Patent Application
20100058249
1. Field of the Invention
The invention relates to systems and methods for providing a probability output and receiving an input from a user via a graphical user interface and more specifically to systems and methods for providing a graphical user interfaces for prediction markets.
2. Description of the Known Art
As it is well known, electronic network devices, such as personal computers, mobile phones and personal digital assistants, contain a display device capable of displaying text and graphics. These display devices are capable of displaying a variety of data including probabilities that an event will occur. Prediction markets generate aggregate estimates of the likelihood of future events. Typically, the number of possible outcomes for a prediction market is relatively small. Because the number of outcomes is relatively small, these estimates can be easily displayed. Further, selecting data from these estimates of the prediction markets is relatively easy as there is little data to select.
However, combinational markets, in contrast, deal with a large number of outcomes. Often these outcomes may range from fifty outcomes to more than one million outcomes. Moreover, persons viewing this data must need to understand the potential likelihood that these outcomes are likely to occur.
As it is well known, electronic network devices also contain input devices, so that the user can input data, allowing the user to interact with the electronic network device. Because of the sheer number of the outcomes displayed in combinational markets, it is often difficult for persons to select data via an input device. This can be especially difficult when the user is attempting to select data they believe is most likely to occur, as this data may include numerous outcomes. As stated previously, combinational markets may have millions of points of data and selecting these millions of points of data can be extremely time consuming and tedious.
In overcoming the drawbacks of the prior art, a system and method for providing a probability output and receiving an input from a user via a graphical user interface is described. The system is typically a general purpose computer having a processor and a memory unit in communication with the processor. Generally, the memory unit contains instructions to configure the processor to execute the method for providing the probability output and receiving the input from the user via the graphical user interface.
The instructions configure the processor to provide a user interface having the probability output. This probability output is generally in a graphical form and is based on a probability that an event will occur. The processor is further configured to receive an input from the user via the graphical user interface. However, this input is provided by the user by marking portions of the graphical form of the probability output. In other words, the user can select the data that the user believes is likely to be true by simply marking the graphical form and submitting it to the processor. Thereafter, the processor may update the graphical form based on the input received from the user.
Further objects, features, and advantages of this invention will become readily apparent to persons skilled in the art after review of the following description, with reference to the drawings and claims that are appended to and formed part of this specification.
Referring to
The system 10 also includes user computers 16a, 16b, and 16c. Like the server 12 the user computers 16a, 16b, and 16c are also capable of being connected to the network 14. The use computer 16a, 16b, and 16c include display devices 18a, 18b, and 18c. The user computer 16a, 16b, and 16c also include input devices. These input devices may be in the form of keyboards 20a, 20b, and 20c. Additionally or alternatively, the input devices may be an analog input device, such a mouse, as shown by mice 22a, 22b, and 22c.
However, it should be understood that user computers 18a, 18b, and 18c may take a variety of different forms. In
Also, it should be understood that although the input devices are shown in
Finally, it should be understood that although only three user computers 16a, 16b, and 16c are shown, there may be any number of user computers connected to the network 14. In fact, there may be only one user computer or may be millions of user computers (or more) connected to the network 14.
Since the user computers 18a, 18b, and 18c are connected to the network 14 they are also in communication with the server 12. The server 12 is able to send information to the user computers 16a, 16b, and 16c via the network 14 and this data can be displayed on the display of devices 18a, 18b, and 18c.
When data provided from the server 12 is sent to the user computers 16a, 16b, and 16c, the data may be displayed on the display devices 18a, 18b, and 18c using a program capable of displaying data. Generally, this program may be a web browser capable of viewing numerous websites on the World Wide Web or may be a dedicated program capable of only interfacing with the server 12.
Referring to
Also in communication with the processor 24 are a storage unit 28 and a network interface 30. The storage unit 28 is generally a magnetic storage device, such as a hard disk, but may be any device suitable of storing electronic data. The network interface 30 is generally well known in the art and allows the server 12, and therefore the processor 24, to be in communication with the network 14 of
Referring to
The method begins with step 32, where the processor is configured to provide a user interface with a probability output to the user. This is accomplished by transmitting information from the server 12 to the user computers 16a, 16b, and 16c. In turn, these user computers 16a, 16b, and 16c transmit the probability output to the display devices 18a, 18b, and 18c.
In step 34, the server 12 receives an input from the user of one of the computers 16a, 16b, and 16c. Thereafter, in step 36, a determination is made if the probability output is based on a static determination. If the answer is yes, the method returns to step 32. If the answer is no, the method continues to step 38.
In step 38, a determination is made to calculate the probability output based on the input from the user. As it is well known in gambling, the probability changes as the number of bets outcome changes. Therefore, if most of the bets favor one outcome, the probability output will be updated to indicate that outcome. In like manor, if few bets are going to other outcomes, the probability output will be updated to reflect that these outcomes are less likely to occur. Therefore, in step 40 the user interface that is displayed on the display devices 18a, 18b, and 18c is updated to reflect the new calculated probability output based on the input received from the user in step 34.
Referring to
In this situation the histogram 46 generally represents a bell-shaped curve, representing a point spread. Sliders 48 and 50 are placed near the bottom of the histogram 43. These sliders 48 and 50 can be adjusted by the users of the user computers 16a, 16b, and 16c by utilizing the input devices, such as the mice 22a, 22b, and 22c. In this situation, the user has selected a point spread having a range between two and fourteen points, favoring one of the participants, in this case Cincinnati, to win between two and fourteen points.
As stated previously, the histogram represents a bell shaped curve, and that this bell shaped curve generally represents the likelihood of how much a participant will win by. In addition to the probability output, there is a betting location 52. The betting location 52 has an input area 54 for inputting a monetary amount the user would like to bet. Additionally, the betting area 52 has an output area 56 indicating what the user will win if their point spread is correct. Finally, betting area 52 includes a place bet button 57 which finalizes the transaction of the user.
Once the user finalizes the transaction, the method may determine, as stated in step 36 of
Referring to
There is a pointer 66 that is controlled generally by the mice 22a, 22b, and 22c of the user computer 16a, 16b, and 16c respectively. Here, the user can select data that the user appears most likely to occur by simply moving the pointer 66 to a first corner 68, and dragging from that first corner 68 to a second corner 70. A rectangle window 72 will be defined between the first corner 68 and the second corner 70. The data within this window 70 will then be the data that the user believes to be most probable to occur. Similarly, this data can then be provided to the server 12 where the server 12 can update this graphical form to represent that this user believes that these events will occur at the time they will occur.
As a person skilled in the art will readily appreciate, the above description is meant as an illustration of implementation of the principles of this invention. This description is not intended to limit the scope or application of this invention in that the invention is susceptible to modification, variation, and change, without departing from the spirit of this invention, as defined in the following claims.
