Patent Application
20230206333
The present disclosure relates to systems and methods for measuring data (e.g., revenue) and determining present and future trends, and providing a recommendation based on the measured data and determined trends.
In related art systems, data analysts typically study and analyze trends in economic data manually. For example, these analysts may study data in order to determine when to buy or sell a stock manually, or what the unemployment rate looks like at any given period.
However, the data used to determine these metrics may be unreliable due to the lack of availability of such proprietary information. For example, data which should not necessarily be correlated with a particular economic metric may not have been filtered out when analyzing the data, thereby introducing inaccuracies within the analysis.
Thus, there is a need for reliable data, and reliable methods for analyzing the data to determine present and future trends in this data.
Aspects of the present disclosure include a method for determining trends in a set of data, and providing a recommendation based on those determined trends. Examples of trends which are analyzed may include recommending when to buy or sell a stock associated with one or more companies. Other metrics may be determined, including a regional, national, or universal unemployment rate, public and not public company revenues and market shares, consumer behavior across several companies, a basket of stocks (e.g., more than one particular stock such as an entire stock portfolio), electronic indices, restaurant indices, how particular sectors in the workforce are performing, inflation, and trends for mutual funds. In particular, anything which may have an economic impact may be measured.
This method may include receiving data from a data supplier related to one or many companies. This data may include specific sales information, for example. This data may then be normalized and associated with the company based on the company's public trade name, for example.
Once this data is cleaned and normalized, this data may be associated with data, including but not limited to financial data. Financial data may include historical data for a company at quarterly increments, fiscal data, merger and acquisition (M&A) data, and current analyst data, for example However, the present example implementations are not limited thereto, and other data, directed to other fields or industries, may be substituted therefor, or combined therewith, without departing from the inventive scope.
Once the data is cleaned and normalized, and then associated with the financial data, a recommendation model may be generated using machine learning, based on the normalized information and the normalized historical data. Various machine learning algorithms may be applied in order to find the best fit for the generated model in order to generate a prediction for how the company, or other measured trend may behave at the present, e.g., today, or in the future. Optionally, a user may review the one or more determinations and make a decision or recommendation.
These machine learning algorithms, or recommendation models, enable a user to determine to make a recommendation as to when to take on a particular transaction, such as buying or selling a stock, for example. Various features are integrated into the recommendation models, including statistical analysis, correlations, and historic simulation.
Once a trading statistic model is fit to the revenue curve, a signal or indicator may be generated and provided, indicating whether the user should buy, sell, or do nothing. For example, the indicators may include a “strong buy”, indicating that the user should buy the stock soon. Another indicator may include a “strong sell”, indicating that the user should sell soon. The signal may also indicate how much stock to buy/sell, or when to buy/sell a stock, for example.
Additionally, to collect data, a private panel of users may be organized, wherein the users interact with a mobile application which collects user data and gives rewards in return (e.g., a cash-back app).
Further aspects of the present application may include a non-transitory computer readable medium having stored therein a program for making a computer execute a method of determining trends and generating a recommendation based on those trends. The method includes operations associated with the features disclosed in the detailed description.
Additional aspects of the present application may include a server apparatus having a memory and a processor. The memory may store collected data and historical data. The processor may execute a process including operations associated with the features disclosed in the detailed description.
Still further aspects of the present application may include a server apparatus. The server apparatus may include means for storing collected data and historical data, means for executing operations to achieve functions operations associated with the features disclosed in the detailed description.
Exemplary implementation(s) of the present invention will be described in detail based on the following figures, wherein:
The following detailed description provides further details of the figures and example implementations of the present application. Reference numerals and descriptions of redundant elements between figures are omitted for clarity. Terms used throughout the description are provided as examples and are not intended to be limiting. For example, the use of the term “automatic” may involve fully automatic or semi-automatic implementations involving user or operator control over certain aspects of the implementation, depending on the desired implementation of one of ordinary skill in the art practicing implementations of the present application.
