Claims
- 1. A method for managing risk associated with one or more hydrocarbon reservoir exploitation strategies comprising:
a. developing a reservoir model that incorporates a stochastic model of one or more uncertain model parameters; b. identifying one or more goals for optimization; c. identifying said one or more hydrocarbon reservoir exploitation strategies for achieving said one or more goals based on said reservoir model and associated uncertain parameters; d. identifying control variables and restraints associated with each of said one or more decision strategies; e. identifying a set of equally probable reservoir model scenarios; f. formulating an objective function based on said one or more goals to determine the gain in value attributable to said one or more hydrocarbon reservoir exploitation strategies; and g. optimizing said objective function using said set of scenarios and said control variables and restraints for each of said one or more hydrocarbon reservoir exploitation strategies to determine the optimum gain in value at one or more risk levels.
- 2. The method of claim 1, wherein said one or more optimized goal is selected from the group consisting of maximizing net present value, maximizing hydrocarbon production, maximizing return on investment, minimizing cost, and maximizing reservoir hydrocarbon drainage.
- 3. The method of claim 1, wherein said one or more decision strategies are selected from the group consisting of installing control technology, drilling additional wells, upgrading surface facilities and performing well workovers.
- 4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
h. collecting additional information; i. determining a second set of scenarios based on said additional information; and j. optimizing said objective function based on said second set of scenarios to determine the optimum gain at one or more risk aversion levels.
- 5. The method of claim 4, further comprising:
k. comparing the gain from (g) to the gain from (j) at one or more common preferred risk levels to determine the value of said additional information.
- 6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:
h. formulating a second objective function wherein one of said set of scenarios is assumed to be deterministic; i. deterministically optimizing said second objective function to determine the gain attributable to the deterministic treatment of said scenario; j. determining the difference between the gain of (i) and the gain of (g) at a preferred risk level; and k. repeating (h), (i) and (j) for each scenario.
- 7. The method of claim 6, further comprising:
l. determining the average of the differences in gains obtained in (k) to determine the value of perfect information.
- 8. The method of claim 1, further comprising developing a decision table or efficient frontier based on the gain in value of the goal attributable to each of said one or more decision strategies.
- 9. The method of claim 1, wherein said objective function is defined as
- 10. The method of claim 1, wherein the objective function accounts for the cost associated with each of said one or more exploitation strategies.
- 11. The method of claim 1, further comprising a pricing model.
- 12. The method of claim 11, wherein said pricing model is stochastic.
RELATED APPLICATIONS
[0001] The present invention claims priority from U.S. Provisional Application Serial No. 60/384,065 filed May 29, 2002, incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.
Provisional Applications (1)
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Number |
Date |
Country |
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60384065 |
May 2002 |
US |