Patent Application
20050087110
The present application is based on a Japanese Patent Application No. 2002-333526 filed Nov. 18, 2002, and the content of the Japanese application is incorporated herein by reference.
This invention relates to a reforestation project system and a reforestation project program, capable of devising and evaluating the reforestation project.
Conventionally, it has been known to device a reforestation (hereinafter, the term “reforestation” means both reforestation and afforestation) project by making a reforestation simulation using a single tree type. Since reforestation process takes many tens of years from planting to cutting, a simulation is a useful means for optimizing a reforestation project program. Furthermore, in natural forests or artificial plantations of needle-leaf trees, a quantitative thinning method is known, which makes it possible to estimate the state of the plantations and an accumulated amount of trees, by managing the forest so as to satisfy a predetermined relationship between the number of remaining trees per unit area and the age of the trees. (Japanese Unexamined Patent Application, First Publication No. 5-111335).
On the other hand, reforestation is recently attracting attention as a CDM. CDM is an abbreviation of “Clean Development Mechanism”. CDM is a mechanism, in which a developed country, which has a target amount for reducing the discharge amount of greenhouse effect gas, acquires the amount of discharged gas reduced in developing countries and uses the resultant amount of reduced discharge as a discharge frame in its own country. The reforestation is one candidate among a plurality of CDM projects (e.g. “Clean Development Mechanism Countdown: New Countermeasures for Warming, Widening Business Opportunities” Nikkei Ecology October 2002, Nikkei Shinbunsha, 8 Sep. 2002, Vol. 40, pp. 98-101).
Since the aim of reforestation is to sell trees that have been cut at a high price, the aim may be attained when trees that are easy to grow and trees that can be sold at a high price are planted over a wide area. However, since the market price of wood fluctuates depending on balance between supply and demand, the market price for a certain tree is not necessary high at the time of harvest of the wood. However, if the harvest time is delayed until the wood prices becomes high, there is a risk of degrading the wood which may results in degradation of the market price. In general, trees that are traded at high process generally have risks such as not growing sufficiently due to insect damages or the like. Moreover, it is necessary to devise a reforestation project so as to plant appropriate trees which match to the particular environment, and in addition, it is necessary to devise a project taking adverse effects into consideration which may cause bad influences on the surrounding environment by reforestation.
While reforestation is attracting attention as an effective measure against global warming, in order to implement reforestation for preventing global warming, it is necessary to devise a detailed reforestation project program so as to maximize the amount of carbon that accumulates in the trees as they grow. In order to attain the above-described objects, it is important to precisely identify the conditions of proposed reforestation site, and the amount of carbon accumulated in the proposed reforestation site, and, based on the amount of accumulated carbon, the proposed reforestation site must be evaluated and determined whether the proposed site or site is the proper site for reforestation. Conventionally, it was difficult to determine the reforestation site by the conventional method and, the conventional method is not appropriate for constructing a reforestation program that can maximize the carbon accumulation for preventing global warming.
It is an object of the present invention to provide a reforestation project system and a reforestation project program that can devise and evaluate a reforestation project in accordance with the aim of the reforestation.
A reforestation project system of the present invention comprising, a computer server capable of communicating through internet with terminals installed in sites where reforestation is carried out, for devising and evaluating a reforestation project, a project database for storing reforestation projects, a tree-type database, in which tree-type data for each tree-type are stored, a condition information-collecting means for collecting tree diameters at a breast-height and tree heights within local regions in a plurality of reforestation boundary sites input from said terminals, a reforestation site determining means for determining a reforestation site by calculating carbon dioxide absorption amounts by a predetermined equations at each reforestation candidate sites from the tree diameters at the breast-height and tree heights in said local regions, and selecting a reforestation candidate site having a determined carbon dioxide absorption amount that is smaller than a first threshold, a project planning means for calculating a profit when planting area in said reforestation site and the tree-types stored in said tree-type database are respectively changed, selecting a tree-type and the planting area that can obtain the greatest profit, and storing the selected tree-type, planting area, and estimated values for growth change of the trees, as reforestation project information in said project database; and a project output means for displaying said reforestation project information, stored in said project database, at said terminals.
