The present invention generally relates to assessment, diagnosis and evaluation of kidney health. More specifically, the present invention relates to detection, staging, and prediction of kidney conditions, and to therapy recommendations. The present invention also relates to the implementation and use of a processing device or tool for diagnosis, staging and therapy recommendation, and to the display or other provision of kidney health, stage, and therapy recommendation to, e.g., a user (e.g., a patient and/or medical professional).
Kidney conditions, such as acute kidney injury, affect a large number of patients globally. Diagnosis and prediction of kidney conditions is difficult and is affected by a large number of variables. Thus, it can be challenging for physicians to effectively diagnose and treat kidney conditions.
An embodiment of a system for assessing kidney health includes a processing device including an input module configured to receive input values related to kidney function of a patient, and a prediction module having a computation algorithm and/or a model configured to predict a kidney condition and calculate a kidney health score related to at least one of a severity and a probability of the predicted kidney condition, the kidney health score calculated based on the one or more input values. The system also includes an output module configured to present the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score to a medical professional.
An embodiment of a method of assessing kidney health includes receiving, by an input module, input values related to kidney function of a patient, and predicting, by a prediction module comprising a computation algorithm and/or a model, a kidney condition and calculating a kidney health score related to at least one of a severity and a probability of the predicted kidney condition by a prediction module, the kidney health score calculated based on the one or more input values. The method also includes presenting, by an output module, the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score to a medical professional.
The specifics of the exclusive rights described herein are particularly pointed out and distinctly claimed in the claims at the conclusion of the specification. The foregoing and other features and advantages of the embodiments of the invention are apparent from the following detailed description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in which:
In one or more embodiments, the computer system 10 is configured to perform health evaluation and/or therapy recommendations based on one or more models related to kidney function, health status, treatment outcome, disease risk and/or other information relevant to diagnosis and treatment. Examples of models include inference-based models, artificial intelligence (AI) models, guideline-based, recommendation-based models and others. It is understood that the term model and algorithm may be used interchangeably. Other examples include physiology-driven organ simulation models using a mathematical model of an organ, such as a kidney. A selected model may be a linear or nonlinear model based on clinical variables. The model can output information such as kidney health, disease status and/or therapy recommendations. Further details of the functionality of the computer system 10 are provided below.
Embodiments described herein provide a number of advantages and solutions to problems or challenges faced in diagnosis and treatment of kidney conditions. For example, clinical knowledge, evidence based medicine, and expert opinion may provide rules for diagnosis, staging, and treating kidney conditions, but these rules require some computation of multiple variables or variables in time to be processed, constraints to be applied, and conditions to be checked for proper execution, which can be time intensive and challenging. Embodiments described herein address such challenges, and provide tools that provide such computation and are easily accessible, interpretable, and actionable so as to be clinically useful.
Components of the computer system 10 include one or more processors or processing units 12, a system memory 14, and a bus 16 that couples various system components including the system memory 14 to the one or more processing units 12. The bus 16 represents one or more of any of several types of bus structures, including a memory bus or memory controller, a peripheral bus, an accelerated graphics port, and a processor or local bus using any of a variety of bus architectures. The system memory 14 may include a variety of computer system readable media. Such media can be any available media that is accessible by the one or more processing units 12, and includes both volatile and non-volatile media, removable and non-removable media.
For example, the system memory 14 includes a storage system 18 for reading from and writing to a non-removable, non-volatile memory 20 (e.g., a hard drive). The system memory 14 may also include volatile memory 22, such as random access memory (RAM) and/or cache memory. The computer system 10 can further include other removable/non-removable, volatile/non-volatile computer system storage media.
As will be further depicted and described below, system memory 14 can include at least one program product having a set (e.g., at least one) of program modules that are configured to carry out the functions of embodiments of the invention.
For example, the system memory 14 stores a program/utility 24, having a set (at least one) of program modules. The program/utility 24 may be an operating system, one or more application programs, other program modules, and program data. The program modules generally carry out the functions and/or methodologies of embodiments of the invention as described herein.
For example, the program modules include an input module 26 configured to acquire data such as patient data that can be used as input to a disease detection, staging, and/or prediction model. The program modules can also include a prediction module or evaluation module 28 configured to generate a prediction of kidney (or other organ) disease severity or probability using a prediction model, and an output module 30 configured to output information such as prediction of kidney injury and/or therapy recommendations based on predicted kidney injury, probability, or severity.
The one or more processing units 12 can also communicate with one or more external devices 32 such as a keyboard, a pointing device, a display, and/or any devices (e.g., network card, modem, etc.) that enable the one or more processing units 12 to communicate with one or more other computing devices. In addition, the one or more processing units 12 can communicate with an external storage device such as a database 34. This database may be a data repository of a hospital system, an electronic health record, a medical device or system with proprietary storage, or the like. Such communication can occur via Input/Output (I/O) interfaces 36. Other interfaces might include application programming interfaces (APIs) not shown here.
The one or more processing units 12 can also communicate with one or more networks 38 such as a local area network (LAN), a general wide area network (WAN), and/or a public network (e.g., the Internet) via network adapter 40. The processing units 12 can also communicate wirelessly via, for example, a Bluetooth connection 42 or the like. It should be understood that although not shown, other hardware and/or software components could be used in conjunction with the computing system 10. Examples, include, but are not limited to microcode, device drivers, redundant processing units, external disk drive arrays, RAID systems, tape drives, and data archival storage systems, etc.
