This application claims the benefit of priority from Chinese Patent Application No. 202210478850.7, filed on May 5, 2022. The content of the aforementioned application, including any intervening amendments thereto, is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.
This application relates to power supply and energy storage systems, and more particularly to a method for electricity-related security awareness of distributed power supply systems considering spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorms.
Rainstorm disasters occurred frequently in China in the past several years. The spatial distribution and duration of rainstorms are random, which is characterized by complex spatio-temporal variation characteristics, such as uneven spatio-temporal distribution of rainfalls, numerous rainstorm centers, and frequent local heavy rainfall, thereby making the occurrence of waterlogging in the distributed power supply systems random. Water accumulation caused by waterlogging will cause the leakage current of the power supply system to rise and exceed a limit, thereby causing electric shock and other electricity-related security issues. With respect to the county’s policy of promoting the pilot project of the distributed rooftop photovoltaic development, a large amount of distributed photovoltaic energy storage equipment is connected to the county-level power grid, aggravating the public electricity-related security issue associated with the distributed power supply systems.
The existing leakage current awareness technology does not consider the influence of water accumulated in extreme conditions (e.g., rainstorms) on the leakage current of the distributed power supply system, and also does not involve the multi-dimensional spatio-temporal correlation analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of rainstorms and operating state characteristic parameters of the power supply system, failing to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the electricity-related security risk. It has been rarely reported about the leakage current awareness technology under rainstorm conditions, and thus there is an urgent need to develop a method for electricity-related security awareness of distributed power supply systems considering spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorms, which is of great significance to ensure personal safety.
An object of this application is to provide a method for electricity-related security awareness of distributed power supply systems considering spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorms, which solves the problem that the existing leakage current awareness technology does not consider the influence of accumulated water generated in rainstorm conditions on the leakage current of the distributed power supply system.
Technical solutions of this application are described as follows.
This application provides a method for electricity-related security awareness of distributed power supply systems considering spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorms, including:
In an embodiment, the step (a) further includes:
In an embodiment, the step (a1) includes:
In an embodiment, the step (a2) includes:
In an embodiment, the step (c) includes:
In an embodiment, the step (d) further includes:
Compared to the prior art, this application has the following beneficial effects.
The electricity-related security awareness method provided herein for the distributed power supply systems comprehensively considers the rainstorm spatio-temporal distribution characteristics (such as rainfall peak position, cloud movement, rainfall intensity, and rainfall duration) and micro-terrain information of different users (such as the roof width, roof length, roof inclination angle, roof drainage rate, photovoltaic installation per unit area, photovoltaic installation inclination angle, and energy storage battery installation per unit area). By improving the probability density function of the rainfall intensity, the leakage current probability prediction model of the DPSPSS is derived. A leakage current risk awareness technology for the DPSPSS is also developed herein. In summary, this method not only considers the influence of accumulated water generated in extreme rainstorm on the leakage current of the distributed photovoltaic-energy power supply storage system, but also considers the spatio-temporal distribution differences of different regions and the micro-terrain conditions of different users to perform the leakage probability prediction for the DPSPSS, allowing for more accurate and reliable prediction effect.
The patent or application file contains
In order to illustrate the embodiments of the present disclosure or the technical solution more clearly in the prior art, the drawings required in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below. Obviously, presented in the drawings are merely some embodiments of the present disclosure, which are not intended to limit the disclosure. For those skilled in the art, other drawings may also be obtained according to the drawings provided herein without paying creative efforts.
In the figures: 1-fifth frame; 2-second frame; 3-third frame; 4- fourth frame; and 5-first frame.
It should be understood that the embodiments described herein are merely intended to explain the present disclosure, and are not intended to limit the present disclosure.
A method for electricity-related security awareness of distributed power supply systems considering spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorms is provided herein.