A reforestation project system of the present invention comprising, a computer server capable of communicating through the internet with terminals installed in sites where reforestation is carried out, and devising and evaluating a reforestation project; a project database for storing obtained reforestation projects, a tree-type database, in which tree-type data for each tree-type are stored, a condition information-collecting means for collecting the tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights of all trees within each local region in a plurality of reforestation candidate sites input from said terminals, a reforestation site determining means for performing a predetermined calculation to determine the average carbon dioxide absorption amount per unit volume at the present point in the reforestation candidate site, from the tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights that were received, selecting a reforestation candidate site having a determined average carbon dioxide absorption amount that is smaller than a first threshold, deeming this reforestation candidate site to be the reforestation site, and outputting the tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights of the trees in the reforestation candidate site, and information for identifying the reforestation candidate site, a first calculating process that inputs said tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights, and calculates the average diameter and average tree height at each tree age, a second calculating process that determines tree number distribution and tree height distribution for each tree diameter by calculation, a third calculating process that determines log volume of each diameter per unit area, based on said tree number distribution and tree height distribution for each tree diameter, by calculation, a fourth calculating process that multiplies the reforestation site area by said log volume, thereby determining the log volume of the entire reforestation site, and multiplies this log volume of the entire reforestation site by a log price for each diameter, thereby determining an economic value for the entire reforestation site, a project devising means for repeatedly executing the first, second, third, and fourth calculating process for each tree-type stored in said tree-type database so as to determine the economic value of the entire reforestation site in the case where the reforestation site volume has been changed, selecting a tree-type and reforestation site volume that obtain the highest economic value determined by said fourth calculating process, and storing the selected tree-type, planting area, and estimated values for growth change of the trees, as reforestation project information in said project database and a project output means for displaying said reforestation project information, stored in said project database, at said terminals.
The reforestation project system according to the above aspect, further comprising an indirect effect memory means, in which is stored beforehand information relating to indirect effects of each environment of the reforestation site and the scale of the reforestation, obtained by prior investigation, a risk memory means, in which is stored beforehand risk information of each environment of the reforestation site and the scale of the reforestation, obtained by prior investigation, an indirect effect estimating means, which reads a project value of indirect effects corresponding to the scale of the reforestation project and the reforestation site, read from said project database, from said indirect effect memory means, and stores it in said project database; and a risk estimating means, which reads a project value of risks corresponding to the scale of the reforestation project and the reforestation site, read from said project database, from said risk memory means, and stores it in said project database.
The reforestation project system according to the third aspect, further comprising an indirect effect collecting means, which receives and collects condition information relating to indirect effect estimates, input from said terminal, a risk collecting means, which receives and collects condition information relating to risk estimates, input from said terminal, a project accomplishment status determining means, which receives condition information, indirect effect information, and risk information, respectively from the condition information-collecting means, the indirect effect information collecting means, and the risk information collecting means, compares them with estimate values and project values that are stored in said project database, and calculates a proportion of conditions with respect to said project; and a project review means, which, when said reforestation project is deemed incomplete from the proportion of conditions with respect to said project, re-devises said reforestation project, and stores it in said project database, said indirect effect estimating means and risk estimating means re-estimating indirect effect and risk based on the reviewed project that was stored in said project database.
The reforestation project system according to the first aspect, wherein a second threshold smaller than said first threshold is set, and, in the case where the amount of carbon dioxide obtained is smaller than said first threshold and greater than said second threshold, the present secondary forest is cut and deemed a reforestation site for new reforestation.
A reforestation project program, operated on a reforestation project system that comprises a computer server capable of communicating through the internet with terminals installed in sites where reforestation is carried out, and devising and evaluating a reforestation project, the computer server being comprised of a project database for storing reforestation projects and a tree-type database, which tree-type data for each tree-type are stored in, the reforestation project system allowing a computer to execute a condition information-collecting process for collecting tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights within local regions in a plurality of reforestation candidate sites input from said terminals, a reforestation site determining process of determining a reforestation site by performing a predetermined calculation to determine carbon dioxide absorption amounts at the present point in the reforestation candidate sites from the tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights of trees in said local regions, and selecting a reforestation candidate site having a determined carbon dioxide absorption amount that is smaller than a first threshold, a project devising process of performing a predetermined calculation to determine profit when planting area in said reforestation site and the tree-types stored in said tree-type database are respectively changed, selecting a tree-type and planting area that can obtain the greatest profit, and storing the selected tree-type, planting area, and estimated values for growth change of the trees, as reforestation project information in said project database; and a project output process of displaying said reforestation project information, stored in said project database, at said terminals.
A forestation project program, operated by a reforestation project system that comprises a computer server capable of communicating through the internet with terminals installed in sites where reforestation is carried out, and devising and evaluating a reforestation project, the computer server being comprised of a project database for storing reforestation projects and a tree-type database, which tree-type data for each tree-type are stored in, the reforestation project system allowing a computer to execute a condition information-collecting process of collecting the tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights of all trees within each local region in a plurality of reforestation candidate sites input from said terminals, a reforestation site determining process of performing a predetermined calculation to determine the average carbon dioxide absorption amount per unit volume at the present point in the reforestation candidate site, from the tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights of all trees that were received, selecting a reforestation candidate site having a determined average carbon dioxide absorption amount that is smaller than a first threshold, deeming this reforestation candidate site to be the reforestation site, and outputting the tree diameters at the breast height and heights of all trees in the reforestation candidate site, and information for identifying the reforestation candidate site, a first calculating process of inputting said tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights, and calculating the average diameter and average tree height at each tree age, a second calculating process of determining tree number distribution and tree height distribution by inputting tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights by calculation, a third calculating process of determining a log volume of each diameter per unit area, based on said tree number distribution and tree height distribution for each tree diameter by calculation, a fourth calculating process of multiplying the reforestation site area by said log volume, thereby determining the log volume of the entire reforestation site, and multiplying this log volume of the entire reforestation site by a log price for each diameter, thereby determining a economic value for the entire reforestation site, a project devising process of repeatedly executing the first, second, third, and fourth calculating process for each tree-type stored in said tree-type database so as to determine the economic value of the entire reforestation site in the case where the reforestation site volume has been changed, selecting a tree-type and reforestation site volume that obtain the highest economic value determined by said fourth calculating process, and storing the selected tree-type, planting area, and estimated values for growth change of the trees, as reforestation project information in said project database; and a project output process of displaying said reforestation project information, stored in said project database, at said terminals.
