1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates generally to a system and method for processing collections based on a customer's estimated risk and/or responsiveness to different treatments. More specifically, the present invention relates to a system and method for optimizing collections processing.
2. Related Art
When a cardholder misses payments and becomes delinquent, the cardholder generally enters collections. Banks contact these debtors using different methods and offer a wide variety of incentives (i.e., treatments) to make debtors pay. For example, some account holders can be contacted immediately, while some can be contacted after an initial delay. In addition, some account holders can be contacted using an auto-dialer (e.g., an automated voice message) to remind the debtor of the payment to be made, while other account holders can be contacted using a live dialer (i.e., a human). The severity of the delinquency will generally vary the treatment (e.g., a reduced interest rate, a partial waiver, litigation, etc.). In general, an account in collections can be considered “an account to be cured” and “paid-to-current” when the customer has paid his dues and/or the minimum dues for a few consecutive months. Balances on accounts that do not make a payment are generally charged-off and/or written-off as a loss, and sold to an external collection agency.
Collections processes currently utilized in the industry (e.g., financial services firms, credit card companies, banks, collection agencies, etc.) generally involve a regimented, rigid, time-dependent approach for collections segmentation. For example, collections processes are generally tightly coupled to “buckets,” cycles past due, and/or stages, and treatments are typically contingent on the buckets. The duration (e.g., the number of days) an account stays in each stage generally remains fixed (e.g., about 30-day blocks). Therefore, customers generally start in bucket 1 (e.g., about 1-29 days past due), and pass through a number of other buckets (e.g., bucket 2, bucket 3, bucket 4, bucket 5, bucket 6, etc.), until they charge-off or become cured at, for example, 180 days past due when entering bucket 7. With the fixed duration of each stage, all accounts generally pass through the same cascade of treatment stages and stay in each stage for substantially the same duration. It is generally not accounted for that some accounts may not respond to particular treatments. Thus, for example, a group of accounts may reach day 87 in collections having passed through the same stages and/or treatments.
If any accounts remain in the collections system 10 after the completion of bucket 1 16, all pending accounts are transferred to bucket 2 18, where for all accounts at each level of risk, the method of collection can be upgraded (e.g., live dialer) or kept the same. Thus, the risk categories and/or the method of collection change on a bucket-to-bucket basis (e.g., a monthly basis), such that all accounts remain at their respective level of risk 14 and/or bucket 12 until the end of bucket 2 18. After completion of bucket 2 18, all pending accounts can further be transferred to bucket 3 20, and so on. Due to the rigidity of the collections system 10, low level risk customers may be contacted from day 1, and high level risk accounts (i.e., bad accounts) may linger in the collections system 10 for months before proper action is taken.
In other collections systems currently utilized in the industry, some financial firms estimate the probability that an account will result in a charge-off or write-off when they enter collections. If an estimated delinquency level is high, an account could be rolled into later stages in the collections process, but the duration of these later stages are generally still fixed for all accounts. Also, financial institutions (e.g., banks) could have proprietary behavior scores for accounts in collections which can be frequently computed when an account enters collections, rolls from an early stage to a late stage, rolls from one bucket to the next, etc. In general, these scores can be used to identify better treatment options in a specific bucket. Based on these scores, accounts can be grouped by segments. However, people within a segment generally receive similar treatments.
As described above, the rigid systems currently utilized in the industry generally group accounts with similar scores by segments and each segment receives similar treatments. Thus, the treatment grids and/or segments currently utilized fail to provide the variability, flexibility, and/or adaptability necessitated by the industry. Thus, a need exists for optimizing a contact and/or treatment strategy for accounts in collections which allow greater flexibility in the timing of soft and/or aggressive collections actions. Further, a need exists for a new variable timing segmentation. These and other needs are satisfied by the systems and methods disclosed herein, which generally implement a customer's estimated risk and/or responsiveness to different treatments to create an optimized collections process.
The present invention relates to a system and method for optimizing collections processing. The system is based on customers' estimated risk and/or responsiveness to different treatments. The system includes entering an account into a collections stage, defining statistical models to predict customer behavior, and determining the time an account should stay in a specific collections stage and whether the account should be transferred to the next collections stage. Based on this determination, the account can leave the collections stage after a full payment is received, the account can be kept in a specific collections stage, or the account can be transferred to the next collections stage.