As shown in
(S110) A multi-dimensional parallel parasitic capacitance analysis model of a distributed photovoltaic-energy storage power supply system (DPSPSS) considering accumulated water depth and micro-terrain environment is derived to establish a leakage current calculation model of the DPSPSS under rainstorm conditions.
In this embodiment, the DPSPSS includes the photovoltaic power generation system and the photovoltaic-energy storage system.
(S120) Dataset is collected, preprocessed, and divided into a support set, a query set, a training set and a test set. The dataset includes an input parameter and an output parameter. The input parameter includes a characteristic parameter of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm and a micro-terrain characteristic parameter of a location where the DPSPSS is disposed. The output parameter includes model fitting parameters and micro-terrain fitting parameters. The characteristic parameter of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm includes rainfall peak position, cloud movement, rainfall intensity, and rainfall duration. The micro-terrain characteristic parameter includes a roof length, a roof width, a roof inclination angle, a roof drainage rate, photovoltaic installation per unit area, a photovoltaic installation inclination angle, and energy storage battery installation per unit area.
Specifically, the model fitting parameters here are Ar, Br, Cr, and Dr. The micro-terrain fitting parameters here are kt, kc, Lr, Wr, φr, and Vr, respectively. The preprocessing here is normalization processing. The support set and the query set are used for pre-training, and the training set and the test set are used for training and testing.
(S130) A spatio-temporal correlation analysis is performed between a characteristic parameter of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm of a to-be-tested area and characteristic parameters of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm of surrounding areas. A characteristic parameter of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm of a surrounding area with high correlation is selected and followed by adding to a sample of the to-be-tested area to train the leakage current calculation model. In an embodiment, the correlation between the characteristic parameter of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm of the to-be-tested area and the characteristic parameters of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm of surrounding areas is considered high when the correlation factor therebetween is equal to or higher than 0.8.
Specifically, after the type of the dataset is divided, the spatio-temporal correlation analysis of the input parameters is carried out. The number of the samples of each input characteristic parameter is adjusted according to the correlation, namely, the stronger the correlation, and the higher the proportion of the samples.
(S140) A leakage current probability prediction model of the DPSPSS considering nonuniformity and randomness of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm is established. The leakage current risk perception in the to-be-tested area through the leakage current calculation model and the leakage current probability prediction model is performed.
The electricity-related security awareness method provided herein for the distributed power supply systems comprehensively considers the rainstorm spatio-temporal distribution characteristics (such as rainfall peak position, cloud movement, rainfall intensity, and rainfall duration) and micro-terrain information of different users (such as the roof width, roof length, roof inclination angle, roof drainage rate, photovoltaic installation per unit area, photovoltaic installation inclination angle, and energy storage battery installation per unit area). By improving the probability density function of the rainfall intensity, the leakage current probability prediction model of the DPSPSS is derived. A leakage current risk perception technology for the DPSPSS is also developed herein. In summary, this method not only considers the influence of accumulated water generated in extreme rainstorm on the leakage current of the distributed photovoltaic-energy power supply storage system, but also considers the spatio-temporal distribution differences of different regions and the micro-terrain conditions of different users to perform the leakage current probability prediction for the DPSPSS, allowing for more accurate and reliable prediction effect.
This embodiment is based on Embodiment 1, and further, step (S140) includes the following steps.
(S210) An electricity-related security awareness model of the DPSPSS based on deep meta-learning is established.
(S220) With the dataset as a training sample, the training sample is divided into different subtask samples according to spatio-temporal distribution. The subtask samples are used to pre-train the electricity-related security awareness model.
(S230) The weight parameters and bias parameters of a training model according to spatio-temporal correlation of weight parameters and bias parameters obtained by pre-training are updated by soft update.
Specifically, the training model herein is the security awareness model that completes the pre-loop.
(S240) The training model is trained based on the weight parameters and the bias parameters obtained by pre-training, thereby obtaining the leakage current probability prediction model.
