Patent Application
20200234163
The present invention is related to collecting data on a resource of interest, and more particularly to evaluating the contents data characterizing hydrocarbon reservoirs, where the data is stored in a data room, and prior to visiting the data room housing the data.
Each hydrocarbon reservoir is located on one or more tracts of land. Each tract of land, also called an exploration block, has an inherent total value that is based on reservoir properties within that block. The inherent value depends on the total amount of material (e.g., oil and gas) that is ultimately recoverable from the reservoir block, offset by the cost of recovering the material or capture difficulty. Experts can estimate that value for exploration blocks from previously collected data and available knowledge. In the oil and gas industry, for example, the resource property owner, or authority, collects data about exploration blocks, and maintains and houses that data in what is known as a data room. There are different types of data rooms, depending upon the host and the available data. A data room may be a physical room, a virtual room, or a data center. Usually data room are secure or privileged, i.e., secret. The host may be a private company or a government. A traditional secure data room may be physically, continually monitored, normally in the vendor's offices or another secure location.
In the oil and gas industry, the available data may be just reports or include seismic information and exploration well information. Interested oil and gas production companies have teams visit one or more data room(s) to obtain more information about exploration blocks of interest. Normally, data room hosts charge an entry fee for visits, and require payment before a production company can send observers to analyze onsite whatever data is available in the room(s). Thus, each production company must decide which exploration blocks to pursue, and then determine whether visiting the data room is worth the cost of admission. Whenever there are multiple data rooms, or possibly, different exploration blocks of potential interest, the production company must decide which data room(s) is/are worth the entry fee.
Thus, there is a need to determine the value of visiting a data room prior to entry, and more particularly, to decide which data rooms to visit to maximize the potential value of any exploration block information that may be obtained, before paying any entry fee(s) for visiting the data room(s).
A feature of the invention is a determination of value of information recovered in data room visits prior to an actual visit;
Another feature of the invention is the ability to interactively study the value of information contained in data rooms with regard to hydrocarbon reservoirs under consideration for exploitation prior to actual data room visits by hydrocarbon company representatives;
Yet another feature of the invention is the ability of oil companies to estimate what might be the value of information from any particular data room visit, prior to actually visits to the data rooms, allowing the companies to avoid potentially costly, unfruitful visits.
The present invention relates to a method of data room content evaluation and a computer program product therefor. Valuation inputs indicate contents expected to be determined in a data room visit. A projected content range is selected for each valuation input and prior models are elicited. Conditional probabilities for a likelihood model are estimated interactively. Using estimated conditional probabilities the value of a visit or visits are calculated for subsequent analysis. Then, the value of data room visits may be determined by interactively analyzing estimated conditional probabilities.
The foregoing and other objects, aspects and advantages will be better understood from the following detailed description of a preferred embodiment of the invention with reference to the drawings, in which:
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, aspects of the present invention may be embodied as a system, method or computer program product. Accordingly, aspects of the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment (including firmware, resident software, micro-code, etc.) or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects that may all generally be referred to herein as a “circuit,” “module” or “system.” Furthermore, aspects of the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied in one or more computer readable medium(s) having computer readable program code embodied thereon.
Any combination of one or more computer readable medium(s) may be utilized. The computer readable medium may be a computer readable signal medium or a computer readable storage medium. A computer readable storage medium may be, for example, but not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of the computer readable storage medium would include the following: an electrical connection having one or more wires, a portable computer diskette, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or Flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. In the context of this document, a computer readable storage medium may be any tangible medium that can contain, or store a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.
A computer readable signal medium may include a propagated data signal with computer readable program code embodied therein, for example, in baseband or as part of a carrier wave. Such a propagated signal may take any of a variety of forms, including, but not limited to, electro-magnetic, optical, or any suitable combination thereof. A computer readable signal medium may be any computer readable medium that is not a computer readable storage medium and that can communicate, propagate, or transport a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.
Program code embodied on a computer readable medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to wireless, wireline, optical fiber cable, RF, etc., or any suitable combination of the foregoing.
Computer program code for carrying out operations for aspects of the present invention may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including an object oriented programming language such as Java, Smalltalk, C++ or the like and conventional procedural programming languages, such as the “C” programming language or similar programming languages. The program code may execute entirely on the user's computer, partly on the user's computer, as a stand-alone software package, partly on the user's computer and partly on a remote computer or entirely on the remote computer or server. In the latter scenario, the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or the connection may be made to an external computer (for example, through the Internet using an Internet Service Provider).