The foregoing features of the invention will be apparent from the following Detailed Description of the Invention, taken in connection with the accompanying drawings, in which:
The present invention relates to a system and method for optimizing collections processing based on customers' estimated risk and/or responsiveness to different treatments, as discussed in detail below in connection with
The variable timing segmentation system of the present invention discussed herein has removed the rigid and time-bound structure of the existing collections segmentation approaches currently utilized in the industry and replaced them with a more flexible and/or adaptable approach to transfer accounts into the right channel/segment and/or stage as quickly as possible. The system implements stages to track the flow of accounts through the life-cycle, and optimizes at an account level the time spent in each stage of the collections process. The collections system described herein could be implemented to improve the contact and/or treatment strategy for any type of agency which utilizes a collections process. Compared to the rigid and/or time-dependent systems in place today, the system allows much greater flexibility in the duration and/or timing of soft and/or aggressive collections actions based on each customer's estimated risk and/or responsiveness to different treatments, among other factors. Still further, the collections system discussed herein reduces the cost of collections. In particular, approximately 90% of accounts can generally be cured without human intervention. The collections system could increase the amount of time customers are permitted to self-cure, while honing collector efforts on those accounts that are least likely to self-cure. Thus, a reduction of resources used for accounts most and least likely to pay back their debt can be implemented, while a better allocation of resources and/or treatment decisions for accounts needing more critical care can be provided. The customer experience in collections is also improved. For example, although the majority of accounts currently result in collection by a collector at some point in their life-cycle, the collections systems could permit the majority of customers to be excluded from the intense and/or more aggressive collections stages.
The collections process could be a succession of N consecutive stages, where each stage is assigned or associated with a treatment, and an account in collections is assigned to a stage in the accounts database. These stages could be ordered by treatment severity, with the last stage generally being litigation. For example, the first stage could correspond to a no-contact stage, during which the account owner is not contacted or bothered to give allowance for people who forgot to pay. Customers who do not pay in the first stage could receive an automated message from an auto-dialer, a call from a live-dialer, etc. These contact methods can vary in type and/or intensity depending on the dialer strategy. Live-dialers can evaluate the customer's predicament and offer one of many payment plans (i.e., treatments) that they deem appropriate. For customers who do not respond to previous treatments, legal action could be an option. In step 214, a determination is made as to whether the account should be transferred to the next collections stage. If so, then the account is transferred to the next stage in step 216, and then returns to step 204. When transferred, the accounts database is updated, and the treatment could be automatically executed by the system (e.g., auto-dialer), or one or more users could be automatically notified of the transfer (e.g., text, email, etc.). For example, the system could instruct an auto-dialer and/or an interactive voice response (IVR) system to automatically place a telephone call to the account holder to request payment of the account. Further, the system could be programmed to automatically transmit an e-mail, text, or other form of electronic communication to the account holder, to request payment of the account. If not, the account is kept in the current stage in step 218. In step 220, the optimal amount of time the account should stay in (i.e., be assigned to) the current collections stage is calculated using one or more of the calculated model scores. The system calculates the optimal number of days for each treatment towards paying to current, as opposed to just the first payment (i.e., any payment, either full or partial), as used and predicted by some financial institution models.
Then, in step 222, a determination is made as to whether full payment has been received. If not, the process proceeds to step 223, where a determination is made as to whether there has been a significant event. If not, the process proceeds to step 224, where a determination is made as to whether the calculated optimal time has elapsed. If the optimal time has not elapsed, the process returns to step 222. If there has been a significant event in step 223, or if the optimal time has elapsed in step 224, then the process proceeds to step 226. In step 226 the accounts database 207 is updated with any new collections processing information (e.g., responsiveness to treatment, discovery that customer is paying other creditors, increase of external balances, payments, etc.), and then returns to step 204. If, in step 222, the full payment has been received, the process proceeds to step 230 where the account is removed from the collections stage and the collections process, and the accounts database is updated accordingly. In this way, an account could progress through various collections stages until a full payment has been received from the customer.
The system could also utilize various segments and assign an account to an appropriate segment, such as by processing the one or more model scores. In this way, each segment could have its own order of stages through which an account could be processed. The segments could be risk segments, so that, for example, an account is placed in a particular risk segment depending on the score of the risk of the account model. Additionally, the risk segment of an account could be re-assigned every time the system calculates, or recalculates one or more model scores.
As mentioned above, in order to optimally allocate the time an account should spend in a particular stage, statistical models could be defined to predict customer behavior. The statistical models could predict how risky the customer is, the ability of the customer to pay to current, etc. Thus, these models predict customer behavior when the customer's account enters each stage of the collections process. In some embodiments, for each stage of the collections process, models can be trained to estimate the probability (i.e., model score) that an account will pay to current (e.g., account holder pays his/her debt in full, pays three or more consecutive minimum payment dues on time, etc.) while in a particular stage, estimate the probability that the account will go bad once entering a particular stage, etc.
For example, one statistical model, P(Bad|Enter i), could represent the probability that an account will go bad once having entered a specific stage i. Another statistical model, P(Pay To Current|Enter i), could represent the probability that an account will pay to current after entering a specific stage i. If an account scores high on the P(Bad|Enter i) model, the collections system could avoid keeping the account in stage i for a long period of time, thus the number of days allocated to stage i could be low. Similarly, if the account scores high on the P(Pay To Current|Enter i) model, the account could be worth leaving in stage i for a longer period of time, thus the number of days allocated to stage i could be high. On the contrary, if the account scores low on the P(Pay To Current|Enter i) model, the account could be moved to the next stage in a shorter period of time. If the account scores very low on the P(Pay To Current|Enter i) model, this implies that the treatments in this stage are ineffective and the account should be transferred to the next stage in the collection system. Thus, for each account, the models can predict customer behavior on entering, or before entering, a stage. The predicted customer behavior can further be utilized to determine the effectiveness of treatments in the specific stage, thereby determining how long the account should be kept in a stage.
