Methods and systems to obtain a relative frequency distribution describing a distribution of counts

Abstract

A method and system to obtain relative frequency distributions to forecast counts used in worker scheduling are described herein. The method includes calculating a plurality of square roots of count data associated with a sequence of the plurality of intervals; extracting a number of amplitudes associated with a plurality of count distributions from the calculated plurality of square roots; calculating a number of counts associated with each amplitude over the plurality of intervals; and squaring the extracted number of amplitudes to obtain a corresponding plurality of estimates of relative frequency distributions describing the distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals.

Description

FIELD

The application relates generally to the field of data processing, and in one example embodiment to methods and systems to obtain a relative frequency distribution describing a distribution of counts over a plurality of intervals, and to a machine-readable medium comprising instructions to perform this method.

BACKGROUND

Automatic Call Distribution (ACD) centers often use forecasting models to forecast contacts, or calls, during certain periods of time. The forecasting models may be useful in determining adequate and efficient staff scheduling, for instance.

SUMMARY

According to an aspect of the invention there is provided a computer-implemented method and system to obtain relative frequency distributions to forecast counts used in worker scheduling are described herein. The computer-implemented method includes calculating a plurality of square roots of count data associated with a sequence of a plurality of intervals; extracting a number of amplitudes associated with a plurality of count distributions from the calculated plurality of square roots; calculating a number of counts associated with each amplitude over the plurality of intervals; and squaring the extracted number of amplitudes to obtain a corresponding plurality of estimates of relative frequency distributions describing the distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

This patent or application file contains at least one drawing executed in color. Copies of this patent or patent application publication with color drawings will be provided by the Office upon request and payment of the necessary fee.

An example embodiment of the present invention is illustrated by way of example and not limitation in the figures of the accompanying drawings, in which like references indicate similar elements and in which:

FIG. 1 illustrates a system, according to an example embodiment.

FIG. 2 illustrates a method of obtaining a relative frequency distribution, according to an embodiment.

FIG. 3 illustrates a graphical representation of counts in an example implementation.

FIG. 4 illustrates another graphical representation of counts in an example implementation.

FIG. 5 illustrates a graphical representation of count amplitude versus day of the week in an example implementation.

FIG. 6 illustrates a graphical representation of amplitudes versus day of the week in an example implementation.

FIG. 7 illustrates a graphical representation of day of week probability distributions obtained from amplitudes in an example implementation.

FIG. 8 illustrates a graphical representation of coefficients of amplitudes in an example implementation.

FIG. 9 illustrates a graphical representation of dominant day of week amplitudes in an example implementation.

FIG. 10 illustrates a graphical representation of approximate count amplitudes in an example implementation.

FIGS. 11 and 12 illustrate a graphical representation of approximate counts in an example implementation.

FIG. 13 illustrates a graphical representation of approximate counts from select amplitudes in an example implementation.

FIG. 14 shows a diagrammatic representation of machine in the example form of a computer system within which a set of instructions, for causing the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies discussed herein, may be executed.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

According to an aspect of the invention there is provided a method and system to obtain relative frequency distributions to forecast counts used in worker scheduling are described herein. The method includes calculating a plurality of square roots of count data associated with a sequence of a plurality of intervals; extracting a number of amplitudes associated with a plurality of count distributions from the calculated plurality of square roots; calculating a number of counts associated with each amplitude over the plurality of intervals; and squaring the extracted number of amplitudes to obtain a corresponding plurality of estimates of relative frequency distributions describing the distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals.

In an implementation, contacts may include calls or other electronic contacts. In the implementation, a method estimates a probability distribution describing the conditional probability that a call (or other electronic contact) may arrive on a given day (or 1^st time period) of a week (or 2^nd time period), given the call arrives some day in the particular week. The estimate may be based on a month (or 3^rd time period) or several weeks of data for call counts for each day of the month, and the single estimate is to reflect a pattern of distribution, which is common to each week of the month.

The probability distribution describing the conditional probability that a call (or other electronic contact) may arrive on a given day of a week, for instance, given the call arrives some day in the particular week may also be known as a forecasting model, which may be useful in determining adequate and efficient staff scheduling during that week, for instance.

Architecture

FIG. 1 illustrates a system 100, according to an example embodiment of the present invention. The system 100 includes a contact management system 102 and a database 104. The contact management system 102 may include a probability distribution module 110. The probability distribution module 110 may produce forecast data 112. The forecast data 112 may be saved in the database 104 and may be used in the worker scheduling module 114.

The probability distribution module 110 receives normalized contact count data 116 from the database 104 regarding count or contact data over a period of time, for example days, for a particular interval, for example, a week. For each valid data entry in the interval, the data may be a non-negative number. The probability distribution module 110 may receive data 116 associated with a plurality of intervals.

The worker scheduling module 114 may determine staff scheduling during a time interval associated with the forecast data.

FIG. 2 illustrates a computer-implemented method 200 of obtaining a probability distribution describing distribution of counts, according to an embodiment. In an embodiment, the computer-implemented method 200 describes how the probability distribution module 110 of FIG. 1 produces forecast data 112.

At block 210, contact count data 116 may be received as input of a plurality of normalized counts, for example, daily values, for a plurality of intervals, for example, weeks. The contact count data may be represented in a first matrix. The counts may be selected from a group including events, transactions, requests for service, contacts arriving at a system for handling contacts, and arriving customers. The plurality of intervals may be selected from a group including intervals of time, intervals of space, intervals of cyber-space, business abstractions that can be formulated as measurable subsets in a measured space, and subsets in a space of business abstractions, which abstractions are used to at least one of describe, define, and classify different types of counts. The plurality of intervals may be mathematically ordered pairs of any two from the group, or more generally, an ordered n-tuple of any number of types of intervals of the group.

The plurality of intervals may be associated with intervals of time and each time interval may be of substantially constant duration, wherein each time interval is organized into a same number of blocks. The numbers of the amplitude may be squared for each interval of a block to give the relative frequency with which counts assigned to that amplitude occur on that interval of a block. Each time interval may be selected from a period of a day, a day, a period of a week, a week, a period of a month, and a month. The sequence of the plurality of intervals may include a Cartesian product of two selected from a group including a set of time intervals, a set of locations, and a set of locations in cyber-space, a type of count, a set of types that defines a classification of different kinds of counts, a measurable set in a first measure space and a measurable set in a second measure space. Measurable sets and measure spaces are general and abstract mathematical settings for the situation where each cell in a rectangular table at some row and column position corresponds to an ordered pair of (measurable) sets. The first member of the pair is from the first measure space (corresponding to the row) and the second member of the pair is from a second measure space (corresponding to a column.) Measurable sets in a measure space are sets that may have magnitudes (counts, for example) associated with them, and where these magnitudes follow the natural laws of addition for sets.

At block 220, a square root of contact count data associated with a sequence of intervals may be calculated. The sequence may be finite. The square root may be taken of each of the data entries of the contact count data of block 210 and may be represented in a second matrix.

At block 230, amplitudes for count distributions may be extracted from the calculated square root. In an implementation, the transpose of the second matrix may be multiplied by the second matrix to represent a third matrix. In an implementation, a type of eigenvalue/eigenvector mathematical problem is solved for eigenvectors (e.g., amplitudes) and corresponding eigenvalues, which may be considered the number of counts associated with respective amplitudes.

