Claims
- 1. A method of evaluating an analyst's performance, said method comprising the steps of:
utilizing information pertaining to at least one revision made by the analyst involving at least one investment, including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; calculating a conditional performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said raw conditional performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one revision, a standard deviation of the at least one revision, a number of revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one revision will actually produce an expected result; and adjusting said conditional performance score according to a return amount adjustment to produce a final performance score.
- 2. The method of claim 1, wherein the average historical performance of the at least one investment is considered over three distinct periods of time.
- 3. The method of claim 2, wherein said three distinct periods of time comprise a short period of time which is approximately five days, an intermediate period of time which is approximately twenty days, and a long period of time which is approximately sixty days.
- 4. The method of claim 1, wherein the final performance score increases with the number of revisions.
- 5. The method of claim 1, wherein said revision comprises one of an upward revision or a downward revision.
- 6. The method of claim 1, wherein the final performance score increases when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 7. The method of claim 1, wherein the final performance score decreases when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 8. The method of claim 1, further comprising adjusting said conditional performance score according to a modifier accentuating the number of revisions made by the analyst.
- 9. The method of claim 1, wherein said return amount adjustment comprises a small return penalty reducing said final performance score for returns on said at least one investment less than a predetermined amount.
- 10. The method of claim 9, wherein said small return penalty is comprised of a difference between an average of a short period of time return factor, an intermediate period of time return factor, and a long period of time return factor, and a penalty; wherein said penalty is equal to approximately 15% for upward revisions and approximately −8% for downward revisions minus a return value corresponding to the investment for said long period of time; and wherein each period of time return factor is a cube root of a return percentage over a corresponding period of time.
- 11. The method of claim 9, wherein said small return penalty is imposed for small returns over a long period of time of approximately sixty days after said at least one revision.
- 12. The method of claim 9, wherein said small return penalty is generated by subtracting a penalty from an average of a first, second and third period of time return factor; wherein for upward revisions said penalty is 0 if an average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is greater than 15%, else said penalty is equal to 15% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein for downward revisions said penalty is 0 if said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is less than −8%, else said penalty is equal to −8% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein said first period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said first period of time is greater than ten, else said first period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said first period of time; wherein said second period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said second period of time is greater than ten, else said second period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said second period of time; and wherein said third period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said third period of time is greater than ten, else said third period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said third period of time.
- 13. The method of claim 1, wherein said calculating a conditional performance score comprises:
determining a first average return value (ave. return1), second average return value (ave. return2), and third average return value (ave. return3) for the at least one revision, said first, second, and third average return values corresponding respectively to an average rate of return on the at least one revision involving the investment for a first period of time (time1), a second period of time (time2), and a third period of time (time3); calculating, in absolute terms, a first t-stat value (t-stat1) for said first average return value, a second t-stat value (t-stat2) for said second average return value, and a third t-stat value (t-stat3) for said third average return value, said first, second, and third t-stat values calculated by utilizing said first, second, and third average return values, a first standard deviation (SD1), a second standard deviation (SD2), and a third standard deviation (SD3), a total number of revisions (revisions1) occurring more than or equal to the first period of time before said evaluating, a total number of revisions (revisions2) occurring more than or equal to the second period of time before said evaluating, and a total number of revisions (revisions3) occurring more than or equal to the third period of time before said evaluating; calculating a first degree of freedom (DF1) for said first average return value, a second degree of freedom (DF2) for said second average return value, and a third degree of freedom (DF3) for said third average return value; determining a first probability (prob1) for said first period of time by utilizing said first t-stat value and said first degree of freedom, a second probability (prob2) for said second period of time by utilizing said second t-stat value and said second degree of freedom, and a third probability (prob3) for said third period of time by utilizing said third t-stat value and said third degree of freedom; generating a raw conditional performance score for the analyst by utilizing prob1, prob2, and prob3; generating an adjustment to said raw conditional performance score by utilizing revisions1, revisions2, and revisions3; and adding said adjustment to said raw conditional performance score to produce said conditional performance score.
