NSF Award
0455124
While there is wide consensus on the need for improved community safety from sex offenders, substantial debate exists regarding the effectiveness of registration and notification procedures and potentially negative impact of such practices, particularly as applied to juveniles. This study will examine whether stringent registration laws have had the intended effect of reducing rates of sexual offending among juveniles via a deterrence effect, an incapacitation effect, or both. This study will also examine whether these same laws have had an unintended effect of reducing the probability that youths who commit serious sexual offenses will be prosecuted or adjudicated for such offenses because the policies are viewed by those who implement them as too harsh. In collaboration with two departments in the state of South Carolina, data from three time periods will be obtained: four years prior to registration, four years following registration but prior to on-line Internet availability, and four years following on-line Internet availability. Data will include arrest, prosecution, and adjudication information for serious sexual offenses, serious non-sexual offenses (i.e., assault and robbery) and victim reports of sexual assault. Data on potentially important covariates will also be collected, including annual number of police officers, annual appropriations for juvenile justice and annual workforce within juvenile justice. ARIMA models will be developed to examine whether trends in general sexual offending simply mirror the trends seen in other serious crimes or are due to registration and notification policies. Survival analyses will be conducted to examine whether registration and notification policies are associated with lower recidivism rates among registered (vs. non-registered) youth. ARIMA models and sequential probability models will be developed to address whether official responses to juvenile sex offending changed following implementation of harsh registration and notification policies. Study results should place policy makers in a much better position to determine the relative costs and benefits of maintaining comprehensive registration and notification policies.