The system 100 is configured to generate a prediction of a kidney condition, which includes an indication of a predicted kidney condition and may include a kidney health score related to a severity, probability or indicator of the predicted kidney condition. In one embodiment, the prediction is accompanied by an indication of a level of confidence that the predicted kidney condition and/or the kidney health score are accurate. The level of confidence may be presented as a numerical score, a percentage, a probability (e.g., a probability score and/or probability distribution), a visual indicator (e.g., traffic light) and/or any other indication of a level of confidence. The level of confidence may be for a single prediction or multiple predictions. For example, a predicted kidney condition (e.g., an acute kidney injury or AKI stage) includes multiple predictions, each of which is associated with a kidney health score and/or level of confidence and/or probability. Each prediction can be presented to a user, or only the most likely prediction (and its confidence and/or probability) can be presented.
The system 100 is configured to output kidney health prediction information, which includes the predicted kidney condition, kidney health score and/or level of confidence, and may also provide additional information and/or guidance. For example, the prediction information can include a diagnostic protocol for diagnosing the predicted kidney condition, a recommendation of one or more diagnostic tests for evaluating kidney function, a treatment protocol for treating the predicted kidney condition, a therapy recommendation, and/or a recommendation as to an adjustment of an existing treatment protocol. The prediction information may be output to, e.g., a user interface, a processor and/or a storage device. For example, the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score are output to a medical professional and/or a storage location accessible by a medical professional, and/or directly or indirectly communicated to a medical professional. Aspects of the system 100 and methods for evaluating or assessing kidney health are discussed in more detail below.
Referring again to
The input module 102 can receive input data in a number of ways. For example, inputs can be entered manually, e.g., via a user interface 110, or automatically imported or auto-entered from a file or other memory location. For example, inputs can be entered and/or retrieved (via, e.g., Bluetooth, internet, etc.) from an input database 112 (also referred to as a health information database), from an electronic charting application (as electronic health records or EHRs 114), a lab system, a computerized physician order entry (CPOE) system, interface engine (upon updated or new values), or other medical device/system with a structured data type (e.g. FHIR, HL7, xml, binary, etc.).
Input data may be pre-processed, for example, by the pre-processing module 104. The pre-processing module 104 may be incorporated into the input module 102 as shown in
The system 100 may also include user authorization, authentication, and data encryption modules necessary for protecting user and patient privacy (not shown here).
In some embodiments, the input module 102 can be configured to retrieve and automatically input/enter data through integration with hospital systems and devices, including but not limited to the electronic health record (EHR) 114 shown in
In one embodiment, a data acquisition system can be used to acquire various information. For example, data can be automatically electronically extracted from medical devices and/or systems. This extraction may be performed via an API, RS232 communication and/or other mechanisms.
The data acquisition system in this example sends and receives messages to establish communication with medical devices and systems, receives information or messages containing information and/or data, parses or processes the data according to standard or proprietary protocols, and stores the data in a repository accessible by the application. Data types and protocols may be of any suitable type and may include one or more of those described herein. The parsing of the data can include separating data elements and attributes, such as numerical value, string value, units of measure, date, time, or datetime stamp, etc. The processing of data can include scaling, normalizing, filtering, unit conversion, etc. The storage involves storing to, for example, a binary file, database, comma separated value (CSV) file, or other such container. Alternatively, or additionally, the data acquisition system can be used to send messages containing data or information to a clinical decision support application for near or real-time remote monitoring and diagnostic or therapeutic decision support.
The method 120 includes a number of steps or stages represented by blocks 151-156. The method 150 may include all of the steps or stages in the order discussed, may include fewer than all of the steps or stages, or may include additional steps or stages not shown.
At block 121, a medical device is configured for communication, and at block 122, a message is configured by the data acquisition system for communication and/or data request purposes. The message is then sent to initiate communication with the medical device (block 123). At block 124, the data acquisition system collects data from the medical device and may perform various other functions, such as reading and storing messages, parsing and processing data collected from messages, logging errors, storing data (e.g., in a file or database) and sending messages to maintain active communication with the medical device. Once data collection is complete, the data acquisition system sends a message to cease communication with the medical device (block 125) and may also convert stored data to other formats as desired (block 126).
In some embodiments, the data acquisition system can be software that runs on a PC or server, for instance as part of the input 102 and pre-processing 104 modules of
Referring again to
The output module 108 generates output data that can be sent directly to a user (e.g., a physician or patient) via the user interface 110 and/or stored or archived. For example, kidney health prediction information can be stored in a results database 116, exported manually or automatically, and/or rendered for display on an end-user device (e.g., a smartphone, computer, tablet, web browser). Output data may be sent to an electronic charting application (EHR), lab system, CPOE system, interface engine or any other suitable device, system or location. The output module may also send data to a user via e-mail, SMS message, or the like, e.g., via the network adapter 40.
In some embodiments, the system 100 may also include a post-processing module 118. The post-processing module 118 may be incorporated into the output module 108 as shown in
At block 151, the input module 102 receives health data, which may include measured and/or known input data. For example, the system 100 can utilize already existing health data for a patient, such as data typically collected by a routinely used device or sensor, by a medical device, sensor, or system in a hospital or by a physician, nurse, or other care provider, and can thus be performed in some instances without any new or invasive data collection.
Measured and/or known input data includes vitals, demographic data, lab data and other data collected from a patient and/or from similar patients. Examples of vitals include blood pressure (BP), respiratory rate (RR), heart rate (HR), and blood oxygen concentration (SpO2). Examples of demographic data include age, gender, weight and medical history, and examples of lab data include serum creatinine (SCr) levels, sodium (Na) levels, urea nitrogen levels and others. Other measured and/or known input data includes medication information, dialysis information, fluids intake and output (e.g. urine output (UO)), family history, comorbidities or chronic conditions, procedure or test results, other scores, etc. It is noted that the above examples are not intended to limit the number or type of known and/or measurement data.