- 14. The method of claim 13, wherein if SD1=0, then conditional performance score=0 otherwise;
- 15. The method of claim 13, wherein said probabilities are determined according to a predetermined look-up table using actual calculated values of: DF1, DF2, DF3, t-stat1, t-stat2, and t-stat3, unless: DF1>100, in which case DF1 is set to 100; DF2>100, in which case DF2 is set to 100; DF3>100, in which case DF3 is set to 100; t-stat1>20, in which case t-stat1 is set to 20; t-stat2>20, in which case t-stat2 is set to 20; t-stat3>20, in which case t-stat3 is set to 20; t-stat1<0.01, in which case prob1 is set to 0; t-stat2<0.01, in which case prob2is set to 0; or t-stat3<0.01, in which case prob3 is set to 0.
- 16. The method of claim 13, wherein
- 17. The method of claim 13, wherein
- 18. A method of evaluating an analyst's performance, said method comprising the steps of:
utilizing information pertaining to at least one upward or downward revision including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; calculating a performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one upward or downward revision, a standard deviation of the at least one upward or downward revision, a number of upward or downward revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one upward or downward revision will actually produce an expected result; and comparing the analyst's performance score against performance scores of other analysts to produce at least one of an upward, downward or combined revision ranking.
- 19. The method of claim 18, wherein said three distinct periods of time comprise a short period of time which is approximately five days, an intermediate period of time which is approximately twenty days, and a long period of time which is approximately sixty days.
- 20. The method of claim 18, wherein said performance score increases with the number of revisions.
- 21. The method of claim 18, further comprising adjusting said performance score according to a modifier accentuating the number of revisions made by the analyst.
- 22. The method of claim 18, wherein said performance score increases when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is a downward revision, and wherein said performance score decreases when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 23. The method of claim 18, further comprising adjusting said performance score according to a small return penalty.
- 24. The method of claim 23, wherein said small return penalty is generated by subtracting a penalty from an average of a first, second and third period of time return factor; wherein for upward revisions said penalty is 0 if an average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is greater than 15%, else said penalty is equal to 15% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein for downward revisions said penalty is 0 if said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is less than −8%, else said penalty is equal to −8% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein said first period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said first period of time is greater than ten, else said first period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said first period of time; wherein said second period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said second period of time is greater than ten, else said second period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said second period of time; and wherein said third period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said third period of time is greater than ten, else said third period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said third period of time.
- 25. The method of claim 18, wherein said calculating a performance score comprises:
determining a first average return value (ave. return1), second average return value (ave. return2), and third average return value (ave. return3) for the at least one revision, said first, second, and third average return values corresponding respectively to an average rate of return on the at least one revision involving the investment for a first period of time (time1), a second period of time (time2), and a third period of time (time3); calculating, in absolute terms, a first t-stat value (t-stat1) for said first average return value, a second t-stat value (t-stat2) for said second average return value, and a third t-stat value (t-stat3) for said third average return value, said first, second, and third t-stat values calculated by utilizing said first, second, and third average return values, a first standard deviation (SD1), a second standard deviation (SD2), and a third standard deviation (SD3), a total number of revisions (revisions1) occurring more than or equal to the first period of time before said evaluating, a total number of revisions (revisions2) occurring more than or equal to the second period of time before said evaluating, and a total number of revisions (revisions3) occurring more than or equal to the third period of time before said evaluating; calculating a first degree of freedom (DF1) for said first average return value, a second degree of freedom (DF2) for said second average return value, and a third degree of freedom (DF3) for said third average return value; determining a first probability (prob1) for said first period of time by utilizing said first t-stat value and said first degree of freedom, a second probability (prob2) for said second period of time by utilizing said second t-stat value and said second degree of freedom, and a third probability (prob3) for said third period of time by utilizing said third t-stat value and said third degree of freedom; and generating a conditional performance score (cond. performance score) for the analyst by utilizing probe, prob2, and prob3, which may be manipulated to produce said performance score.