At block 240, a number of counts (e.g., eigenvalues) associated with each amplitude over the sequence of generalized intervals may be calculated. Each of the calculated counts of the number of calculated counts includes a total number of counts, due to the respective amplitude, summed over the sequence.

At block 250, the extracted number of amplitudes (e.g., eigenvectors) may be squared to obtain a corresponding plurality of estimates of relative frequency distributions describing the distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals.

Further, the plurality of estimates of the relative frequency distributions may be normalized to obtain estimates of probability distributions describing distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals. Normalizing the relative frequency distributions may include dividing each of the numbers of the amplitude by a positive constant to obtain another set of numbers, wherein the numbers of the probability distribution sum to one. The amplitude may be selected to render normalization as substantially dispensable.

Example Computation of Probability Distribution

Let m_ij be the input data on the j^th day of the i^th week. In this example, there are 7 days in this week. Let M denote the matrix formed from elements m_ij. In this embodiment, m_ij>0 for each i and j . a_ij may be defined by the rule a_ij=√{square root over (m_ij)}, and A may denote the matrix formed from the elements a_ij. The matrix, A, is called the amplitude of the month. A^T is the transpose of A.

The computational heart of the extraction of the dominant day of week distribution is solving the mathematical eigenvalue-eigenvector problem: A^TAν_i=λ_iν_i. The numerical technique sometimes known as “the power method” may be sufficient and appropriate in this implementation to solve the mathematical eigenvalue-eigenvector problem.

The eigenvector(s) and corresponding eigenvalue(s) are solved for, and the components of the dominant day of week distribution, d_j, are then given by d_j=(ν_1j)² for j=1, 2, . . . , 7, for each eigenvector, as appropriate.

Example Extraction Distribution

The matrix A^T A may be a real, symmetric, 7 by 7 matrix. Each eigenvalue of matrix A^T A may be real and non-negative. Matrix A^T A may have a set of seven orthonormal eigenvectors. There are seven numbers, λ₁, λ₂, . . . , λ₇, (the eigenvalues) which can be ordered so that λ_i≧λ_j whenever i≦j. There is a set of seven vectors, {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ,ν₇} in R⁷, (containing the eigenvectors), which is both orthogonal, in that ν_i·ν_j=0 whenever i≠j, and normalized, in that v_i·ν_i=1. The corresponding eigenvalues and eigenvectors are related in that A^T Aν_i=λ_iν_i.

Each eigenvector in the set corresponds to a different (and independent) day of week distribution. The associated eigenvalue measures the volume of contacts (e.g., calls) that follow that distribution. In particular, $\sum _{\mathrm{ij}}{m}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\sum _k{\lambda }_k.$ The total monthly call volume may be substantially equal to the sum of the eigenvalues of A^T A .

In an implementation, the eigenvalue λ₁ may be called the dominant eigenvalue because it is the largest eigenvalue and the greatest number of calls follow the distribution of its eigenvector. The eigenvector ν₁ may then be called the dominant eigenvector. Let λ_1j denote the j^th component of the vector ν₁. The components of the dominant day of week distribution, d_j, are then given by d_j=(ν_1j)²for j=1,2, . . . , 7. By comparing the dominant eigenvalue to the total monthly call volume, one can determine how well a particular month of normalized data is represented by a single day of week pattern. Similar comparisons can be made with two and three amplitudes, etc., as described herein.

A technique to solve the eigenvalue-eigenvector problem: A^T Aν_i=λ_iν_i is based on the following: z₁,z₂, . . . ,z_n, . . . may be assumed to be a sequence of vectors in R⁷ defined by the recursion: $z_{n+1}=A^{T}A\left(\frac{z_n}{z_n}\right),$ where ∥z_n∥=√{square root over (z_n·z_n)} and where z₁ is a random vector in R⁷ such that ∥z∥=1. In other words, let z₁ be a random variable that is uniformly distributed over the unit sphere in R⁷. Then the probability is 1 that $\frac{z_n}{z_n}$ converges to a dominant eigenvector of A^T A.

Therefore, for large n, $\frac{z_n}{z_n}$ is almost certainly an approximation to a dominant eigenvector of A^T A and the corresponding eigenvalue is approximated by ∥z_n+1∥.

A dominant eigenvector of A^T A is a vector, ν, that (globally) maximizes Aν·Aν subject to the constraint that ν·ν=1. When the monthly call volume matrix, M, actually has the simple form of different weekly call volumes weighted by a single day of week distribution, then the dominant eigenvector recovers that day of week distribution, the dominant eigenvalue equals the monthly call volume, and each of the other eigenvalues are 0. When M is not of that simple form, the dominant eigenvector recovers a day of week distribution that accounts for the largest number of calls that can be attributed to a single day of week distribution and the dominant eigenvalue is that number of calls.

Example Extraction of Dominant Modes

The dominant modes of intraday distribution may be extracted, given valid intraday data for the days in a list of “comparable” dates and an intraday distribution. Some number of days of intraday data, organized by date and time-period, may be received, where the data is valid for every date and time-period. The data may be non-negative.

A maximum number may bind the number of modes (eigenvectors) that may be computed. A tolerance may be used to bind a sum of eigenvalues.

In another implementation, a list of eigenvalue, eigenvector pairs may be generated as follows, which may be a slight modification and generalization of that described in the Example Extraction Distribution above:

Let the input data comprise n days with p time-periods in each day. Let (i,j) refer to the j^th time-period of the i^th day. Let u_ij be the input data for the j^th time-period of the i^th day. For each day, i, let m_ij denote the distribution for that day. That is, let $m_{\mathrm{ij}}=\frac{u_{\mathrm{ij}}}{\sum _{j=1}^p{u}_{\mathrm{ij}}}$ so that $\sum _{j=1}^p{m}_{\mathrm{ij}}=1.$ Let the intraday distribution matrix, M, be the n by p matrix with elements m_ij. As in the Example Extraction Distribution, define a_ij by the rule a_ij=√{square root over (m_ij)} and let the intraday amplitude matrix, A, be the n by p matrix with elements a_ij. The analysis may now proceed as in the Example Extraction Distribution with the results: (1) A^T A has p non-negative eigenvalues that the can be ordered by decreasing magnitude, λ₁,λ₂, . . . ,λ_p, (2) there is a corresponding set of p orthonormal eigenvectors, {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ,ν_p} and (3) A^T Aν_i=λ_iν_i. Each eigenvector in the set corresponds to a different (and independent) intraday distribution or mode of distribution. The associated eigenvalue may measure the prevalence of that mode in the intraday distribution matrix, M. In particular, $\sum _{\mathrm{ij}}{m}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\sum _k{\lambda }_k=n.$ The modes with the largest eigenvalues may be called the dominant modes.

The parameters of the extraction dominant modes may limit the number of dominant modes that may be extracted from the intraday distribution matrix and that may be returned in the output. The described algorithm for extracting the dominant modes is an extension of the power method, which can extract eigenvalue, eigenvector pairs from A^T A, one pair at a time, in order of decreasing magnitude of eigenvalue. Let q be the number of pairs that have been extracted at some step of the algorithm. The extraction of pairs may cease under any of four conditions:

• • (1) q reaches the maximum specified in the parameters,
  • (2) $1-\frac{\sum _{i=1}^q{\lambda }_i}{n}$ is less than the tolerance specified in the parameters,
  • (3) λ_q=0, or
  • (4) a complete set of p eigenvectors is found.