In addition to measured and/or known input data, the input data can include estimations of unknown data values (i.e., estimated input data). For avoidance of doubt, estimations herein can be interchangeably used with calculated or computed data. Estimated input data includes data values that are not previously known or measured, but are instead calculated or estimated based on known information.
For example, at block 152, the pre-processing module 104 or the prediction module 106 of system 100 defines assumed inputs for use in estimating unknown input values. The assumed inputs can be applied to various formulae (block 153) to generate estimated inputs (block 154).
Estimated inputs include, e.g., estimated lab results, vital signs and fluid measurements. For example, an assumed glomerular filtration rate (GFR) can be used to estimate baseline or estimated serum creatinine (SCr) levels. Various formulae can be used to derive estimated inputs, such as Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equations and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations. Other physiology-based ordinary or partial differential dynamic equations can also be used to derive estimated inputs.
At block 155, the input data (including measured and/or known input data and/or estimated input data) is sent to the prediction module 106, which predicts a kidney condition and optionally generates a severity or probability score based on one or more guidelines, rules and/or models (referred to herein collectively as “models”).
The models may include any guidelines, formulae, rules, models or algorithms that enable a prediction of the kidney condition. Examples of such models also include physiology, correlation, time series, nonlinear input to output mappers, algebraic equations, first principle models, deterministic and/or stochastic models, and/or inference systems based on clinical or inferred rules. Examples of such models include various clinical guidelines for detection and/or staging of disease, such as Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria, Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria, and/or Risk Injury Failure Loss End-Stage (RIFLE) criteria. The models may include formulae such as formulae for computing baseline serum creatinine or baseline glomerular filtration rate (e.g. MDRD and CKD-EPI).
At block 156, the output module 108 outputs kidney health prediction information, which includes a prediction of a kidney condition and/or a kidney health (severity) score. The output module 108 is configured to provide various information including the result of applying the input data to the guidelines, rules and/or models.
The health prediction information includes an indication or description of the predicted kidney condition, and may also include an indication of a level of confidence of the predicted kidney condition. The level of confidence may be associated with a single prediction of a kidney condition, or multiple predictions of the kidney condition.
For example, the predicted kidney condition is a prediction that the patient has an Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) and the severity score is an AKI stage (i.e., stage 1-3, or 0 for no AKI stage). However, embodiments described herein are not so limited. For example, the predicted kidney condition can be an AKI, reversible kidney damage, (and, e.g., a score indicating the level of damage), irreversible kidney damage, recurrent kidney injury, acute kidney disease, intrinsic kidney disease, or extrinsic kidney disease. It is noted that a prediction of whether a kidney disease is extrinsic or intrinsic, or whether the kidney disease is reversible or not enables the prediction to be associated with an actionable therapeutic response. For example, as discussed further below, a predicted kidney condition may be output with enough specificity (e.g., including details related to extrinsic vs. intrinsic and/or details related to reversible vs. non-reversible) to allow a user to readily identify an appropriate treatment or therapy.
In one embodiment, the prediction is a single prediction, e.g., a single AKI stage prediction. The AKI stage prediction can be associated with an indication of a level of confidence in the form of a confidence interval or score.
The confidence score can be calculated in various ways. For example, the confidence score can be calculated based on one or more of the following metrics:
In one embodiment, the indication of a level of confidence is based on generating a plurality of predictions and providing a confidence score (e.g. including probability) indicating a level of confidence of each prediction. For example, multiple predictions may be generated by re-computing or re-deriving estimated inputs using different formulae and/or using different assumed input values. In another example, multiple predictions are generated by re-sampling assumed or baseline inputs, and/or by re-calculating the prediction using different models or using different input values to the same model(s). In another example, multiple predictions are generated by random perturbation to known inputs and re-calculating the prediction using different input values to the same model(s). Random selections and/or perturbations may be selected using any of various approaches and simulations, such as a Monte Carlo-like simulation or bootstrapping algorithm. Examples of values that can be perturbed or selected include one or more input values, a guideline, a rule, a model used for estimating outputs, and a formula or a model used for estimating inputs.
For example, a predicted AKI stage includes multiple predictions, each of which is associated with a level of confidence and/or probability. Each prediction can be presented to a user, or only the most likely prediction (and its confidence and/or probability) can be presented.
For example, the prediction module 106 receives health data for a patient that includes both urine output (UO) and serum creatinine (SCr). The prediction module 106 generates a first prediction that includes an AKI stage calculated by applying UO values to selected models (e.g., RIFLE, AKIN, KDIGO, and/or a neural network or other model developed/trained to predict AKI stage). The prediction module 106 also generates a second prediction that includes an AKI stage calculated by applying SCr values to the same models. A confidence score is generated for each prediction, and both predictions with their associated confidence scores are presented to a user via the user interface 110, or only the most likely prediction (the prediction associated with the highest confidence score) is presented.
Different predictions can be generated by using a different combination of models and/or inputs and/or assumed inputs and/or estimated inputs. For example, multiple predictions (e.g., AKI stages) can be derived for a given time or time frame by running measured and/or known inputs and estimated inputs through alternative models. In another example, assumed inputs are run through different formulae used for estimated inputs in order to get different estimated inputs (re-estimated inputs), and each set of estimated inputs is applied to selected models to get different outputs. In another example, different input values are selected (for example, at random from within the 95% confidence interval of that input) and those randomly sampled inputs are applied to the same models to get different outputs.
The following are additional examples of re-estimated inputs:
In one embodiment, where multiple outputs are generated (by re-processing or re-sampling), the confidence score may be selected based on a population's outputs, an individual's historical outputs or the individual's current inputs (given re-processed/re-sampled inputs to get multiple outputs at a single time point).
