Patent Application
20090270155
This disclosure relates to creation and scoring of a prediction game (that is, a game played between two or more people and based on a set of events, where each player predicts the outcome of the events). In particular, the game may be played as a parimutuel wagering game through an online system, for entertainment or (where permitted) with monetary payouts.
Current fantasy sports games and sports betting are limited in several ways. Sports betting generally involves only a single event. If there is a parimutuel style bet, it is not in a form where players are competing in predicting across multiple events with the closest being the winner. In fantasy sports, the game is generally not designed to be flexible. In other forms of prediction games (e.g. the familiar NCAA basketball tournament bracket pool), players are limited to predicting wins and losses in a fixed set of events.
Conventional fantasy or prediction games score players only versus the actual results; a given player's performance versus the other players is not taken into account. This does not create as compelling a game in a case where player gets a difficult prediction right; the player does not get extra benefit for having made a good guess on something that no one else could get right.
It is desirable to facilitate creation, management and scoring of prediction games (especially those played online) in which the accuracy of the prediction may be expressed numerically, players' predictions compared with one another, and the most successful players rewarded accordingly. Furthermore, it is desirable to adapt a prediction game to other categories of events whose future outcome is unknown (e.g. politics, financial markets, weather, etc.).
The present disclosure provides a method for creating a prediction game. This method includes the steps of selecting an outcome relative to which a prediction may be made; receiving predictions regarding the outcome from a plurality of players; measuring the accuracy of each player's prediction compared with the actual outcome, computing a score for each player in accordance therewith; and ranking the players in accordance with the respective scores. In an embodiment, computing the score for a player further comprises determining the relative accuracy of all players' predictions, so that the game is a competition among the players, to see who makes the most accurate predictions. The measuring step may also include calculating a value for each player representing a difference between the player's prediction and the actual outcome. The method may further include calculating a distribution of the differences for all players, and using a statistic related to that distribution to calculate the value. The computing step may also include performing a statistical analysis of all the values relating to the outcome. In particular, the computing step includes a procedure for eliminating outliers among the predictions, so that the scores are not accidentally or deliberately skewed.
According to another aspect of the disclosure, a system comprises a computing device configured to construct a prediction game, in accordance with a host (an individual making decisions regarding construction of the game) selecting an outcome relative to which a prediction may be made. The computing device is also configured to receive predictions regarding the outcome from a plurality of players; measure the accuracy of each player's prediction compared with the actual outcome; compute a score for each player in accordance with that measuring; and rank the players in accordance with the respective scores.
According to a further aspect of the disclosure, a computer-readable storage medium has stored therein instructions for performing a method, where method includes the steps outlined above.
According to an additional aspect of the disclosure, a user interface includes a first section for composing a prediction game, including a list of events, a list of outcomes relating to each of the events, a maximum number of points to be awarded based on a prediction of an outcome, an entry fee for each player, and a schedule for making payouts to players. The user interface also includes a second section for viewing the prediction game while under construction.
The foregoing has outlined, rather broadly, the preferred features of the present disclosure so that those skilled in the art may better understand the detailed description of the disclosure that follows. Additional features of the disclosure will be described hereinafter that form the subject of the claims of the disclosure. Those skilled in the art should appreciate that they can readily use the disclosed conception and specific embodiment as a basis for designing or modifying other structures for carrying out the same purposes of the present disclosure and that such other structures do not depart from the spirit and scope of the disclosure in its broadest form.