The reforestation project program according to the present invention, further allowing a computer to execute an indirect effect memory process of storing beforehand information relating to indirect effects of each environment of the reforestation site and the scale of the reforestation, obtained by prior investigation, a risk memory process of storing beforehand risk information of each environment of the reforestation site and the scale of the reforestation, obtained by prior investigation, an indirect effect estimating process of reading a project value of indirect effects corresponding to the scale of the reforestation project and the reforestation site, read from said project database, from said indirect effect memory means, and storing it in said project database; and a risk estimating process of reading a project value of risks corresponding to the scale of the reforestation project and the reforestation site, read from said project database, from said risk memory means, and storing it in said project database.
The reforestation project program according to the above aspect, further allowing a computer to execute an indirect effect collecting process of receiving and collecting condition information relating to indirect effect estimates, input from said terminal, a risk collecting process of receiving and collecting condition information relating to risk estimates, input from said terminal, a project accomplishment status determining process of receiving condition information, indirect effect information, and risk information, respectively in the condition information-collecting process, the indirect effect information collecting process, and the risk information collecting process, comparing them with estimate values and project values that are stored in said project database, and calculating a proportion of conditions with respect to said project; and a project review process of re-devising said reforestation project and storing it in said project database when said reforestation project is deemed incomplete from the proportion of conditions with respect to said project, said indirect effect estimating process and risk estimating process re-estimating indirect effect and risk based on the reviewed project that was stored in said project database.
The reforestation project program according to the above project, wherein a second threshold smaller than said first threshold is set, and, in the case where the amount of carbon dioxide obtained is smaller than said first threshold and greater than said second threshold, the present secondary forest is cut and deemed a reforestation site for new reforestation.
According to the above-described constitution, the reforestation project is planned based on the present condition of the reforestation site, while estimating indirect effects and risks, thereby enabling the reforestation project to be devised easily. Further, while executing the project, the accomplishment status of the project is assessed based on condition information, indirect effect information, and risk information, and the project is reviewed based on these assessments, enabling the reforestation project to be reliably executed.
A preferred embodiment of the reforestation project system according to the present invention will be explained with reference to the attached figures.
Reference numeral 11 represents a present condition information-collecting section for collecting information relating to present condition of each reforestation site, input from the reforestation site terminals 3. Reference numeral 12 represents an amount of accumulated carbon determining section, which, prior to commencing reforestation, numerically expresses and defines present conditions in the reforestation sites based on information that was collected by the present condition information-collecting section 11. In the following explanation, amounts of accumulated carbon are determined from a volume of the trees, and are used as an index for showing conditions in the reforestation sites. The method for calculating the amount of accumulated carbon will be explained later. Reference numeral 13 represents a memory for storing an amount of accumulated carbon, which is determined by the amount of accumulated carbon determining section 12. Reference numeral 14 represents a planting tree-type determining section that determines the type of tree (tree-type) to be planted in a reforestation site about to be reforested, based on the amount of accumulated carbon stored in the amount of accumulated carbon memory 13. Reference numeral 15 represents a tree-type database, which defines beforehand information relating to tree-types and trees, and is consulted by the planting tree-type determining section 14 when determining a tree-type. Reference numeral 16 represents a project devising section, which devises a project for reforestation by using simulation based on the tree-type determined by the planting tree-type determining section 14 and the amount of accumulated carbon stored in the amount of accumulated carbon memory 13. Reference numeral 17 represents a project database, which stores projects that were devised in the project devising section 16.
Reference numeral 18 represents an indirect effect estimating section, which estimates possible indirect effects when reforestation is to be implemented based on a project stored in the project database 17 and stores the estimation result in the project database 17. Reference numeral 19 represents a risk estimating section, which estimates possible risk when reforestation is to be implemented based on a project stored in the project database 17 and stores the estimation result in the project database 17. Reference numeral 20 represents a project output section, which outputs projects, indirect effects, and risks, stored in the project database 17, through a display (not shown) and the internet 4 to the reforestation site terminals 3. Reference numeral 21 represents an indirect effect information collecting section, which collects information relating to indirect effects of forestation around reforestation sites, input from the reforestation site terminals 3. Reference numeral 22 represents a risk information collecting section, which collects information relating to risks of forestation, input from the reforestation site terminals 3. Reference numeral 23 represents a project accomplishment status assessment section, which receives condition information, indirect effect information, and risk information, respectively from the present condition information-collecting section 11, the indirect effect information collecting section 21, and the risk information collecting section 22, and, based on this information, assesses the accomplishment status of a project stored in the project database 17. Reference numeral 24 represents a project review section, which reviews a project based on the accomplishment status determination result in the project accomplishment status assessment section 23, and stores the reviewed project in the project database 17.