Referring again to
The prediction algorithm can utilize various input data to predict the condition. For example, input data can be applied to the prediction algorithm in real time or otherwise as new data becomes available. For example, the prediction algorithm is executed as frequently as ICU (intensive care unit) data or other data (e.g., electronic health record (EHR) data) is updated or new data is available. Input data can be sent to the prediction algorithm on a timed-basis, on user request for new/updated scores, on user action at a user interface, and/or on an event-basis (e.g. when the most or least frequently measured input of all the inputs needed for the prediction algorithm is recorded).
The prediction algorithm maps inputs to a kidney health score, such as an AKI score (e.g., stage number) or a probability. Other severity scores may include, e.g., percentage of kidney function, a number score from a selected range (e.g., 0 to 100), a visual indicator showing severity by color or shade (such as a heat map or a traffic light display), or any other visual indicator (e.g., a dial, like a car speedometer with colored regions and a needle indicator).
For example, the kidney health score can be portrayed via a traffic light pattern where green is very low or no risk of AKI, yellow is an intermediate risk of AKI and red is high risk of AKI. Thresholds of AKI risk can be based on population studies, which can be periodically updated (e.g., every week from a selected location or region such as hospital location or geographic region), or updated after data has been collected from a number of patients.
Outputs that can be generated by the prediction algorithm include a) a likelihood of kidney failure, b) an assessment of the nature of the kidney condition (e.g., whether pre-renal, intra-renal or post-renal, and/or whether intrinsic or extrinsic), c) a severity of the kidney condition (e.g. stage or probability), d) whether the kidney condition is reversible (or not) or likely to be reversed with minimal intervention (e.g. fluid-responsive vs. tubular damage requiring more intervention); and/or e) the length of time it will take for the kidneys to enter the predicted condition.
The prediction algorithm produces a kidney health score as an indication the predicted health of the kidney function of a specific patient. The prediction algorithm can produce a kidney health score at any desired time or with any desired frequency. For example, a kidney health score can be output in real time at every instance that new input data (of that patient) is presented.
Mathematically, the prediction algorithm maps health data from the input module 102 to the output module 108 based on a nonlinear correlation between input values and kidney conditions and/or scores. The correlation may be built/trained using previously collected patient data (e.g., EHR for a given patient and/or data regarding similar patients).
Examples of models or algorithms that provide the above-mentioned correlation include neural network (shallow or deep), nonlinear regression (logistical, polynomial, etc.), inference engine (fuzzy, neuro-fuzzy, support vector machine, etc.), and genetic algorithm (GA) clustering. The prediction algorithm is not so limited and can provide the correlation in any of various ways, including other machine learning, data mining and/or artificial intelligence (AI) approaches.
Each neuron 162 in the input layer represents an input value shown as a value X (e.g., an assumed, estimated, or measured, or known input such as UO, SCr, body weight, GFR). One value is output from each neuron 162, and each output is given a weight coefficient (or simply a weight). The weighted sum of each output (represented by an arrow) forms an input to each neuron 164 in a first intermediate (hidden) layer H. Each neuron 164 is a computational unit represented by a mathematical function that computes a value by processing its input through a math function (ƒ). The sum of the weighted outputs of the math function (ƒ) of neurons 164 are applied as inputs to neurons 166, each of which is a computational unit represented by a mathematical function (ƒ). Examples of ƒ are sigmoid, hyperbolic tangent, softmax, rectified linear unit (ReLU), leaky ReLU, parameterized ReLU, etc.
Functions ƒ can be the same or different. In this example, the arguments of functions ƒ represent weighted sums of their inputs. X is the vector of input neurons 162, X·W is a dot product of the vector X, W is a weight vector (W1 in this example), and ƒ(X·W) is a function of this dot product. H is an output of the neurons 164 (H1 in this example), ƒ(H·W) is a function of the dot product of the vector H and a weight vector W (W2 in this example), and lastly Y is the output (value, vector, etc.) of the Neural Network. The output Y can be the weighted sum of outputs from the neurons 166 as applied to neuron 168, which calculates a kidney health score. In the example of
The Neural Network structure can be shallow (no or single hidden layer) or deep (two or more hidden layers), fully or partially connected, recurrent, convolutional, adaptive, tap-delay, etc. The network could exhibit feedforward, feedback, lateral, reflexive, or gated, or other connections. Other types of linear or nonlinear mappers (between input and output) can also be utilized.
The neural network may be used periodically, in real time as new data comes in, or otherwise. For example, every time an input patient data record is presented a forward computation produces a kidney health score. This can be run for a single patient or for multiple patients in parallel.
The prediction algorithm may be developed or trained using a variety of mathematical approaches. Development of the prediction algorithm is based on an understanding of the clinical problem, for example, knowledge of patient's symptoms and/or measurements and their general relationship to kidney conditions and kidney function. In one embodiment, input data is collected retrospectively from a patient, other healthy patients (e.g., of similar demographics) and patients having kidney conditions with corresponding disease information via annotation or otherwise.
Relevant input data (clinical, demographic, physiological, lab results, etc.) is selected using univariate analysis and/or other methods to test the power of predictability of the kidney condition using an individual input feature. Relevant input data, or a set of relevant input data, may also be selected using multivariate analysis and/or other methods to test the power of predictability of the kidney conditions using a set of input features.
If a neural network is employed, a random set of weight coefficients for each neuron may be initially selected. An iterative optimization algorithm (which may be or include a learning algorithm) may be used to update the values of the weight coefficients every time an input data set with corresponding disease information is presented.
An iterative optimization algorithm can be steepest descent (back propagation, with or without momentum learning), any gradient-based (1st or 2nd order) optimization algorithm such as: Newton's, Davidon-Fletcher-Powell, Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shannon, Conjugate Gradients, etc., any gradient-free (zero-order) optimization algorithm such as: Powell, Zangwill, Hooke-Jeeves, etc., or others with or without momentum learning (e.g. stochastic gradient descent, Adam, Nadam, etc.).