A prediction game according to the present disclosure (also referred to herein as a Pikum™ game, pronounced “pick 'em”) is played between two or more people. (“Pikum” is a trademark of Pikum! Holdings Limited.) The game is played based on a set of one or more events, with related outcomes that each player is asked to predict. Each event is something that will happen in the future and will have one or more reported outcomes. (For example, a baseball game is a single event, but has many related outcomes—final score, number of hits, number of strikeouts, number of home runs, etc.) An event may also include a plurality of separate occurrences (for example, the World Series is a set of separate games, but “total number of runs scored in the series” could be viewed as a single outcome). Each outcome for which a player is to make a prediction (referred to herein as a game parameter, also referred to herein as a “Pik”) has a weighting assigned to it. The weighting may be applied by assigning a certain number of points to each Pik, or giving each Pik a percentage weighting (out of 100%). In general, there are two types of outcomes:
(1) An outcome can be a true/false or multiple choice occurrence, whereby it is clear whether the player's prediction is correct or not. Examples are “Will John Smith score a goal in the match?” or “Who will be the winner of the race?” or “Which of the following will win the award for Best Actor?”.
(2) The second type of outcome is a numeric result whereby some numerical statistic is generated as the result of the event. Here, a player's prediction could be exactly correct, or there could be a measurable difference between his prediction and the actual outcome. Examples are “What will the total attendance of a game be”, “How many shots on goal will a certain player have?”.
The examples of games presented herein generally relate to sports events. It will be appreciated, however, that a game may involve predictions of any unknown outcome, whether it be sports, entertainment awards shows, politics, stock prices, or even the weather. As shown in
A person who creates a Pikum game is called the “host.” The host, using a template or a user interface as described in detail below, determines what outcomes (game parameters) players have to predict and how much each parameter is worth in determining the overall winner. A Pikum game could be based on predicting one outcome for one event (e.g. “Number of goals in a football match”), predicting multiple outcomes across multiple events (e.g. “For each game this season, will David Beckham score or not?”), or predicting outcomes from an aggregation of events (“Will David Beckham score more than 20 goals this season?”). The host also sets what the wager is (either in actual money or play currency), and what the payout structure is (e.g. “winner take all,” “top three finishers split the pool 70/20/10”, etc.). The host can also set restrictions on who may play the game—the game may be open to anyone, or possibly open to only the people the host invites.
A system 20 for creating and administering a Pikum game, in accordance with an embodiment of the disclosure, is shown schematically in
A process embodying the disclosure, in which a host creates and launches a game to be played by a plurality of players, is shown in the flowchart of
The host also chooses various settings (step 303) to further define the game, described in more detail below. In step 304, the host then launches the game to a website accessible by the players. The results (player inputs and actual outcomes) are processed (step 305), and a score for each player is computed (step 306). Payouts to the players are then awarded (step 307) in accordance with a formula defined by the host; a predefined share of the entry fees (“vigorish”) is generally retained by the system provider.
In an embodiment, a home page for the Pikum game website may appear as shown schematically in
In an embodiment, steps 301-303 of creating a game may be performed by using (and possibly modifying) a template. A process for creating a game using a template is shown in the flowchart of
Alternatively, the host may select the event and other parameters of the game without using a template, following a game creation process shown in the flowchart of
In step 703, the host sets the details for the Pikum game, including:
Pikum game title
Pikum game description
A picture associated with the Pikum game
Entry type (actual money, e.g. US dollars, or play money)
Entry fee: in this embodiment, US Dollars are limited to multiples of US$5.00.
Payout type: in this embodiment, several Payout type selections are available, including:
Minimum number of players before the Pikum game goes live. This is a detail that is set so that if less than the minimum number of players enters the game, then the game does not go live, and all players who entered will have their entry fees returned.
Maximum number of players. This is a detail that is set if the host wishes to limit the maximum number of players. The host is also allowed to set this parameter to “unlimited,” which means that there is no restriction on the number of players.
Multiple Entries: The host can choose whether or not players will be allowed to enter the same Pikum game multiple times. For example, a player may enter the same game two times with different Piks each time. In an embodiment, the maximum number of entries per player that the system will allow is five.