Aspects of the present invention are described below with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable medium that can direct a computer, other programmable data processing apparatus, or other devices to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer readable medium produce an article of manufacture including instructions which implement the function/act specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer, other programmable data processing apparatus, or other devices to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer, other programmable apparatus or other devices to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide processes for implementing the functions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Turning now to the drawings and more particularly,
Evaluation inputs to the system 100 may include, for example, initial probabilistic assessments of reservoir features, reservoir properties, potential measurements, and any other features that may be observed and scored in the data room(s) 102104 to be evaluated. From these sources the system 100 determines the value to the company of visiting each data room for each data block. This is especially useful where a company may have multiple potential blocks and multiple data rooms available to visit. From the evaluation results the company can make an informed selection of which data room(s) 102104 to visit for a particular exploration block prior to the visit, and prior to paying the appurtenant fee. Typically, company agents may be experts. It is understood that agent, agents, expert and experts are used interchangeably herein to represent whomever a particular company selects or retains for deciding which data room(s) and/or block(s) to visit.
In this example the system 100 includes two (2) input devices, e.g., computers 106, 108, for company agents to input available data room information and assessment requirements and to receive assessment results of VOI of data potential room visits. The input devices 106, 108 may include integrated and/or connected displays 110. The input devices 106, 108 may be coupled to, and communicate wired or wirelessly with, each other over a network 112, e.g., a local area network (LAN), the Internet, an intranet, or a combination or hybrid thereof. Typically, the input devices 106, 108 also include one or more processors, e.g., central processing unit (CPU) 114 and memory 116 and some local storage 118.
The GUI may include a welcome page or window, e.g., displayed on display 110 that presents that introduces terminology and lists high-level features and properties. Typical valuation inputs include geological features, average geometric properties, average petro-physical properties and economic assumptions. Geological features (F) are treated as a set of binary variables, e.g., a yes or no. Geometric properties, petro-physical properties and economic assumptions are all quantifiable parameters, and may be provided as a value within a range, e.g., Xo+x.
The binary geological features in the set (F) may indicate, for example, the presence or absence of: source rock (SR); reservoir rock (RR); and/or a trap or traps (Tr). Also, as described hereinbelow, geological features may also include whether migration (M) or timing (Ti) suitable for hydrocarbon accumulation has occurred. Preferably, average geometric properties include average reservoir area (A) and height (h). Preferred average petro-physical properties may include average porosity (φ), average net-to-gross (NTG) and average oil saturation (s0), as well as a fluid volume factor (B0) and a recovery factor (η). Preferred economic assumptions include the price of oil (OP), e.g., per cubic meter (m3) and total cost (C).
Further, each of these binary variables may be associated with a score range that represents results likely to be observed in the data room for that the respective feature 1222. So, the company agent or agents may project content ranges 1240, 1242 for each selected feature, preferably as a pair of integer scores (min, max) 1244, 1246 that represents a range of expected data room results. Preferably, the feature ranges 1240, 1242 are projected from expert deliberation about all available evidence for the data room currently being considered. As an example, the projected content range 1242 ranges from 0-5, where 5 indicates is likely to find substantial evidence, and 0 very little or no evidence is likely. Estimates or, if known, actual scores are applied to geometric properties, petro-physical properties and economic assumptions. Preferably, the project ranges 1240, 1242 are selected to adequately capture the diversity of degrees of evidence conceivably found for each respective, selected feature 1222.
Typically, the company agent bases probability estimates 126 on any available, currently-possessed probability distributions and information. For example, basin database/reports can contain extractable geological feature distributions. Reservoir analogues may also provide database information about reservoirs similar to the reservoir under consideration.
For each particular feature the conditional probabilities estimated in (128 in
For example, for the existence of traps (Tr), the likelihood model reflects the probability, p(Tr′|Tr), that each score will be the actual score (Tr′) observed in the data room, i.e., whether or not a trap is present. So for “perfect” data for example, p(Tr′=5|Tr=1)=1 and p(Tr′=0|Tr=0)=1. This indicates that the data room information is always the highest score if there truly is a trap, and always the lowest score if there is no trap.
