then apply the internal rankings across homogeneous systems (an example of which is shown in
As shown in
Returning to
An example of the above process is now provided. The system and method for computing the multicommodity flow for the dynamic influence of a healthcare network contains the following the processes shown in
Graph Schema Construction and Process
Now, the graph schema construction and its process (process 1002 above that may be carried out by the health graph engine 503 in
Calculate Similarity Scores and Entity Ranks for Homogeneous System
An example of the code that may be used to calculate similarity scores and entity rank is included in Appendix A that is incorporated herein by reference. In particular, the code in Appendix A calculates the ranking and diffusion of influence for providers according to the structure of their homogeneous network via basic best mode algorithm. The influence scores can be calculated according to a single property, the Euclidean distance between primary practice locations, or a combination. The final similarity score is represented either as a vote or a continuous likelihood which ranges between the min and max observed similarity scores.
Calculate the Maximum Network Capacity for Heterogeneous Connectivity for Multiple Commodities
The system and method translate the influence ranking from within each vertex system to instantiate the estimation of multicommodity flow throughout the network.
The system and method define ωk,∈(t) to be the maximum edge capacity for flow of commodity k at time t. The system defines dk,i(t) to be the total input capacity for vertex vi, where d k,i(t) is dynamically calculated to be the total influence vertex vi has amongst its homogeneous system. The system and method seeks to assign each value wke(t) such that Σv∈N(v) rk(t)→0 where rk(t)=dk,N(t)−Σv∈N(v) ωk,∈(t). An example of the pseudocode for flow estimation used in the model is shown in
Recommend, Segment, or Predict. Apply Update Rules for Dynamic Database Ranking and Capacity Estimation
Additional granularity augments this problem with the observation of transactional ratings and referrals, as demonstrated in
dk
where α is a learned weight of the system's behavior, t represents time, k is specific to the commodity of interest, d is the total vertex demand at time t, and r is the rating of the transaction.
The system and method may apply methodologies from reinforcement learning to learn the weight α as t→τ. The system may start by initializing alpha to be α=0.5 and apply eligibility traces to learn the dynamic weight of the update rule. The system and method may implement eligibility traces due to their useful nature for representing a short-term memory process which gradually decays over time. These traces give the system and method the ability to award a good (or bad) event by augmenting the total credit accordingly. Most generally, an accumulating trace is a trace which builds up over time when each state is visited with a decay parameter. The conventional definition for this update rule is as follows:
where λ≦0≦1 is the value of decay and γ≦0≦1 is the discount-rate. The system and method can set γ and λ both to 1 to treat the system as a true accumulative trace with infinite memory, or the system and method may set γ and λ both to 0 to treat the update system as a Markovian model.
Result: An update procedure for tracking the dynamic influence score
Input: A recommendation as an edge e, decay parameter λ and the discount rate λ
For v1 and v2 ∈ e,
Observe trial at time ti
Classify outcome of trial
For v1 and v2 ∈ e,
The foregoing description, for purpose of explanation, has been described with reference to specific embodiments. However, the illustrative discussions above are not intended to be exhaustive or to limit the disclosure to the precise forms disclosed. Many modifications and variations are possible in view of the above teachings. The embodiments were chosen and described in order to best explain the principles of the disclosure and its practical applications, to thereby enable others skilled in the art to best utilize the disclosure and various embodiments with various modifications as are suited to the particular use contemplated.
The system and method disclosed herein may be implemented via one or more components, systems, servers, appliances, other subcomponents, or distributed between such elements. When implemented as a system, such systems may include an/or involve, inter alia, components such as software modules, general-purpose CPU, RAM, etc. found in general-purpose computers,. In implementations where the innovations reside on a server, such a server may include or involve components such as CPU, RAM, etc., such as those found in general-purpose computers.
Additionally, the system and method herein may be achieved via implementations with disparate or entirely different software, hardware and/or firmware components, beyond that set forth above. With regard to such other components (e.g., software, processing components, etc.) and/or computer-readable media associated with or embodying the present inventions, for example, aspects of the innovations herein may be implemented consistent with numerous general purpose or special purpose computing systems or configurations. Various exemplary computing systems, environments, and/or configurations that may be suitable for use with the innovations herein may include, but are not limited to: software or other components within or embodied on personal computers, servers or server computing devices such as routing/connectivity components, hand-held or laptop devices, multiprocessor systems, microprocessor-based systems, set top boxes, consumer electronic devices, network PCs, other existing computer platforms, distributed computing environments that include one or more of the above systems or devices, etc.
In some instances, aspects of the system and method may be achieved via or performed by logic and/or logic instructions including program modules, executed in association with such components or circuitry, for example. In general, program modules may include routines, programs, objects, components, data structures, etc. that perform particular tasks or implement particular instructions herein. The inventions may also be practiced in the context of distributed software, computer, or circuit settings where circuitry is connected via communication buses, circuitry or links. In distributed settings, control/instructions may occur from both local and remote computer storage media including memory storage devices.
