The present invention relates to a method and system to predict and alert a user to navigational options and to predict user intentions.
Despite smart phones and global positioning system (GPS) devices being somewhat ubiquitous, the use of such devices in a navigational regime is generally limited to navigation to destinations that are unfamiliar to the user. While making trips that are familiar or often traveled, the user will tend to just navigate by memory and avoid the unneeded complication of manual address entrance. Unfortunately, in neglecting to enter his destination, the user is often unable to take advantage of some of the other features that a smart phone or GPS device would be able to provide. These other features include, but are not limited to, presentations of alternative route selection options due to an accident or slow traffic, indications that his destination is closed for business or has an extended wait time and information related to an availability of parking near the destination.
While certain mundane solutions do exist for these problems, such as the user being able to call his destination in advance to make sure they are open and have no wait time, the user being able to listen to the radio on the way to the destination in hopes that a traffic report will come through and the user's willingness to park in a sub-par location, these all require some sort of overt user action which is what the user was attempting to avoid in the first place by not inputting his destination into the smart phone or GPS device.
As an example, EP 1969313 describes a navigation system in which contextual information such as time of day, general travel patterns and other criteria are used to determine where a person is likely to go and then prompts the user to confirm one of the suggestions. At the time that a user selects a destination from this pre-populated list, the device functions as a normal GPS with all of the features currently possessed by such a device. Unfortunately, this solution is once again a “pull” infrastructure solution much like a normal GPS and it can be assumed that if the user were unwilling to enter a destination in the first place, it's probably no more likely that having a pre-populated list of destinations would cause them to choose a destination.
According to one embodiment of the present invention, a computer implemented prediction and alert method automatically executable by a processing unit of a portable computing device. The method includes determining that an event begins from event information of the portable computing device, generating a list of likely event results based on current conditions of the event and historical data, alerting a user to an event result problem for each likely event result in accordance with first and second determinations as the event information indicates that an event decision of the event is upcoming, removing unlikely event results from the list once the event decision is passed and repeating the generating, alerting and removing until only a single event result remains on the list.
According to another embodiment of the present invention, a portable computing device is provided. The portable computing device includes a global positioning system (GPS) unit, an output unit, a processing unit and a storage unit having historical data and executable instructions stored thereon. When executed, the executable instructions cause the processing unit to automatically determine that a trip begins from travel information obtained from the GPS unit, generate a list of likely destinations based on current conditions of the trip and the historical data, control the output unit to alert a user to a destination problem for each likely destination in accordance with first and second determinations as the travel information indicates that a route decision location of the trip is upcoming, remove unlikely destinations from the list once the route decision location is passed and repeat the generating, alerting and removing until only a single likely destination remains on the list.
According to another embodiment of the present invention, a vehicle is provided and includes a motive housing formed to define an interior configured to accommodate at least a user capable of driving the motive housing and a portable computing device mounted or installed within the interior. The portable computing device includes a global positioning system (GPS) unit, an output unit, a processing unit and a storage unit having historical data and executable instructions stored thereon. When executed, the executable instructions cause the processing unit to automatically determine that a trip begins from travel information obtained from the GPS unit, generate a list of likely destinations based on current conditions of the trip and the historical data, control the output unit to alert a user to a destination problem for each likely destination in accordance with first and second determinations as the travel information indicates that a route decision location of the trip is upcoming, remove unlikely destinations from the list once the route decision location is passed and repeat the generating, alerting and removing until only a single likely destination remains on the list.
Additional features and advantages are realized through the techniques of the present invention. Other embodiments and aspects of the invention are described in detail herein and are considered a part of the claimed invention. For a better understanding of the invention with the advantages and the features, refer to the description and to the drawings.
