NSF Award
2406663
Coral reefs are threatened by a myriad of processes, such as global climate change and local disturbances from large storm events and pollution. Such disturbances can lead to a reduction in the diversity and abundance of corals with implications for the long-term persistence of coral communities on tropical islands. Understanding coral reef resilience in response to these impacts is critical given the immense societal and economic value of coral reefs for the defense and sustenance of coastal communities. Despite these impacts, some coral reefs exhibit patterns of recovery following disturbances, raising questions as to why and how some coral communities can recover. This research will investigate how mosaics in the diversity and abundance of coral communities across an island can operate as insurance by replenishing locations experiencing coral loss with new coral communities following environmental disturbance. Additionally, this work will evaluate how this insurance effect in coral communities may be altered by climate change. This research will enhance our understanding of how coral reefs will persist as the effects of climate change increase, and will reinforce existing scientific aims within the NSF Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program. Additionally, this work will enhance ongoing coral restoration and conservation practices and provide opportunities and training in coral reef ecology and data science for underrepresented groups in marine science. Through performing innovative, interdisciplinary science this research promotes the national interest by enriching our knowledge of marine ecosystems and broadening participation in STEM.<br/> <br/>Understanding the processes contributing to the stability and resilience of ecosystems has become a key focus of modern ecology as the contemporary effects of human activity become more clear. On tropical coral reefs, where myriad disturbances occurring at multiple spatial and temporal scales have important impacts on the structure and function of ecological communities, examining the spatiotemporal patterns of community recovery is important for understanding the underlying drivers of community resilience. However, the mechanisms by which disparate habitats function to promote regional stability and promote reef recovery are elusive. This research will investigate how environmental conditions across spatial scales promote spatial mosaics in coral community composition contributing to island-scale coral community resilience. Specifically, this work will evaluate how spatiotemporal variation in environmental conditions can lead to variations in coral community structure, enhancing island-scale persistence of coral taxa, while larval connectivity connects disparate locations promoting reef recovery. This work leverages long term coral community structure and environmental data from the Moorea Coral Reef Long Term Ecological Research Program (MCR LTER) with oceanographic modeling to predict the spatiotemporal patterns of coral recruitment underpinning emergent patterns of coral reef resilience. Finally, this research examines how future oceanographic and environmental conditions may influence patterns of coral community resilience. This work will lead to an enhanced understanding of coral community resilience on Moorea and in subtidal marine communities exhibiting community and environmental mosaics in general. Additionally, this research focuses on key themes within the NSF MCR LTER: including physical-biological coupling over multiple scales, and the generation of physical-ecological models that synthesize long-term data to obtain generality. The broader impacts of this award provide key benefits to the natural interest by enhancing our understanding of ecological resilience and through mentoring, inspiring, and preparing a future generation of scientists.<br/><br/>This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