- 26. The method of claim 25, wherein if SD1=0, then conditional performance score=0 otherwise;
- 27. The method of claim 25, wherein said probabilities are determined according to a predetermined look-up table using actual calculated values of: DF1, DF2, DF3, t-stat1, t-stat2, and t-stat3, unless: DF1>100, in which case DF1 is set to 100; DF2>100, in which case DF2 is set to 100; DF3>100, in which case DF3 is set to 100; t-stat1>20, in which case t-stat1 is set to 20; t-stat2>20, in which case t-stat2 is set to 20; t-stat3>20, in which case t-stat3 is set to 20; t-stat1<0.01, in which case prob1 is set to 0; t-stat2<0.01, in which case prob2 is set to 0; or t-stat3<0.01, in which case prob3 is set to 0.
- 28. The method of claim 25, wherein
- 29. A method of evaluating an analyst's performance by utilizing information pertaining to at least one revision made by the analyst involving at least one investment, said method comprising the steps of:
determining a first average return value (ave. return1), second average return value (ave. return2), and third average return value (ave. return3) for the at least one revision, said first, second, and third average return values corresponding respectively to an average rate of return on the at least one revision involving the investment for a first period of time (time1), a second period of time (time2), and a third period of time (time3); calculating, in absolute terms, a first t-stat value (t-stat1) for ave. return1, a second t-stat value (t-stat2) for ave. return2, and a third t-stat value (t-stat3) for ave. return3, said first, second, and third t-stat values calculated by utilizing ave. return1, ave. return2, ave. return3, a first standard deviation (SD1), a second standard deviation (SD2), and a third standard deviation (SD3), a total number of revisions (revisions1) occurring more than or equal to time1 before said evaluating, a total number of revisions (revisions2) occurring more than or equal to time2 before said evaluating, and a total number of revisions (revisions3) occurring more than or equal to time3 before said evaluating; calculating a first degree of freedom (DF1) for ave. return1, a second degree of freedom (DF2) for ave. return2, and a third degree of freedom (DF3) for ave. return3; determining a first probability (prob1) for time1 by utilizing t-stat1 and DF1, a second probability (prob2) for time2 by utilizing t-stat2 and DF2, and a third probability (prob3) for time3 by utilizing t-stat3 and DF3; generating a raw conditional performance score for the analyst by utilizing prob1, prob2, prob3; adding a modifier (adjustment) to the raw conditional performance score determined by utilizing revisions,, revisions2, and revisions3, thereby producing a conditional performance score (cond. performance score); generating a small return penalty by subtracting a penalty from an average of return factors corresponding to time1, time2, and time3, wherein for upward revisions said penalty is 0 if ave. return3 is greater than 15%, else said penalty is equal to 15% minus ave. return3, wherein for downward revisions said penalty is 0 if ave. return3 is less than −8%, else said penalty is equal to −8% minus ave. return3, wherein said first period of time return factor is ten if ave. return1 is greater than ten, else said first period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and ave. return1, wherein said second period of time return factor is ten if ave. return2 is greater than ten, else said second period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and ave. return2, and wherein said third period of time return factor is ten if ave. return3 is greater than ten, else said third period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and ave. return3; and generating a final performance score (performance score) indicative of said analyst's performance by adding said small return penalty to said conditional performance score.
- 30. A system for evaluating an analyst's performance, said system comprising:
a processor; a memory storing a computer program controlling operation of said processor, said program including instructions for causing the processor to effect:
utilizing information pertaining to at least one revision made by the analyst involving at least one investment, including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; calculating a conditional performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said raw conditional performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one revision, a standard deviation of the at least one revision, a number of revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one revision will actually produce an expected result; and adjusting said conditional performance score according to a return amount adjustment to produce a final performance score.
- 31. The system of claim 30, wherein said average historical performance is calculated over three distinct periods of time, which comprise a short period of time which is approximately five days, an intermediate period of time which is approximately twenty days, and a long period of time which is approximately sixty days.