Again, the output is the ordered list of the extracted eigenvalue, eigenvector pairs. In the extended power method, the first eigenvalue, eigenvector pair is obtained from a sequence of vectors z₁,z₂, . . . ,z_n, . . . defined by the recursion: $z_{n+1}=A^{T}A\left(\frac{z_n}{z_n}\right),$ as described in the Example Extraction Distribution.

q eigenvalue, eigenvalue pairs {(λ₁,ν₁),(λ₂,ν₂), . . . , (λ_q,ν_q)} are found, where ν_i·ν_i=1 for i=1, . . . , q. The q+1 eigenvalue, eigenvector pair may be obtained from another sequence of vectors z₁,z₂, . . . ,z_n, . . . , defined by the recursion: $z_{n+1}=A^{T}A\left(\frac{z_n-\left(\left(z_n·v_1\right)v_1+\left(z_n·v_2\right)v_2+\dots +\left(z_n·v_q\right)v_q\right)}{z_n-\left(\left(z_n·v_1\right)v_1+\left(z_n·v_2\right)v_2+\dots +\left(z_n·v_q\right)v_q\right)}\right).$

For large n, ν_q+1 is approximated by $\frac{z_n-\left(\left(z_n·v_1\right)v_1+\left(z_n·v_2\right)v_2+\dots +\left(z_n·v_q\right)v_q\right)}{z_n-\left(\left(z_n·v_1\right)v_1+\left(z_n·v_2\right)v_2+\dots +\left(z_n·v_q\right)v_q\right)};$ and λ_q+1 is approximated by ∥z_n+1∥. Example Theory

A “month” (e.g., a block of 7-day weeks) of daily call volume data may be expressed as a product of week and day-of-week factors. That is, let m_ij denote the volume of calls on the j^th day of the i^th week and m_ij=w_jd_j,   (1.1) where w_i and d_j are not negative and some d_j is not 0.

M is the matrix formed from the m_ij so that M=wd^T,   (1.2) where $\begin{array}{cc}w=\left(\begin{array}{c}{w}_1\\ w_2\\ w_3\\ ⋮\\ w_n\end{array}\right),& \left(1.3\right)\\ d=\left(\begin{array}{c}{d}_1\\ d_2\\ d_3\\ ⋮\\ d_7\end{array}\right),& \left(1.4\right)\end{array}$ and n is the number of weeks in the month.

Without loss of generality, it may be assumed that: $\begin{array}{cc}\sum _j{d}_j=1& \left(1.5\right)\end{array}$

For suppose that $\sum _j{d}_j=D\ne 0,$ then $\begin{array}{cc}M=w{d}^T=\left(\frac{D}{D}\right)w{d}^T=D{w\left(\frac{1}{D}d\right)}^T=\hat{w}{\hat{d}}^T& \left(1.6\right)\end{array}$ where ŵ=Dw, {circumflex over (d)}=1/D d , and $\sum _j{\hat{d}}_j=1.$

Define the n×7 matrix, A={a_ij}, by the rule a_ij=√{square root over (m_ij)}  (1.7) and let {tilde over (w)}_i=√{square root over (w_i)} and √{square root over (d)}_j=√{square root over (d_j)} so that A={tilde over (w)}{tilde over (d)}^T   (1.8)

Again, the matrix, A, may be called the “amplitude” of the monthly call volume. Interpret A as a matrix that maps R⁷ into Rⁿ, so that for any x in R⁷, Ax is in Rⁿ.

Let (x,y) denote the usual inner product that equips either R⁷ or Rⁿ with its usual Euclidean norm, denoted ∥*∥.

In particular, note that $\left(\tilde{d},\tilde{d}\right)={\tilde{d}}^2=\sum _j{\tilde{d}}_j^2=\sum _j{d}_j=1$ so ∥{tilde over (d)}∥=1   (1.9) The following is a significant property of {tilde over (d)} stated as a theorem, theorem I.

Theorem I: Suppose A={tilde over (w)}{tilde over (d)}^T where ∥{tilde over (d)}∥=1. For each x in R⁷ such that ∥x∥=1, ∥Ax∥ is a maximum when x={tilde over (d)}.

Proof I: ∥Ax∥=∥{tilde over (w)}{tilde over (d)}^Tx∥=∥{tilde over (w)}({tilde over (d)},x)∥=|({tilde over (d)},x)|∥{tilde over (w)}∥=∥{tilde over (d)}∥∥x∥∥{tilde over (w)}∥|cos(θ)|=∥{tilde over (w)}∥|cos(θ)|  (1.10) where θ is the angle between x and {tilde over (d)}. But |cos(θ)| is a maximum when θ is an integral multiple of π, in which case x=±{tilde over (d)}. Therefore, ∥Ax∥ is a maximum when x={tilde over (d)}.

When M=wd^T and $\sum _j{d}_j=1,$ there are simple ways to determine the values of the d_j. However, when a matrix is not of the form wd^T for any choices of w and d, both the meaning and values of the day-of-week factors are ambiguous. In particular, if call volumes are approximated using a pattern the calls do not actually follow, then some theory of the error in the approximations may be useful in selecting “better” (e.g. sufficient) approximations. Some absolute measure that indicates when the approximations are good (e.g. sufficient) and when they are bad (e.g. insufficient) may be useful. For example, sometimes the “best” approximation is not good enough and sometimes the “worst” approximation is sufficient. Disambiguating the concept of day-of-week factors for the case of months that do not follow the simple pattern where M=wd^T may be attempted.

Observe that Theorem I characterizes the day of week factors as a solution to a mathematical optimization problem. This mathematical optimization problem may include solutions even when the matrix is not of the form M=wd^T. Solutions to a closely related, but slightly generalized, mathematical optimization problem may be used herein to define week and day-of-week factors for general months that do not necessarily follow the simple pattern. Vectors, x, may be sought such that ∥Ax∥² is stationary, subject to the constraint that ∥x∥²=1. Note, at any vector where (subject to the constraint) ∥Ax∥² has a local maximum, has a local minimum, has a saddle point, and/or is locally constant, ∥Ax∥² may be stationary. More formally, a real-valued function, F, is said to be stationary at x subject to the constraint that ∥x∥=1 whenever $\begin{array}{cc}\underset{\underset{y=1}{y\to x}}{\lim }\frac{F\left(x\right)-F\left(y\right)}{x-y}=0.& \left(1.11\right)\end{array}$

It turns out, when there are less than 8 weeks in a plurality of intervals or a “month”, these optimal vectors may be used to exactly express both A and M in terms of products of week and day-of-week factors. As well, they may provide simple approximations of A and M with known error.

Analysis and interpretation of these optimal vectors, x, are discussed below:

Let M be an n×7 real matrix with elements m_ij≧0 for i=1, 2, . . . , n and j=1, 2, . . . , 7. n≦7 may be assumed. Let A be the amplitude of M, so that A is an n×7 real matrix with elements a_ij>0, where a_ij=√{square root over (m_ij)} for i=1,2, . . . , n and j=1,2, . . . , 7.