With a more complex and dynamic economy, there is a need for accurate data reflecting exactly what is going on in the economy at any given point in time. More specifically, in order to accurately determine the current state of the economy, to then be able to determine present and future trends in the economy, accurate data is required so that the recommendation itself is accurate.
For example, when considering purchasing a particular stock, a trader may consider corporate information related to the company associated with the stock. This corporate information may include, at a very high level, how much revenue a company is taking in, how much money the company lost for a particular period of time (e.g., quarter, month, year).
However, this general, broad data is often not an accurate depiction of how a company is actually behaving. For example, revenue for a clothing company may appear to be high overall, but when the data is broken down, the revenue may be coming from online sales primarily. Typically, stores with higher revenue from online sales end up closing several brick and mortar stores, because those stores are no longer profitable. Thus, a trader who is considering to buy that clothing company's stock may not want to purchase that stock if they know that those stores will likely close at a future point in time.
Unfortunately, without accurate data, a trader has little way of knowing how a particular trend will look in the future. Therefore, by collecting data and cleaning and normalizing that data, this cleaned data may be compared to historical data to determine how a particular trend will look in the future. Similarly, a trader may also not be able to assess present information, to make a decision or recommendation. According to the present example implementations, the cleaned data may be present data that is compared to historical data, to provide an analysis of current trends.
While the above example implementation describes determining trends related to the stock market, other metrics may be determined (e.g., obtained deterministically), including a regional, national, or universal unemployment rate, public and not public company revenues and market shares, consumer behavior across several companies, a basket of stocks (e.g., more than one particular stock such as an entire stock portfolio), electronic indices, restaurant indices, how particular sectors in the workforce are performing, inflation, and trends for mutual funds. In particular, any data or information which may have an economic impact may be measured.
As shown in
Simultaneously, or at a previous time, historic data may be gathered and organized via machine learning at 115. Then, at 120, this data may be compared with the historic data.
At 125, models may be generated to determine the best recommendation or evaluation of a particular trend. Then, at 130, the recommendation(s) may be provided.
In order to be able to accurately determine how a particular trend will look, various sources of data may be used. For example, a panel of individuals with particular qualifications or certifications may be organized in order to obtain data about their day to day transactions. This panel may be created by way of a mobile application, discussed in more detail in a later portion of this disclosure. Additionally, data may be anonymously crowd-sourced.
This data needs to be very specific and precise, for each and every transaction assessed. For example, information about the date of the transaction, the location that the transaction was undertaken, a description of the transaction, the amount of the transaction, how the transaction was paid for, and the identity of the person who undertook the transaction may be analyzed to help obtain and determine a particular trend.
Other data may be collected as well, including Global Positioning System (GPS) information, WiFi information, Bluetooth data, and the like. This data may be associated with a particular store or user identification based on the IP address or associated location data. Additionally, latitudinal and longitudinal data may be collected, as well as a time stamp of when that latitudinal and longitudinal data was collected.
Further, information related to a particular website which was visited by a user may be collected, including what web pages were viewed, a timestamp corresponding to a time that the website was visited, and how long the user spent on the website or each web page.
Mobile application usage data may also be tracked, including what features were viewed, a timestamp corresponding to a time that the application was visited, and how long the user spent on the application. This application usage data may be associated with a particular device identification, in order to further track and collect data.
Other relevant data may also be collected and analyzed for other metrics, including a regional, national, or universal unemployment rate, quarter revenues, sales trends of public and non-public companies, such as public and not public company revenues and market shares, consumer behavior across several companies, a basket of stocks (e.g., more than one particular stock such as an entire stock portfolio), electronic indices, restaurant indices, how particular sectors in the workforce are performing, inflation, and trends for mutual funds.
For example, employment data for a particular person may be collected in order to determine employment rate, or restaurant transactions may be collected and monitored to determine restaurant indices.
This collected data will be referred to as “raw data” hereafter, because this data has not yet been cleaned and normalized.