The subject matter which is regarded as the invention is particularly pointed out and distinctly claimed in the claims at the conclusion of the specification. The forgoing and other features, and advantages of the invention are apparent from the following detailed description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in which:
As will be described below, predictive push architecture is provided that allows for pertinent information about a route to be given to the user without the user having to manually enter a destination point. This allows for information that may affect the user's route-choosing decision to be transmitted to the user before the user would normally be able to obtain such information otherwise (i.e., when the user arrives at the actual impediment in force). The predictive push architecture uses a predictive probability algorithm to generate a list of potential destinations for the user at any given moment of the user's trip without a need for a user input destination or verification and an alert threshold that can be configured to provide warnings to the user at a last possible moment during his trip and to eliminate the presentation of unnecessary warnings.
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The GPS unit 21 may be disposed in signal communication with one or both of a satellite-based GPS system and a DVD-based system that can provide the GPS unit 21 with information identifying a current location of the portable computing device 20 and, in some cases, with additional vector information identifying a direction and speed of travel of the portable computing device 20. The output unit 22 may include a display device that can display textual or graphical information to a user, an audio device that can output audible information to the user and a haptic device that can generate haptic outputs (e.g., vibrations) that can be heard and felt by the user. The processing unit 23 may be provided as a central processing or computing unit that is operably coupled to the GPS unit 21, the output unit 22 and the storage unit 24 and thereby disposed to issue operational commands to at least the GPS unit 21 and the output unit 22. The storage unit 24 includes a first storage location 241 having historical user trip data stored thereon and a second storage location 242 having executable instructions stored thereon.
When executed, the executable instructions cause the processing unit 23 to automatically perform a computer implemented prediction and alert method. With reference to
In accordance with embodiments and, with reference to
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Subsequently, as the travel information indicates that the car passes through and by the intersection at operation 506, operations 304 and 305 are executed by the processing unit 23 such that unlikely destinations are removed from the list by the processing unit at operation 507. Then, the generating, alerting and removing of operations 302, 303 and 304 are repeated at operation 305 until only a single likely destination remains on the list at operation 508. Once only a single likely destination remains on the list, tradition route guidance commences at operations 509 and 510.
In accordance with embodiments and, as shown in
The process begins with the processing unit 23 accessing at operation 701 available information relating to problems that may exist with respect to the likely destinations on the list (e.g., that the likely destination is closed if the likely destination is a business) and/or information relating to problems on the route leading to the likely destinations (e.g., that there is traffic caused by an accident on the road leading to the business). The process then continues with the processing unit 23 determining at operation 702 that a destination problem exists at one of the likely destinations in accordance with the available information. In an event that no destination problem exists, the processing unit 23 does not control the output unit 22 to alert the user at operation 703. However, in an event that a destination problem is determined to exist, the processing unit 23 attempts at operation 704 to generate substitute destinations (in the case of the likely destination being a business that is closed, the substitute destinations would be similar businesses close by the closed business) or alternative routes (in the case of traffic impeding a primary route to the likely destination).
At operation 705, the processing unit 23 determines whether substitute destinations exist or whether alternative routes are available. In an event that the processing unit 23 is able to generate suitable substitute destinations or alternative routes, the processing unit 23 determines that the upcoming route decision location is not a last route decision location before the one of the likely destinations and thus does not control the output unit 22 to issue an alert at operation 706. However, at operation 707, in an event that the processing unit 23 is not able to generate suitable substitute destinations or alternative routes, the processing unit 23 determines that the upcoming route decision location is a last route decision location before the one of the likely destinations. In this case, the processing unit 23 controls the output unit 22 to issue the alert because the upcoming route decision location is judged to be the user's last opportunity to avoid the destination problem.
In accordance with embodiments and, as shown in
The process initiates for each likely destination on the list (see operation 800) once the route decision location is passed whereupon the processing unit 23 determines at operation 801 whether any one of the now untaken routes to each likely destination on the list is a preferred or only reasonable route to that destination. If a result of that determination indicates that there is no longer a route to the destination that makes sense (e.g., because it requires an illegal U-turn or substantial out of the way driving), the processing unit 23 removes the destination from the list at operation 802. On the other hand, if reasonable or sensible routes to the destination remain, the processing unit 23 takes no removal action at operation 803.