Restrictions on who is permitted to play: in an embodiment, details of a procedure for restricting players is discussed below with reference to
Weighting factors: how much each parameter is worth in determining the order of finish for players in the Pikum game. By default, each parameter is given equal weight. Thus, if a host has a Pikum game that asks players to choose how many goals Manchester United will score in each of the next four matches, then each parameter (i.e., number of goals scored in each of those matches) will by default be worth 25% when it comes to scoring (see the scoring algorithm section for more details). In this embodiment, the host may choose to change the weighting of each parameter (provided the sum of all parameter weights equals 100) so that one parameter may be worth more than the others in determining the final outcome. For instance, a host could determine that choosing how many goals Manchester United will score in the first match is worth 70% in determining the winner of the Pikum game while choosing how many goals Manchester United scores in each of the other three matches is only worth 10% each. In this situation, a player who does well on the first match, even if that player does poorly on the other three matches, could still win the Pikum game.
The host may also create “tags” (step 703a) which are keywords which help other users find the particular Pikum game. For example, if a host creates a Pikum game about Manchester United, then the host might add tags such as “football,” “Manchester,” “Man U,” etc.
After the host has made all of his selections (or left the defaults in place), the host is taken to a review page which shows everything selected for the Pikum game (step 704). If the host is satisfied with the selections, the host then clicks on a “launch” button (step 705) that causes the Pikum game to become part of the system; other players can then enter the game. In this embodiment, after a game is launched the settings cannot be edited by the host. Alternatively, the host may be permitted to modify settings until the first entry is received.
In a further embodiment, a host (game creator) has the ability to create custom home pages (similar to Ebay stores) where the game may be located (step 705a). A host may create an unlimited number of these pages and integrate their games into them using widgets or feeds.
Certain jurisdictions prohibit online wagering with actual money. Accordingly, it may be necessary to restrict access to a game, depending on a player's location. A procedure for restricting player access is shown in the flowchart of
Examples of screens presented to the host while creating a game are shown schematically in
In another embodiment, the host is presented with a screen including a user interface serving as a “construction area” for the game being created, and a “viewing area,” as shown in
After a Pikum game has been launched, changes in its status, scoring, and prize payouts are all controlled by the same automated process. After the game is launched, and until scoring of the game is complete, the game progresses through three states called ActiveBeforeStart, ActiveBeforeLastEventStart and ClosedNotScored, as explained below.
A process of playing a Pikum game, from a player's point of view, is shown in the flowchart of
A player able to meet the entry fee is taken to a page where the player can enter predictions (Piks) for each parameter in the Pikum game. The player makes all of the predictions required by the game, and saves his predictions (step 1104).
A game can only be entered before the time that the first event in the game starts. All Pikum games start in the status ActiveBeforeStart. While the game is in this status new entries are allowed. The automated process checks continually for games reaching their start time, which is set to the start time of the first event in the game. As soon as a Pikum game reaches its start time its status changes to ActiveBeforeLastEventStart and no more entries are allowed. However, if the number of entries at the start time is less than minimum number of entries set by the host on the settings page, the game is cancelled and all players are refunded their full entry stakes. The automated process continues checking the start times of each event in the Pikum game until the start time of the last event in a game is reached. At that time the Pikum game status is changed to ClosedNotScored. If a Pikum game contains only one event, or all the events start at the same time, the game status will go directly from ActiveBeforeStart to ClosedNotScored. The game will remain in the ClosedNotScored state until the event results for each Pik in the Pikum game have been entered automatically or manually.
Piks in a Pikum game can be changed until the time that the event they are related to starts. Once a player has entered a game, the player can change predictions before an event has begun (steps 1105, 1106) but cannot withdraw from the game.
As the events in the Pikum game occur, the system updates the current player standings in the game (step 1107). Once all of the events in the Pikum game have occurred, the system calculates the final standings (step 1108) and payouts are made based on these final standings (step 1109). There will be a short time period between when the results are announced and when payouts are paid so players will have an opportunity to challenge the results if they think there has been a mistake.