For example, according to the example implementations, in a credit card transaction that may be associated with a payment at a restaurant for a purchase (e.g., food), the description may include “tacob” in the description. The Example implementation may use assigned rules and metrics to assign a value of “taco” to “tacob”. Alternatively, the data may be filtered, such that description is transformed to “taco”. Depending on the circumstances, data that cannot be filtered based on the rules may be deleted.
If the filtered and associated data is considered to be relevant, then at 212, for the data determined to be relevant, machine learning is applied, to clean and normalize the data, and this data is stored and utilized in the process 100 at 215. If the filtered and associated data is considered to be irrelevant, then the data may be stored for future use at 220.
Once the raw data has been collected, this raw data may be cleaned and normalized to strengthen the value of the data. For example, the data may be associated with a particular stock. In an example implementation, if a user purchased food from Taco Bell, then the transaction may be associated with the Taco Bell stock. Alternatively, if a user visited Instagram or Facebook, that interaction may be associated with the Facebook stock, for example.
This raw data needs to be normalized to remove data which, on its face, is not wholly accurate. For example, if data related to a Walmart transaction is associated with the Walmart stock, then transactions which were completed on a Chase credit card may be filtered out in order to keep only transactions which were completed on the Walmart card. This filtering process helps to ensure that the data associated with the particular stock is an accurate depiction of the relationship between the company and a user/consumer.
This cleaning and normalizing process may be applied to the other metrics in other example implementations, including a regional, national, or universal unemployment rate, public and not public company revenues and market shares, consumer behavior across several companies, a basket of stocks (e.g., more than one particular stock such as an entire stock portfolio), electronic indices, restaurant indices, how particular sectors in the workforce are performing, inflation, and trends for mutual funds. For example, unemployment data may be filtered based on demographic information or geographic information, in order to accurately determine behavior in a particular area.
Once the raw data has been cleaned and normalized, models may be generated using machine learning in order to correlate historical data with the cleaned and normalized data. Months or years of historical data may be collected in order to establish this correlation.
Machine learning may be used to generate a result of the correlation, indicating the best combination or rules which would best represent the behavior of a particular metric. For example, once the data is correlated with historical data, machine learning algorithms may be applied to the data to determine how one or more companies is expected to behave, and provide such information to a user, such as for a recommendation engine or the like, but not limited thereto.
These one or more determinations may be provided for each quarter, and then the current or next quarter may be predicted using the machine learning algorithms. Then, the algorithm having the best fit may be selected, in order to provide for the best prediction.
This machine learning output is then fed into a recommendation model. These operations may be performed iteratively, such that a greater number of iterations results in increased accuracy of the best fit, and the corresponding determination.
In the recommendation model, a recommendation may be provided, suggesting when to take a particular action, or how a particular trend is expected to look at a given point in time in the future, in addition to providing relevant information regarding the current trend.
For example, based on historical data of a stock and the related stock index, a recommendation may be provided for which stock to buy or sell, when to buy or sell the stock, and how much to buy or sell. Alternatively, the recommendation model may illustrate how well a business or restaurant is expected to perform at a future point in time, as well as how the business or restaurant is currently performing, with an increased degree of accuracy. One or more appropriate recommendations (e.g., expand business coverage, maintain current inventory, decrease new orders) may be made with an increased degree of accuracy.
As described in an earlier portion of this disclosure, a mobile application may be provided to a group of users in order to collect data. This mobile application may be used across various devices with computing capabilities, including smartphone, smart watches, and virtual assistants, for example.
As shown in
The mobile application may function as a rewards application, where a panelist is given rewards based on accomplished tasks at 335. For example, a panelist may be given a reward for downloading the application and joining the rewards program. The panelist may also receive a reward for completing the user survey at 315.
These rewards may include giving cash back, providing discount codes, allowing access to certain application functionality, providing lottery tickets and other prizes, giving direct money back on a debit card or via a peer-to-peer mobile application such as Venmo or Cash App, or providing gift cards to a panelist.