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The decision nodes and trigger nodes are evaluated periodically. As time elapses, additional information is learned about the analytic problem and could influence both the criteria and triggers at the decision node and trigger node. If the criteria at a decision node determines that one or more results is no longer possible, the criteria, decision nodes and the results will be removed from future consideration. If the trigger at a trigger node determines that the solution to the analytic problem must be revealed, then a subset or the entire list of available results could be revealed. These results will be prioritized. In one embodiment, these results could be prioritized or subsets could be selected using the probabilistic model that is used in existing analytic solutions. For example, any result with more than 80% chance will be shown to the user in a prioritized list based on its probability.
This generalized methodology can be applied to the GPS travel scenarios explained above and in other similar analytic problems.
The process begins with a recognition that, as the portable computing device 20 within the vehicle 10 approaches an intersection or navigational decision point N1, the historical travel data and other variables (e.g., the current location 401, the current vector 402, etc.) indicate that 6 likely destinations D1-D6 exist. These likely destinations D1-D6 may be identified by the processing unit 23 as being potential destinations in that they each have a respective actual destination probability that exceeds a predefined threshold in accordance with the current conditions, the historical data and the user information. That is, if the predefined threshold is 10%, each of the likely destinations D1-D6 may be the actual destination of a given trip corresponding to given current conditions, given historical data and given user information 10% of the time or more. Any other historical destinations appearing less than 10% of the time will be ignored. Of course, it is to be understood that the predefined threshold could be set as any percentage and can be modifiable or updateable by the user.
In accordance with embodiments, for each destination, D, P(D) is a probability of the user traveling to destination D and is calculated based on the historical data among other factors. A(D), on the other hand, is a functional description of a need for an alert for each given destination. Thus, A(Dx)=Cx*P(Dx)/(C1*P(D1)+(C2*P(D2)+ . . . +Cn*P(Dn)), where Dn are all the possible destinations from a given time forward and Cx, 1, 2, . . . , n is a constant derived for each destination D.
Once the portable computing device 20 moves beyond intersection or navigational decision point N1 and approaches intersection or navigational decision point N2, likely destinations D5 and D6 are determined to be unlikely destinations as will be described below and are thus removed from the list, which now includes only likely destinations D1-D4. Similarly, once the portable computing device 20 moves beyond intersection or navigational decision point N2 and approaches intersection or navigational decision point N3, likely destination D4 is determined to be an unlikely destination and is thus removed from the list, which now includes only likely destinations D1-D3. The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used herein, the singular forms “a”, “an” and “the” are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. It will be further understood that the terms “comprises” and/or “comprising,” when used in this specification, specify the presence of stated features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one more other features, integers, steps, operations, element components, and/or groups thereof.
The corresponding structures, materials, acts, and equivalents of all means or step plus function elements in the claims below are intended to include any structure, material, or act for performing the function in combination with other claimed elements as specifically claimed. The description of the present invention has been presented for purposes of illustration and description, but is not intended to be exhaustive or limited to the invention in the form disclosed. Many modifications and variations will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art without departing from the scope and spirit of the invention. The embodiment was chosen and described in order to best explain the principles of the invention and the practical application, and to enable others of ordinary skill in the art to understand the invention for various embodiments with various modifications as are suited to the particular use contemplated.
The flow diagrams depicted herein are just one example. There may be many variations to this diagram or the steps (or operations) described therein without departing from the spirit of the invention. For instance, the steps may be performed in a differing order or steps may be added, deleted or modified. All of these variations are considered a part of the claimed invention.
While the preferred embodiment to the invention had been described, it will be understood that those skilled in the art, both now and in the future, may make various improvements and enhancements which fall within the scope of the claims which follow. These claims should be construed to maintain the proper protection for the invention first described.