(S250) According to the leakage current calculation model, a critical water depth corresponding to individual leakage current levels of the DPSPSS in the to-be-tested area is obtained. The critical water depth is inputted into the leakage current probability prediction model to identify a spatio-temporal distribution of electricity-related security risks of the DPSPSS in the to-be-tested area.
In this embodiment, the disclosure also provides the electricity-related security awareness model based on meta-learning. The awareness model adopts the training method of meta-learning. The awareness model takes the rainstorm spatio-temporal distribution characteristics (such as the rainfall peak position, the cloud movement, the rainfall intensity, and the rainfall duration), and the micro-terrain information of different users (such as the roof width, roof length, roof inclination angle, roof drainage rate) as input. The awareness model takes the model fitting parameters and micro-terrain fitting parameters as output, to obtain the electricity-related security awareness model of the DPSPSS. The awareness model perceives the leakage current risk of the DPSPSS for users in different regions, realizing the hierarchical early warning of current leakage risk in different regions, which fills the technical gap of perceiving electricity-related security risk in the DPSPSS under rainstorm and severe weather.
This embodiment is based on Embodiment 1, further step (S110) includes the following steps.
(S310) The multi-dimensional parallel parasitic capacitance analysis model is derived.
(S320) Based on the multi-dimensional parallel parasitic capacitance analysis model, the leakage current calculation model is established.
(S330) Based on the leakage current calculation model, the leakage current probability prediction model is established.
Referring to
(S410) A first parasitic capacitance model considering a depth of accumulated water on a surface of a photovoltaic cell and a depth of accumulated water between the photovoltaic cell and a first frame 5 is obtained. The calculation formulas of the first parasitic capacitance model formulas are listed as follows:
In the formulas above,
is a capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and a frame assembly under the rainstorm conditions. Cf is a parasitic capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the frame assembly without considering the accumulated water on the surface of the photovoltaic cell. The frame assembly includes the first frame 5, a second frame 2, a third frame 3, a fourth frame 4, and a fifth frame 1. C1 is a parasitic capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the fifth frame 1. C2 is a parasitic capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the second frame 2. C3 is a parasitic capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the third frame 3. C4 is a parasitic capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the fourth frame 4. C5 is a parasitic capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the first frame 5. ε0 is absolute permittivity. εa represents relative permittivity of air. εb represents relative permittivity of glass. εw represents relative permittivity of water. εE represents relative permittivity of an ethyl vinyl acetate (EVA) layer. Te is a thickness of a Tedlar layer. Ts1 is a distance between the fifth frame 1 and the glass. Tb is a thickness of the glass. TE is a thickness of the EVA layer. Ht represents a thickness of the first frame 5, the second frame 2, the third frame 3, the fourth frame 4, or the fifth frame 5. Le is an effective length of a frame capacitor. Ls is a distance from the photovoltaic cell to the third frame 3. W1 is a length of the fifth frame 1. W3 is a length of the third frame. W5 is a length of the first frame 5 overlapping with the photovoltaic cell. Hp is a thickness of the photovoltaic cell. H4 is a length of the fourth frame 4. Sp is an area of the photovoltaic cell. Sw is an area of the accumulated water on the surface of the photovoltaic cell.
is a capacitance between the EVA layer and the accumulated water on the surface of the photovoltaic cell.
is a capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the glass when there is accumulated water on the surface of the photovoltaic cell. Lp is a length of the photovoltaic cell. Wp is a width of the photovoltaic cell. dw1 is the depth of water between the first frame 5 and the photovoltaic cell.
This embodiment is based on Embodiment 4, further step (S410) includes the following steps.