Vectors, x in R⁷ that make ∥Ax∥² stationary may be sought, subject to the constraint that ∥x∥=1 Using the technique of Lagrange multipliers, this mathematical problem involving a constraint may be solved upon introduction of a new, auxiliary variable, λ, used to define a related mathematical problem that does not involve any constraints. An auxiliary function H may be defined by: H=∥Ax∥²−λ(∥x∥²−1).   (1.12)

In an embodiment, from calculus, the values of x and λ for which H is stationary, give exactly the values of x for which ∥Ax∥² is stationary, subject to the constraint that ∥x∥=1. Let x be expressed in components as $\begin{array}{cc}x=\left(\begin{array}{c}{x}_1\\ x_2\\ x_3\\ ⋮\\ x_7\end{array}\right).& \left(1.13\right)\end{array}$

A condition that H is stationary is given by the following system of 8 equations: $\begin{array}{cc}\begin{array}{c}\frac{\partial H}{\partial x_1}=0\\ \frac{\partial H}{\partial x_2}\\ ⋮\\ \frac{\partial H}{\partial x_7}=0\\ \frac{\partial H}{\partial \lambda }=0.\end{array}& \left(1.14\right)\end{array}$

Expressing H in components includes: $\begin{array}{cc}\begin{array}{c}H={\mathrm{Ax}}^2-\lambda \left({x}^2-1\right)\\ =\left(\mathrm{Ax},\mathrm{Ax}\right)-\lambda \left(\left(x,x\right)-1\right)\\ =\sum _k{\left(\sum _i{a}_{\mathrm{ki}}{x}_i\right)}^2-\lambda \left(\sum _s{x}_s^2-1\right);\end{array}& \left(1.15\right)\\ \mathrm{so}& \\ \frac{\partial H}{\partial x_r}=2\sum _k\left(\sum _i{a}_{\mathrm{ki}}{x}_i\right)\left(\sum _i{a}_{\mathrm{ki}}\frac{\partial x_i}{\partial x_r}\right)-2\lambda \left(\sum _s{x}_s\frac{\partial x_s}{\partial x_r}\right);& \left(1.16\right)\\ \frac{\partial H}{\partial x_r}=2\sum _k\left(\sum _i{a}_{\mathrm{ki}}{x}_i\right)a_{\mathrm{kr}}-2\lambda x_r.& \left(1.17\right)\end{array}$

Enforcing the first 7 conditions in (1.14), the following is determined: $\begin{array}{cc}\sum _i\left(\sum _k{a}_{\mathrm{kr}}{a}_{\mathrm{ki}}\right)x_i-\lambda x_r=0;r=1,2,\dots ,7& \left(1.18\right)\end{array}$

or simply: A^T Ax=λx   (1.19)

Enforcing the last condition in (1.14) by differentiating (1.15) with respect to λ and setting the result to 0 gives: ∥x∥²=1   (1.20)

Equations (1.19) and (1.20) define a kind of eigenvector-eigenvalue mathematical problem. An eigenvector of (1.19) is any x such that x≠0 and A^T Ax=λx for some number, λ.

An eigenvalue of (1.19) is any number, λ, such that A^T Ax=λx for some x≠0. Note that when ν is an eigenvector of (1.19), so is ν/∥ν∥, and ν/∥ν∥ also satisfies equation (1.20). The “stationary” vectors for the mathematical optimization problem may be found if the eigenvectors of (1.19) may be found.

A matrix, B, is symmetric if B=B^T. A set of vectors, {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ,ν_k} in R^m is orthogonal if (ν_i,ν_j)=0, whenever is j and (ν_i,ν_j)≠0 whenever i=j. A set of vectors, {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ,ν_k} in R^m is orthonormal if it is orthogonal and (ν_i, ν_i)=1 for i=1, 2, . . . , k.

The matrix, A^T A, is a 7×7 real matrix and is “symmetric” in that (A^TA)^T=((A)^T(A^T)^T)=A^TA. In other words, the matrix equals its own transpose.

From the theory of linear algebra, it is asserted that:

• • (1) Each of the eigenvalues of a real, symmetric matrix are real.
  • (2) If λ₁ and λ₂ are distinct eigenvectors of a real, symmetric matrix, and if ν₁ is an eigenvector for λ₁ and ν₂ is an eigenvector for λ₂, then (ν₁,ν₂)=0.
  • (3) For any m×m real, symmetric matrix there is at least one set of m, orthonormal eigenvectors.
  • (4) The eigenvalues of a real, symmetric matrix, are the roots of a real polynomial of degree m. As such, any particular eigenvalue may be a root more than once. Therefore, by the Fundamental Theorem of Algebra, the number of eigenvalues, counting repetitions, is m. The number of distinct eigenvalues is between 1 and m.

Theorem II: The eigenvalues of the matrix A^T A are not negative.

Proof II: Let ν be an eigenvector of A^T A corresponding to the eigenvalue, λ. Let y be defined by the rule: y=Aν. Then: 0≦(y,y)=(Aν,Aν)=(ν, A^T Aν)=(ν,λν)=λ(ν,ν)   (2.1) but (ν,ν)>0 so λ≧0.

Let {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ν₇} be a set of orthonormal eigenvectors for A^T A. The indices may be assumed to have been arranged in order by the decreasing magnitude of the eigenvalues. That is, when A^T Aν_i=λ_iν_i, then λ_i≧λ_j whenever i<j.

Each of the first p eigenvalues in this ordering may be assumed as positive, but any other eigenvalues may be 0.

Define {tilde over (y)}_i by the rule {tilde over (y)}_i=Aν_i for i=1, 2, . . . , p . Let $y_i=\frac{{\tilde{y}}_i}{{\tilde{y}}_i}$ for i=1,2, . . . ,p.

Theorem III: ∥{tilde over (y)}∥=√{square root over (λ_i)}, for i=1,2, . . . , p.

Proof III: ∥y_i∥²=({tilde over (y)}_i,{tilde over (y)}_i)=(Aν_i,Aν_i)=λ_i(ν_i,ν_i)=λ_i.

Theorem IV: {y₁,y₂, . . . y_p} is orthonormal.

Proof IV: $\left(y_i,y_i\right)=\left(\frac{{\tilde{y}}_i}{{\tilde{y}}_i},\frac{{\tilde{y}}_i}{{\tilde{y}}_i}\right)=\frac{1}{{{\tilde{y}}_i}^2}\left({\tilde{y}}_i,{\tilde{y}}_i\right)=\frac{{{\tilde{y}}_i}^2}{{{\tilde{y}}_i}^2}=1,$ so the y_i is normalized.

On the other hand, $\begin{array}{cc}\begin{array}{c}\left(y_i,y_j\right)=\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}}A{v}_i,\frac{1}{\sqrt{{\lambda }_j}}A{v}_j\right)\\ =\frac{1}{\sqrt{{\lambda }_i{\lambda }_j}}\left(v_i,A^{T}A{v}_j\right)\\ =\frac{\sqrt{{\lambda }_j}}{\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}}\left(v_i,v_j\right)\end{array}& \left(2.2\right)\end{array}$

But since {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ν₇} is orthonormal so is {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ν_p}. Therefore, (ν_i,ν_j)=0 and the equality (2.2) forces (y_i,y_j)=0 whenever i≠j. But then the elements of {y₁,y₂, . . . y_p} are both normal and orthogonal. Therefore, {y₁,y₂, . . . y_p} is orthonormal.