Subsequently, an operation of devising and evaluating a reforestation project will be explained with reference to
Next, the present condition information-collecting section 11 receives the forest investigation result information, and sends it to the amount of accumulated carbon determining section 12. Upon receiving the information, the amount of accumulated carbon determining section 12 determines the amount of accumulated carbon by an estimation using the following calculation equation (step S1).
The trunk volume V (m3) of each tree is calculated by V=dbh2×h×0.3. Here, dbh is the tree diameters at the breast height (m), and h is the tree height (m). Next, the trunk weight Wtdy (ton) of each tree is calculated from the trunk volume V by Wtdry=V×ρ0. Here, ρ0 is the specific gravity of a tree in a state where it has been dried at a total dry specific gravity temperature of 100 to 105° C. until its weight change stops. Then, the trunk weight Wtdy that was determined is multiplied by a carbon content rate of 0.5, and further multiplied by an enlargement coefficient of 1.6, to determine a total amount of accumulated carbon including branches, leaves, and roots. The amount of carbon thus obtained is the carbon amount for a tree. The amount of accumulated carbon is calculated for all the trees, and the amounts of accumulated carbon thus obtained are added together to obtain an amount of accumulated carbon for one local region. This calculation is performed for all the local regions A1 to A7, and an average amount of accumulated carbon per unit area Ct (Cton/ha) is calculated. This value corresponds to an amount of accumulated carbon in the reforestation site A0 (average amount of accumulated carbon per unit area). Since the amount of accumulated carbon obtained by the above process is proportional to the amount of carbon dioxide that is absorbed by existing trees so far, the amount of accumulated carbon may be converted to an amount of carbon dioxide absorbed so far by a unit area by multiplying a predetermined coefficient to the amount of the accumulated carbon.
Next, the amount of accumulated carbon determining section 12 compares the amount of obtained accumulated carbon with a predetermined threshold, and classifies the reforestation candidate site into one of three types of reforestation sites (a) to (c), and, in accordance with the classification result of the reforestation site, a site of deteriorated secondary forest where the amount of accumulated carbon is zero is selected as the reforestation site.
(a) Deteriorated Secondary Forest (Forest in a Bush State)
When the amount of obtained accumulated carbon 0.6 to 9.6 Cton/ha, the reforestation candidate site is classified as a deteriorated secondary forest. Since this state cannot be expected to increase an amount of accumulated carbon, and this region is a region that need to be newly forested.
(b) Secondary Forest with a Large Amount of Accumulated Carbon
When the amount of obtained accumulated carbon is greater than 9.6 Cton/ha, this reforestation candidate site is classified as a secondary forest with a large amount of accumulated carbon. Since a sufficient amount of accumulated carbon can be expected even at present, and therefore, this forest must be preserved in its present condition, and there is no room for reforestation project.
(c) Zero Accumulated Carbon Area
When the amount of obtained accumulated carbon is less than 0.6 Cton/ha, the reforestation candidate site is classified as site having zero accumulated carbon. This state means that this site must be newly reforested.
Next, the amount of accumulated carbon determining section 12 stores the amount of accumulated carbon that was determined and the reforestation site class obtained by the site classification process in the memory 13, and notifies the planting tree-type determining section 14 that the amount of accumulated carbon determining process has ended. Based on the amount of accumulated carbon and the reforestation site class determined by the reforestation candidate sites classification process, sites which are defined as the deteriorated secondary forest and are defined as the zero accumulated carbon area are determined as a reforestation site where reforestation should be carried out.
Upon receiving the above notification, the planting tree-type determining section 14 reads the amount of accumulated carbon and the reforestation site class that is stored in the memory 13, and selects and determines the type of tree to be planted in each reforestation site (step S2). The tree-type is determined by retrieving the tree-type data stored in the tree-type database 15. The tree-type data stored in the tree-type database 15 defines “standard amount of growth”, “harvest period”, “standard timber value”, “density when planting”, “density when thinning”, “level of risk”, “soil suitable for planting”, “weather suitable for planting”, and “average carbon amount”. The planting tree-type determining section 14 retrieves the tree-type database 15, and selects and determines a tree-type that coincides with the required amount of accumulated carbon and the reforestation site class. The planting tree-type determining section 14 notifies the project devising section 16 of the tree-type that was selected and determined.