The software, circuitry and components herein may also include and/or utilize one or more type of computer readable media. Computer readable media can be any available media that is resident on, associable with, or can be accessed by such circuits and/or computing components. By way of example, and not limitation, computer readable media may comprise computer storage media and communication media. Computer storage media includes volatile and nonvolatile, removable and non-removable media implemented in any method or technology for storage of information such as computer readable instructions, data structures, program modules or other data. Computer storage media includes, but is not limited to, RAM, ROM, EEPROM, flash memory or other memory technology, CD-ROM, digital versatile disks (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other medium which can be used to store the desired information and can accessed by computing component. Communication media may comprise computer readable instructions, data structures, program modules and/or other components. Further, communication media may include wired media such as a wired network or direct-wired connection, however no media of any such type herein includes transitory media. Combinations of the any of the above are also included within the scope of computer readable media.
In the present description, the terms component, module, device, etc. may refer to any type of logical or functional software elements, circuits, blocks and/or processes that may be implemented in a variety of ways. For example, the functions of various circuits and/or blocks can be combined with one another into any other number of modules. Each module may even be implemented as a software program stored on a tangible memory (e.g., random access memory, read only memory, CD-ROM memory, hard disk drive, etc.) to be read by a central processing unit to implement the functions of the innovations herein. Or, the modules can comprise programming instructions transmitted to a general purpose computer or to processing/graphics hardware via a transmission carrier wave. Also, the modules can be implemented as hardware logic circuitry implementing the functions encompassed by the innovations herein. Finally, the modules can be implemented using special purpose instructions (SIMD instructions), field programmable logic arrays or any mix thereof which provides the desired level performance and cost.
As disclosed herein, features consistent with the disclosure may be implemented via computer-hardware, software and/or firmware. For example, the systems and methods disclosed herein may be embodied in various forms including, for example, a data processor, such as a computer that also includes a database, digital electronic circuitry, firmware, software, or in combinations of them. Further, while some of the disclosed implementations describe specific hardware components, systems and methods consistent with the innovations herein may be implemented with any combination of hardware, software and/or firmware. Moreover, the above-noted features and other aspects and principles of the innovations herein may be implemented in various environments. Such environments and related applications may be specially constructed for performing the various routines, processes and/or operations according to the invention or they may include a general-purpose computer or computing platform selectively activated or reconfigured by code to provide the necessary functionality. The processes disclosed herein are not inherently related to any particular computer, network, architecture, environment, or other apparatus, and may be implemented by a suitable combination of hardware, software, and/or firmware. For example, various general-purpose machines may be used with programs written in accordance with teachings of the invention, or it may be more convenient to construct a specialized apparatus or system to perform the required methods and techniques.
Aspects of the method and system described herein, such as the logic, may also be implemented as functionality programmed into any of a variety of circuitry, including programmable logic devices (“PLDs”), such as field programmable gate arrays (“FPGAs”), programmable array logic (“PAL”) devices, electrically programmable logic and memory devices and standard cell-based devices, as well as application specific integrated circuits. Some other possibilities for implementing aspects include: memory devices, microcontrollers with memory (such as EEPROM), embedded microprocessors, firmware, software, etc. Furthermore, aspects may be embodied in microprocessors having software-based circuit emulation, discrete logic (sequential and combinatorial), custom devices, fuzzy (neural) logic, quantum devices, and hybrids of any of the above device types. The underlying device technologies may be provided in a variety of component types, e.g., metal-oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor (“MOSFET”) technologies like complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (“CMOS”), bipolar technologies like emitter-coupled logic (“ECL”), polymer technologies (e.g., silicon-conjugated polymer and metal-conjugated polymer-metal structures), mixed analog and digital, and so on.
It should also be noted that the various logic and/or functions disclosed herein may be enabled using any number of combinations of hardware, firmware, and/or as data and/or instructions embodied in various machine-readable or computer-readable media, in terms of their behavioral, register transfer, logic component, and/or other characteristics. Computer-readable media in which such formatted data and/or instructions may be embodied include, but are not limited to, non-volatile storage media in various forms (e.g., optical, magnetic or semiconductor storage media) though again does not include transitory media. Unless the context clearly requires otherwise, throughout the description, the words “comprise,” “comprising,” and the like are to be construed in an inclusive sense as opposed to an exclusive or exhaustive sense; that is to say, in a sense of “including, but not limited to.” Words using the singular or plural number also include the plural or singular number respectively. Additionally, the words “herein,” “hereunder,” “above,” “below,” and words of similar import refer to this application as a whole and not to any particular portions of this application. When the word “or” is used in reference to a list of two or more items, that word covers all of the following interpretations of the word: any of the items in the list, all of the items in the list and any combination of the items in the list.
Although certain presently preferred implementations of the invention have been specifically described herein, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art to which the invention pertains that variations and modifications of the various implementations shown and described herein may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Accordingly, it is intended that the invention be limited only to the extent required by the applicable rules of law.
While the foregoing has been with reference to a particular embodiment of the disclosure, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes in this embodiment may be made without departing from the principles and spirit of the disclosure, the scope of which is defined by the appended claims.
This application is a continuation of and claims priority under 35 USC 120 to U.S. patent application Ser. No. 14/625,482, filed on Feb. 18, 2015 and entitled “Multi Commodity System and Method for Calculating Market Dynamics in Health Network System”, the entirety of which is incorporated herein by reference.
Number | Date | Country | |
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Parent | 14625482 | Feb 2015 | US |
Child | 14941045 | US |