(S510) A second parasitic capacitance model considering a depth of accumulated water between the photovoltaic cell and a support frame is obtained. The calculation formulas of the second parasitic capacitance model are listed as follows:
In the formulas above, dw2 is the depth of the accumulated water between the photovoltaic cell and the support frame.
is a parasitic capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the support frame under the rainstorm conditions. C2E is a capacitance between a portion of the photovoltaic cell coinciding with the support frame and the Tedlar layer. C2e is a capacitance between the EVA layer of the portion of the photovoltaic cell coinciding with support frame and an air layer.
is a capacitance between the Tedlar layer and the air layer when there is accumulated water between the support frame and the photovoltaic cell. C2w is a capacitance between the air layer on the portion of the photovoltaic cell coinciding with the support frame and the support frame when there is accumulated water between the support frame and the photovoltaic cell. ε0 is the absolute permittivity. εE is the relative permittivity of the EVA layer. εe is a relative permittivity of the Tedlar layer. εa is the relative permittivity of air. εw is the relative permittivity of water. Wr is a width of the support frame. TE is the thickness of the EVA layer. Te is the thickness of the Tedlar layer. TA is a thickness of the air layer between the Tedlar layer and the support frame. Lp is the length of the photovoltaic cell. and Wp is the width of the photovoltaic cell.
This embodiment is based on the Embodiment 5, further step (S520) includes the following steps.
(S610) A third parasitic capacitance model considering a depth of accumulated water between the photovoltaic cell and ground is obtained. The calculation formulas of the third parasitic capacitance model are listed as follows:
In the formulas above, dw3 is the depth of the accumulated water between the photovoltaic cell and the ground.
is a capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the ground under the rainstorm conditions. CE is the capacitance between the photovoltaic cell and the Tedlar layer. Ce is the capacitance between the EVA layer and the air layer.
is a capacitance between the Tedlar layer and the ground when there is accumulated water between the photovoltaic cell and the ground. C3w is a capacitance between the air layer between the photovoltaic cell and the ground and the accumulated water on the ground. Crt is a capacitance between a top of the photovoltaic cell and the accumulated water. ε0 is the absolute permittivity. εa is the relative permittivity of the air. εw is the relative permittivity of water. TE is the thickness of the EVA layer. Te is the thickness of the Tedlar layer. z is a distance between the Tedlar layer and the ground. Wp is the width of the photovoltaic cell. Le is the effective length for a frame capacitor. Hp is the thickness of the photovoltaic cell.
This embodiment is based on Embodiment 6, further step (S430) includes the following steps.
(S710) A fourth parasitic capacitance model considering a depth of accumulated water between an energy storage battery and the ground is obtained. The calculation formulas of the fourth parasitic capacitance model are listed as follows:
In the formulas above,
is a parasitic capacitance between the energy storage battery and the ground under the rainstorm conditions.
is a parasitic capacitance between a top of the energy storage battery and the ground.
is a parasitic capacitance between a side of the energy storage battery and the ground.
is a parasitic capacitance between a bottom of the energy storage battery and the ground. dw4 is a depth of the accumulated water between the energy storage battery and the ground. Les is a length of the top of the energy storage battery. aes is a distance between the energy storage battery and the ground. bes is a height of the side of the energy storage battery. Wes is a width of the energy storage battery. ε0 is the absolute permittivity. εa is the relative permittivity of air. εw is the relative permittivity of water.
This embodiment is based on Embodiment 7, further step (S320) further includes the following steps.
(S810) The leakage current calculation model, generated between the photovoltaic cell or the energy storage battery and the ground is expressed as:
In the formula, CP1 is an equivalent parasitic capacitance between a positive end of the photovoltaic cell or the energy storage battery and the ground. CP2 is an equivalent parasitic capacitance between a negative end of the photovoltaic cell or the energy storage battery and the ground. ic1 and ic2 are both leakage currents. UP1 is a voltage of CP1. UP2 is a voltage of CP2.
(S820) Based on an expression of the high-frequency common-mode leakage current in combination with the first parasitic capacitance model, the second parasitic capacitance model, the third parasitic capacitance model, and the fourth parasitic capacitance model, the leakage current calculation model is established, to obtain an accumulated water depth dp when a leakage current of the DPSPSS exceeds iLe.