- 32. The system of claim 30, wherein the final performance score increases when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is a downward revision, and wherein the final performance score decreases when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 33. The system of claim 30, wherein said program further comprises instructions to effect adjusting said conditional performance score according to a modifier accentuating the number of revisions made by the analyst.
- 34. The system of claim 30, wherein said return amount adjustment comprises a small return penalty reducing said final performance score for returns on said at least one investment less than a predetermined amount.
- 35. The system of claim 34, wherein said small return penalty is comprised of a difference between an average of a short period of time return factor, an intermediate period of time return factor, and a long period of time return factor, and a penalty; wherein said penalty is equal to approximately 15% for upward revisions and approximately −8% for downward revisions minus a return value corresponding to the investment for said long period of time; and wherein each period of time return factor is a cube root of a return percentage over a corresponding period of time.
- 36. The system of claim 34, wherein said small return penalty is imposed for small returns over a long period of time of approximately sixty days after said at least one revision.
- 37. The system of claim 34, wherein said small return penalty is generated by subtracting a penalty from an average of a first, second and third period of time return factor; wherein for upward revisions said penalty is 0 if an average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is greater than 15%, else said penalty is equal to 15% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein for downward revisions said penalty is 0 if said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is less than −8%, else said penalty is equal to −8% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein said first period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said first period of time is greater than ten, else said first period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said first period of time; wherein said second period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said second period of time is greater than ten, else said second period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said second period of time; and wherein said third period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said third period of time is greater than ten, else said third period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said third period of time.
- 38. A system for evaluating an analyst's performance, said system comprising:
a processor; a memory storing a computer program controlling operation of said processor, said program including instructions for causing the processor to effect:
utilizing information pertaining to at least one upward or downward revision including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; calculating a performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one upward or downward revision, a standard deviation of the at least one upward or downward revision, a number of upward or downward revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one upward or downward revision will actually produce an expected result; and comparing the analyst's performance score against performance scores of other analysts to produce at least one of an upward, downward or combined revision ranking.
- 39. The system of claim 38, wherein said program further comprises instructions to effect adjusting said performance score according to a modifier accentuating the number of revisions made by the analyst.
- 40. The system of claim 38, wherein said performance score increases when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is a downward revision, and wherein said performance score decreases when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 41. The system of claim 38, wherein said calculating a performance score comprises:
determining a first average return value (ave. return1), second average return value (ave. return2), and third average return value (ave. return3) for the at least one revision, said first, second, and third average return values corresponding respectively to an average rate of return on the at least one revision involving the investment for a first period of time (time1), a second period of time (time2), and a third period of time (time3); calculating, in absolute terms, a first t-stat value (t-stat1) for said first average return value, a second t-stat value (t-stat2) for said second average return value, and a third t-stat value (t-stat3) for said third average return value, said first, second, and third t-stat values calculated by utilizing said first, second, and third average return values, a first standard deviation (SD1), a second standard deviation (SD2), and a third standard deviation (SD3), a total number of revisions (revisions1) occurring more than or equal to the first period of time before said evaluating, a total number of revisions (revisions2) occurring more than or equal to the second period of time before said evaluating, and a total number of revisions (revisions3) occurring more than or equal to the third period of time before said evaluating; calculating a first degree of freedom (DF1) for said first average return value, a second degree of freedom (DF2) for said second average return value, and a third degree of freedom (DF3) for said third average return value; determining a first probability (prob1) for said first period of time by utilizing said first t-stat value and said first degree of freedom, a second probability (prob2) for said second period of time by utilizing said second t-stat value and said second degree of freedom, and a third probability (prob3) for said third period of time by utilizing said third t-stat value and said third degree of freedom; and generating a conditional performance score (cond. performance score) for the analyst by utilizing probe, prob2, and prob3,, which may be manipulated to produce said performance score.