Points may be earned daily, and every time a number of points exceeds a certain threshold, a reward corresponding to that point value may be offered to the panelist. These points may be awarded passively as well. For example, a panelist may leave their profiles active, without physically interacting with the account, and still be issued rewards. Rewards may also change based on the amount of money spent on a particular transaction.
Once the panelist downloads the mobile application at 305 and creates a user profile for joining the rewards program at 310, the panelist may take a survey at 315; as explained above, upon joining the rewards program at 310 and/or taking the survey at 315, the panelist may receive a reward at 335, and return to the process, as indicated by the two-way arrows in
When questions in the survey have been filled out, the application may automatically filter and sort the panelist based on the provided information at 320. This filtering process helps to calibrate the data, in order to adequately represent the population of panelists, as applied to the real world.
Based on what metrics are being measured, the mobile application may decide a panel size, in order to provide statistically significant data. This panel size may change based on what is being tracked, including stock information, a regional, national, or universal unemployment rate, public and not public company revenues and market shares, consumer behavior across several companies, a basket of stocks (e.g., more than one particular stock such as an entire stock portfolio), electronic indices, restaurant indices, how particular sectors in the workforce are performing, inflation, and trends for mutual funds.
This data may be updated periodically or automatically. For example, the mobile application may consider mortality, changes in user information or user demographics, in order to further filter and organize the panelists, to maintain the panel's statistical relevance.
A panelist may also provide other information at 325, aside from the survey, to receive additional rewards at 335, and return to the process, as indicated by the two-way arrows. For example, a panelist may connect their credit card and banking information to the application via an application programming interface (API) software and third party APIs.
Based on this information, the mobile application may track, for example, information about the date of a transaction, the location that the transaction was undertaken, a description of the transaction, the amount of the transaction, how the transaction was paid for, and the identity of the person who undertook the transaction may be analyzed to help determine a particular trend. Additionally, the mobile application may be provided with an interface or a functionality to provide one or more queries to the user. For example, the user may be queried for additional information if the current information is not sufficient, or to generate additional information or analysis (e.g., statistic survey).
Other data may be collected as well, including GPS, WiFi, Bluetooth data, and the like. This data may be associated with a particular store or user identification based on the IP address or associated location data. Additionally, latitudinal and longitudinal data may be collected, as well as a time stamp of when that latitudinal and longitudinal data was collected.
Further, information related to a particular website which was visited by a user may be collected, including what web pages were viewed, a timestamp corresponding to a time that the website was visited, and how long the user spent on the website or each web page.
Mobile application usage data may also be tracked, including what features were viewed, a timestamp corresponding to a time that the application was visited, and how long the user spent on the application. This application usage data may be associated with a particular device identification, in order to further track and collect data.
Once the mobile application has collected the data from the panelist, tracked relevant metrics, and filtered the panelists, the mobile application may provide the data as raw data to be cleaned and normalized at 330. An iterative loop is performed between providing the cleaned, normalized data at 330 and rewarding the panelist at 335, as shown in
An example of one or more devices 410-455 may be computing devices 55 described in
In some implementations, devices 410-425 and 455 may be considered user devices associated with the users of the enterprise. Devices 430-450 may be devices associated with service providers (e.g., used by the external host to provide services as described above and with respect to the collecting and storing data).
In some example embodiments, computing environment 500 may include one or more devices used as analog-to-digital converters, digital-to-analog converters, and/or radio frequency handlers.
Computing device 505 can be communicatively coupled to input/user interface 535 and output device/interface 540. Either one or both of input/user interface 535 and output device/interface 540 can be wired or wireless interface and can be detachable. Input/user interface 535 may include any device, component, sensor, or interface, physical or virtual, which can be used to provide input (e.g., keyboard, a pointing/cursor control, microphone, camera, Braille, motion sensor, optical reader, and/or the like). Output device/interface 540 may include a display, monitor, printer, speaker, braille, or the like. In some example embodiments, input/user interface 535 and output device/interface 540 can be embedded with or physically coupled to computing device 505 (e.g., a mobile computing device with buttons or touch-screen input/user interface and an output or printing display, or a television).