Referring to
(S910) A time series-based temporal correlation analysis on the input parameter is performed through the following formulas:
In the formulas above, Ra = [ra1, ra2, ..., raN] and Rb = [rb1,rb2, ...,rbN] represent values of the input parameters at different moments. C(Ra, Rb) is a correlation coefficient between Ra and Rb. cov(Ra, Rb) is a covariance of Ra and Rb. σ(Ra) is a variance of Ra. σ(Rb) is a variance of Rb.
(S1020) Geographic information-based spatial correlation analysis is performed on the input parameters through the following formulas:
In the formulas above, Rc = [rc1,rc2,...,rcN] and Rd = [rd1,rd2,..., rdN] are values of the input parameters at different moments. C(Rc, Rd) is a correlation coefficient of Rc and Rd. cov(Rc, Rd) is a covariance of Rc and Rd. σ(Rc) is a variance of Rc. σ(Rd) is a variance of Rd.
This embodiment is based on Embodiment 9, further step (S140) includes the following steps.
(S1010) The probability density function of the rainfall intensity is expressed as:
Ar, Br, Cr, and Dr are the model fitting parameters obtained by fitting historical data. tr is a predicted rainfall duration. yr is the rainfall intensity.
(S1020) According to rainfall spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and micro-terrain factors of different users, the probability density function is improved to obtain a relationship between leakage probability of the DPSPSS and the depth of accumulated water, expressed as:
In the formulas above,
is a rainfall intensity of rainfall peak.
is an equivalent rainfall intensity which is a rainfall intensity in a specific area obtained according to the rainfall intensity of the rainfall peak.
is the accumulated water depth. kt is a fitting coefficient of the rainfall peak position. kc is a fitting coefficient of the cloud movement. Lr is a fitting parameter to characterize the roof length. Wr is a fitting parameter to characterize the roof width. φr is a fitting parameter to characterize the roof inclination angle. Vr is a fitting parameter to characterize the roof drainage rate. kt, kc, Lr, Wr, φr, and Vr are the micro-terrain fitting parameters.
Specifically, the leakage current of the photovoltaic-energy storage power supply system is related to the accumulated water depth.
(S1030) A leakage current probability distribution function is obtained and expressed as follows:
(S1040) Based on the leakage current probability distribution function, the leakage current calculation model is derived. When the leakage current of the DPSPSS exceeds iLe, a probability calculation model is expressed as follows:
In this formula, dp represents to the accumulated water depth when the leakage current of the DPSPSS exceeds iLe.
Specifically, the awareness model includes a classifier module of a light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) and a deep dense neural network module, as shown in
Specifically, the input data of the deep dense neural network is the preprocessed micro-terrain characteristic parameters. The output layer uses the Softmax function as the activation function. The output layer has a total of q neurons. The q output results of the deep dense neural network are P1, P2,..., Pq. Softmax function is used as the activation function, the output results meet the following conditions:
The input of the LGB subclassifier is the meteorological characteristic parameter after preprocessing, that is, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristic parameters of rainfall.
(S1050) The classification results of the classifier module of the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) are integrated with output results of the deep dense neural network to output a prediction result of an operating state of the DPSPSS, expressed as:
In this formula, O is the prediction result of the operating state of the DPSPSS. Pj represents a j-th output result of the deep dense neural network. Ge represents an e-th output result of the classifier module of the LGBM. m is number of samples. Input data of the classifier module of the LGBM is preprocessed characteristic parameters of spatio-temporal distribution of rainstorm.
The weights and biases in the deep dense neural network are updated in a gradient descent manner. The update rules are as follows:
In the formulas above,
represents a weight from a g-th neuron of a (s-1)-th layer to a f-th neuron of a s-th layer in the deep dense neural network.
represents a bias of the f-th neuron of the s-th layer in the deep dense neural network. α represents learning rate. L(W, b) is a loss function which is expressed as follows:
In the formula above, N is the number of samples in a training set. x(k) represents an input of a k-th sample of the training set in the deep dense neural network. hw,b (x) is a forward propagation function. y(k) is a label of the k-th sample in the training set.