- 42. The system of claim 41, wherein if SD1=0, then conditional performance score=0 otherwise;
- 43. The system of claim 41, wherein said probabilities are determined according to a predetermined look-up table using actual calculated values of: DF1, DF2, DF3, t-stat1, t-stat2, and t-stat3, unless: DF1>100, in which case DF1 is set to 100; DF2>100, in which case DF2 is set to 100; DF3>100, in which case DF3 is set to 100; t-stat1>20, in which case t-stat1 is set to 20; t-stat2>20, in which case t-stat2 is set to 20; t-stat3>20, in which case t-stat3 is set to 20; t-stat1<0.01, in which case prob1 is set to 0; t-stat2<0.01, in which case prob2 is set to 0; or t-stat3<0.01, in which case prob3 is set to 0.
- 44. The system of claim 41, wherein
- 45. A system for evaluating an analyst's performance, said system comprising:
means for utilizing information pertaining to at least one revision made by the analyst involving at least one investment, including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; means for calculating a conditional performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said raw conditional performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one revision, a standard deviation of the at least one revision, a number of revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one revision will actually produce an expected result; and means for adjusting said conditional performance score according to a return amount adjustment to produce a final performance score.
- 46. The system of claim 45, wherein said average historical performance is calculated over three distinct periods of time, which comprise a short period of time which is approximately five days, an intermediate period of time which is approximately twenty days, and a long period of time which is approximately sixty days.
- 47. The system of claim 45, wherein the final performance score increases when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is a downward revision, and wherein the final performance score decreases when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 48. The system of claim 45, further comprising means for adjusting said conditional performance score according to a modifier accentuating the number of revisions made by the analyst.
- 49. The system of claim 45, wherein said return amount adjustment comprises a small return penalty reducing said final performance score for returns on said at least one investment less than a predetermined amount.
- 50. The system of claim 49, wherein said small return penalty is comprised of a difference between an average of a short period of time return factor, an intermediate period of time return factor, and a long period of time return factor, and a penalty; wherein said penalty is equal to approximately 15% for upward revisions and approximately −8% for downward revisions minus a return value corresponding to the investment for said long period of time; and wherein each period of time return factor is a cube root of a return percentage over a corresponding period of time.
- 51. The system of claim 49, wherein said small return penalty is imposed for small returns over a long period of time of approximately sixty days after said at least one revision.
- 52. The system of claim 49, wherein said small return penalty is generated by subtracting a penalty from an average of a first, second and third period of time return factor; wherein for upward revisions said penalty is 0 if an average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is greater than 15%, else said penalty is equal to 15% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein for downward revisions said penalty is 0 if said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is less than −8%, else said penalty is equal to −8% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein said first period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said first period of time is greater than ten, else said first period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said first period of time; wherein said second period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said second period of time is greater than ten, else said second period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said second period of time; and wherein said third period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said third period of time is greater than ten, else said third period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said third period of time.
- 53. A system for evaluating an analyst's performance, said system comprising:
means for utilizing information pertaining to at least one upward or downward revision including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; means for calculating a performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one upward or downward revision, a standard deviation of the at least one upward or downward revision, a number of upward or downward revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one upward or downward revision will actually produce an expected result; and means for comparing the analyst's performance score against performance scores of other analysts to produce at least one of an upward, downward or combined revision ranking.
- 54. The system of claim 53, further comprising means for adjusting said performance score according to a modifier accentuating the number of revisions made by the analyst.
