The present invention relates to the field of road safety technologies, and in particular, to a method and system for evaluating road safety based on multi-dimensional influencing factors.
With the development of social economy, the car ownership is gradually increased, which not only causes the road congestion, but also gradually increases the incidence of road traffic accidents. To reduce the incidence of road accidents and improve road safety, a variety of road safety analysis models are provided in the related research fields. There are two levels of road safety analysis models, where one is a road safety analysis model at the macro level, and the other is a road safety analysis model at the micro level. However, whether in the research field or the patent field, no relevant research comprehensively considers the correlation between the road safety analysis models at the macro level and the micro level. To establish a road safety analysis model only from the perspective of one dimension causes some deviation to analysis results. In addition, motor vehicle annual average daily traffic is considered as effective safety risk exposure, which is of great significance for measuring influencing factors and accident generation mechanisms. However, relevant literatures all assume that influence of the safety risk exposure is constant. Essentially, the influence should be elastic. With the change of the motor vehicle annual average daily traffic, the influencing factors have similarities and differences.
The objective of the present invention is to provide a method and system for evaluating road safety based on multi-dimensional influencing factors, to resolve the problems in the related art.
To achieve the foregoing objective, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
Further, the method includes: periodically obtaining historical traffic data of each sub-region in the limited region range within the preset duration, where the historical traffic data corresponding to each sub-region includes: population density N of the sub-region, GDP of the sub-region, road network density K of the sub-region, motor vehicle annual average daily traffic AADT1 of the sub-region, a green area ratio L1 of the sub-region, a residential area ratio L2 of the sub-region, a non-residential area ratio L3 of the sub-region, a road area ratio L4 of the sub-region, and an average driving speed V of the sub-region; and
Further, the foregoing step B includes: based on the historical traffic data of the sub-region within the preset duration and the historical traffic data of each traffic road in the sub-region within the preset duration, obtaining, for each traffic road corresponding to the sub-region according to the following formula:
Further, the foregoing step C includes: obtaining, for each traffic road included in the sub-region according to the following formula:
lnE2n=θ1T+θ2Jn+θ3Wn+θ4Qn+θ5T=0Tn+θ5T=1Tn+θ5T=0AADT2n+θ5T=1AADT2n+θ6An+θ7Dn+εn
Further, the constraint function in the foregoing step F is as follows:
and the method further includes:
A second aspect of the present invention provides a system for evaluating road safety based on multi-dimensional influencing factors, including:
A third aspect of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing software, where the software includes instructions that can be executed by one or more computers, and the instructions, when executed by the one or more computers, perform the operations of the method for evaluating road safety according to any one of the foregoing aspect.
Compared with the related art, the technical solutions adopted in the method and system for evaluating road safety based on multi-dimensional influencing factors provided in the present invention have the following technical effects:
In the present invention, based on the median value of each traffic data, the safety risk exposure corresponding to the sub-region and the safety risk exposure corresponding to each traffic road included in the sub-region are obtained, and the categorical variable corresponding to each safety risk exposure is further obtained. Considering the elastic change of safety risk exposure, a change of motor vehicle annual average daily traffic is affected by various influencing factors, so that an evaluation result of road safety is more objective and more authentic. In addition, a safety quantification model constructed under multi-dimensional conditions based on multi-dimensional consideration, takes into account the correlation of road safety in macro and micro conditions, so that an evaluation result of road safety is more accurate and comprehensive, and the application range of the method is wider.
The sole FIGURE is a flowchart of a method for evaluating road safety according to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention.
To better learn the technical content of the present invention, specific embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawing are used for description below.
Various aspects of the present invention are described in the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawing, which shows a number of illustrative embodiments. The embodiments of the present invention are not limited to those shown in the accompanying drawing. It should be understood that the present invention is realized by any one of the various ideas and embodiments described above and the ideas and implementations described in detail below. This is because the ideas and embodiments disclosed in the present invention are not limited to any implementations. In addition, some of the disclosed aspects of the present invention may be used alone or in any appropriate combination with other disclosed aspects of the present invention.
Referring to the sole FIGURE, the present invention provides a method for evaluating road safety based on multi-dimensional influencing factors, which can accurately determine the influence of various influencing factors on road accidents based on the macroscopic and microscopic road safety analysis models, and includes: respectively constructing, for each sub-region in a limited region range, a safety evaluation model through step A to step D, and obtaining, by using the safety evaluation model through step E to step F, influencing factors of safety of each traffic road in the sub-region and performing safety evaluation on the sub-region.
Research units are selected from the macro and micro dimensions. The research units in the macro dimension are determined as traffic analysis communities, and the research units in the micro dimension are determined as research roads in a traffic analysis community.