(S1060) The deep meta-learning is used to train the electricity-related security risk awareness model, as shown in
(S1070) The support set and query set in the dataset are divided into t subtask samples according to data in t different regions.
(S1080) The t subtask samples are trained separately to obtain a corresponding weight parameter Wt and a corresponding bias parameter bt.
(S1090) The weight parameters Wm and the bias parameters bm in the electricity-related security awareness model are updated by the soft update every time one of the t subtask samples is trained, wherein the soft update is expressed as follows:
In the formulas above, Wm(t) is a weight parameter of the training model obtained after a t-th subtask sample is trained. bm(t) is a bias parameter of the training model obtained after the t-th subtask sample is trained. Wm(t-1) is a weight parameter of the training model obtained after a (t-1)-th subtask sample is trained. bm(t-1) is a bias parameter of the training model obtained after the (t-1)-th subtask sample is completed. τ is a soft update coefficient and equals to 0.05. W1, W2,..., and Wt are weight parameters of the t subtask samples, respectively. b1, b2,..., and bt are bias parameters for each of the t subtask samples, respectively. cw1, cw2,..., and cwt are correlation coefficients obtained by the spatio-temporal correlation analysis.
(S1091) The pre-trained weight parameters Wm and the bias parameters bm are assigned to the training model.
(S1092) The training set is inputted into the training model for training. The model fitting parameters and the micro-terrain fitting parameters are outputted, so as to obtain the leakage current probability prediction model in different regions at different moments. The critical water depth obtained according to the leakage current calculation model is substituted into the leakage current probability prediction model, so as to identify the spatio-temporal distribution of electricity-related security risks of the DPSPSS.
This embodiment is based on Embodiment 10, further step (S1091) includes the following steps.
(S1110) The training model is used for panoramic awareness of electricity-related potential security risks in the DPSPSS. The training model is programmed in Python according to the process of the first embodiment of the present disclosure.
The actual test area is divided into N*N grids varying in the meteorological data and terrain factor. The rainfall meteorological data in each grid also vary over time. Thus, the grids under different spatial and temporal conditions correspond to different probability density functions of the rainfall intensity.
Then, according to the parasitic capacitance of the DPSPSSs, the critical rainfall intensity (120 mm for 12 h in this disclosure) under which the leakage currents of the DPSPSSs in different grids will exceed 300 mA to trigger the electricity-related safety risk is obtained. The critical rainfall intensity is plugged into the probability density function of individual grids, thereby obtaining the probability of the grids varying in spatial and temporal parameters that the leakage current of the DPSPSSs exceeds the critical value under rainstorm conditions to cause the electricity-related security risk.
Finally, according to the risk probability values of the grids, an electricity-related risk probability distribution map is made (as shown in
It can be concluded from the above results that the longer the rainfall duration and the greater the rainfall intensity, the larger the area with a dark color, that is, the larger the geographical area with a leakage current exceeding 300 mA.
Based on the generated risk probability distribution map, those areas with a relatively large electricity-related risk probability (greater than 0.7) are located, and further, the DPSPSSs within these areas are located. Early warning information including locations of these DPSPSSs is sent through communication network to the related department, such that corresponding measures can be taken in advance to avoid the occurrence of electricity-related security accidents.
Based on the above methods, the electricity-related security risk distribution map of the DPSPSSs in the rainstorm area can be generated according to the predicted meteorological data, so as to realize the risk early warning and avoid electric shock and other electricity-related security accidents.
The embodiments of the disclosure are described above in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but the disclosure is not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments. Described above are merely indicative and non-restrictive. Any modifications and replacements made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the disclosure should fall within the scope of the disclosure defined by the appended claims.
Number | Date | Country | Kind |
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202210478850.7 | May 2022 | CN | national |