A supervised learning algorithmic approach, using, for example, a computational/prediction algorithm like a neural network, uses collected healthy and sick patients' data for training. Training is accomplished before the prediction algorithm can be useful. Training generally includes using collected data (from healthy and sick patients) in order to compute a set of weight coefficients iteratively, typically, until one or more accuracy criteria are met. When these weights are computed, the neural network can be used for prediction.
Once the optimization algorithm is complete, a final set of weight coefficients is set, and the (trained) computation/prediction algorithm is ready to be used to generate prediction information regarding a kidney condition and/or kidney health score (e.g., a severity and/or probability score).
In one embodiment, the computation/prediction algorithm can be run in a static mode where coefficients are kept constant as new data is received and the prediction algorithm is repeatedly executed. In another embodiment, shown in
For example, a prediction module 180 receives input data from an input module 182. The prediction module may be, for example, included in the prediction/evaluation module 28 and/or the prediction module 155. In this example, the prediction module executes a computation algorithm 184 and a learning algorithm 186 that is prompted or triggered by a learning event 188. The prediction module 180 outputs data to an output module 190, e.g., sends data to a medical professional.
The learning portion of the prediction algorithm may use similar optimization techniques as those described above, but with updated data. The updates can be updated using the learning portion at various times and intervals. For example, the learning can be performed at different schedules, spanning different time periods, and/or for different patient groups.
Learning steps, in one embodiment, are as follows: 1) define the schedule at which to update, 2) define the time period over which to retrieve patient data to be used in the update, 3) define the patient group from data is retrieved, 4) input new patient data to the optimization algorithm, and 5) update weight coefficients. Times and/or schedules at which to update include, e.g., daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, and time periods over which to retrieve data include, e.g., weekly, monthly, yearly. Patient groups can be selected from, e.g., single units (ICU), multiple units (ICUs), multiple hospitals and multiple geographical locations (e.g., multi-states or countries vs. singular). With reference to
An example of developing the prediction algorithm and generating a prediction is discussed as follows with reference to
Initially, a structure, such as the neural network 160, is selected. In this example, the neural network 160 includes an input layer X that includes neurons 162 representing a number p of input values (e.g., BP, RR, HR, etc. from a patient). An output layer Y includes one or more neurons 168, where each neuron 168 provides an output value (e.g., health score of a disease, a calculated physiological variable like kidney health, etc.). A number N of intermediate, or hidden, layers H provide the structure of this mathematical network. Each hidden layer has a number of neurons. For example, layer H1 includes three neurons 164, and layer H2 includes two neurons 166. Any number N of layers may be included in the neural network 160.
Associated with every connection (shown by lines connecting two (but could be more) neurons to each other) is a weight coefficient. Each hidden and output neuron sums its weighted inputs possibly along with an additive bias B. For example, an individual bias value B can be calculated for each neuron. The weights (W) and biases (B) are referred to as parameters, and each can be calculated using, e.g., training data and an iterative optimization algorithm as discussed above. Once the parameters are found, the whole network can then be used as a straightforward computation of inputs giving outputs.
When the network is used to calculate a prediction including a health score (e.g., an AKI score), which is computed every time a new input vector (X) is presented. A confidence interval or score may be presented with each health score.
An output of the prediction algorithm can be an AKI score (as described), a reversible kidney damage score, or an intrinsic or extrinsic kidney disease score, or a pre-renal, intra-renal, or post-renal injury score. Predicting kidney disease that is reversible or not, or intrinsic or extrinsic, helps to link the prediction output to an actionable (meaningful) therapeutic response.
The output module 108 receives results from the prediction algorithm, stores the data to an outputs/results database (OutDB) for future use in learning/updating of the prediction algorithm or retrieval, runs a set of display rules and rendering logic to provide instructions on what should be displayed and how it should be displayed on the user interface 110, and/or presents the kidney health results to the user interface 110 for display. In other embodiments, the display logic may run on the host computer where the user interface 110 is accessed.
Examples of outputs include (depending on the different embodiment and what it was trained to output) a kidney health score (e.g., an AKI stage, percentage of kidney function, severity of kidney damage, etc.), whether the predicted condition is an intrinsic or extrinsic kidney disease, whether the condition is a pre-renal, renal, or post-renal kidney disease, and/or whether the kidney condition is a reversible kidney injury, a time to kidney injury and/or other relevant information. Outputs may also include suggestions such as further diagnostic tests and/or therapy options (e.g., after assessing kidney health and processing other patient clinical and physiological information).
A prediction of a kidney condition that is output according to embodiments described herein may include a classification, description and/or other detail sufficient to allow a physician or other user to readily identify an appropriate therapy or treatment. For example, the prediction includes a description of a disease or condition that is known to have an associated therapy or treatment, a description of a disease or condition that is closely related to a known therapy or treatment, or at least includes a description that has sufficient detail and is specific enough to allow a user to identify an appropriate therapy or treatment. Examples of such detail include whether the predicted condition is an intrinsic or extrinsic kidney disease and/or whether the condition is a pre-renal, renal, or post-renal kidney disease.
Thus, in any of the aspects or embodiments described herein, the description provides methods of treating a disease or condition, e.g., AKI, comprising the steps of performing a method as described herein to predict, diagnose or characterize the disease or condition, and further including a step of administering a therapeutic modality, e.g., pharmacologic or procedural, or modifying an existing treatment regimen, wherein the treatment or modification of an existing treatment regimen is effective for treating or ameliorating a symptom of the disease or condition, e.g., AKI. In certain embodiments, the pharmacologic therapeutic comprises at least one of a steroid, cyclophosphamide, a diuretic such as furosemide, a vasopressor or a combination thereof. In certain embodiments, the therapeutic procedure comprises hemofiltration, hemodialysis, surgery, or the like. In certain embodiments, modifying an existing treatment regimen includes discontinuing the administration of a therapeutics, e.g., an ACE inhibitor, ARB antagonist, aminoglycoside, penicillin, NSAID or paracetamol.