Step A: Periodically obtain, for a traffic analysis community, historical traffic data of the traffic analysis community within a preset duration and historical traffic data of each traffic road in the traffic analysis community within the preset duration, where the historical traffic data corresponding to each traffic analysis community includes: population density N of the traffic analysis community, GDP of the traffic analysis community, road network density K of the traffic analysis community, motor vehicle annual average daily traffic AADT1 of the traffic analysis community, a green area ratio L1 of the traffic analysis community, a residential area ratio L2 of the traffic analysis community, a non-residential area ratio L3 of the traffic analysis community, a road area ratio L4 of the traffic analysis community, and an average driving speed V of the traffic analysis community. Historical sample data corresponding to the traffic analysis community is shown in table 1:
Historical traffic data corresponding to each traffic road in the traffic analysis community includes: a traffic road length D, a traffic road lane quantity J, a traffic road width W, whether the traffic road is provided with an accommodation lane Q, motor vehicle annual average daily traffic AADT2 of the traffic road, A, intersection density A of the traffic road, and a traffic road grade D. The historical traffic data of each traffic road included in a single traffic analysis community is shown in table 2:
A traffic community b1 is selected as an example of this embodiment of the present invention, and then step B is entered.
Step B: Obtain safety risk exposure corresponding to the sub-region and safety risk exposure corresponding to each traffic road of the sub-region based on the historical traffic data of the sub-region b1 within the preset duration and the historical traffic data of each traffic road in the sub-region within the preset duration; quantify each safety risk exposure to obtain each categorical variable T corresponding to each safety risk exposure; classify the safety risk exposure of the roads based on a median value, where exposure lower than the median value is referred to as low-density motor vehicle daily traffic, and exposure higher than the median value is referred to as high-density motor vehicle daily traffic; assign a categorical variable T to each research unit based on the classified safety risk exposure, where for a research unit with high-density motor vehicle daily traffic, T=1, otherwise T=0; obtain, for each traffic road corresponding to the sub-region according to the following formula:
Step C: Construct, for each traffic road included in the sub-region b1, a road safety quantification sub-model based on the corresponding historical traffic data and the corresponding categorical variable T obtained in step B, to obtain road safety quantification sub-models respectively corresponding to the traffic roads in the sub-region, where three roads A1 to A3 in the sub-region b1 are taken as examples, and road safety quantification sub-models respectively corresponding to the three roads are as follows:
lnE21=θ1T+θ2+θ3W1+θ4Q1+θ5AADT21+θ6A1+θ7D1+ε2
lnE22=θ1T+θ2J2+θ3W2+θ4Q2+θ5AADT22+θ6A2+θ7D2+ε2
lnE23=θ1T+θ2J3+θ3W3+θ4Q3+θ5AADT23+θ6A3+θ7D3+ε2
Step D: Use, for each sub-region, a model group formed by a region safety quantification sub-model corresponding to the sub-region and road safety quantification sub-models respectively corresponding to traffic roads in the sub-region as a safety evaluation model corresponding to the sub-region, where an input by each sub-model in the model group is historical traffic data corresponding to the sub-model.
Step E: Obtain, according to the method in step A to step C, a region safety quantification sub-model corresponding to the sub-region and each road safety quantification sub-model based on actual traffic data of the sub-region and actual traffic data of each traffic road in the sub-region, and enter step F.
Step F: Solve, for the sub-region by using the safety evaluation model according to the method in step D, the region safety quantification sub-model corresponding to the sub-region and the road safety quantification sub-models by using a constraint function as a target, to obtain influencing factors of road safety of the sub-region, and perform safety evaluation on the sub-region and each traffic road in the sub-region according to the influencing factors.
Under a constraint condition, influence mechanisms of various influencing factors on road safety in different dimensions can be determined respectively. If a coefficient of an influencing factor is positively significant at a 95% confidence interval, it indicates that the influencing factor increases the incidence of accidents in traffic communities or roads; and if the coefficient of the influencing factor is negatively significant at the 95% confidence interval, it indicates that the influencing factor reduces the incidence of accidents in traffic communities or roads.
The experimental verification of the present invention is carried out under hypothetical data conditions. Taking an element N of the traffic community as an example, if β1>0 at the 95% confidence interval, it indicates that the population density of the traffic community is positively correlated with the incidence of road accidents, and greater population density indicates more accidents in the traffic community. If β1<0 at the 95% confidence interval, it indicates that the population density of the traffic community is negatively correlated with the incidence of road accidents, and greater population density indicates less accidents in the traffic community.
Although the present invention is described with reference to the foregoing preferred embodiments, the embodiments are not intended to limit the present invention. A person of ordinary skill in the art may make variations and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be subject to the claims.
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202111465931.5 | Dec 2021 | CN | national |
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PCT/CN2022/103535 | 7/4/2022 | WO |
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WO2023/098076 | 6/8/2023 | WO | A |
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