A graphical representation of a Pikum game according to an embodiment, as seen by a player, is shown schematically in
After the events have concluded, results of the events must be entered into the system 20 so that player scores and payouts may be calculated. In an embodiment, this may be done by keying information directly into server 21. In another embodiment, this may be done using automated data feeds, e.g. official statistics from a sports league transmitted directly to the system over a secure communication link using Secure File Transfer Protocol (SFTP).
A process for scoring a Pikum game, in accordance with an embodiment of the disclosure, is shown in the flowchart of
If the prediction is of the True/False type and the player is correct (steps 1301, 1302)—that is, for example, if a player predicts that David Beckham will score and he does score—then (step 1303) the player receives 100% of the potential value of that Pik.
If the prediction is of the numeric type, then the player's score may depend not only on the accuracy of his prediction, but also on all the other players' predictions in relation to his own (steps 1301, 1304). For example, if a player predicts that Beckham will score 3 goals and he only scores 2 goals, then that player will receive less than 100% of the potential value of that Pik, and the amount the player receives will depend on how much better the player's Piks were compared to other players' Piks. This determination may be made using the following procedure:
The system examines each player's Pik and calculates how far it is from the outcome (step 1305); this may be referred to as the “distance,” expressed as an absolute value, between the player's prediction and the actual outcome. The system then determines the median distance amongst all the players (step 1306). Players who have a Pik that results in a distance equal to or greater than 2.5 times this median receive 0% of the value for the Pik. All other players receive a value (step 1307) based on the following formula:
Value=(−1/(2.5*(median distance)))*player Pik distance+1
All players with predictions meeting a predetermined criterion (in this example, within a bound of 2.5 times the median distance) receive a portion of the points available for that Pik based linearly upon where they fall within the bound. A player answering the Pik exactly correct will always receive the full amount of available points.
More generally, a distance from the actual outcome is calculated for each player prediction, and a distribution of those distances is used to define statistics for scoring the game. In the example just above, a linear distribution is used, and the median distance is used as a statistic to determine a criterion for awarding points to a player. Other statistical methods could be used to create a distribution of distances and to award between 0% and 100% of the available points in accordance with the accuracy of a player's predictions.
It will be appreciated that the scoring procedure discussed above is both proximity-based (that is, it depends upon the distance between the predicted outcome and the actual outcome) and peer-based (that is, it depends on the relative accuracy of all the players' predictions for that outcome). The use of a criterion for a maximum distance (e.g. 2.5 times the median distance as discussed above) serves to exclude outlier predictions that could (accidentally or deliberately) skew the scoring.
After each individual Pik has been scored, the Pik scores are for each player are summed together and the result is the player's total score (step 1308). Players are then ranked and assigned finishing places based on their total score (step 1309); this determines preliminary results.
Once scoring is complete, the Pikum game status changes to ClosedScored and the preliminary results and the preliminary prizes are displayed. The preliminary prizes are awarded to players based on the payout schedule selected by the host. In an embodiment, the system allows for possible errors in the transmission of event results, or the scoring procedure. The game will remain in the ClosedScored state for a period of time (e.g. 24 hours). During that period if any player in the game finds an error with a result that was entered, the scoring calculations, or the preliminary prize calculations, they may dispute the results using a Dispute Results function. If the function is used, the status of the game is changed to ClosedDisputed and will remain in that state until it has been reviewed by an administrator.
In real-money Pikum games, the entry fees are distributed amongst the players with a share optionally being retained by the system provider. The portion of the entry fees that the provider receives may depend on the amount of the entry fee and the number of players who are entered into the game.
Screenshots showing stages of construction of an actual Pikum game, according to a specific embodiment, appear in
It will be appreciated that a very large number of personalized prediction games, covering a wide range of topics and with a flexible number of events, may be constructed in accordance with embodiments of this disclosure.
While the disclosure has been described in terms of specific embodiments, it is evident in view of the foregoing description that numerous alternatives, modifications and variations will be apparent to those skilled in the art. Accordingly, the disclosure is intended to encompass all such alternatives, modifications and variations which fall within the scope and spirit of the disclosure and the following claims.