- 55. The system of claim 53, wherein said performance score increases when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is a downward revision, and wherein said performance score decreases when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 56. The system of claim 53, wherein said calculating a performance score comprises:
determining a first average return value (ave. return1), second average return value (ave. return2), and third average return value (ave. return3) for the at least one revision, said first, second, and third average return values corresponding respectively to an average rate of return on the at least one revision involving the investment for a first period of time (time1), a second period of time (time2), and a third period of time (time3); calculating, in absolute terms, a first t-stat value (t-stat1) for said first average return value, a second t-stat value (t-stat2) for said second average return value, and a third t-stat value (t-stat3) for said third average return value, said first, second, and third t-stat values calculated by utilizing said first, second, and third average return values, a first standard deviation (SD1), a second standard deviation (SD2), and a third standard deviation (SD3), a total number of revisions (revisions1) occurring more than or equal to the first period of time before said evaluating, a total number of revisions (revisions2) occurring more than or equal to the second period of time before said evaluating, and a total number of revisions (revisions3) occurring more than or equal to the third period of time before said evaluating; calculating a first degree of freedom (DF1) for said first average return value, a second degree of freedom (DF2) for said second average return value, and a third degree of freedom (DF3) for said third average return value; determining a first probability (prob1) for said first period of time by utilizing said first t-stat value and said first degree of freedom, a second probability (prob2) for said second period of time by utilizing said second t-stat value and said second degree of freedom, and a third probability (prob3) for said third period of time by utilizing said third t-stat value and said third degree of freedom; and generating a conditional performance score (cond. performance score) for the analyst by utilizing prob1, prob2, and prob3,, which may be manipulated to produce said performance score.
- 57. The system of claim 56, wherein if SD1=0, then conditional performance score=0 otherwise;
- 58. The system of claim 56, wherein said probabilities are determined according to a predetermined look-up table using actual calculated values of: DF1, DF2, DF3, t-stat1, t-stat2, and t-stat3, unless: DF1>100, in which case DF1 is set to 100; DF2>100, in which case DF2 is set to 100; DF3>100, in which case DF3 is set to 100; t-stat1>20, in which case t-stat1 is set to 20; t-stat2>20, in which case t-stat2 is set to 20; t-stat3>20, in which case t-stat3 is set to 20; t-stat1<0.01, in which case prob1 is set to 0; t-stat2<0.01, in which case prob2 is set to 0; or t-stat3<0.01, in which case prob3 is set to 0.
- 59. The system of claim 56, wherein
- 60. A computer data signal embodied in a carrier wave, said signal bearing instructions for causing a computer system to evaluate an analyst's performance, said instructions comprising:
utilizing information pertaining to at least one revision made by the analyst involving at least one investment, including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; calculating a conditional performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said raw conditional performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one revision, a standard deviation of the at least one revision, a number of revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one revision will actually produce an expected result; and adjusting said conditional performance score according to a return amount adjustment to produce a final performance score.
- 61. The signal of claim 60, wherein the final performance score increases when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is a downward revision, and wherein the final performance score decreases when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 62. The signal of claim 60, wherein said return amount adjustment comprises a small return penalty reducing said final performance score for returns on said at least one investment less than a predetermined amount.
- 63. The signal of claim 62, wherein said small return penalty is comprised of a difference between an average of a short period of time return factor, an intermediate period of time return factor, and a long period of time return factor, and a penalty; wherein said penalty is equal to approximately 15% for upward revisions and approximately −8% for downward revisions minus a return value corresponding to the investment for said long period of time; and wherein each period of time return factor is a cube root of a return percentage over a corresponding period of time.
- 64. The signal of claim 62, wherein said small return penalty is generated by subtracting a penalty from an average of a first, second and third period of time return factor; wherein for upward revisions said penalty is 0 if an average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is greater than 15%, else said penalty is equal to 15% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein for downward revisions said penalty is 0 if said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is less than −8%, else said penalty is equal to −8% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein said first period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said first period of time is greater than ten, else said first period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said first period of time; wherein said second period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said second period of time is greater than ten, else said second period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said second period of time; and wherein said third period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said third period of time is greater than ten, else said third period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said third period of time.
- 65. A computer data signal embodied in a carrier wave, said signal bearing instructions for causing a computer system to evaluate an analyst's performance, said instructions comprising:
utilizing information pertaining to at least one upward or downward revision including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; calculating a performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one upward or downward revision, a standard deviation of the at least one upward or downward revision, a number of upward or downward revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one upward or downward revision will actually produce an expected result; and comparing the analyst's performance score against performance scores of other analysts to produce at least one of an upward, downward or combined revision ranking.