Subsequently, the project devising section 16 devises a project for reforestation (step S3). The project is devised based on foresting and harvest simulation results, shown below.
By carrying out simulations of harvest (main thinning) and reforestation after planting a plurality of tree-types having different amount of growth rates and harvest periods, the reforestation project which is optimized for the reforestation purpose is determined by the following steps (1) to (10).
(1) First, growth rates for average tree height and average tree diameters at the breast height are estimated based on measurement data of existing forests, and a relationship between the age of a forest and density reduction of the number of standing trees is estimated and a plan for controlling density of trees in a site is established in accordance with the age of the forest after tree planting. The growth rate is estimated based on an approximation of a growth curve.
When the number of tree-types is n, growth in the diameter (Di) and average height (Hi) for a tree-type, number i, can be approximated using the Mitcherlich equation, which is widely used as a growth curve, as follows.
Hi=mi·(1−L·hi exp (Ki·t))
Di=Mi·(1−L·di exp (Ki·t))
where mi, L·hi, ki, L·di, and ki are constants, and t is the age of the forest. It is possible to use existing data which are closest to the growth curve, and it is also possible to use conventional growth curves, known as Rodischick curve, Gonpeltz curve, or the like. However, constants of the growth curve are not limited to these, and it is acceptable to use any tables in which foregrade, average height, and average tree diameter at the breast height, are arranged correspondingly.
Furthermore, it is known that density control of forests affects the growth rate of the tree diameter, and the diameter decreases when the density is high and increases when the density is low. However, under normal forest management, it is possible to approximate the diameter growth rate by the diameter growth curve described above. It is desirable to obtain tables showing relationships between tree age and density for various tree-types.
(2) Next, relationships between the minimum tree diameter, standard deviation of the tree diameter, and average diameter determined at a given tree age, and the like, are determined, and a tree number distribution at each diameter grade is determined by using appropriate model equations representing the tree diameter distribution. In order to determine the diameter distribution based on the average diameter, a distribution function must be determined. It is desirable to determine a distribution function which is close to the actual diameter distribution. It is possible to adopt a distribution function which follows the normal distribution when trees are young, but the Weibull distribution is often used for representing a diameter distribution of trees in a normal forest.
When d represents a diameter at breast height, and x=d−a (a: constant, x>0), the Weibull distribution is expressed as
f(x)=1−exp (−(x/b)c)(where b and c are constants).
Here, parameters a, b, and c are called a position parameter, a scale parameter, and a shape parameter, respectively. As the position parameter a, the minimum diameter is normally used. When it is assumed as distribution properties that the average value of distribution μ (not average diameter) of distribution is expressed by μ=D−a, and the dispersion is expressed by σ2, μ and σ2 can be represented by the following equations.
μ=bΛ(1+1/c) . . . (i)
σ2=b2{Λ(1+2/c)−Λ2(1+1/c)}. . . (ii)
In the above equations, since
D is the average diameter, and a, b, and c, are parameters. If values of μ and σ2 are obtained, the value c is determined for a certain value of a by the following equation,
and the value of b is determined from equation (i). That is, once the average value, the dispersion, and the value of a are known, the shape of the distribution can be determined by calculating the values of b and c. A function expressed by
is called a Λ(lamda) function, and, since it is difficult to solve the above equation by mathematical analysis, the value is obtained by the following approximate equation.
Λ(s)=1−0.57710166(s−1)+0.98585399(s−1)2−0.87642182(s−1)3+0.8328212(s−1)4−0.5684729(s−1)5+0.25482049(s−1)6+0.0514993(s−1)7.
Some work is required to determine the parameters a, b, and c, which determine the shape of the distribution. The average diameter D and the average tree height H at a tree age of t are known quantities, and the standard deviation a and the minimum diameter a can be calculated based on the average tree diameter D.
When the standard deviation a of the tree diameter is determined from the average tree diameter D, the standard deviation ca can be obtained by regressive analysis from the average diameter, because it is known that there is a linear relationship between the average diameter and the standard deviation for a plurality of artificial plantation. That is, the relationship between the standard deviation σ and the average tree diameter D can be expressed by the approximation σ=m·D+n (where m and n are constants). Therefore, values for m and n can be determined from investigations regarding existing reforestation sites.
The standard deviation can be obtained not only by the primary regression analysis as described above, but also it can be determined from various relationships obtained by examinations of various sites.
In forests where the thinning have been implemented, since the suppressed trees are removed, consequently the minimum diameter is comparatively large; in forests, however, where thinning have not been implemented, many suppressed trees remain and the minimum diameter is small. Although the minimum diameter may affect on the average diameter D, the shape of the tree size distribution, that is, the distribution coefficient can be determined even when the average diameter D is set at a constant value.
Once the shape of the distribution has been determined, the area of one diameter grade ranging from a given diameter di to d+1 is obtained from the distribution coefficient, the number distribution of the diameter grade is determined. That is, the tree number distribution for each diameter grade per one ha is obtained by multiplying the number of trees per area (trees/ha) to determine the tree number distribution for each diameter grade per one ha.