The presentation of the results of the prediction algorithm can be in the form of, e.g., tabulated values, plots of current or historic values in time, with or without confidence intervals, inputs to subsequent inference algorithms that could be used for specificity of diagnosis or for therapy, other visualization means (e.g. damage % specified at the spatial (anatomical) or functional region), likelihood to be reversible, counter/timer until injury event, trajectory indicator of illness or forecast (e.g., where magnitude of score/damage is indicated by length or width/boldness of arrow, and direction indicates slope/trend from historic values or toward future values) and others. Results can be presented, e.g., in tabular form and/or in graphical form where desired on a static or a mobile monitor.
Various aspects of the system can be customized or configured by a user, for example, through the user interface 110. For example, the interface can be used to allow a user to select how inputs are calculated (e.g., choice of how to calculate base SCr, choice of how to calculate estimated GFR), and allow the user to select the models used in generating predictions. These user selections will change which formula for estimating inputs 153 is used in 150 and/or which model 155 is used in 150, and/or which computer algorithm is used in the prediction module 106 of 100.
Referring again to
Referring to
Additionally, as shown in
Upon clicking the Renal Watch button in
The user enters the demographic information (e.g., age, weight, sex, and race) and baseline information (catheter insert or first UO (urine output) measurement time), a GFR (glomerular filtration rate) calculation method, a baseline SCr (serum creatinine) calculation method, and/or baseline SCr information. The fields labeled with an asterisk require a user selection; those without it can use default or already/previously selected values. For example, the default or already/previously selected sex is male and the default or already/previously selected GFR method is Modified Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD). Other embodiments may include additional selections for calculating a baseline serum creatinine or estimated GFR, such as the Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration and the Cockcroft Gault formulas. Clicking the encircled x to the right of an input/edit box will clear its contents and allow for re-entry.
It is noted that the manual data entry in the embodiments described herein can also occur automatically via the aforementioned input module 102 (
Referring to
Once data entry is entered in the Add Measurement modal (
In the example of
The user can tap or otherwise engage a “Therapy” button to prompt the Renal Watch application to present a therapy recommendation. It is noted that references to tapping or clicking are examples of how a user can interact with displayed features, and are not intended to limit how a user can engage with a feature to prompt a certain function.
Referring to
If no recommendations are available, the Renal Watch application can prompt a user to enter information and complete a high-risk checklist assessment for the patient's chronic or acute conditions or extrinsic exposures (e.g., community, environmental, infection, etc.). Upon determining the high-risk assessment, the recommendations can be updated.
In further embodiments, each therapy recommendation can be clicked or otherwise engaged to open a new screen revealing relevant data needed to support a user's action for compliance with the recommendation. For example, clicking the recommendation “Check for drug dose changes” (
A user can edit or adjust measurement data by engaging, for example, the “Measurements & Stages” section by tapping/clicking of a displayed measurement. The user will then be shown an “Edit Measurement” screen, an example of which is shown in
Upon tapping/clicking of a “Sort By” button in the “Measurements & Stages” section, a sort modal displays data attributes which can be used to sort the data in ascending or descending order by clicking the respective arrows (e.g. Date descending or Max stage ascending). An example of the data attributes is shown in
The user can view the measurement and/or stage data in formats other than a list. For example, the data can be plotted or otherwise displayed in a graphical format. In
Examples of “Guidelines” and “Contact” views are shown in
An “Abbreviations” section (
The “References” section may include links to source or reference material for the respective guidelines, formulas, and/or therapy recommendations. These may be links to internet pages, scientific articles, publications, etc. containing information about the rules implemented, their performance, or other pertinent information.
Additional examples of the “Therapy” screen are shown in
As shown in the exemplary reports view of
In other embodiments, a reports view may also be available for an individual patient. In such a view, trend information on the patient's health progression can be displayed, as well as amount of fluids, meds, or intervention, or timing of those interventions, relative to disease (stage) onset or progression.
In other embodiments, a scenarios button and view could enable the user to run scenarios of different guidelines, baselines, initial conditions, or assumptions and show in plot, tabularized, or summary/report view the resulting current or forecasted kidney health stage under these scenarios. This could be presented with a confidence interval over all scenarios run. In other embodiments, the scenarios can be intervention scenarios and the resulting forecasting kidney health under different interventions can be shown. Further, the therapy recommendations can include can be customized per geographical region or can be enhanced to show those that are most cost effective. For instance, suggested or recommended drugs can be displayed with their approximate cost in a particular geographical region.
In other embodiments, the AKI stage can be the presence or severity of other kidney conditions or diseases and the forecasting of those kidney conditions in time.
In other embodiments, a multi-patient view can be included that displays the predicted AKI stage and other predicted renal health information. The therapy recommendations and/or the actions/notifications may be updated to reflect additional prophylactic or preventive interventions. An additional icon may be used. Trend information or a plot of forecasted renal health or disease stage may be shown on this screen.
The “Actions” tab of the profile view (
The menu bar or main screen where the user logs in may also contain several navigation options and ways to change or update profile, preferences, and ways to change or upgrade product or license subscription. If the application main screen eventually provides a portal to multiple products, the user can be shown a list of possible products upon login and would select the application s/he wishes to run. Alternatively, a switch can be applied (e.g. slider or drop down) to allow the provider to switch from a renal health focused application to a lung or heart focused application.
