NSF Award
9531306
9531306 Maynard This Small Business Innovative Research Phase II award will continue the development of an operational prototype system to forecast ionospheric currents and related effects, such as enhancements in auroral oval heating, density irregularities and geomagnetically induced currents at customer specific locations. The Phase I effort designed and proved the feasibility of the Space Weather Ionospheric Forecast Technologies (SWIFT) system which provides the first predictive temporally- and spatially- variable capability for determining ionospheric currents and resulting ground magnetic variations. These forecasts will depend directly on real-time measurements of the solar wind velocity, density, and interplanetary magnetic field. Application of this method to space weather forecasting will provide, for the first time, one-hour forecasts of impending geomagnetic storm and substorm activity which can be used to improve ground-based operations such as power distribution, pipeline management, and six-sigma manufacturing, and will positively impact the functionality and reliability of communications, navigation, and space operations. The product will provide customer specific forecasts for both commercial and government space and ground-based applications. In Phase II, the investigators will (1) add refinements to the code to improve accuracy, (2) design a robust operational prototype that will operate efficiently without significant operator intervention and, at the same time, provide a quality control output, (3) quantify the market for these products, and (4) develop a product tree that will provide customer specific outputs for space weather effects mitigation. The product of this proposal will have broad commercial applications. It will provide critical warning of Geomagnetically Induced Currents that severely impact power line transmission, and can affect pipelines, long communication lines and high-reliability "six sigma" manufacturing processes. It will also benefit high-priority activities within the government, and will augment forecast capabilities currently under development for SEC and AFSFC. The potential savings are many millions of dollars per year.