Theorem V: The amplitude, A, of a month, M, decomposes into a sum of matrices each of which is the product of week and day-of-week factors and where both the set of week factors and the set of day-of-week factors are orthonormal. That is, $\begin{array}{cc}A=\sum _{i=1}^p\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}{y}_i{v}_i^T& \left(2.3\right)\end{array}$

where {y₁,y₂, . . . y_p} and {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ν_p} are both orthonormal.

Proof V: Let $\stackrel{\_}{A}=\sum _{i=1}^p\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}{y}_i{v}_i^T$ and let x be any vector in R⁷ . Let c_i=(x,ν_i) for i=1,2, . . . ,7. But then $x=\sum _{i=1}^7{c}_i{v}_i$ because {ν₁,ν₂, . . . ν₇} spans R⁷ and $\left(x-\sum _{i=1}^7{c}_i{v}_i,v_j\right)=0,$ for each j=1,2, . . . ,7. Therefore, $\begin{array}{cc}\begin{array}{c}\stackrel{\_}{A}x=\stackrel{\_}{A}\sum _{i=1}^7{c}_i{v}_i\\ =\sum _{i=1}^p\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}{y}_i{v}_i^T\sum _{r=1}^7{c}_r{v}_r\\ =\sum _{i=1}^p\sum _{r=1}^7\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}{c}_r{y}_i{v}_i^T{v}_r\\ =\sum _{i=1}^p\sum _{r=1}^7\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}{c}_r{y}_i\left(v_i,v_r\right)\\ =\sum _{i=1}^p\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}{c}_i{y}_i\\ =\sum _{i=1}^p{c}_i\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}{y}_i\\ =\sum _{i=1}^p{c}_i{\tilde{y}}_i\\ =\sum _{i=1}^p{c}_{i}A{v}_i\\ =\sum _{i=1}^7{c}_{i}A{v}_i\\ =A\sum _{i=1}^7{c}_i{v}_i\\ =Ax\end{array}& \left(2.4\right)\end{array}$

In an embodiment, because x is arbitrary, Ax=Ax for each x in R⁷. Therefore, A=A. Therefore $A=\sum _{i=1}^p\sqrt{{\lambda }_i}{y}_i{v}_i^T.$

Define A_k by the rule A_k=y_kν_k^T and α_k by the rule α_k=√{square root over (λ_k)} for k=1, 2, . . . , p. Then A may be expressed as: $\begin{array}{cc}A=\sum _{k=1}^p{\alpha }_k{A}_k& \left(2.5\right)\end{array}$

This shows that A is a weighted sum of “simple” amplitudes, the A_k, each of the forms given in (1.8). Each such amplitude is an n×7 matrix. Let a_k;ij denote the coefficient in the i^th row and j^th column of A_k. For each k let y_k;i denote the i^th component of y_k and let ν_k;j denote the j^th component of ν_k. Therefore, a_k;ij=y_k;iν_k;j. The coefficients of any amplitude may also be considered to be a vector in R⁷ⁿ, with its usual norm and inner product. In this case, ∥A_k∥² may be defined as $\sum _{i=1}^n\sum _{j=1}^7{a}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}^2$ and (A_k,A_q) may be defined as $\sum _{i=1}^n\sum _{j=1}^7{a}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}{a}_{q;\mathrm{ij}}.$ For each k, define a corresponding call-volume matrix, M_k, by the rule m_k;ij=λ_ka_k;ij².

The amplitudes, A_k, may enjoy a number of significant properties. For example see Theorem VI.

Theorem VI: A_k^TA_r=0 and A_kA_r^T=0 when k≠r. A_k^TA_k=ν_kν_k^T= and A_kA_k^T=y_ky_k^T. (A_k,A_k)=∥A_k∥²=1. (A_k,A_q)=0 when k≠q.

There are also significant properties of M expressed in terms of the eigenvalues as shown in Theorem VII.

Theorem VII: $\sum _{i=1}^n\sum _{j=1}^7{m}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\sum _{k=1}^p{\lambda }_k$$\sum _{i=1}^n\sum _{j=1}^7{m}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}={\lambda }_k$

In other words, the total monthly call volume equals the sum of the call volumes due to each of the k patterns.

A call may be assumed to have a state indexed by k. Each amplitude matrix, A_k, may be an amplitude describing the week˜day-of-week distribution of a call that is in the k^th state. When a call is in the k^th state, the probability, P_k;ij, that the call may arrive on the j^th day of the i^th week may be defined to be a_k;ij²=y_k;i²ν_k;j². That is, p_k;ij may be defined by the rule p_k;ij=a_k;ij². Note that the probability that a call in the k^th state arrives on some day is $\sum _i\sum _j{p}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}=1,$ that it arrives on the j^th day of some week is $\sum _i{p}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}=v_{k;j}^2,$ and that it arrives on some day during the i^th week is $\sum _j{p}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}=y_{k;i}^2.$ Therefore, when in the k^th state, the weekday-of-week joint probability distribution is the product of two independent probability distributions, one for the week and one for the day-of-week.

In an implementation, a call may be in a blend (or superposition) of states. The blend may be described by defining amplitudes, β_k, for the call to be, in each of the k states. In an implementation, $\sum _k{\beta }_k^2=1,$ so that β_k² is the probability that the call may be in the k^th state. The amplitude for the week-day-of-week distribution of the blended call is $\sum _k{\beta }_k{A}_k.$ The probability that the blended call may arrive on the j^th day of the i^th week is ${\left(\sum _k{\beta }_k{a}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}\right)}^2.$ In this formulation, the probability for a given day of the month is the result of interference of the weighted amplitudes of each of the states on that day. It may be shown that $\sum _i{\left(\sum _k{\beta }_k{a}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}\right)}^2=\sum _k{\beta }_k^2{v}_{k;j}^2$ and similarly, $\sum _j{\left(\sum _k{\beta }_k{a}_{k;\mathrm{ij}}\right)}^2=\sum _k{\beta }_k^2{y}_{k;i}^2.$

The former asserts that the probability a blended call arrives on the j^th day of some week is just the sum, over all states, of the probability the call is in the k^th state times the probability the call arrives on the j^th day of some week given the call is in the k^th state. The latter asserts that the probability a blended call arrives on some day during the i^th week is just the sum, over all states, of the probability the call is in the k^th state times the probability the call arrives on some day during the i^th week given the call is in the k^th state. In other words, ν_k;j² is the conditional probability that a call arrives on the j^th day of the week, given the call is in state k, and y_k;i² is the conditional probability that a call arrives on i^th week, given the call is in state k.