In other embodiments, when forecasted renal stage is displayed, the main page may include a learning or prediction button. Upon clicking, the learning button on the main page provides an option where a user decides to re-train the prediction algorithm based on the patients they have seen in a pre-determined or customizable number of days or weeks. The prediction button would update the prediction of kidney health (including a predicted stage) a pre-determined or customizable number of hours or days in the future.
The following is a list of characteristics and features of the embodiments described herein. It is noted that all of the characteristics or features may be included, or a subset thereof may be included.
The following are embodiments of the present invention:
A system for assessing kidney health, the system comprising: a processing device including: an input module configured to receive input values related to kidney function of a patient; a prediction module comprising a computation algorithm and/or a model configured to predict a kidney condition and calculate a kidney health score related to at least one of a severity and a probability of the predicted kidney condition, the kidney health score calculated based on the one or more input values; and an output module configured to present the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score to a medical professional.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the output module is configured to perform at least one of: presenting a diagnostic protocol for diagnosing the predicted kidney condition, and recommending one or more diagnostic tests for evaluating the kidney function.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the output module is configured to present at least one of a treatment protocol for treating the predicted kidney condition, and a recommendation as to an adjustment of an existing treatment protocol.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the output module is configured to store the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score, and output at least one of a textual, audial, and visual representation of the predicted kidney condition in at least one of an e-mail, an SMS message, an alert, an alarm, a graphical user interface and a display.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein at least one of the prediction module, the computation algorithm and/or the model is configured to calculate at least one of a level of confidence and a probability that the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score are accurate.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the input values include at least one known input value and/or at least one estimated input value, and the at least one of the level of confidence and the probability is calculated based on a combination of the input values and performance of the model and/or the algorithm, the model and/or the algorithm configured to output the kidney health score based on the input values.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the at least one known input value is at least one of a measured physiological variable, a vital sign, a lab test result, a demographic, a comorbid condition, and an intervention (e.g. dialysis, fluid, or medication).
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the at least one estimated input value is estimated using at least one of an inference, a correlation, a regression, an algebraic equation, an ordinary differential equation and a partial differential equation.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the prediction module is configured to calculate a probability that the predicted kidney condition is accurate, and calculate the level of confidence based on the probability.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the probability includes at least one of a probability score and a probability distribution.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the probability score is calculated by performing at least one of: predicting the kidney health score according to a first guideline, rule or model and generating a first prediction, predicting the kidney health score according to a second guideline, rule or model and generating a second prediction, comparing the first prediction to the second prediction, and estimating a probability that the patient has the predicted kidney condition based on the comparison; and randomly selecting a first plurality of input values and performing a first prediction of the kidney health score according to the first guideline, rule or model, randomly selecting a second plurality of input values and performing a second prediction of the kidney health score according to the first guideline, rule or model, comparing the first prediction to the second prediction, and estimating a probability that the patient has the predicted kidney health score based on the comparison.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the random selection is based on a Monte Carlo-like simulation or bootstrapping or similar approach or simulation on perturbations of at least one of the input values, a guideline, a rule, a model used for estimating outputs, and a formula or a model used for estimating inputs.
The system of one or more embodiments, further comprising a pre-processing module configured to pre-process the input values and store the pre-processed input values and processed health data to an inputs database.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the pre-processing module is configured to train a learning algorithm based on health data from a plurality of patients, the health data including data related to healthy patients and data related to patients having the predicted kidney condition.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the kidney health score is calculated based on a trained computation/prediction algorithm, the training performed by a learning algorithm, the learning algorithm trained based on health data from a plurality of patients, the health data including data related to healthy patients and data related to patients having the predicted kidney condition.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the learning algorithm includes a mathematical process to update weights, coefficients, biases, and/or parameters of a nonlinear mapping function of the input values to one or more output values, the one or more output values including the kidney health score.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the nonlinear mapping function includes a set of rules or guidelines.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the learning algorithm includes a deep learning neural network (DLNN).
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the learning algorithm includes a differential equation-based model where parameters have physiological meaning, or a differential equation-based model where parameters do not have physiological meaning (e.g. time series models).
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the prediction module is configured to update the trained computation/prediction algorithm based on new health data from a plurality of patients.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the plurality of patients are selected over a selected range of time from at least one of a selected care unit or facility, a selected geographical location, and a selected subset of a patient population.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the prediction module is configured to calculate the kidney health score based on a nonlinear mapping function of the input values to one or more output values, the one or more output values including the kidney health score.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the nonlinear mapping function is a deep learning neural network (DLNN).
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the nonlinear mapping function is a differential equation-based model where parameters have physiological meaning, or a differential equation-based model where parameters do not have physiological meaning (e.g. time series models).
The system of one or more embodiments, further comprising a post-processing module configured to perform at least one of: storing the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score in a results database, and performing an inference using the kidney health score to provide an advisory to a user.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the advisory is at least one of a diagnostic protocol, a therapeutic protocol and an adjustment to a therapy.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the input module is configured to establish communication with a medical device and/or system and receive input data therefrom.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the predicted kidney condition is at least one of an acute kidney injury (AKI), reversible kidney damage, an intrinsic kidney disease, an extrinsic kidney disease, a pre-renal condition, an intrarenal condition, and a post-renal condition.
The system of one or more embodiments, wherein the predicted kidney condition is represented by at least one of a predicted AKI stage, a percentage of remaining kidney function and a percentage of a kidney that is injured or damaged.
A method of assessing kidney health, the method comprising: receiving, by an input module, input values related to kidney function of a patient; predicting, by a prediction module comprising a computation algorithm and/or a model, a kidney condition and calculating a kidney health score related to at least one of a severity and a probability of the predicted kidney condition by a prediction module, the kidney health score calculated based on the one or more input values; and presenting, by an output module, the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score to a medical professional.