- 66. The signal of claim 65, further comprising instructions for adjusting said performance score according to a modifier accentuating the number of revisions made by the analyst.
- 67. The signal of claim 65, wherein said calculating a performance score comprises:
determining a first average return value (ave. return1), second average return value (ave. return2), and third average return value (ave. return3) for the at least one revision, said first, second, and third average return values corresponding respectively to an average rate of return on the at least one revision involving the investment for a first period of time (time1), a second period of time (time2), and a third period of time (time3); calculating, in absolute terms, a first t-stat value (t-stat1) for said first average return value, a second t-stat value (t-stat2) for said second average return value, and a third t-stat value (t-stat3) for said third average return value, said first, second, and third t-stat values calculated by utilizing said first, second, and third average return values, a first standard deviation (SD1), a second standard deviation (SD2), and a third standard deviation (SD3), a total number of revisions (revisions1) occurring more than or equal to the first period of time before said evaluating, a total number of revisions (revisions2) occurring more than or equal to the second period of time before said evaluating, and a total number of revisions (revisions3) occurring more than or equal to the third period of time before said evaluating; calculating a first degree of freedom (DF1) for said first average return value, a second degree of freedom (DF2) for said second average return value, and a third degree of freedom (DF3) for said third average return value; determining a first probability (prob1) for said first period of time by utilizing said first t-stat value and said first degree of freedom, a second probability (prob2) for said second period of time by utilizing said second t-stat value and said second degree of freedom, and a third probability (prob3) for said third period of time by utilizing said third t-stat value and said third degree of freedom; and generating a conditional performance score (cond. performance score) for the analyst by utilizing prob1, prob2, and prob3,, which may be manipulated to produce said performance score.
- 68. A computer readable medium storing instructions executable by a computer, the instructions for instructing the computer to effect evaluating an analyst's performance, said instructions comprising:
utilizing information pertaining to at least one revision made by the analyst involving at least one investment, including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; calculating a conditional performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said raw conditional performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one revision, a standard deviation of the at least one revision, a number of revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one revision will actually produce an expected result; and adjusting said conditional performance score according to a return amount adjustment to produce a final performance score.
- 69. The computer readable medium of claim 68, wherein the final performance score increases when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is a downward revision, and wherein the final performance score decreases when a rate of return of the at least one investment decreases and the revision is an upward revision, or when a rate of return of the at least one investment increases and the revision is a downward revision.
- 70. The computer readable medium of claim 68, wherein said return amount adjustment comprises a small return penalty reducing said final performance score for returns on said at least one investment less than a predetermined amount.
- 71. The computer readable medium of claim 70, wherein said small return penalty is comprised of a difference between an average of a short period of time return factor, an intermediate period of time return factor, and a long period of time return factor, and a penalty; wherein said penalty is equal to approximately 15% for upward revisions and approximately −8% for downward revisions minus a return value corresponding to the investment for said long period of time; and wherein each period of time return factor is a cube root of a return percentage over a corresponding period of time.
- 72. The computer readable medium of claim 70, wherein said small return penalty is generated by subtracting a penalty from an average of a first, second and third period of time return factor; wherein for upward revisions said penalty is 0 if an average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is greater than 15%, else said penalty is equal to 15% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein for downward revisions said penalty is 0 if said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time is less than −8%, else said penalty is equal to −8% minus said average return value corresponding to the investment for a long term period of time; wherein said first period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said first period of time is greater than ten, else said first period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said first period of time; wherein said second period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said second period of time is greater than ten, else said second period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said second period of time; and wherein said third period of time return factor is ten if an average return over said third period of time is greater than ten, else said third period of time return factor is equal to a cube root of a product of 100 and said average return over said third period of time.