The probability amplitude, γ_k, may be defined by the rule: $\begin{array}{cc}{\gamma }_k=\frac{{\alpha }_k}{\sum _k{\alpha }_k^2}& \left(2.6\right)\end{array}$ so that $\sum _k{\gamma }_k^2=1.$

N may be defined to be the total number of calls in the month. That is, $\begin{array}{cc}N=\sum _i\sum _j{m}_{\mathrm{ij}}& \left(2.7\right)\end{array}$

In this case, M may be interpreted as giving the expected number of calls on each day of the month when N calls arrive that month and each call has a probability amplitude given by: $\begin{array}{cc}\sum _k{\gamma }_k{A}_k& \left(2.8\right)\end{array}$

Furthermore, $\begin{array}{cc}A=\sqrt{N}\sum _{k=1}^p{\gamma }_k{A}_k& \left(2.9\right)\end{array}$

Finally, this analysis suggests two alternate ways to think about the day-of-week distribution for a month:

• • (1) Each call of the month may be substantially identically distributed and each call has an amplitude, γ_k, to be in the k^th state.
  • (2) There are p different kinds of calls during the month. For each kind, indexed by k=1, 2, . . . ,p, there is a probability distribution for the day of week of its arrival given by ν_k;j². The different kinds of calls may be statistically independent. The probability that a call is of the k^th kind is γ_k².

The second alternative above may suggest the following: any given call is most likely of the kind where k=1. This is because the eigenvalues discussed above are ordered in such a way that γ₁≧γ_k. for each k, γ_k² is greatest when k=1. Therefore, k=1 is a most probable kind of call; when the largest eigenvalue is unique, k=1 is the most probable kind of call. Therefore, for any given call, a most likely day-of-week probability distribution is given by ν_1;j².

Averaging over each calls, the expected value of the day-of-week probability distribution may be $\sum _k{\gamma }_k^2{v}_{k;j}^2.$ Example Implementation

In an example embodiment, there are seven weeks of a calendar is considered a kind of “long” month and there is a “count” of events or contacts associated with each day of the seven week period, as shown in Matrix 1, where M denotes the matrix 1 formed from elements m_ij. It is assumed that m_ij≧0 for each i and j. Elements m_ij correspond to the number of contacts (e.g., call counts) during the particular period i of j. Seven weeks is chosen in this example, however, any number of weeks may be used. Further, i is chosen in this example to correspond to a day, however, any time period may be used. In addition, j is chosen in this example to correspond to a week, however, any time period may be used.

MATRIX 1, M:
	18	47	48	11	43	59	26
	19	43	31	22	33	64	39
	24	44	35	19	32	43	25
	31	22	31	44	35	37	37
	41	36	33	36	35	27	45
	47	25	34	57	28	15	36
	46	15	29	57	19	11	51

Each column corresponds to a day of the week and each row corresponds to a week of the long month. The counts in Matrix 1 were generated by a stochastic process. This matrix (table) of counts might also be visualized graphically as either a sequence of weeks as shown in FIG. 3, or as a surface over a day-of-week vs. week plane, as shown in FIG. 4.

The amplitude A of the counts of the month is obtained by taking the square root of the counts m_ij on each day, as shown in Matrix 2, A. A denotes the matrix formed from the elements a_ij. a_ij is defined by the rule a_ij=√{square root over (m_ij)}.

MATRIX 2, A:
4.242641	6.855655	6.928203	3.316625	6.557439	7.681146	5.09902
4.358899	6.557439	5.567764	4.690416	5.744563	8	6.244998
4.898979	6.63325	5.91608	4.358899	5.656854	6.557439	5
5.567764	4.690416	5.567764	6.63325	5.91608	6.082763	6.082763
6.403124	6	5.744563	6	5.91608	5.196152	6.708204
6.855655	5	5.830952	7.549834	5.291503	3.872983	6
6.78233	3.872983	5.385165	7.549834	4.358899	3.316625	7.141428

The graph associated with the amplitude of the counts of the month is illustrated at FIG. 5.

This amplitude matrix (Matrix 2, A) is multiplied (using matrix multiplication) on the left by its own transpose to obtain a symmetric day-of-week by day-of week matrix, which can be thought of as the “inner-square” of the count amplitude matrix as shown in Matrix 3. Let A^T be the transpose of A.

MATRIX 3, AT A:
226	215.2454	226.9281	234.1861	217.2346	215.7696	239.7398
215.2454	232	233.8444	216.5107	226.7333	240.5337	235.5131
226.9281	233.8444	241	230.9605	232.1346	240.7137	245.5247
234.1861	216.5107	230.9605	246	220.9489	217.3878	247.811
217.2346	226.7333	232.1346	220.9489	225	235.0973	236.1457
215.7696	240.5337	240.7137	217.3878	235.0973	256	240.6937
239.7398	235.5131	245.5247	247.811	236.1457	240.6937	259

The eigenvalues λ and a set of orthonormal eigenvectors ν for the inner-square of the amplitude can be found by any method known to those of skill in the art, solving the mathematical eigenvalue-eigenvector problem: A^T Aν_i=λ_iν_i.

Matrix 4 illustrates the eigenvalues λ₁ of the inner-square of the count amplitude in this example.

MATRIX 4, λ_i:

1627.355 51.22686 3.521141 1.6047 0.874811 0.395056 0.022026

In this example, each of the eigenvalues λ₁ are non-negative and the sum of the eigenvalues λ₁ is 1685. The sum of the eigenvalues λ₁ equals the total number of counts m_ij in the long month, in this example.

Matrix 5 illustrates the eigenvectors ν_ij.

MATRIX 5, vij:
0.365907	0.371828	0.383599	0.374898	0.370173	0.382516	0.395996
−0.38769	0.338691	0.091681	−0.56956	0.167401	0.571536	−0.21795
0.321533	0.392462	0.412598	−0.2747	0.149128	−0.55417	−0.40933
−0.11079	−0.4557	0.253181	0.37785	0.399282	0.178181	−0.61808
−0.11043	−0.53142	0.588301	−0.39398	0.07867	−0.1052	0.432223
−0.16498	0.135608	0.507372	0.262446	−0.76273	0.153889	−0.1505
−0.74882	0.290771	0.081137	0.3045	0.255614	−0.39169	0.19144

In Matrix 5 of eigenvectors, each row gives the components of an eigenvector. The first row is an eigenvector for the first eigenvalue, the second row is an eigenvector for the second eigenvalue, and so on. These particular eigenvectors form an orthonormal set.

Each eigenvector ν describes a pattern of distribution of counts across the days of the week. The corresponding eigenvalue gives the count of events or contacts that follow that pattern. FIG. 6 illustrates a graph of the eigenvectors ν_ij.

The sum of the squares of the components of each eigenvector equals one (1). Therefore, the squares of the components of each eigenvector may be interpreted as a probability distribution. In this situation, each eigenvector may be thought of as the “amplitude” of a day-of-week probability distribution. Matrix 6 illustrates the probability distributions obtained from their amplitudes by squaring components as follows: ν_ij².

MATRIX 6:
0.133888	0.138256	0.147148	0.140548	0.137028	0.146318	0.156813
0.150305	0.114712	0.008405	0.324401	0.028023	0.326654	0.047501
0.103383	0.154027	0.170237	0.075459	0.022239	0.307106	0.167549
0.012274	0.207659	0.064101	0.14277	0.159426	0.031748	0.382021
0.012196	0.282409	0.346098	0.155223	0.006189	0.011068	0.186817
0.027218	0.01839	0.257427	0.068878	0.581756	0.023682	0.02265
0.560736	0.084548	0.006583	0.09272	0.065339	0.153424	0.036649

FIG. 7 illustrates the graph associated with Matrix 6. FIG. 7 illustrates an estimate of a probability distribution of arrival of a contact call for each day of the week, wherein the contact call is to arrive during the week.

The components of the dominant day of week distribution, d_j, are given by d_j=(ν_ij)² for j=1,2, . . . , 7.