The method of one or more embodiments, further comprising performing, by the output module, at least one of: presenting a diagnostic protocol for diagnosing the predicted kidney condition, and recommending one or more diagnostic tests for evaluating the kidney function.
The method of one or more embodiments, further comprising presenting, by the output module, at least one of a treatment protocol for treating the predicted kidney condition, and a recommendation as to an adjustment of an existing treatment protocol.
The method of one or more embodiments, further comprising storing the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score, and outputting at least one of a textual, audial, and visual representation of the predicted kidney condition in at least one of an e-mail, an SMS message, an alert, an alarm, a graphical user interface and a display.
The method of one or more embodiments, further comprising calculating at least one of a level of confidence and a probability that the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score are accurate.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the input values include at least one known input value and at least one estimated input value, and the at least one of the level of confidence and the probability is calculated based on a combination of the input values and performance of the algorithm and/or the model, the algorithm and/or the model configured to output the kidney health score based on the input values.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the at least one known input value is at least one of a measured physiological variable, a vital sign, a lab test result, a demographic, a comorbid condition, and an intervention (e.g. dialysis, fluid, or medication).
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the at least one estimated input value is estimated using at least one of an inference, a correlation, a regression, an algebraic equation, an ordinary differential equation and a partial differential equation.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the prediction module is configured to calculate a probability that the predicted kidney condition is accurate, and calculate the level of confidence based on the probability.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the probability includes at least one of a probability score and a probability distribution.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the probability score is calculated by performing at least one of: predicting the kidney health score according to a first guideline, rule or model and generating a first prediction, predicting the kidney health score according to a second guideline, rule or model and generating a second prediction, comparing the first prediction to the second prediction, and estimating a probability that the patient has the predicted kidney condition based on the comparison; and randomly selecting a first plurality of input values and performing a first prediction of the kidney health score according to the first guideline, rule or model, randomly selecting a second plurality of input values and performing a second prediction of the kidney health score according to the first guideline, rule or model, comparing the first prediction to the second prediction, and estimating a probability that the patient has the predicted kidney health score based on the comparison.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the random selection is based on a Monte Carlo-like simulation or bootstrapping or similar approach or simulation on perturbations of at least one of the input values, a guideline, a rule, a model used for estimating outputs, and a formula or a model used for estimating inputs.
The method of one or more embodiments, further comprising pre-processing the input values and storing the pre-processed input values and processed health data to an inputs database by a pre-processing module, wherein the pre-processing includes at least one of filtering, outlier removal, and scaling or normalizing.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the pre-processing includes training a learning algorithm based on health data from a plurality of patients, the health data including data related to healthy patients and data related to patients having the predicted kidney condition.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the kidney health score is calculated based on a trained computation/prediction algorithm, the training performed by a learning algorithm, the learning algorithm trained based on health data from a plurality of patients, the health data including data related to healthy patients and data related to patients having the predicted kidney condition.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the learning algorithm includes a mathematical process to update weights, coefficients, biases, and/or parameters of a nonlinear mapping function of the input values to one or more output values, the one or more output values including the kidney health score.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the nonlinear mapping function includes a set of rules or guidelines.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the learning algorithm includes a deep learning neural network (DLNN).
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the learning algorithm includes a differential equation-based model where parameters have physiological meaning, or a differential equation-based model where parameters do not have physiological meaning.
The method of one or more embodiments, further comprising updating the trained computation/prediction algorithm based on new health data from a plurality of patients.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the plurality of patients are selected over a selected range of time from at least one of a selected care unit or facility, a selected geographical location, and a selected subset of a patient population.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the prediction module calculates the kidney health score based on a nonlinear mapping function of the input values to one or more output values, the one or more output values including the kidney health score.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the nonlinear mapping function is a deep learning neural network (DLNN).
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the nonlinear mapping function is a differential equation-based model where parameters have physiological meaning, or a differential equation-based model where parameters do not have physiological meaning.
The method of one or more embodiments, further comprising performing, by a post-processing module, at least one of: storing the predicted kidney condition and the kidney health score in a results database, and performing an inference using the kidney health score to provide an advisory to a user.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the advisory is at least one of a diagnostic protocol, a therapeutic protocol and an adjustment to a therapy.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the input module is configured to establish communication with a medical device and/or system and receive input data therefrom.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the predicted kidney condition is at least one of an acute kidney injury (AKI), reversible kidney damage, an intrinsic kidney disease, an extrinsic kidney disease, a pre-renal condition, an intrarenal condition, and a post-renal condition.
The method of one or more embodiments, wherein the predicted kidney condition is represented by at least one of a predicted AKI stage, a percentage of remaining kidney function and a percentage of a kidney that is injured or damaged.
The method of one or more embodiments, further comprising the step of administering a therapeutic modality or modifying an existing treatment based on the output values, wherein the method effectuates the treatment or amelioration of at least on symptom of the predicted kidney condition.
The descriptions of the various embodiments of the present invention have been presented for purposes of illustration, but are not intended to be exhaustive or limited to the embodiments described. Many modifications and variations will be apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art without departing from the scope and spirit of the described embodiments. The terminology used herein was chosen to best explain the principles of the embodiments of the invention, the practical application or technical improvement over technologies found in the marketplace, or to enable others of ordinary skill in the art to understand the embodiments described herein.
This application claims priority to U.S. Provisional Application No. 62/791,324, filed on Jan. 11, 2019, the content of which is incorporated hereby by reference in its entirety. This application also claims priority to U.S. Provisional Application No. 62/930,986, filed on Nov. 5, 2019, the content of which is incorporated hereby by reference in its entirety.
Number | Date | Country | |
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62930986 | Nov 2019 | US | |
62791324 | Jan 2019 | US |