- 73. A computer readable medium storing instructions executable by a computer, the instructions for instructing the computer to effect evaluating an analyst's performance, said instructions comprising:
utilizing information pertaining to at least one upward or downward revision including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; calculating a performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one upward or downward revision, a standard deviation of the at least one upward or downward revision, a number of upward or downward revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one upward or downward revision will actually produce an expected result; and comparing the analyst's performance score against performance scores of other analysts to produce at least one of an upward, downward or combined revision ranking.
- 74. The computer readable medium of claim 73, further comprising adjusting said performance score according to a modifier accentuating the number of revisions made by the analyst.
- 75. The computer readable medium of claim 73, wherein said calculating a performance score comprises:
determining a first average return value (ave. return1), second average return value (ave. return2), and third average return value (ave. return3) for the at least one revision, said first, second, and third average return values corresponding respectively to an average rate of return on the at least one revision involving the investment for a first period of time (time1), a second period of time (time2), and a third period of time (time3); calculating, in absolute terms, a first t-stat value (t-stat1) for said first average return value, a second t-stat value (t-stat2) for said second average return value, and a third t-stat value (t-stat3) for said third average return value, said first, second, and third t-stat values calculated by utilizing said first, second, and third average return values, a first standard deviation (SD1), a second standard deviation (SD2), and a third standard deviation (SD3), a total number of revisions (revisions1) occurring more than or equal to the first period of time before said evaluating, a total number of revisions (revisions2) occurring more than or equal to the second period of time before said evaluating, and a total number of revisions (revisions3) occurring more than or equal to the third period of time before said evaluating; calculating a first degree of freedom (DF1) for said first average return value, a second degree of freedom (DF2) for said second average return value, and a third degree of freedom (DF3) for said third average return value; determining a first probability (prob1) for said first period of time by utilizing said first t-stat value and said first degree of freedom, a second probability (prob2) for said second period of time by utilizing said second t-stat value and said second degree of freedom, and a third probability (prob3) for said third period of time by utilizing said third t-stat value and said third degree of freedom; and generating a conditional performance score (cond. performance score) for the analyst by utilizing prob1, prob2, and prob3,, which may be manipulated to produce said performance score.
- 76. A method of evaluating an analyst's performance, said method comprising:
a step for utilizing information pertaining to at least one revision made by the analyst involving at least one investment, including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; a step for calculating a conditional performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said raw conditional performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one revision, a standard deviation of the at least one revision, a number of revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one revision will actually produce an expected result; and a step for adjusting said conditional performance score according to a return amount adjustment to produce a final performance score.
- 77. A method of evaluating an analyst's performance, said method comprising:
a step for utilizing information pertaining to at least one upward or downward revision including an upward or downward change in opinion of the analyst with regard to the at least one investment; a step for calculating a performance score indicative of the analyst's performance relative to other analysts, said performance score determined at least in part by considering a measure of variability of the analyst's performance, an average historical performance of the at least one investment following the at least one upward or downward revision, a standard deviation of the at least one upward or downward revision, a number of upward or downward revisions made by the analyst, and a likelihood that the at least one upward or downward revision will actually produce an expected result; and a step for comparing the analyst's performance score against performance scores of other analysts to produce at least one of an upward, downward or combined revision ranking.
RELATED APPLICATIONS
[0001] This application is a continuation-in-part of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 09/597,742, filed Jun. 19, 2000, to Bettis et al., which claims priority from U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/139,771,filed Jun. 18, 1999, both of which are incorporated herein by reference. This application also claims priority from U.S. Provisional Application No. 60/196,314, filed Apr. 12, 2000, to Columbus et al., which is also incorporated herein by reference.
Provisional Applications (2)
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Number |
Date |
Country |
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60139771 |
Jun 1999 |
US |
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60196314 |
Apr 2000 |
US |
Continuation in Parts (1)
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Number |
Date |
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Parent |
09597742 |
Jun 2000 |
US |
Child |
09829439 |
Apr 2001 |
US |