(3) Subsequently, an appropriate equation indicating the relationship between the tree diameter distribution and the tree heights for each diameter grade at a given tree age is determined. Generally, since there is a correlation between the tree diameter and the tree height, it is possible to estimate the tree height from the tree diameter by applying an appropriate correlation equation, which is called a tree height curve. Moreover, it is known from experience that the tree height curve (including a linear relationship) bends at higher tree age region and becomes less steep as the tree age increases. Although many types of estimation equations have been elaborated, it is reasonable to express the tree height curve such an equation as 1/H=A+B/D. Here, H is the tree height, D is the diameter, and A and B are constants. With regard to A and B, it is necessary to carry out investigations of existing forests to establish a method for determining these constants in advance from the average diameter (D) and the average tree height (H). Results of investigations regarding many plots of Japanese pine, cedar, tropical melina, and the like, reveal that the relationship between H and A has a following relationship.
A=a′+b′/H(where a′ and b′ are constants)
It is known that an estimated value of B can be obtained with high accuracy from multiple regression analysis between A or B and the average tree height (H), and the value of B can be obtained by the following equation.
B=a″/D+b″/H+C″ (where a″, b″, and C″ are constants).
Therefore, A and B can be estimated from the average tree height (H) and the average diameter (D). It is possible, therefore, to obtain the tree diameter distribution as well as the tree height distribution for a given tree diameter.
(4) Subsequently, using a standard trunk shape, a top-diameter, timber length, and the base-diameter can be calculated, assuming that cut trees have been sawn into logs.
The standard trunk shape is determined for each tree-type in accordance with the degree of tapering grade. However, since there is no big difference in the trunk shape for various tree types, one type of trunk shape can be selected as a standard size. It is convenient to approximate the trunk shape by n-dimensional curve for expressing the standard trunk shape, and a three-dimensional curve is normally sufficient to express the standard trunk shape. An example is shown below.
In order to standardize various tree shapes, the tree height is set 1 when a tree height is 1.3 m, a tree diameter at the breast height is set 1, and the top of the tree height is set as a point of origin (0,0), an the tree height is represented along the x-axis in the direction from the top toward to the root, and the tree outside diameter is represented as y-axis in the radial direction, and the tree shape is approximated by a three-dimensional curve as y=ax+bx2+cx3, which passes the point of origin (0,0) and the tree diameter at breast height (1,1).
That is, after harvest down a number of trees having different diameters and height, and tree height and tree diameters at the breast height are measured. The diameter at a given height is measured and the height xi, the diameter di, and D are plotted, yielding the following equations.
xi=hi/(H−1.3)
yi=di/D
where xi is the height at a position where the diameter was measured, di is the diameter at the height of hi, and D is the tree diameters at the breast height.
A three-dimensional curve is approximated from these values by the least square method. This three-dimensional curve represents the timber surface including bark.
(5) Next, a tree diameter distribution is obtained based on the relationship between the standard deviation of the tree diameter of a given tree age and the minimum tree diameter, and a tree height of a given diameter grade is obtained based on the above-described relationships, the log volume is determined in the case of cutting standing trees in a diameter grade, and the log volumes for all diameter grades are determined and all of the log volumes for every log diameter grade is estimated from the whole forest.
Since the tree height Hi for a tree diameter at the breast height Di is determined, the diameter of the log obtained by the cutting and timbering process can be determined from the standard trunk shape. That is, the standard trunk shape is multiplied by the tree height, and the diameter is multiplied by the tree diameters at the breast height, to determine the tree shape of this tree, and the diameter at a given height is determined by calculation. When it is assumed that a tree is cut according to a conventional method, for instance, into a logs of every four meters from the root, the diameter and timber volume can be calculated and the timber volume for a diameter grade is obtained by multiplying the number of trees per ha, and thereby a total volume of every tree diameter per area is obtained. At this time, since the diameter at a given height includes bark, the timber volume is calculated by removing the bark thickness. This calculation process is repeated from the minimum tree diameters at the breast height Dmin to the maximum tree diameters at the breast height Dmax, and the total timber volume per ha is obtained. By further multiplying this by the area, the total timber volume for each diameter for the whole forest can be determined. When calculating the whole price, since the price often differs according to the timber diameter, a timber volume and price are calculated for each diameter grade, and the total sale price for all the timber is calculated by adding every timber price for every diameter grade.
(6) Next, the economic value of the entire forest is determined by multiplying the log volume by the log price of each diameter grade.
(7) Next, the timber volume prior to thinning and the timber volume after thinning are calculated assuming that the average diameter does not change, the relationship between the shape of diameter distribution, diameter, and tree heights, is maintained, and the number of trees only changes before and after thinning.