The mapping from model scores to optimal number of days could be done using several methods. Policy constraints which determine the maximum and/or minimum permissible number of days an account can stay in a particular stage could be given as boundary conditions. One approach could be to bin the scores (e.g., by deciles or quartiles) from all models in each stage and calculate the average time to pay for each bin during the model building phase. Another approach could be to utilize survival analysis methods which predict life spans of biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. These methods can be used to estimate the cost associated with the allotted number of days in each stage, thus further optimizing the process. By fitting a time to pay probability distribution (e.g., a Weibull distribution) the chances of a customer paying to current, given a particular number of days, can be calculated. A similar distribution could further be fitted for the “time-to-go-bad” model. The process settings further allow for integration of sets of constraints (e.g., regulatory issues) generally imposed by financial services firms. For example, a policy could impose that an account entering collections not be contacted until at least five days into the collections process. This rule could be incorporated in the time allocation optimization process described herein, thereby providing greater flexibility in the implementation of the process.
As mentioned above, the account holder's circumstances or history, and/or information collected at previous stages could be stored in an accounts database and utilized by the system.
PBadEntry1=[P(Bad|Enter 1)] Equation 1
The model for the second stage 354 could be represented as:
PBadEntry2=[P(Bad|Enter 1), P(Bad|Enter 2)] Equation 2
thereby taking into account the information collected from both the first and second stages 322 and 324. The stage i 326 model could be represented as:
PBadEntryi=[P(Bad|Enter 1), P(Bad|Enter 2), . . . , P(Bad|Enter i−1), P(Bad|Enter i)] Equation 3
thereby taking into account the information collected from any and all stages between the first stage 322 and stage i 326. Similarly, the model for stage i+1 328 could be represented as:
PBadEntryi+1=[P(Bad|Enter 1), P(Bad|Enter 2), . . . , P(Bad|Enter i), P(Bad|Enter i+1)] Equation 4
thereby taking into account the information collected from any and all stages between the first stage 322 and stage i+1 328. Thus, an account entering stage i+1 328 could be scored by the estimated models and with knowledge gained from the previous stages, thereby optimizing the timing of the account in stage i+1 328.
The accounts in the most likely to self-cure and medium risk customer categories could incur treatments of, for example, no contact, auto agent, live dialer, etc., implemented at various time stages based on the account being treated. In particular, the most likely to self-cure category generally receives delayed treatments and/or efforts for low risk accounts with the expectation that the account will be self-cured. If, for example, an external balance starts to increase for an account in the no contact and/or auto agent treatment phase, the customer could be transferred to an immediate contact treatment phase to ensure the balance is timely paid. The medium risk customer accounts generally receive increased intensity for mid-risk accounts. For example, a medium risk customer account could receive the no contact and/or auto agent treatment for a shorter period of time than the most likely to self-cure account and could receive the live dialer treatment for a longer period of time. If, for example, a creditor learns that a customer in the live dialer treatment phase is paying all other creditors while not making any payments to the creditor of interest, an intensified treatment could be applied (e.g., litigation) to ensure timely payment is received. The accounts in the most likely to charge-off category could incur treatments of, for example, live dialer, placement (e.g., outside agency, litigation), etc. In particular, the most likely to charge-off accounts are generally the riskiest accounts which are fast-tracked to agency and/or litigation. Thus, the most likely to charge-off accounts could initially receive a live dialer treatment and could further be placed with an agency and/or in litigation as an intensified treatment.
Similarly, the variable timing scheme and segmentation scheme of the system of the present invention could be implemented with respect to the systems of
The present invention can be embodied as a collections processing software module and/or engine 506, which can be embodied as computer-readable program code stored on the storage device 504 and executed by the CPU 510 using any suitable, high or low level computing language, such as, e.g., Java, C, C++, C#, .NET, and the like. The network interface 508 can include, e.g., an Ethernet network interface device, a wireless network interface device, any other suitable device which permits the processing server 502 to communicate via the network, and the like. The CPU 510 can include any suitable single- or multiple-core microprocessor of any suitable architecture that is capable of implementing and/or running the collections processing software 506, e.g., an Intel processor, and the like. The random access memory 512 can include any suitable, high-speed, random access memory typical of most modern computers, such as, e.g., dynamic RAM (DRAM), and the like.
Having thus described the invention in detail, it is to be understood that the foregoing description is not intended to limit the spirit or scope thereof. It will be understood that the embodiments of the present invention described herein are merely exemplary and that a person skilled in the art may make any variations and modification without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. All such variations and modifications, including those discussed above, are intended to be included within the scope of the invention. What is desired to be protected is set forth in the following claims.
This application claims priority to U.S. Provisional Patent Application No. 61/756,750 filed on Jan. 25, 2013, which is incorporated herein in its entirety by reference and made a part hereof.
Number | Date | Country | |
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61756750 | Jan 2013 | US |