The count amplitude of any week in the long month may be expressed as a linear combination of the day-of-week amplitudes. Matrix 7 illustrates coefficients that can be used to express each week of the count amplitude of the long month as a linear combination of the day-of-week amplitudes. In one of many possible implementations, Matrix 7 may be calculated by the dot product of Matrix 2 and Matrix 5: a_ij·ν_ij. In Matrix 7, the columns correspond to the different weeks of the month and the rows correspond to the different day-of-week amplitudes.

MATRIX 7, aij · vij:
15.38732	15.58701	14.74486	15.32937	15.86092	15.25106	14.52813
3.799734	2.54287	2.012101	−0.6964	−0.84288	−2.93826	−4.05528
0.636287	−1.14907	0.58508	−0.87234	0.392439	0.685395	−0.2624
0.248452	−0.42994	−0.08395	0.848169	−0.58021	0.385405	−0.38276
0.569094	−0.22904	−0.3867	0.009266	−0.06182	−0.35619	0.467084
0.028447	0.135728	0.1789	−0.20845	−0.47574	0.14392	0.230928
0.032158	0.053037	−0.09775	−0.03972	0.004068	0.076414	−0.0345

That is to say, for example, the count amplitude of the first week of the long month equals 15.38732 times the first eigenvector plus 3.799734 times the second eigenvector . . . plus 0.032158 times the seventh eigenvector.

FIG. 8 illustrates a graph of the coefficients associated with Matrix 7. This graph shows that the first amplitude (eigenvector) contributes with a weight of about 15 to each week of the count amplitude, that the second amplitude contributes with a weight that is roughly linearly decreasing from about 4 to -4 across the weeks of the month, and that the other amplitudes do not make much of a contribution to the count amplitude of any week. These observations are in line with the values of the corresponding eigenvalues. The first two eigenvalues (from Matrix 4) account for the distribution of 1627.355+51.22686=1678.582 out of a total of 1685 counts during the month. In that sense, the distribution of counts, in this particular example of a long month is dominated by just two day-of-week patterns: those that are given by the first two day-of-week amplitudes. Therefore, the distribution of counts on any week of the month may be approximated using just those two day-of-week amplitudes.

Matrix 8 includes a table of the two dominant day-of-week amplitude's coefficients in the count amplitude of the month. Matrix 8 is the same as the first two rows of Matrix 7. FIG. 9 illustrates a graph of the two dominant day-of-week amplitudes of Matrix 8.

MATRIX 8
15.38732	15.58701	14.74486	15.32937	15.86092	15.25106	14.52813
3.799734	2.54287	2.012101	−0.6964	−0.84288	−2.93826	−4.05528

The count distribution may be approximated from the dominant day-of-week amplitudes. First, the count amplitude of the first week may be approximated as 15.38732*Amp1+3.799743*Amp2, and the count amplitude of the second week may be approximated as 15.58701*Amp1+2.54287*Amp2, and so on, to approximate the count amplitude of the seventh week as 14.52813*Amp1+−4.05528*Amp2.

Matrix 9 and FIG. 10 illustrate the approximate count amplitude of the long month. To recover an approximation of the raw count data, the results of Matrix 9 is calculated. Matrix 9, P_ij, may be calculated by multiplying the coefficients matrix (Matrix 7) by the Amplitude Matrix (Matrix 2) and summing: P_ij=Σ[(a_ij·ν_ij)×(a_ij)].

MATRIX 9, Pij
4.1572	7.008375	6.250927	3.604489	6.332055	8.057578	5.265181907
4.717542	6.656937	6.212297	4.395213	6.195574	7.415619	5.61818689
4.61517	6.164035	5.840588	4.3818	5.794982	6.79013	5.400379096
5.879108	5.464025	5.816485	6.143591	5.557944	5.465704	6.222151165
6.130393	5.61206	6.006957	6.426296	5.730189	5.585314	6.464566996
6.719605	4.675611	5.58091	7.391112	5.153667	4.154448	6.679748137
6.88814	4.02848	5.201185	7.756301	4.699067	3.239497	6.636922234

The component of the count amplitude on any day of the month may be squared to obtain the approximate number of counts for that day. Matrix 10 and FIGS. 11 and 12 illustrate the approximate count distribution. Matrix 10 is calculating by squaring Matrix 9.

MATRIX 10, Pij 2
17.28231	49.11732	39.07409	12.99234	40.09492	64.92457	27.72214051
22.25521	44.3148	38.59263	19.3179	38.38513	54.99141	31.56402393
21.29979	37.99533	34.11247	19.20017	33.58181	46.10587	29.16409438
34.56391	29.85557	33.83149	37.74372	30.89074	29.87392	38.71516512
37.58172	31.49522	36.08354	41.29728	32.83506	31.19573	41.79062645
45.15309	21.86134	31.14655	54.62854	26.56028	17.25943	44.61903517
47.44647	16.22865	27.05232	60.1602	22.08123	10.49434	44.04873673

The total number of counts in this approximation is 1678.582 and that is just the sum of the first two eigenvalues. When two or more amplitudes are used in such an approximation, the act of squaring that converts a count amplitude to a count, results in “interaction” or “interference” among the amplitudes.

If the first three amplitudes are used, then a better approximation of actual counts may be obtained in this instance, as compared to using the first two amplitudes. Matrix 1 1 and FIG. 13 illustrate the count approximation (calculated in a manner similar to Matrix 10) in the case of three amplitudes.

MATRIX 11
19.02519	52.67993	42.42514	11.76286	41.3056	59.3665	25.04734
18.9058	38.51408	32.92687	22.1922	36.29118	64.84111	37.07021
23.07162	40.87885	36.99061	17.81752	34.60067	41.80781	26.63478
31.34457	26.23144	29.77403	40.74552	29.46159	35.39216	43.28619
39.14474	33.24765	38.05504	39.92336	33.50919	28.81366	39.73955
48.16334	24.4491	34.38301	51.88084	27.62426	14.24777	40.94972
46.29128	15.40953	25.93782	61.28356	21.715	11.45763	45.48599

Matrix 11 and FIG. 13 are count approximation in the case of three amplitudes for the actual counts of FIGS. 3 and 4.

One use of the automated algorithms described herein is to update the probability distributions used in a model to forecast future counts. These automated algorithms may make consistent judgments about enormous quantities of numerical data, and may reduce the risk that clerical errors associated with manual update activities may deform the forecast model. Automated introduction of the new data may avoid inappropriate changes in the day of week patterns that are extracted from the data, which may reduce deformation of the forecast model.

Output for this method includes a day of week distribution, in an embodiment. In the case of call-volume, the output is a single (conditional) probability distribution used to describe the probability that a call arrives on a particular day of the week, given that the call arrives sometime that week.

There may be multiple day of week distributions, one corresponding to each week. In an additional embodiment, the extraction of this distribution may take into account that a single day-of-week distribution may be used to represent each week of the month, even though the data may follow different distributions for each week. In some embodiments, an accurate representative distribution may not be a simple average of the day of week data or the distribution for any particular week of the month. Rather, it may depend on co-variation (or correlation) in the data due to the week of the month and the day of the week interactions. For this reason, a kind of singular value decomposition may be used to extract a dominant day-of-week distribution for a month of data.