Computing device 505 can be communicatively coupled to external storage 545 and network 550 for communicating with any number of networked components, devices, and systems, including one or more computing devices of the same or different configuration. Computing device 505 or any connected computing device can be functioning as, providing services of, or referred to as a server, client, thin server, general machine, special-purpose machine, or another label.
I/O interface 525 can include, but is not limited to, wired and/or wireless interfaces using any communication or I/O protocols or standards (e.g., Ethernet, 802.11x, Universal System Bus, WiMax, modem, a cellular network protocol, and the like) for communicating information to and/or from at least all the connected components, devices, and network in computing environment 500. Network 550 can be any network or combination of networks (e.g., the Internet, local area network, wide area network, a telephonic network, a cellular network, satellite network, and the like).
Computing device 505 can use and/or communicate using computer-usable or computer-readable media, including transitory media and non-transitory media. Transitory media include transmission media (e.g., metal cables, fiber optics), signals, carrier waves, and the like. Non-transitory media include magnetic media (e.g., disks and tapes), optical media (e.g., CD ROM, digital video disks, Blu-ray disks), solid state media (e.g., RAM, ROM, flash memory, solid-state storage), and other non-volatile storage or memory.
Computing device 505 can be used to implement techniques, methods, applications, processes, or computer-executable instructions to implement at least one embodiment (e.g., a described embodiment). Computer-executable instructions can be retrieved from transitory media, and stored on and retrieved from non-transitory media. The executable instructions can be originated from one or more of any programming, scripting, and machine languages (e.g., C, C++, C #, Java, Visual Basic, Python, Perl, JavaScript, and others).
Processor(s) 510 can execute under any operating system (OS) (not shown), in a native or virtual environment. To implement a described embodiment, one or more applications can be deployed that include logic unit 555, application programming interface (API) unit 560, input unit 565, output unit 570, service processing unit 590, and inter-unit communication mechanism 595 for the different units to communicate with each other, with the OS, and with other applications (not shown). For example, service processing unit 990 may implement one or more processes described above. The described units and elements can be varied in design, function, configuration, or implementation and are not limited to the descriptions provided.
In some example embodiments, when information or an execution instruction is received by API unit 560, it may be communicated to one or more other units (e.g., logic unit 555, input unit 565, output unit 570, service processing unit 590). For example, input unit 565 may use API unit 560 to connect with other data sources so that the service processing unit 590 can process the information. Service processing unit 590 performs the filtering of panelists, the filtering and cleaning/normalizing of data, and generation of the results, as explained above.
In some examples, logic unit 960 may be configured to control the information flow among the units and direct the services provided by API unit 965, input unit 970, output unit 975, media identifying unit 980, media processing unit 985, service processing unit 990 in order to implement an embodiment described above. For example, the flow of one or more processes or implementations may be controlled by logic unit 960 alone or in conjunction with API unit 965.
Although a few example implementations have been shown and described, these example implementations are provided to convey the subject matter described herein to people who are familiar with this field. It should be understood that the subject matter described herein may be implemented in various forms without being limited to the described example implementations. The subject matter described herein can be practiced without those specifically defined or described matters or with other or different elements or matters not described. It will be appreciated by those familiar with this field that changes may be made in these example implementations without departing from the subject matter described herein as defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
This application is a continuation of U.S. patent application Ser. No. 16/997,667, filed Aug. 19, 2020, which claims the benefit of U.S. Patent Application No. 62/889,418, filed Aug. 20, 2019, which are both hereby incorporated herein by reference in their entireties.
| Number | Date | Country | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62889418 | Aug 2019 | US |
| Number | Date | Country | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parent | 16997667 | Aug 2020 | US |
| Child | 17881487 | US |