Thinning is often carried out while growing the forest. The aim of thinning is to remove defective trees and hasten the growth of remaining trees, while simultaneously earning some intermediate income. A growth rate of tree diameter is usually good after thinning, although the amount of growth differs according to the tree type, topography of the land, soil, amount of rainfall, and the tree density after thinning; since these factors are not generally elucidated, the effects are determined by experimental tests. For convenience, the calculation is carried out assuming that trees with large and small diameters are thinned approximately evenly, or trees with large diameter side and trees with small diameter sides of either side of the distribution are thinned preponderantly, and also assuming that the average diameter does not change after thinning, and only the standing tree density is reduced. The timber volume by thinning is assumed as that the timber volume is caused by the difference of the number of trees after thinning.
(8) Next, it is assumed that the timber volume obtained by thinning is the tree volume corresponding to trees having the average diameter and the average tree height of standing trees, and all timbers obtained by thinning are shipped. Main timbers are obtained by cutting standing trees for thinning and all of the timber volumes is assumed to be shipped totally.
(9) Next, a growth simulation is carried out by repeating from the growth rate with age. This simulation is applied to a plurality of tree-types, and estimation is obtained for the growth of the forest volume in terms of the timber volume and the price as the timber volume of the reforestation site. Consequently, the average tree height, average diameter, distribution of diameter and tree heights, timber volume, and sales price, can be obtained. Even when the tree-types are different, the simulation can be equally calculated by the same equation by only changing the value of the equation depending on the tree-type. That is, a growth simulation for a reforestation site that includes a plurality of tree-types can be calculated by combining the amount of cut timbers and the sales price for each tree-type.
(10) Finally, when a plurality of tree-types are grown in a region having a certain area, for instance ten-thousand ha, by repeating the sequences of planting, thinning, harvest, and re-planting, it is possible to select a combination of tree-types and the planting area, in order to obtain the maximum profit after comparing various conditions such as tree-types, planting areas and the continuity of obtaining the profit.
The planting and harvest plan can be established by linear programming method that will maximizes the profit after the cost has been subtracted from sales. For example, a project can be established whereby n tree-types are planting in a site of no standing trees having a reforestation target area of 10000 ha, with an operating period of sixty years, divided into twelve periods of five years, and, after the harvest (cutting all trees), one out of n types is selected and reforestation of such a tree-type is carried out.
At this time, a combination is searched that maximizes the target variables by linear programming method.
ΣΣΣ{Bi,k·Vi,k·Si,j,k+BTi,k·BRi,k·Xi,j,k−Pi,j·Si,j,k−Hi,j·Vi,j}
where, Bi, k: timber price per m3 achieved by main-harvest tree-type i at an age grade k($/m3),
Moreover, a variety of limiting equations are generally attached to the above. For example,
When the profit is above a fixed value, priority is placed on factors other than the profit. For example, a carbon fixed amount based on reforestation is provisionally calculated, and the priority is given on the carbon fixed amount when profit is above the fixed value. Furthermore, when trading of carbon fixed amounts is possible, income corresponding to the carbon fixed amount should be added to the profit. Here, the carbon fixed amount is the increase in the carbon accumulation amount, with respect to the carbon accumulation amount that is used as a reference value prior to reforestation, as the result of implementing reforestation in a predetermined period, and, in this predetermined period, the carbon fixed amount is proportional to the carbon dioxide that has been fixed due to the absorption by trees in a predetermined period. The carbon fixed amount is calculated by subtracting the carbon accumulation amount at the start of the calculating period from the carbon accumulation amount at the end of the calculating period, or by determining the total absorption amount of CO2 in each year within the target site.
By carrying out this simulation, the tree-type and planting area in each reforestation site is determined, the tree-type and planting area in each reforestation site is determined as the reforestation project, and the project devising section 16 stores the devised project in the project database 17. Furthermore, the reforestation devising period (normally thirty years) is divided by the project devising section 16 (e.g. into thirty sections), and the growth change of trees in each divided period (one year) are calculated and stored in the project database 17. The amount of the growth change is stored as change in the carbon accumulation amount, determined by the calculation to determine the carbon accumulation amount described above.
Subsequently, after the project information has been stored in the project database 17, the indirect effect estimating section 18 reads the project information from the project database 17, and, effects on the surrounding environment (step S4) is estimated in order to implement this project. In particular, the negative influence in the surrounding environment in reforestation site is estimated, in contrast to the target to maximize the carbon fixed amount in the site. Types of indirect influences are:
These indirect effects are estimated by storing estimated values based on prior investigation of the scale of the reforestation and each environment of the reforestation location, and reading the value that corresponds to the devised project.
Next, the indirect effect estimating section 18 stores the estimated indirect effects in the project database 17.
Next, the indirect effect estimating section 18 reads the project information from the project database 17, and, to implement this project, estimates the risk of danger (step S5). The types of risk are
These risks are estimated by storing estimated values based on prior investigation of the scale of the reforestation and each environment of the reforestation site, and reading the value that corresponds to the devised project.
Next, the indirect effect estimating section 18 stores the estimated risk in the project database 17.