Computer Architecture

FIG. 14 shows a diagrammatic representation of machine in the example form of a computer system 600 within which a set of instructions, for causing the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies discussed herein, may be executed. In alternative embodiments, the machine operates as a standalone device or may be connected (e.g., networked) to other machines. In a networked deployment, the machine may operate in the capacity of a server or a client machine in server-client network environment, or as a peer machine in a peer-to-peer (or distributed) network environment. The machine may be a personal computer (PC), a tablet PC, a set-top box (STB), a Personal Digital Assistant (PDA), a cellular telephone, a web appliance, a network router, switch or bridge, or any machine capable of executing a set of instructions (sequential or otherwise) that specify actions to be taken by that machine. Further, while only a single machine is illustrated, the term “machine” may also be taken to include any collection of machines that individually or jointly execute a set (or multiple sets) of instructions to perform any one or more of the methodologies discussed herein.

The example computer system 600 includes a processor 602 (e.g., a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU) or both), a main memory 604 and a static memory 606, which communicate with each other via a bus 608. The computer system 600 may further include a video display unit 610 (e.g., a liquid crystal display (LCD) or a cathode ray tube (CRT)). The computer system 600 also includes an alphanumeric input device 612 (e.g., a keyboard), a user interface (UI) navigation device 614 (e.g., a mouse), a disk drive unit 616, a signal generation device 618 (e.g., a speaker) and a network interface device 620.

The disk drive unit 616 includes a machine-readable medium 622 on which is stored one or more sets of instructions and data structures (e.g., software 624) embodying or utilized by any one or more of the methodologies or functions described herein. The software 624 may also reside, completely or at least partially, within the main memory 604 and/or within the processor 602 during execution thereof by the computer system 600, the main memory 604 and the processor 602 also constituting machine-readable media.

The software 624 may further be transmitted or received over a network 626 via the network interface device 620 utilizing any one of a number of well-known transfer protocols (e.g., HTTP).

While the machine-readable medium 622 is shown in an example embodiment to be a single medium, the term “machine-readable medium” may be taken to include a single medium or multiple media (e.g., a centralized or distributed database, and/or associated caches and servers) that store the one or more sets of instructions. The term “machine-readable medium” may also be taken to include any medium that is capable of storing, encoding or carrying a set of instructions for execution by the machine and that cause the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies of the present invention, or that is capable of storing, encoding or carrying data structures utilized by or associated with such a set of instructions. The term “machine-readable medium” may accordingly be taken to include, but not be limited to, solid-state memories, optical and magnetic media, and carrier wave signals. Although an embodiment of the present invention has been described with reference to specific example embodiments, it will be evident that various modifications and changes may be made to these embodiments without departing from the broader spirit and scope of the invention. Accordingly, the specification and drawings are to be regarded in an illustrative rather than a restrictive sense.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method to obtain relative frequency distributions to forecast counts used in worker scheduling, the computer-implemented method comprising: calculating a plurality of square roots of count data associated with a sequence of the plurality of intervals; extracting a number of amplitudes associated with a plurality of count distributions from the calculated plurality of square roots; calculating a number of counts associated with each amplitude over the plurality of intervals; and squaring the extracted number of amplitudes to obtain a corresponding plurality of estimates of relative frequency distributions describing the distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the counts are selected from a group including events, transactions, requests for service, contacts arriving at a system for handling contacts, and arriving customers.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the plurality of intervals are selected from a group including intervals of time, intervals of space, intervals of cyber-space, business abstractions that can be formulated as measurable subsets in a measured space, and subsets in a space of business abstractions, which abstractions are used to at least one of describe, define, and classify different types of counts.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 3 wherein the plurality of intervals are ordered pairs of any two from the group.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein each of the calculated counts of the number of calculated counts includes a total number of counts, due to the respective amplitude, summed over the sequence.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 further comprising normalizing the plurality of estimates of the relative frequency distributions to obtain estimates of probability distributions describing distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 6 wherein normalizing the relative frequency distributions includes dividing each of the numbers of the amplitude by a positive constant to obtain another set of numbers, wherein the numbers of the probability distribution sum to one.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 6 wherein the amplitude is selected to render normalization as substantially dispensable.

9. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 wherein the plurality of intervals are associated with intervals of time and each time interval is of substantially constant duration, wherein each time interval is organized into a same number of blocks.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 wherein squaring the numbers of the amplitude for each interval of a block gives the relative frequency with which counts assigned to that amplitude occur on that interval of a block.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 wherein each time interval is selected from a period of a day, a day, a period of a week, a week, a period of a month, and a month.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 wherein the sequence of the plurality of intervals includes a Cartesian product of two selected from a group including a set of time intervals, a set of locations, and a set of locations in cyber-space, a type of count, a set of types that defines a classification of different kinds of counts, a measurable set in a first measure space and a measurable set in a second measure space.

13. A machine-readable medium storing a sequence of instructions that, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to perform the computer-implemented method of claim 1.

14. A system to obtain relative frequency distributions to forecast counts used in worker scheduling, the system comprising: means for calculating a plurality of square roots of count data associated with a sequence of the plurality of intervals; means for extracting a number of amplitudes associated with a plurality of count distributions from the calculated plurality of square roots; means for calculating a number of counts associated with each amplitude over the plurality of intervals; and means for squaring the extracted number of amplitudes to obtain a corresponding plurality of estimates of relative frequency distributions describing the distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals.

15. The system of claim 14 wherein the means for calculating a number of counts associated with each amplitude includes a solution for an eigenvalue-eigenvector mathematical problem, wherein the means for calculating a plurality of square roots, the means for extracting, the means for calculating a number of counts, and the means for squaring include a probability distribution module.

16. A system to obtain relative frequency distributions to forecast counts used in worker scheduling, the system comprising: a probability distribution module: to calculate a plurality of square roots of count data associated with a sequence of the plurality of intervals; to extract a number of amplitudes associated with a plurality of count distributions from the calculated plurality of square roots; to calculate a number of counts associated with each amplitude over the plurality of intervals; and to square the extracted number of amplitudes to obtain a corresponding plurality of estimates of relative frequency distributions describing the distribution of the calculated number of counts over the plurality of intervals.

17. The system of claim 16 wherein the counts are selected from a group including events, contacts, requests for service, contacts arriving at a system for handling contacts, and arriving customers.

18. The system of claim 16 wherein the plurality of intervals are selected from a group including intervals of time, intervals of space, intervals of cyber-space, business abstractions that can be formulated as measurable subsets in a measured space, and subsets in a space of business abstractions, which abstractions are used to at least one of describe, define, and classify different types of counts.

19. The system of claim 18 wherein the plurality of intervals are ordered pairs of any two from the group.

20. The system of claim 16 wherein each of the calculated counts of the number of calculated counts includes a total number of counts, due to the respective amplitude, summed over the sequence.

21. The system of claim 16 wherein the plurality of intervals are associated with intervals of time and each time interval is of substantially constant duration, wherein each time interval is organized into a same number of blocks.

22. The system of claim 21 wherein the sequence of the plurality of intervals includes a Cartesian product of two selected from a group including a set of time intervals, a set of locations, and a set of locations in cyber-space, a type of count, a set of types that defines a classification of different kinds of counts, a measurable set in a first measure space and a measurable set in a second measure space.