The system 100 determines revenue (R) from oil, if oil is indeed present (i.e. if all the geological features are present), as a function of the average petro-physical properties, average geometric properties and economic assumptions with the form R=(A*h*ϕ*NTG*s0*(1/Bo)*OP*η). Without additional information from or about the data room, the system 100 determines the probability (P(F)) that oil is present from P(F)=P(SR)*P(RR)*P(Tr)*P(M)*P(Ti). So then, the system 100 generates 1304 the baseline value, i.e., prior to access to measurements/scores of geological features and without information from the data room, from
where u1(.) is the inverse utility function, and dR=(dA*dh*dϕ*dNTG*ds0*dBo*dη). The expression inside the maximization (max{ }) represents the two alternatives—to buy or not to buy the block under consideration. Preferably, the system 100 uses Monte Carlo sampling to approximate
In a simple numerical example with a risk-neutral (i.e., linear) utility function, the agent provides petro-physical properties, geometric properties and economic assumptions modeled as constants (i.e., as deterministic variables) for potential data room visit for a particular exploration block. From those properties and assumptions for this example, and provided that all the geological features are favorable and with the cost of developing the block of ten million dollars ($10M), the calculated revenue (R) from the field is one billion dollars ($1B). Also for this example, instead of checking (selecting) multiple high-level geological features (122 and 124 in
For this example, the likelihood model representing expectations of the type and reliability of the trap data to be found in the data room: for yes is P(Tr′=L|Tr=1)=0.0, P(Tr′=M|Tr=1)=0.2, and P(Tr′=H|Tr=1)=0.8; and, for no is P(Tr′=L|Tr=0)=0.8, P(Tr′=M|Tr=0)=0.2, and P(Tr′=H|Tr=0)=0.0. It follows that the prior value 1304 for this visit is PV=max {(0.0025*990)+(0.9975*−10), 0}=max{−7.5, 0}=0. Since the prior value 1304 is zero, the agent would tend to decide to decline developing the block, if that decision were just based on these a priori results. However, determining the VOI requires more than just prior results 1304.
Generating a posterior value 1306 begins with the data measurement scores, F′={SR′,RR′,Tr′,M′,Ti′}, and applying Bayesian updating to the previously obtained probability (P(F)) that oil is present. This generates a pre-posterior probability P(F′)=P(SR′)*P(RR′)*P(Tr′)*P(M′)*P(Ti′) and posterior probability P(F|F′)=P(SR|SR′)*P(RR|RR′)*P(Tr|Tr′)*P(M|M′)*P(Ti|Ti′), where F={SR,RR,Tr,M,Ti}. From this the posterior value 1306,
reflects the value of using the information from the data room. Thus, the PoV is the sum (or integration) over all possible measurements that could potentially be made. Again preferably, the system 100 uses Monte Carlo sampling to approximate
So, continuing the above simple example, Bayesian updating results in pre-posterior probabilities: P(Tr′=L)=0.72, P(Tr′=M)=0.2, and P(Tr′=H)=0.08; and, posterior probabilities: P(Tr=1|Tr′=L)=0, P(Tr=1|Tr′=M)=0.1, and P(Tr=1|Tr′=H)=1. From these pre-posterior and posterior probabilities, the system generates the posterior value:
The monetary VOI amount 1308 estimates the value of visiting the current data room and whether or not it is worth visiting the data room. In subsequent analysis 132 the company agent uses these sensitivity plots 1322, 1324 to analyze potential VOIs 1308 for deciding whether a visit or visits to the respective data room will be sufficiently fruitful to repay any entry fee. Further, the data room VOI can be compared with the VOI for visits to various data rooms and exploration blocks.
Thus advantageously, the preferred system allows interested companies to estimate the VOI of visiting a data room to obtain more information about an exploration block before entering the room, even for data rooms that have no historical precedent. Moreover, the present invention has application to reducing the inherent complexity given the intractable number of variables and assumptions involved in the estimation. A preferred system leverages human judgment, e.g., from a company agent, to assimilate and synthesize many low-level measurements into simple information variables. The preferred system then applies mathematical formalism of VOI to those probability estimates to project a value for deciding whether to go forward with a data room visit or visits.
While the invention has been described in terms of preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art will recognize that the invention can be practiced with modification within the spirit and scope of the appended claims. It is intended that all such variations and modifications fall within the scope of the appended claims. Examples and drawings are, accordingly, to be regarded as illustrative rather than restrictive.