Next, the project output section 20 reads the project information stored in the project database 17, and outputs it to the reforestation area terminal 3 through output to a display (not shown) and the internet 4.
As a consequence, the project for reforestation is output, and the reforestation implementer implements reforestation based on this project (step S6).
At the time of implementing the project, when the indirect effects and risks are extremely large, it is possible to re-examine and review the project and to change the project to one having smaller indirect effects and risks. In this way, by considering indirect effects and risks when devising the project, it becomes possible to evaluate the project accurately.
Subsequently, an operation of reviewing a project based on results of monitoring present conditions during project execution will be explained. Firstly, the reforestation implementer inputs present states such as the progress of the forest from the reforestation area terminal 3, and transmits them to the reforestation project system 1. This present condition information is received by the present condition information-collecting section 11, which notifies the project accomplishment status assessment section 23. The reforestation implementer inputs information relating to risks from the reforestation area terminal 3, and transmits it to the reforestation project system 1. This risk information is received by the risk information collecting section 22, which notifies the project accomplishment status assessment section 23.
Upon receiving this, the project accomplishment status assessment section 23 reads the project information from the project database 17, consults this project information and the information obtained from the information-collecting sections, and assesses the accomplishment status of the project (step S7). The assessment of the accomplishment status of the project is executed by first determining the carbon accumulation amount in the sequence described above based on the present condition information obtained from the present condition information-collecting section 11, comparing the carbon accumulation amount that was determined with the carbon accumulation amount stored in the project database 17, and thereby calculating the accomplishment rate. Furthermore, indirect effects and risk are calculated in the same manner from the state of the present condition of the project.
This determination result is output to the project review section 24, and also to a display (not shown) and a printer.
Next, the project review section 24 reviews the project if the project program is not accomplished, based on the determination result of the accomplishment status. Based on the determination result that was notified from the project accomplishment status assessment section 23, the project review section 24 outputs assumed reasons for the non-accomplishment of the project stored beforehand to the display and the printer. An operator receives those reasons, estimates the reasons why the project was not accomplished while estimating the reasons, and outputs the estimated reasons through a keyboard (not shown) to the project review section 24. Upon receiving the output, the project review section 24 outputs a countermeasure, defined for each reason beforehand. The operator receives countermeasures and implements countermeasures (step S9). Then, the project review section 24 reviews the project by re-devising the project based on the project information stored in the project database 17 (step S10).
Next, the project review section 24 newly stored the reviewed project in the project database 17. Then, once the new project has been stored, the indirect effect estimating section 18 newly estimates indirect effects by the operation described above, and stores them in the project database 17. Furthermore, the risk estimating section 1918 newly estimates risk by the above-described operation and stores them in the project database 17.
The steps S7 to S10 shown in
In this way, the reforestation project is devised based on the present condition of the reforestation site, while estimating indirect effects and risks, thereby enabling the reforestation project to be devised easily. Further, while executing the project, the accomplishment status of the project is assessed based on condition information, indirect effect information, and risk information, and the project is reviewed based on the assessments, which enables the reforestation project reliably executed.
Although the preceding explanation describes the carbon accumulation amount and carbon fixed amount (increase in the carbon accumulation amount), it is possible to estimates the reforestation project by the carbon dioxide absorption amount, and the carbon dioxide amount can be obtained by muliplying a predetermined coefficient to the carbon accumulation amount or the carbon fixed amount. Since the carbon amount and the amount of carbon dioxide are proportionally related, the carbon amount may be substituted to the amount of carbon dioxide.
Further, a program for realizing the functions of all the processing sections in
Further, the abovementioned program may be transmitted from the computer system that stored the program in the memory device or the like to another computer system through a transmitting medium, or by transmission waves in a transmitting medium. Here, the “transmitting medium” that transmits the program refers to a medium having a function for transmitting information, such as a network (communication net) such as the internet, and a communication line system (communication line) such as a telephone line system. Moreover, these functions can be realized in combination with programs already stored in the computer system, achieving a differential file (differential program).
A preferred embodiment of the invention has been described above with reference to the drawings, but the specific constitution is not limited to this embodiment, and the design may be modified in various ways without departing from the scope of the present invention.
This invention relates to a reforestation project system and a reforestation project program that can devise and evaluate a reforestation project in order to reduce a greenhouse effect gas discharge. Thus, the reforestation project system is useful in selecting a site for reducing the carbon dioxide discharge by providing a computer server capable of communicating with terminals installed in sites, a project database for storing reforestation projects, a tree-type database, a condition information-collecting means for collecting the tree diameters at the breast height and tree heights of trees within local regions. This invention is applicable to reforestation project to an area where carbon dioxide discharge is desired by selecting a region which is most effective for reducing carbon dioxide in the area.
| Number | Date | Country | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-333526 | Nov 2002 | JP | national |
| Filing Document | Filing Date | Country | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCT/JP03/14579 | 11/18/2003 | WO |
